On average

[DolphinFan]

[Garand Hunter]

You got it Bro !

Psalm 1

[tigerpan]

Sounds like the fed going to save a lot money (ssn, Medicare).

[Garand Hunter]

Save WHAT money ? Its just printing press $$. Not real collected tax dollars but just hit the " Print " button a couple of times, no need to actually collect real tax dollars.

Psalm 1

[elSquid]

Graphics showing all cause mortality for this year so far, as well as prior years:

https://episphere.github.io/mortalitytracker/

[Creeping Incrementalism]

Another way to look at it, is that about 0.8% of Americans (all age groups) die every year. So compare that to the mortality rate of this coronavirus, but the big question with that is the non-symptomatic rate.

For working-age people in their 20s - mid 60s, you see pre-corona death rates of 0.1% to 1.5% and COVID infection fatality estimates of around 0.001% to 0.1%

Either way, you add up all the other reasons you are likely to die in a year, and those people who delayed their summer plans by one year, are more likely to die of something else and never have that summer experience again, than they were to have their fun summer and die from catching the coronavirus while out partying.

Here are US actuarial tables. Keep in mind death is expressed as a value from 0 to 1, not a percentage, so multiply by 100 to get percent. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1

[toro1]

Graphics showing all cause mortality for this year so far, as well as prior years:

https://episphere.github.io/mortalitytracker/

Larger bump in excess deaths is COVID, interesting question is “how many deaths have been time shifted ‘earlier’?”

Example: the person that died of COVID now, would they have died from something else over the next year? ( flu, end stage cancer, etc )

If there is a noticeable drop in excess deaths - well below average - later this year/early next year, that may have been the case.

— Michael

Do you know where suicides are on the graph? My fairly quick review does not show them captured in any of the categories unless it is in the unclassified, but the descriptor doesn't make a lot of sense.

[elSquid]

Do you know where suicides are on the graph? My fairly quick review does not show them captured in any of the categories unless it is in the unclassified, but the descriptor doesn't make a lot of sense.

It's a good question. I didn't know, so I did a quick google.

This is a link to the underlying dataset:

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6

It looks like it doesn't explicitly call out suicides ( or accidental deaths, or murder, etc ).

Basically it looks like there is an indirect calculation to be made:

( all cause deaths ) - ( natural cause deaths ) = "unnatural cause death" ?

And that's about as much as can seemingly be gleaned from the dataset.

The second graph on the mortality tracker page ( "mortality context" ) graphs both all cause and natural cause deaths, so the delta between the two can be easily seen, though of limited practical utility.

CDC has a suicide page:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/suicide.htm

But the most recent data is a couple years ago.

No idea why this is the case.

-- Michael

[toro1]

It's a good question. I didn't know, so I did a quick google.

This is a link to the underlying dataset:

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6

It looks like it doesn't explicitly call out suicides ( or accidental deaths, or murder, etc ).

Basically it looks like there is an indirect calculation to be made:

( all cause deaths ) - ( natural cause deaths ) = "unnatural cause death" ?

And that's about as much as can seemingly be gleaned from the dataset.

The second graph on the mortality tracker page ( "mortality context" ) graphs both all cause and natural cause deaths, so the delta between the two can be easily seen, though of limited practical utility.

CDC has a suicide page:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/suicide.htm

But the most recent data is a couple years ago.

No idea why this is the case.

-- Michael

Thanks and there seems to be no suicide data available for 2020 which seems odd. Clearly, the death certificates that are going to the CDC will have info on suicides so it should be captured somewhere.

[toro1]

If you go to the original link elsquid posted and view the graph on the unclassified deaths, it shows a very clear increase of deaths. It starts in late Jan and is roughly 50% higher than past years, and then in early April it takes a sharp upturn and has continued to rise to where it is ~6x the historical at the end of July.

If suicides are in this group, it shows the magnitude of the suicide problem going on and could easily explain the recent rise in the CDC excess death count.