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These folks from MIT have done some pretty solid research into why the virus spread so much in NYC and their conclusions are interesting in the sense that the reaction in this case probably made things worse.
Edit:
In other words, if they had not cut the schedules, the abiltiy to social distance would have been better and resulted in less spread, or at least that's the theory.
It's a PDF doc in the link.
New York City’s multitentacled subway system was a major disseminator – if not the principal
transmission vehicle – of coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic
that became evident throughout the city during March 2020. The near shutoff of subway ridership
in Manhattan – down by over 90 percent at the end of March – correlates strongly with the
substantial increase in the doubling time of new cases in this borough. Maps of subway station
turnstile entries, superimposed upon zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are
strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation. Local train lines appear to have a
higher propensity to transmit infection than express lines. Reciprocal seeding of infection appears
to be the best explanation for the emergence of a single hotspot in Midtown West in Manhattan.
Bus hubs may have served as secondary transmission routes out to the periphery of the city.
transmission vehicle – of coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic
that became evident throughout the city during March 2020. The near shutoff of subway ridership
in Manhattan – down by over 90 percent at the end of March – correlates strongly with the
substantial increase in the doubling time of new cases in this borough. Maps of subway station
turnstile entries, superimposed upon zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are
strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation. Local train lines appear to have a
higher propensity to transmit infection than express lines. Reciprocal seeding of infection appears
to be the best explanation for the emergence of a single hotspot in Midtown West in Manhattan.
Bus hubs may have served as secondary transmission routes out to the periphery of the city.
In other words, if they had not cut the schedules, the abiltiy to social distance would have been better and resulted in less spread, or at least that's the theory.
It's a PDF doc in the link.
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