Is there a 20% infection effect?

[Sousuke]

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-it-be-burning-out-after-20-of-a-population-is-infected-141584

I've seen this mentioned over the last week and it made me compare California to New York.

California locked down ahead of NY, so in April it never saw New Yorks numbers. Yet the state maintained a stubborn plateau through May and early June before rising again.

NY on the other hand had their numbers crash back to the ground and as they are reopening no resurgence is being seen.

I cannot image that NY vs CA lockdowns were all that different, so what is the difference? Could it be that once an area gets hit with 10 to 20 percent infections, there is an element of resistance? Could it be that the most mobile groups end up getting it at such a rate that herd immunity begins to take place in their sub group?

Secondary to this - what if 60% of the population is already immune to some degree (looking at asymptomatic carriers) and therefore once a certain extra percentage acquires immunity, we start to get to an overall 70% much quicker that previously thought.

[SAN compnerd]

https://theconversation.com/coronavi...nfected-141584

I've seen this mentioned over the last week and it made me compare California to New York.

California locked down ahead of NY, so in April it never saw New Yorks numbers. Yet the state maintained a stubborn plateau through May and early June before rising again.

NY on the other hand had their numbers crash back to the ground and as they are reopening no resurgence is being seen.

I cannot image that NY vs CA lockdowns were all that different, so what is the difference? Could it be that once an area gets hit with 10 to 20 percent infections, there is an element of resistance? Could it be that the most mobile groups end up getting it at such a rate that herd immunity begins to take place in their sub group?

This is exactly what happened on the cruise ship in Japan, after a month of being on the ship only 20% of the people got the wuflu.

Makes sense.

[sd_shooter]

New York effectively became like Italy and Sweden. NY was too late and virus became a brush fire. It burned through the available fuel (old and weak.)

Western states slowed down the virus a little and now we'll have a longer curve.

Regardless, no more lockdowns, let's tear off the bandaid.