Cuomo NY Statistics Presented today 3/27

[Marthor]

Gov Cuomo New York stats today 3/27

44635 tested positive
6481 hospitalized currently
1583 ICU
2045 discharged from hospitalization

========

Here's some numbers calculated by me...
Estimating how many ventilators are actually needed in NY State

Population New York State = 19.2 million
Assumption up front that Corona = 11% infection rate equivalent to worst flu season

https://Www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm

[SAN compnerd]

Gov Cuomo New York stats today 3/27

44635 tested positive
6481 hospitalized currently
1583 ICU
2045 discharged from hospitalization

========

Here's some numbers calculated by me...
Estimating how many ventilators are actually needed in NY State

Population New York State = 19.2 million
Assumption up front that Corona = 11% infection rate equivalent to worst flu season

https://Www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm

All the focus on ventilators has overlooked a key point made by Dr. Birx. Personnel to operate them.

Birx made the point that if we came up with a million vents, 950k would go unused because there are not enough trained personnel to operate them.

Not like the janitor can hook someone up.

As we now learn that the epidemiologist in the UK has lowered his estimate of deaths by 2500% due to flaws in his model, it should not be long before the math you demonstrate is found to be true, and we can try to get back to normal as this is not the mass casualty event we have been propagandized into believing.

[harbormaster]

Double

Certainly someone suffering from TDS and wanting to blame Trump will be along to dispel these figures as inept or corrupt. I'd suggest pulling the typical out of the hat and double them up. Ok so NYC will need 36,800 respirators. How many does it have now? How many companies are making them already? How many do they make a week? I know that vacum dude invented a new one and said his company will make 10k a week. In 4 weeks they could make enough for NYC alone.

Just like testing. They need to get it and they will. Of course for those suffering TDS and not ordering 15k respirators in 2015 when they could have its not good enough.

Gov Cuomo New York stats today 3/27

44635 tested positive
6481 hospitalized currently
1583 ICU
2045 discharged from hospitalization

========

Here's some numbers calculated by me...
Estimating how many ventilators are actually needed in NY State

Population New York State = 19.2 million
Assumption up front that Corona = 11% infection rate equivalent to worst flu season

https://Www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm

[Marthor]

I don't believe it's that hard. The trained people can train a few more for set up and even more can be trained for monitoring once it's set up and running.

I believe in capacity limits. Limits in number of people and vulunteers and limits on numbers of beds, but I think 50k ventilators max nationwide is waaaaay too low that could be operated if we had them and need them.

[Marthor]

It's only one more days' data, but the ICU rate compared to number new positive is...

172/7683= 2.2% for Saturday's 3/28 new data presented

Less than the 3.5% ICU rate previously calculated.

[Medics197]

[Marthor]

It's only one more days' data, but the ICU rate compared to number new positive is...

172/7683= 2.2% for Saturday's 3/28 new data presented

Less than the 3.5% ICU rate previously calculated.

So, if 2.2% rate held steady, NY would need 11,500 ventilators, but if high testing rates continue to grow the denominator faster, then the number of ventilators needed by calculation will continue to drop as the ICU rate drops. Let's hope high testing continues to tell the real story faster.

The other wildcard is that Cloroquine effects the top number by reducing number of people that need ICU, because the chloroquine is working. That will also have an effect on dropping the ICU rate and the number of ventilators needed. The chloroquine effect on the number looks like it will be tangible soon now based on continued flow of good news of treatment by chloroquine.

[AlienHobo]

It's only one more days' data, but the ICU rate compared to number new positive is...

172/7683= 2.2% for Saturday's 3/28 new data presented

Less than the 3.5% ICU rate previously calculated.

Where do you find these stats? I've looked around and can't find anything. My Google skills are lacking.

[capo]

Gov Cuomo New York stats today 3/27

44635 tested positive
6481 hospitalized currently
1583 ICU
2045 discharged from hospitalization

========

Here's some numbers calculated by me...
Estimating how many ventilators are actually needed in NY State

Population New York State = 19.2 million
Assumption up front that Corona = 11% infection rate equivalent to worst flu season

https://Www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm

Some initial problems with those assumptions...

