Good news! USA Covid death growth rate slowing...

[boris badinov]

I don't really understand why so many want to call a premature "Game Over" and get the country back to normal, when the fact is that things won't be normal for at least two more years.

If the economy was the best in US history to begin with, why is it that over half the country is going broke after just two weeks at home?

Maybe the "best economy in us history," was just a load of BS?

[boris badinov]

The US death toll was over 10,000 well before Sunday evening. This under-counting was long expected as a result of the initial and ongoing lack of preparation exhibited in the federal response.

https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj-g6qHrdboAhXCUt8KHSz5BawQFjADegQIBBAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Finvestigations%2Fcoronavirus-death-toll-americans-are-almost-certainly-dying-of-covid-19-but-being-left-out-of-the-official-count%2F2020%2F04%2F05%2F71d67982-747e-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html&usg=AOvVaw2xZAqpPNnm-cSAMqCjgrhq

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-health-watch/michigans-covid-19-death-toll-undercounted-so-some-want-test-dead

https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-usa-death-toll-nears-10000-experts-say-us-undercounting-2953054

https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/04/07/us-coronavirus-death-count-likely-an-underestimate-heres-why/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-death-toll-americans-are-almost-certainly-dying-of-covid-19-but-being-left-out-of-the-official-count/ar-BB12bSIa

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/05/us-governments-handling-coronavirus-crisis-has-led-severe-undercounting-deaths

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/07/c_138953672.htm

[LBDamned]

^^^ overcounting.

[boris badinov]

^^^ overcounting.

^^^whistling past the graveyard.

or

the ostrich strategy:

[jglabe]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/u...ndercount.html

Some known facts:

No cure.
No effective treatment.
Still 2 years minimum until we're out of the woods.

Conservative estimate is the 50% of the US will be infected. At a 1% MR that's 1.6million deaths. (Current deat rate among known infected is over 2%). Other estimates project that 50

Massive shortages of PPE across the country.

This is far from over.

[boris badinov]

You list this as a fact..... it appears that is your fatal error in this debacle.

In order for this 1% mortality rate to be a fact, you have to be sure that everyone who had contracted this virus in the last 6 weeks has been tested. If you truly believe that, I don’t know what to say.... it is far more likely to have a much, much, larger percentage of the population that has had it and not been tested.

Your argument of 1.6 million US dead is built on an extremely shaky foundation. Be prepared for it to crumble, as it most certainly will.

I agree with you 100%. I don't believe everyone who has had the virus and recovered has been tested.

It's also a fact that not everyone who has died from Covid19 has been tested.

[JDoe]

Good news! USA Covid death growth rate slowing...

I don't really understand why so many want to call a premature "Game Over" and get the country back to normal, when the fact is that things won't be normal for at least two more years.

If the economy was the best in US history to begin with, why is it that over half the country is going broke after just two weeks at home?

Maybe the "best economy in us history," was just a load of BS?

[sd_shooter]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/u...ndercount.html

Some known facts:

No cure.
No effective treatment.
Still 2 years minimum until we're out of the woods.

Fact: no cure
Fiction: No effective treatment

There are widespread reports of effective treatments but these have been outright banned by politicians. Likely there is money involved (eg. Fauci & Gates stand to profit greatly from the pandemic and don't want inexpensive treatment)

"Out of the woods"? There are many things in life that cannot be cured, only postponed.

Conservative estimate is the 50% of the US will be infected. At a 1% MR that's 1.6million deaths. (Current deat rate among known infected is over 2%). Other estimates project that 50

Those estimates may not be accurate.

Don't forget what Fauci first forecasted:

https://reason.com/2020/03/11/covid-19-mortality-rate-ten-times-worse-than-seasonal-flu-says-dr-anthony-fauci/

From article:

If Fauci's assessment is correct, that implies that an unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic would end up killing between 200,000 and 520,000 Americans.

We'll have to wait and see

Massive shortages of PPE across the country.

This is far from over.

Shortage of PPE for the time being, but 3M is making 50M N95 masks per months for our own use.

