NY Winning?

[harbormaster]

SO I was a firm believer that protests / riots and looting helped spread some chicom virals around - creating round two. But NY had lots of that and their numbers are not what the opening states of FL, Texas, AZ and even us in CA are despite them being #1 through wave one? So how is NY winning and the rest not so much?

[theLBC]

new york was better at killing people that got it early on, and kept a lot of the spread isolated to vulnerable nursing homes?

[duenor]

NY got hit hard. You'll be hard pressed to find anyone, especially in Bronx or Queens, refusing to wear masks. Seeing lines of sick people stretching around the block waiting to be seen by a doctor, and six hour waits to buy a one bag limit of food will do that to a population. Yes, a lot of their elderly got hammered. But I would say a big part of why their numbers are much better than cities like LA is that the people, top to bottom, have seen the virus up close and personal. It's not some nebulous thing far away. Walk into a grocery store in Flushing refusing to wear and a mask and the entire store will run you out, with the owner probably banning you. Same goes for customers - a store pretending nothing is wrong will shortly have business to worry about.

[duenor]

Top to bottom: Stores implementing their own improvised disinfection procedures. What NY street in Queens looks like after reopening - dated June 8. Bottom: police barricades used to create lines as people sick or suspected sick wait to be seen at the hospital during the crisis.

[smashycrashy]

SO I was a firm believer that protests / riots and looting helped spread some chicom virals around - creating round two. But NY had lots of that and their numbers are not what the opening states of FL, Texas, AZ and even us in CA are despite them being #1 through wave one? So how is NY winning and the rest not so much?

The majority.. by far.. of people did not participate in protests. It also had a suppressive effect on people who might have gone out during the time but didn't do so because of curfews and the like. So it is still an open question how much effect protests had on virus spread.

Re-opening too quickly (relatively low community spread relative to the population but starting everything back up) or too soon (high base level of spread but plateaued but stepping loosening restrictions anyways) and time spent while re-opened in air conditioning (closed environments) seem to be significant factors.

Nobody is publishing median time to result for tests.. I have a theory that the places that are doing better have a low median time along with significant tracing to break the transmission chains. California is doing a lot of tests.. but anecdotal they appear to be low quality (long time for results) so we never got our cases under control before starting to open back up. Arizona/Texas/Georgia/Florida weren't doing that bad but really opened up and now they have a high infected base to keep the infections going. Minor mitigation measures won't get it under control in places where that is happening.

There is the right way and the wrong way to do this, people seem to be determined to do it the wrong way for whatever reason.

[duenor]

The majority.. by far.. of people did not participate in protests. It also had a suppressive effect on people who might have gone out during the time but didn't do so because of curfews and the like. So it is still an open question how much effect protests had on virus spread.

Re-opening too quickly (relatively low community spread relative to the population but starting everything back up) or too soon (high base level of spread but plateaued but stepping loosening restrictions anyways) and time spent while re-opened in air conditioning (closed environments) seem to be significant factors.

Nobody is publishing median time to result for tests.. I have a theory that the places that are doing better have a low median time along with significant tracing to break the transmission chains. California is doing a lot of tests.. but anecdotal they appear to be low quality (long time for results) so we never got our cases under control before starting to open back up. Arizona/Texas/Georgia/Florida weren't doing that bad but really opened up and now they have a high infected base to keep the infections going. Minor mitigation measures won't get it under control in places where that is happening.

There is the right way and the wrong way to do this, people seem to be determined to do it the wrong way for whatever reason.

I really dont understand why it takes so long for results to come back in CA. even in the hospital it takes 3 days. why? there's clearly a bottleneck somewhere, and it's making contact tracing next to useless because there's too much of a time delay.

in each of the six people that I know who've become infected, each of them suspected they might be, went to get tested, then had a -really- hard time convincing themselves that they should self quarantine. it's just human nature, i guess - we want to believe we are fine, especially if we don't "feel sick". one of them went to a bachelorette party in TN and now 60+ people need to get tested (each of the girls went home, bingo).

if it's like 24 hours or 48 hours, people might self quanrtine effectively. but if it's like 5-7 days, it's very hard for them to do so.

[PogoJack]

New York has 30,000 covid deaths. Arizona has 2,000 and Texas has 3,000.

New York is winning?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[balgor]

New York has 30,000 covid deaths. Arizona has 2,000 and Texas has 3,000.

New York is winning?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

NY is certainly winning recently and right now, while AZ and TX are currently on an accelerating losing streak.

[harbormaster]

overall correct right now not so much

Correct over all NY is a loser and lost a long time ago (weeks). Now, right now, however they are not getting a 2nd wave, not having 5k/10k new cases a day like CA and the southern States of TX and FL. Right now they are winning. I didn't expect that in light of their protests. It doesn't support "my" narrative that the protests caused the 2nd wave.

New York has 30,000 covid deaths. Arizona has 2,000 and Texas has 3,000.

New York is winning?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[golfrj]

"They" are afraid to go outdoors at all, my Granddaughter lives in the Bronx and refuses to leave the apartment...

[duenor]

"They" are afraid to go outdoors at all, my Granddaughter lives in the Bronx and refuses to leave the apartment...

I have a lot of family in NYC (my family has roots in NY dating back to the 19th century). The fear that ran rampant in April (IIRC) was absolute nuts. People in LA have no idea what it was line. Barren shelves, supermarkets closed because employees refused to come in to work, people wearing plastic bags around their bodies and heads - look at those pictures of hundreds of people lined up to get into the ER and you tell me you wouldn't be shaken. So, now, even though I've been told that the incoming patients are way down, people are still scared.

Sosuke and I were discussing reasons why in another thread. In addition to the still palpable fear, it may be that all the easy pickings already got picked. I've been posting about an SNF that I've been personally involved with, just as a single point of reference. June 11 there were 2. By July 5 it was 27, 32, 7 (staff infected/residents infected/dead) - IIRC. Today it is:Sierra View Care Center Baldwin Park, CA 39 73 11

This virus just goes crazy in captive populations. Prisons, Nursing Homes - and yes, probably would do the same in schools, too. So it may be that all the old ones are dead, the young are recovered, and we are just left with the 40-60 age group that is rolling the dice each time.