1) You can't split the viral case load over time by 50%, that's not how outbreaks occur relative to time. Most of the timeline of an outbreak is in the initiation phase when only a small portion of people have the infection. When growth accelerates most of the total case load happens in a short time span. You'd have to know what the acceleration rate and total number of patients to gauge what percentage of patients will require concurrent care and you'd need to know the average time requiring hospitalization per patient. This disease currently has people needing to remain hospitalized longer than severe influenza.

2) You can't treat New York as a single entity as though all hospital beds and staff are available to the entirety of patients. The state covers nearly 55,000 square miles with varying degrees of capacity and resources throughout, NYC is only 0.5% of the land area yet has nearly 50% of the state's population.

3) You can't harvest data from an area under a progressively strict isolation and quarantine protocols and then apply those figures to what things would look like if you weren't doing the isolation and quarantine. The entire point of the lockdowns is to slow growth rate and they will have a significant effect on that.

[cleonard]

Assumption up front that Corona = 11% infection rate equivalent to worst flu season
[

This corona virus is many times more transmissible than the flu. The infection rate could easily be 80%.

[Marthor]

Some initial problems with those assumptions...

1) You can't split the viral case load over time by 50%, that's not how outbreaks occur relative to time. Most of the timeline of an outbreak is in the initiation phase when only a small portion of people have the infection. When growth accelerates most of the total case load happens in a short time span. You'd have to know what the acceleration rate and total number of patients to gauge what percentage of patients will require concurrent care and you'd need to know the average time requiring hospitalization per patient. This disease currently has people needing to remain hospitalized longer than severe influenza.

2) You can't treat New York as a single entity as though all hospital beds and staff are available to the entirety of patients. The state covers nearly 55,000 square miles with varying degrees of capacity and resources throughout, NYC is only 0.5% of the land area yet has nearly 50% of the state's population.

3) You can't harvest data from an area under a progressively strict isolation and quarantine protocols and then apply those figures to what things would look like if you weren't doing the isolation and quarantine. The entire point of the lockdowns is to slow growth rate and they will have a significant effect on that.

The infection will be a bell curve with a peak in the middle. That's 50% before the peak and 50% after. Cuomo included in his stats that average ventilator need is 10 to 20 days average at 15 days. You're not going to have a spike all occur in just 2 weeks. It would be over months. The 50% factor is very conservative and works unless your peak is so rapidly condensed to have more than 50% happen in 2 weeks.

People needing ventilators will be sent to where they are available. 50% of the population is in new york city, but you can probably put a bit more than 50% of the ventilaors there because big cities get hit harder.

[ACfixer]

As we now learn that the epidemiologist in the UK has lowered his estimate of deaths by 2500% due to flaws in his model, it should not be long before the math you demonstrate is found to be true, and we can try to get back to normal as this is not the mass casualty event we have been propagandized into believing.

This is encouraging in one sense, and I hope to God it's now accurate. But if he was so wrong the first time I'm not sure we should believe his second assessment any more than the first right?

[Lebaneseblonde]

Covid pts need on average 10 days on vents.

[Marthor]

This corona virus is many times more transmissible than the flu. The infection rate could easily be 80%.

Zero proof of that. 800 million were infected in China? Any other nation over 10%... nope.

[cleonard]

Zero proof of that. 800 million were infected in China? Any other nation over 10%... nope.

There will be no "proof" of anything until this is all over. All we can do is make measurement of what can be measured and apply epidemiology techniques to try and estimate the future. Are there unknowns? Sure lots of them. A big one is how effective our social distancing will be. In the absence of "flatten the curve" actions and given what we think we know, the number who get infected will be in the 80 to 90% range. Most of those will be asymptomatic or very mild cases. Only a small fraction, at most 10 or 15%, ever see a doctor or end up in the hospital.

China put insane for the US measures in place.

We can agree to disagree. I've been reading a lot on this and it's my conclusion as to the numbers.