It's not over but the point of the thread: there is light at the end of the tunnel

I agree with you 100%. I don't believe everyone who has had the virus and recovered has been tested.

It's also a fact that not everyone who has died from Covid19 has been tested.

Agree

[boris badinov]

I am aware of this.

The comment regarding the economy was strictly rhetorical.

Obviously the past three years was never the best economy in US history. More US citizens live just above or below the poverty line now than at any time in the past three decades.

[jrock]

as stated above, the models were/are invalid, therefore one cannot make the claim that any rate is slowing.
there was never proper data to create a 'model'.
ny data isnt going to be nearly like that of 80% other states...

[LBDamned]

^^^whistling past the graveyard.

or

the ostrich strategy:

It wasn't an opinion. Your sources aren't the only "experts" reporting "facts".

[LBDamned]

I agree with you 100%. I don't believe everyone who has had the virus and recovered has been tested.

It's also a fact that not everyone who has died from Covid19 has been tested.

It's also fact that many being counted as covid19 would have died of other conditions... And in fact did die of other conditions but had covid and it's a point in the covid column.

Pathetic that you're making a game of it.

Wash you hand and Get back to work.

[boris badinov]

It wasn't an opinion. Your sources aren't the only "experts" reporting "facts".

Produce the "expert" sources that indicate that the death toll is either accurate or lower than reported.

As it stands the list of sources I provided is a wide spectrum view from right, left and center.

Show your "overcounting" evidence. Or your reply was just fake news fueled by red strain TDS.

[LBDamned]

Produce the "expert" sources that indicate that the death toll is either accurate or lower than reported.

As it stands the list of sources I provided is a wide spectrum view from right, left and center.

Show your "overcounting" evidence. Or your reply was just fake news fueled by red strain TDS.

I'm working and don't have all day to do your research for you...

There are many reports out there - look it up. You seem to have nothing but time to post your egenda driven bs - so try talking time educate yourself on reality.

[Robotron2k84]

I doubt that NYC has truly peaked with the numbers ceasing to be reported. Cuomo is a politician and is using the numbers to his advantage. His political graces depend on the numbers going down.

The evidence that you're talking about doesn't suggest the opposite. It only suggests that their current capacity is exceeded.

That does not mean that the death rate isn't going down (nor does it mean it isn't going up) and it doesn't mean that they're over reporting (nor does it mean they're under reporting). It only means that more people are dying than they're currently capable of handling.

Yesterday I wrote about how the official daily coronavirus death count in New York State had plateaued at 600 or so even though the IHME model projected 700+, with deaths expected to approach 900 per day at the peak. What explains the difference? Were the assumptions behind the model, which were based on China’s dubious early data, simply too pessimistic? Had social distancing by New Yorkers been more effective than anticipated in flattening the curve? Could be both, of course.

There’s another possibility.

There were reports last week that the official COVID-19 death toll in Italy and Spain didn’t fully account for the spike in deaths regionally in those countries between March 2019 and March 2020. There were “excess” deaths that were officially unexplained. The problem, it seemed, was that health authorities were too overwhelmed with caring for the living to take time to test all of the dead. If you came down with a fatal case of coronavirus and died at home, chances are your death wouldn’t count towards the disease’s death toll even though you’d be counted in the regional numbers for deaths by all causes during March.

It’s happening in New York too, says Gothamist in a new story this morning. If EMTs show up to an apartment where someone has passed away, the deceased will be classified as a “probable” case of COVID-19 if there’s evidence of a flu-like illness present — but probable cases don’t count towards the official coronavirus death toll. Unless the deceased was tested for the disease before expiring or is tested postmortem by the medical examiner, they’re left out. How many cases like that might there be in New York? A lot:

Another 200 city residents are now dying at home each day, compared to 20 to 25 such deaths before the pandemic, said Aja Worthy-Davis, a spokeswoman for the medical examiner’s office. And an untold number of them are unconfirmed…

The FDNY says it responded to 2,192 cases of deaths at home between March 20th and April 5th, or about 130 a day, an almost 400 percent increase from the same time period last year. (In 2019, there were just 453 cardiac arrest calls where a patient died, according to the FDNY.)

