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Total Pop: 122,243 (2019 census)
>65: ~23.61% (~28,311 assuming all recorded pensioners are >65)
Possible COVID deaths (In March): ~2,060 - 4,500
According to the study by data analysis firm InTwig, whose findings were published in local daily L’Eco di Bergamo, about 4,500 people have died from COVID-19 in March around the northern city of Bergamo. That is more than double the official data of 2,060 deaths provided by Italy’s Civil Protection Department.
Now, since there are a number of threads saying that "COVID is an old person's disease, re-open the economy!!!" we are going to humor them and attribute all the recorded deaths as an old person's disease. If you want to claim COVID is also a young person's disease, feel free to adjust the death numbers.
In March:
(4500/28311) x100% = 16.0%
(2060/28311) x100% = 7.30%Last edited by HibikiR; 04-22-2020, 10:10 PM.Comment
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Flu is not over until ~50-70% of the population gets immunity from having it or from vaccines. A that point there is the herd immunity and the flu can not sustain itself.
Since there is no vaccine, by my calculations with the government intervention in flattening the curve....it will take 10 years to get to that point at current infection rates.
The government should be working on maxing out our health care system to the highest rate of flu sustainable to get this hump over with.
Else we maybe saving up to 2 million Amercians, and maybe 30 million humans from this flu while creating the greatest depression with the largest famine, unrest, and wars that kills hundreds of millions.
As Pelosi said-if it just saves one life now-even though it kills 20 lives later-it is worth it because that way we can vote the Donald out of office by destroying the economy!Comment
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The numbers of deaths you are using are from the bergamo province, while the number of people you are using is from bergamo city. The 65+ population number you should be using to figure the % is 234,053. Even if you figure using the wild guess newspaper "study" figure of 4500 deaths and attribute them all to 65+ that comes out to 1.9% of ALL residents over 65.Total Pop: 122,243 (2019 census)
>65: ~23.61% (~28,311 assuming all recorded pensioners are >65)
Possible COVID deaths (In March): ~2,060 - 4,500
Now, since there are a number of threads saying that "COVID is an old person's disease, re-open the economy!!!" we are going to humor them and attribute all the recorded deaths as an old person's disease. If you want to claim COVID is also a young person's disease, feel free to adjust the death numbers.
In March:
(4500/28311) x100% = 16.0%
(2060/28311) x100% = 7.30%Last edited by Hoooper; 04-23-2020, 8:08 AM.Comment
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Dude, I highlighted the article's specific mention of the "city of Bergamo". To further the point, they emphasize the difference to the official number for the city. That means the Bergamo province could be >6000.
The only difference is who made the tally, a data analysis firm or Italy's Civil Protection Department. We know from New York City and China that governments can lie.According to the study by data analysis firm InTwig, whose findings were published in local daily L’Eco di Bergamo, about 4,500 people have died from COVID-19 in March around the northern city of Bergamo. That is more than double the official data of 2,060 deaths provided by Italy’s Civil Protection Department.Last edited by HibikiR; 04-23-2020, 8:40 AM.Comment
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You highlighted half of the useful information. You missed a rather important part.
So use the inflated numbers. 4,500 deaths, all over 65. Population that is distributed amongst is 234,053. The % of deaths in Bergamo for the entire 65+ population is 1.9%. You can find a bunch of articles that make this very clear.
Bergamo, the most infected province in Italy, has had 9,712 confirmed cases and 2,245 deaths according to the official data. An investigation by the Eco di Bergamo newspaper estimates that in Bergamo province alone the virus killed 4,500 people in March.
The grim suggestion points to the potential death toll for the province of 1.1 million people sitting at 4,500, according to the researchers, compared to Bergamo's official count of 2,060.Comment
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"What is a moderate interpretation of the text? Halfway between what it really means and what you'd like it to mean?"
-Antonin Scalia, Supreme Court Justice
"Know guns, know peace, know safety. No guns, no peace, no safety.
I like my guns like the left likes their voters-"undocumented".Comment
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No second spike in Italy, virus is done
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