The actual stats

[johnireland]

Today at 1:48 PM
Current stats. 1.2 million confirmed cases worldwide with 66,000 deaths. That's a 6% death rate. If we consider that there are at least another 1.2 million unreported cases for various reasons...that is a 3% death rate. If we use the 2.400,000 world wide cases in a population of 7 billion, we get a miniscule fraction of less than 1 percent of the global population infections and death rate. Yes every death is sad to someone. And the economic damage done to the world is greater than the loss of life.

NY State stats: as of right now...and I rounded the numbers up quite generously.
125,000 cases...3500 deaths. That's 3% deaths. Obviously being sick isn't "dying"...and that is just reported cases.
New York State population 19,850,000. Known infection rate is 6/10ths of 1 percent. Deaths as a % population 2/100ths of 1%.

The deaths do not warrant shutting the country down.

[snapsound]

Today at 1:48 PM
Current stats. 1.2 million confirmed cases worldwide with 66,000 deaths. That's a 6% death rate. If we consider that there are at least another 1.2 million unreported cases for various reasons...that is a 3% death rate. If we use the 2.400,000 world wide cases in a population of 7 billion, we get a miniscule fraction of less than 1 percent of the global population infections and death rate. Yes every death is sad to someone. And the economic damage done to the world is greater than the loss of life.

NY State stats: as of right now...and I rounded the numbers up quite generously.
125,000 cases...3500 deaths. That's 3% deaths. Obviously being sick isn't "dying"...and that is just reported cases.
New York State population 19,850,000. Known infection rate is 6/10ths of 1 percent. Deaths as a % population 2/100ths of 1%.

The deaths do not warrant shutting the country down.

36 million people got the flu last year in the USA alone.

If this virus is as contagious, you'll get just as many, but its not, its more contagious.

If this virus has the same mortality rate, you'll get as many deaths, but its not, its maybe 5 times higher at 0.5% with hospitalization.

Combine both, you get exponentially more people infected, with the healthcare system overwhelmed, bumping the 0.5% mortality rate to 3%. Thats millions dead. Not hard to get to that if you just let things run their course.

Your marking out of 2.4 million cases versus world population is a data point for April 4th. Two weeks ago the number of reported cases was 10 times less. What do you think happens in two more weeks?

Its not the deaths-to-date that are shutting things down, its the future deaths from not shutting things down.

[SW1917]

"The deaths do not warrant shutting the country down. "
At what death rate would you or not at all?

[jglabe]

You guys are presenting these numbers like they are facts.... Go to this website:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

estimatesestimates

[Sgt. J Beezy]

[tundraboomer]

These are estimates..... ESTIMATES!!!!!!!!! Let that sink in.....

I agree. Estimates, even when calculated by academic snobs, are highly suspect, incredibly unreliable, and rarely un-politicized.

[jglabe]

I agree. Estimates, even when calculated by academic snobs, are highly suspect, incredibly unreliable, and rarely un-politicized.

Is anyone here aware of this? I am surprised at how many blindly follow their shepherd..... we are all doomed..... eventually!

[SW1917]

The reality won't set in until THEY die -everything else is seen as a hoax

[axhoaxho]

Book Club recommendation of the day:

[Steve1968LS2]

Today at 1:48 PM
Current stats. 1.2 million confirmed cases worldwide with 66,000 deaths. That's a 6% death rate.

Wow.. please put down the keyboard and step AWAY from the science..

Comments like this make my head hurt.. sorry..

[snapsound]

If you know you did X number of tests and X number of those people tested positive, and then X died, you can make some very reasonable extrapolations that get you into the double digit millions of infections required to produce those positive tests.

If the virus wasn't contagious enough to infect those 260,000 people then it would have died out. Therefore it must have a certain contagiousness factor which guarantees a certain range of untested infected. You can run the logic backwards and forwards.

Yes you can lie with statistics but this is a huge macro sort of number not some tiny fraction.

EDIT:

There is also data from isolated populations where 100% of the people were tested, and you can extrapolate from that. This isn't unreasonable hand waving, the assumptions make sense and if you think differently you should try to prove it.

[M60A1Rise]

Couldn't agree more ! I love this site but sometimes I scratch my head at the lunacy displayed here.

[Master_Prestige]

stick to laker play by play.

[capo]

Today at 1:48 PM
Current stats. 1.2 million confirmed cases worldwide with 66,000 deaths. That's a 6% death rate. If we consider that there are at least another 1.2 million unreported cases for various reasons...that is a 3% death rate. If we use the 2.400,000 world wide cases in a population of 7 billion, we get a miniscule fraction of less than 1 percent of the global population infections and death rate. Yes every death is sad to someone. And the economic damage done to the world is greater than the loss of life.

NY State stats: as of right now...and I rounded the numbers up quite generously.
125,000 cases...3500 deaths. That's 3% deaths. Obviously being sick isn't "dying"...and that is just reported cases.
New York State population 19,850,000. Known infection rate is 6/10ths of 1 percent. Deaths as a % population 2/100ths of 1%.

The deaths do not warrant shutting the country down.

Also of interest: we install seat belts in cars to protect people who already got in an accident. We outlaw drug use to prevent people who were already addicted from using them. We administer vaccines to protect people who've already had the disease.

Oh wait.... none of those things make any sense.

If you judge the appropriateness of preventive measures by what has already occurred you've absolutely missed the whole point.

News flash: the world has curbed public interaction to prevent 25%, or 50% or 75% of the population from getting the disease, not to help those who already have it.

[zhyla]

"The deaths do not warrant shutting the country down. "
At what death rate would you or not at all?