NYC: 1 in 1000 have died of of COVID-19

[zhyla]

New York City has about 9 million people and now has a little over 10k dead. Now, before you start casting doubt on how many of those 10k are actually, really due to Coronavirus I want you to consider something.

NYC has on average a little over [url=https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/vital_statistics/2017/table31a.htm]150k deaths per year] or about 12.5k deaths per month. Of those about half are heart disease and cancer. And about 19k dead of all causes in the one-month period of 3/11/20 thru 4/13/20.

You can argue some of those 10k COVID-19 deaths would have died without Coronavirus. There's no doubt about that. The question is how many? I'm gleaning from the above numbers that at least 2/3 of the COVID-19 deaths are COVID-19. Does not sound like a "nothingburger" to me, but you do the math for yourself.

[five.five-six]

You might also ask how many people died at home from heart attack and stroke because they were to afraid to go in for treatment because of the rona but would have survived with treatment.


It’s a complex computation to be sure.

[speedrrracer]

Fortunately, in NYC alone there are approximately 10,000 live births per month!

Happy Birthday to all you new New Yawkers!

[Hamsterbear]

If it's YOU that die, then it's 100%

[capo]

New York City has about 9 million people and now has a little over 10k dead. Now, before you start casting doubt on how many of those 10k are actually, really due to Coronavirus I want you to consider something.

NYC has on average a little over [url=https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/vital_statistics/2017/table31a.htm]150k deaths per year] or about 12.5k deaths per month. Of those about half are heart disease and cancer. And about 19k dead of all causes in the one-month period of 3/11/20 thru 4/13/20.

You can argue some of those 10k COVID-19 deaths would have died without Coronavirus. There's no doubt about that. The question is how many? I'm gleaning from the above numbers that at least 2/3 of the COVID-19 deaths are COVID-19. Does not sound like a "nothingburger" to me, but you do the math for yourself.

You look at per capita deaths when you have something everyone has a roughly equal chance of dying from, things like heart disease, cancer or in this era automotive accidents. An emerging infectious disease which massive mitigation efforts are being taken to prevent exposure to doesn't fit that paradigm.

It'd be like looking at per capita automotive deaths in 1900 as compared to 2000 (0.05 per 100,000 and 14.86 per 100,000 respectively) and concluding vehicles must have been nearly 300 times safer to travel in at the turn of the 20th century. Rather the rate of deaths went up because almost nobody ever got in a car in 1900 vs. 2000. A statistic which combines multiple, often inversely correlated factors becomes meaningless.

Not taking into account the impact of mitigation efforts will tend to make people think a lower per capita death rate translates into a less deadly disease rather than more success with mitigation. We already have enough examples of that poorly contrived argument here.

[freespool]

But that means every soul there has already been infected, right? =0.1% infection fatality rate, no worse than the flu.

[RobinGoodfellow]

NYC is an Outlier

New York City has about 9 million people and now has a little over 10k dead. Now, before you start casting doubt on how many of those 10k are actually, really due to Coronavirus I want you to consider something.

NYC has on average a little over [url=https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/vital_statistics/2017/table31a.htm]150k deaths per year] or about 12.5k deaths per month. Of those about half are heart disease and cancer. And about 19k dead of all causes in the one-month period of 3/11/20 thru 4/13/20.

You can argue some of those 10k COVID-19 deaths would have died without Coronavirus. There's no doubt about that. The question is how many? I'm gleaning from the above numbers that at least 2/3 of the COVID-19 deaths are COVID-19. Does not sound like a "nothingburger" to me, but you do the math for yourself.

New York City is a statistical outlier. Compare the rest of the country.

Total US has 127 deaths per million population (that includes NYC).

NYC alone has 1739 deaths per million population (based on Johns Hopkins Dashboard 4/20 at 2:38 pacific time and Wikipedia population estimate of 8.4 million people).

New York city has a lot going against it:
1) much travel between Italy and NYC
2) dense population
3) most travel on subways, buses, and taxis
4) "Hug an Asian"

[bigbossman]

You can argue some of those 10k COVID-19 deaths would have died without Coronavirus.

You can also argue that a lot of COVID-19 unrelated deaths are being counted as COVID-19 related. About 4,000 or so, in fact.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/health/us-coronavirus-deaths-trends-wednesday/index.html

"New York City's Health Department said Tuesday it is now reporting "probable" Covid-19 deaths of individuals who have not been tested for the coronavirus but are presumed to be positive. The 4,059 probable cases pushed the death toll in New York City to nearly 11,000 victims."

[freespool]

NY is strange, but per capita makes it look worse. Per capita is misleading until disease has run its course. Rate of expansion isn't dependent on population, just seeding incidents and local kinetics (density, social habits, whatever). Per capita makes the small pop look worse under identical kinetics.

[gwanghoops]

yep, no more deaths should be occurring as everyone in NYC is infected and should be isolated like "Escape from New York".

[M1NM]

Not enough - let's keep it going. I'd be happy to see this, NYC has no redeeming qualities.

[duenor]

Not enough - let's keep it going. I'd be happy to see this, NYC has no redeeming qualities.
[ATTACH]891382[/ATTACH]

You realize these are your fellow Americans? Men, women, children?

[tenemae]

You realize these are your fellow Americans? Men, women, children?

If they're going to #NotMyPresident, I'm going to #NotMyCountrymen

Borders don't unite us. Culture and ideals do. This country was torn apart decades ago.

[SW1917]

You can also argue that a lot of COVID-19 unrelated deaths are being counted as COVID-19 related. About 4,000 or so, in fact.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/health/us-coronavirus-deaths-trends-wednesday/index.html

"New York City's Health Department said Tuesday it is now reporting "probable" Covid-19 deaths of individuals who have not been tested for the coronavirus but are presumed to be positive. The 4,059 probable cases pushed the death toll in New York City to nearly 11,000 victims."

"unrelated deaths" and you know there unrelated how -I find it hard to believe they picked 4,000 random deaths to count. Didn't those 4,000 have symptoms of the virus?

[tozan]

Not enough - let's keep it going. I'd be happy to see this, NYC has no redeeming qualities.
[ATTACH]891382[/ATTACH]

You do know a lot of Americans feel that way about California too.