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Here were the 6 Criteria outlined about a week and a half ago. So where are we?
1.The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
2. The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
3. The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;
4. The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
5. The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
6. The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.
Ok so number 1. Newsom wants 60,000 tests a day. He says we will hit 25,000 soon. Stats are showing we had 235,584 over the last 7 days, so we are actually already up to 33,654 a day right now. We should be hitting this metric within the next couple weeks.
Number 2. Hate to say it, this is a lost cause now. Over half of assisted living homes seem to have at least a few infections. The obvious answer is to self isolate staff WITH the residents but I've noticed the state is failing here. At this point Number 2 can never be attained.
Number 3. Newsom said he needs to see 2 weeks of ICU numbers dropping. General hospital and ICU numbers peaked on April 21st. We are now 6 days in to this so we should hit this metric in 8 days.
Number 4. This is a false criteria. I watched as a few doctors laughed at this - there is no guarantee that ANY therapeutics will work.
Number 5. Clearly open businesses are already managing this, so with the exception of schools which will remain until the fall anyway, this criteria has been met.
Number 6. Easy, your data will lag 10 to 14 days( based on infection timescale ). So you make each phase decision in 10 to 14 day increments. Next.
Anyway the only two usable metrics that haven't been met are one and three. Unsure about 1, but we are trending faster than predicted, and 3. which is 8 days away.
1.The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
2. The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
3. The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;
4. The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
5. The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
6. The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.
Ok so number 1. Newsom wants 60,000 tests a day. He says we will hit 25,000 soon. Stats are showing we had 235,584 over the last 7 days, so we are actually already up to 33,654 a day right now. We should be hitting this metric within the next couple weeks.
Number 2. Hate to say it, this is a lost cause now. Over half of assisted living homes seem to have at least a few infections. The obvious answer is to self isolate staff WITH the residents but I've noticed the state is failing here. At this point Number 2 can never be attained.
Number 3. Newsom said he needs to see 2 weeks of ICU numbers dropping. General hospital and ICU numbers peaked on April 21st. We are now 6 days in to this so we should hit this metric in 8 days.
Number 4. This is a false criteria. I watched as a few doctors laughed at this - there is no guarantee that ANY therapeutics will work.
Number 5. Clearly open businesses are already managing this, so with the exception of schools which will remain until the fall anyway, this criteria has been met.
Number 6. Easy, your data will lag 10 to 14 days( based on infection timescale ). So you make each phase decision in 10 to 14 day increments. Next.
Anyway the only two usable metrics that haven't been met are one and three. Unsure about 1, but we are trending faster than predicted, and 3. which is 8 days away.
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