How are we doing with respect to herd immunity?

[cleonard]

I guess this only matters if immunity lasts after recovery, but we are starting to get to significant numbers. To start with I'll be using the CDC estimate that actual infections are ten times the testing numbers. What does that give us?

In the whole US we have 2.5 million tested positive. Add 10x to that and we have at least 25 million. It's a significant dent in the minimum of 150 million that we need to reach herd immunity. At the rate we are going we will get there in about two months. Perhaps less since infections seem to be increasing.

In some localities it is even more and those places will get past the virus quicker. Other places like say Idaho have barely even had a first wave so it will hang longer.

Anyway, the worse it is case wise, the brighter and closer that light at the end of the tunnel is.

[balgor]

The CDC 10X estimate is almost certainly currently wrong now. Those numbers are probably ballpark for late March and early April.

The 10X number is from testing at 6 sites at various dates. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...b-surveys.html

Most of the collection was done at the end of March and early April with the most recent one done in early May when our testing levels were abysmal. The 10% detection rate of actual cases was probably correct then, we have greatly expanded testing capacity since then so we are almost certainly detecting a higher percentage of cases now.

They used blood from people who had blood tests done at doctor's offices, so it's not a random population sample. A sample of people seeking health case is almost certainly oversampling people with infections.

The 6 sites are not generalizable to the US population.

[M1NM]

The Chinese created a real oddball with the WuFlu. We still don't know if true herd immunity can be achieved and recent outbreaks in China again seem it indicate it won't.

[Sousuke]

The CDC 10X is almost certainly currently wrong now. Those numbers are probably ballpark for late March and early April.

The 10X number is from testing at 6 sites at various dates. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...b-surveys.html

Most of the collection was done at the end of March and early April with the most recent one done in early May when our testing levels were abysmal. The 10% detection rate of actual cases was probably correct then, we have greatly expanded testing capacity since then so we are almost certainly detecting a higher percentage of cases now.

They used blood from people who had blood tests done at doctor's offices, so it's not a random population sample. A sample of people seeking health case is almost certainly oversampling people with infections.

The 6 sites are not generalizable to the US population.

The CDC has said 10x as recently as Friday:

https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-true-coronavirus-count-likely-ten-times-higher-2020-6

[MJB]

I can't believe the world hasn't come down on China, their silence is telling!

They want to take over the world at any cost

[balgor]

The CDC has said 10x as recently as Friday:

https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-...-higher-2020-6

Read what I wrote:

Most of the collection was done at the end of March and early April with the most recent one done in early May when our testing levels were abysmal. The 10% detection rate of actual cases was probably correct then, we have greatly expanded testing capacity since then so we are almost certainly detecting a higher percentage of cases now.

Those estimates are based on data from March/April and a tiny sliver of the beginning of May. They are not reflective of current conditions.

[orangeglo]

I guess this only matters if immunity lasts after recovery, but we are starting to get to significant numbers. To start with I'll be using the CDC estimate that actual infections are ten times the testing numbers. What does that give us?

In the whole US we have 2.5 million tested positive. Add 10x to that and we have at least 25 million. It's a significant dent in the minimum of 150 million that we need to reach herd immunity. At the rate we are going we will get there in about two months. Perhaps less since infections seem to be increasing.

In some localities it is even more and those places will get past the virus quicker. Other places like say Idaho have barely even had a first wave so it will hang longer.

Anyway, the worse it is case wise, the brighter and closer that light at the end of the tunnel is.

Using the numbers above in bold:

We would need ~2,008,196 infected every single day for 2 months to reach 150m.
We would need ~335,616 infected every single day for 1 year to reach 150m.
We would need ~111,872 infected every single day for 3 years to reach 150m.