Iceland's testing numbers tell a hopeful story for the rest of us

[cleonard]

It is a small country with only 364 thousand people. At this point they have tested a larger proportion than any other including the much promoted South Korea. They have been testing not only those sick but also people at random with no symptoms. As of March 27th they had tested about 4% of the population. This is by far the best data that exists on infections.

The data is here https://www.covid.is/data

They have found that a full half of those positive have zero symptoms. Since we only test those who are rather sick there are a lot of people out there with no idea that they have it. I'd guess that 75% or more of our cases are missed by the system. Only our social distancing protects those who don't have it.

They currently have 963 confirmed cases, only 19 in the hospital and 6 in the ICU. That is only a 2% hospitalization rate and a 0.6% ICU rate. It's early and that may well go up, but it is an encouraging number. The numbers that the US has been using is a 20% hospitalization rate and a 5% ICU rate.

These numbers a way different and way different in a very good way.

Time will tell if it holds.

[cleonard]

so what does it mean? Previously we were only really testing hospital admissions. Now we test more, but hardly everyone with only mild symptoms. If that 2% hospitalization rate is true here and we only test admissions it means that we have 5 million cases today. I don't think that it right, but we probably had between 400k and 800k at least.

It means we will get to herd immunity relatively quickly without the dire predictions of millions or more dead. More like a death rate on the order of 0.3% . Bad for sure though. Perhaps a lot less if Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin work as advertised.

[zhyla]

The data is here https://www.covid.is/data

They have found that a full half of those positive have zero symptoms.

That link doesn't contain this information. Is there another link that mentions this?

[sd_shooter]

That link doesn't contain this information. Is there another link that mentions this?

Yeah, here's a definitive link!

https://lmgtfy.com/?q=iceland+covid+testing

An example of what this yields:

https://futurism.com/neoscope/half-coronavirus-carriers-no-symptoms

[cleonard]

I found a breakdown on one of the Icelandic govt sites. Can't find it this morning. Plenty of stories on it form various journalistic sources as shown by sd_shooter's link.

Sent from my moto g(7) using Tapatalk

[zhyla]

An example of what this yields:
https://futurism.com/neoscope/half-c...rs-no-symptoms

That's better than nothing, but I was hoping for a link to the study that had the actual data/conclusions about asymptomatic people.

This article references the same study but says 1% are asymptomatic:

There's a Bloomberg article that quotes the 50% number, but they're getting that 2nd hand from the reputable science journal known as Buzzfeed. I can't find a link to the actual study anywhere, unfortunately.

There's also a nuance here that would be easy to miss. The median incubation period for COVID-19 is around 5 days. Some portion of the "asymptomatic" cases likely just haven't come down with symptoms yet.

[toro1]

While I do not have a link to the Iceland data, here is a link to the Diamond Princess data that shows an ~50% asymptomatic rate for those infected. Personally I think the Diamond princess shows a worst possible case scenario due to the crew preparing and serving food being infected and the environmental constraints, ie people couldn't leave the ship. In the situation, it was a 17% infection rate with half of those being asymptomatic. If you calculate the death rate for the 7 persons out of 3711 people on board, it shows as just below .2%.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/

Click on the link in the article to go to the paper that shows all of the data and their methodology.

[JDoe]

...There's also a nuance here that would be easy to miss. The median incubation period for COVID-19 is around 5 days. Some portion of the "asymptomatic" cases likely just haven't come down with symptoms yet.

I wonder how long it is until an infected person tests positive?

[not-fishing]

They have to do an Antibody test to know how many really were infected. That is the true denominator in any how many get sick or how many die percentages.

[sbo80]

it's all a bizarre numbers game. If you test "positive" the day after you catch it, but don't feel sick for another week, were you counted as "asymptomatic" because when they tested you, you were in fact that? Or if you caught it, test negative two days later but finally get sick after a week, how is that counted? If you are retested positive do they remove your negative result from the statistics? You'd have to test, and then track over time, everybody to actually get the truth.

[zhyla]

I wonder how long it is until an infected person tests positive?

[cleonard]

it's all a bizarre numbers game. If you test "positive" the day after you catch it, but don't feel sick for another week, were you counted as "asymptomatic" because when they tested you, you were in fact that? Or if you caught it, test negative two days later but finally get sick after a week, how is that counted? If you are retested positive do they remove your negative result from the statistics? You'd have to test, and then track over time, everybody to actually get the truth.

Yes, definitely possible and who knows how everyone is testing. A lot of unknowns for sure. However, this 50% number matches the 47% asymptomatic number from the diamond princess cruise ship. It's is a good thing when two different ways of measuring come up wit consistent results.