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Calling it now, covid is over! (But not the hoax)

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  • #16
    Wherryj
    I need a LIFE!!
    • Mar 2010
    • 11085

    Originally posted by as_rocketman
    I'm familiar with all of the antibody evidence, and it does not support that conclusion.

    Your second paragraph is an apples-to-oranges comparison. "Confirmed tested mortality rate of the annual flu" is hardly useful, since the conditions for testing the flu are radically different than COVID-19. I shouldn't have to explain that your quoted rate of 10% is wildly misleading, and it is obvious you chose that on purpose.

    To actually compare mortality rate, you need to estimate either CFR (Case Fatality Rate) or IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) and control for differences in the measurement. The yearly flu is something we have experience with and its estimate is thus pretty stable, estimated CFR at < 0.1%. COVID-19 is new and will take some time to estimate, but we can put some bounds on it -- current studies are predicting a 1.4% CFR, and if we restrict to European countries only, rates vary between 0.4% and 4.4%.

    Your complaint about undetected cases (c.f. the antibody studies) does not impact CFR, but does impact IFR. For the flu, IFR is estimated at 0.04%. Taking New York City as the simplest example, even if we make the conservative assumption that penetrance is 100% (actual estimates are ~20% per your own sources, and could be lower), there have been 16,600 fatalities as of today, with 158,000 known cases still open... out of a population of 8.4 million. This gives us a lower bound of 0.2%, and we haven't even turned the corner yet.

    As I said, your statement is not supported by ANY evidence. You may wish to reexamine your choices accordingly.
    This is something that the media either doesn't understand or uses to distort the numbers. Their reported rate of "death from flu" is SUSPECTED flu cases/deaths from flu (and there's no incentive to code a death from something else as the flu). That yields about 0.01%.

    They then compare that to CONFIRMED SARS-COV-2 infections/suspected deaths from Covid-19 (and there is a BIG financial and political incentive to inflate the cases). This yields the "around 1%" sorts of numbers.

    To give them credit, there's no way to do a suspected Coronavirus infection rate because this is the first year, and we've had decades of flu seasons showing about 10% of the country gets infect4ed. If, however, you use the closest comparison of CONFIRMED flu cases/flu deaths (remember, the criteria for diagnosing it as a flu death are a bit more strict and there's no incentive to inflate the numbers), we get an annual rate of 10% deaths from flu.

    For those claiming that Covid-19 is "much more deadly", the data so far don't seem to support this. While there may be some extra lethality to people with certain pre-existing conditions, that happens with influenza as well. The difference is that we aren't being told about EVERY SINGLE INFECTION AND DEATH like we are with coronavirus. The difference seems to primarily be selection bias.

    This is much like the "flesh-eating virus" outbreak a bit over a decade back. Aside from the fact that it was neither flesh-eating nor a virus, the thing that might surprise some is that the incidence that year was exactly the same as it was for the 6 plus decades of information on hand, and it turns out no different than the decade plus since. The only difference was that media drew attention to every single case and made it seem to be a huge increase. Does this sound familiar to anyone ("mass shootings', etc.)?
    "What is a moderate interpretation of the text? Halfway between what it really means and what you'd like it to mean?"
    -Antonin Scalia, Supreme Court Justice
    "Know guns, know peace, know safety. No guns, no peace, no safety.
    I like my guns like the left likes their voters-"undocumented".

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    • #17
      LBDamned
      I need a LIFE!!
      • Feb 2011
      • 19040

      Originally posted by Wherryj
      It would be FAR less expensive if we would just stop being cheap on our healthcare reimbursements to providers. THAT was what the concern was about, overwhelming the system so that the people who could be saved wouldn't get treatment and we'd have more deaths.

      Yet I suspect that the country will continue to reimburse physicians and hospitals at or below the cost to provide the service. This is done because other groups such as pharmaceuticals (which aren't being reimbursed at ludicrous levels either) have more bargaining power, and can actually collectively bargain without committing a felony.

      Anyone care to wage on whether this gets "fixed" after this lesson? It would be a lot less expensive to make it so that providers aren't always having to provide more care than is possible during the busy times of the year so that hey aren't carrying too much "unused capacity" during slower times-causing bankruptcy.
      If someone shows up to ER or Urgent Care and it's not an emergency or needing immediately critical care - do not admit them.

      They wont do that, but should.

      People using critical care services for a runny nose or sprained ankle need to learn not to bog down the system.
      "Kamala is a radical leftist lunatic" ~ Donald J. Trump

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      • #18
        surfdesigner
        CGN/CGSSA Contributor
        CGN Contributor
        • Dec 2014
        • 206

        Sweden, no lockdown and same infection and death rates

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        • #19
          Doheny
          I need a LIFE!!
          • Sep 2008
          • 13820

          Originally posted by sd_shooter
          Calling it now, covid is over! (But not the hoax)
          IMG_3244.JPG
          Sent from Free America

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          • #20
            FireCloud9
            Senior Member
            • Jun 2015
            • 792

            Originally posted by SanDiego619
            Lower mortality rate than the flu. Panic all you want - we destroyed the economy for a virus that's milder than the flu. Because orange man bad.
            You'll see the Flu on the list in the link below.



            Thus far, in ~4 months:

            United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.


            That's WITH

            - Stay at Home orders
            - Social Distancing
            - Wearing PPE
            - Hand washing campaign

            sigpic

            U.S. Army SGT 3ID 1st BN 30th IN Veteran DAV '84-'88 (Germany) | G43, P99C, PPS / PPQ M1 (Classic), HK P2000

            War Is a Racket by Two-time Medal of Honor recipient, USMC MG Smedley Butler

            Best Place to Retire

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            • #21
              Transient
              Senior Member
              • Jan 2020
              • 792

              Originally posted by FireCloud9
              You'll see the Flu on the list in the link below.







              Thus far, in ~4 months:



              United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




              That's WITH



              - Stay at Home orders

              - Social Distancing

              - Wearing PPE

              - Hand washing campaign
              Link 1 isn't worth paying attention to until thr end odd the day on 12/31

              Link 2 makes me think the outcomes tally hasn't been tracked that well

              Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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