That number has been steadily increasing since March 30th, with 241 New Yorkers dying at home Sunday — more than the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths that occurred citywide that day. On Monday night, the city reported 266 new deaths, suggesting the possibility of a 40% undercount of coronavirus-related deaths.

Why are so many people dying at home? Some may have deteriorated from the disease suddenly; there are reports out there of doctors marveling at how quickly some patients go from more or less fine to critical. Others may suspect that they have a severe case of coronavirus but fear dying alone in a hospital ICU, isolated from family. Others, stricken with ailments unrelated to coronavirus like cardiac problems, may decide they’re better off toughing it out at home and hoping for the best than risking infection by visiting a hospital right now.

A cardiologist at Yale has a fascinating column today about a phenomenon that’s puzzling him and his colleagues: Hospital admissions due to heart attack and stroke are waaaaay down lately. Anecdotally, so are other emergencies unrelated to coronavirus, like appendicitis and gall bladder attacks. Where are all the sick people who aren’t sick with COVID-19?

Heart attack and stroke teams, always poised to rush in and save lives, are mostly idle. This is not just at my hospital. My fellow cardiologists have shared with me that their cardiology consultations have shrunk, except those related to Covid-19. In an informal Twitter poll by @angioplastyorg, an online community of cardiologists, almost half of the respondents reported that they are seeing a 40 percent to 60 percent reduction in admissions for heart attacks; about 20 percent reported more than a 60 percent reduction.

And this is not a phenomenon specific to the United States. Investigators from Spain reported a 40 percent reduction in emergency procedures for heart attacks during the last week of March compared with the period just before the pandemic hit.

It’s possible that America’s strange new reality of mass quarantine is reducing cases of acute illness, the doctor notes, such as by reducing the amount of physical exertion people endure every day. It could be that people are eating differently too. But he’s skeptical of those explanations, as am I. They shouldn’t make *that* much of a difference in the weird fall-off of hospitalizations for acute ailments. If anything, we might expect people to eat worse when they’re bored and cooped up. The stress from widespread anxiety over COVID-19 should also be hurting people’s health too. Weirdest of all, says the doctor, respiratory illnesses exacerbate heart conditions. With coronavirus circulating, you’d expect more heart attacks right now, not fewer.

Given the spike in deaths at home in New York and the reality of “excess deaths” in Italy and Spain, it seems likely that some not insignificant number of people are dying of conditions like cardiac trouble either because they refused to visit the hospital at a moment of mass infection or because EMTs couldn’t reach them in time to save them due to the much heavier load of 911 calls recently. (I haven’t seen data on growing lag times in response to 911 calls in NYC but I’d be keen to know.) If someone has a minor heart attack that would have been treatable during normal times and ends up dying on their bed because the ambulance took 90 minutes to arrive amid a surge of COVID cases, how should that death be classified? It’s not directly caused by the virus but the epidemic was a major contributing factor.

As I’m writing this post, Andrew Cuomo is rolling out today’s new official numbers from New York. On top of the many “coronavirus-related” deaths that are falling through the cracks, there’s bad news in the official count as well: No more plateau.

NEW: New York State recorded its deadliest day of the COVID-19 outbreak yesterday with 5,489 deaths up from 4,758, that’s an increase of 731 according to Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

This is the first day over day increase since April 3rd, Friday.

Hospitalization growth rates slow.

— Tom Winter (@Tom_Winter) April 7, 2020

Good news about hospitalizations, but the death count is back in line with the IHME projections. Maybe New York hasn’t reached the peak yet after all.

Update: Oof. This is ominous.

#COVID19 New York state now has more confirmed cases than Italy

Even worse, NY has much higher #coronavirus testing positivity rate suggesting more severe under-testing than Italy

NY: 138,836 positive out of 320,811 tested = 43%

Italy: 132,547 positive out 721,732 tested = 18%

— Andy Biotech (@AndyBiotech) April 7, 2020

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/04/07/death-toll-new-york-lower-expected-lately/