Good article on spread

[Norcalkid]

Thought this was a really good article explaining social distance and spread. About Australia but still very relevant.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028

[SW1917]

Good with a lot of informative graphs -

[jglabe]

Good with a lot of informative graphs -

The beginning of the article was good. I had to stop when they started advocating that forced government tracking was the most successful measure to reduce the spread. And showed how well it work in south Korea and Singapore. I got the feeling the author was laying the groundwork to implement that in Australia.....

Personally, I would rather get the coronavirus and roll the dice, than to have to respond to a SMS message and verify my whereabouts multiple times a day. Oh, and leave your phone at home? Nope.... steep penalties for that. And the government will come knocking at my door, like the author mentions in the article.... lol. No thanks. Bring on the corona.....

[sd_shooter]

What they forgot to graph was the hospitalization and death rates.

It's a virus - who gives a crap about how fast it spreads? They all spread exponentially.

We are not running out of body bags despite what the media is claiming.

[jglabe]

What they forgot to graph was the hospitalization and death rates.

It's a virus - who gives a crap about how fast it spreads? They all spread exponentially.

We are not running out of body bags despite what the media is claiming.

I have been preaching those same words for the last two weeks......

I have been tracking the death rates (only here in the US) daily. We had been seeing a pretty steady 26% rise in total deaths every day. That changed a few days ago. It rose to about a 31% daily rise. Just so you know..... a 26% daily rise in deaths equals an increase by a factor of ten every ten days. So whatever we have now, just add a zero and that is our number 10 days from now. That means if the trajectory doesn’t change in the next 20 days, we will have 100,000 dead on April 15th. But we still won’t be running out of body bags.... unless of course those too are bought in China!!!

[sd_shooter]

I have been preaching those same words for the last two weeks......

I have been tracking the death rates (only here in the US) daily. We had been seeing a pretty steady 26% rise in total deaths every day. That changed a few days ago. It rose to about a 31% daily rise. Just so you know..... a 26% daily rise in deaths equals an increase by a factor of ten every ten days. So whatever we have now, just add a zero and that is our number 10 days from now. That means if the trajectory doesn’t change in the next 20 days, we will have 100,000 dead on April 5th. But we still won’t be running out of body bags.... unless of course those too are bought in China!!!

Looked one up

Seems like we're very close to the 'knee' on the death chart. Time to re-open the USA for business

[jglabe]

Looked one up

Seems like we're very close to the 'knee' on the death chart. Time to re-open the USA for business

Lol. We are only close to the knee if you can see the future.... that chart is really telling. That straight line on a log scale is bad by the way.

[sd_shooter]

Lol. We are only close to the knee if you can see the future.... that chart is really telling. That straight line on a log scale is bad by the way.

Sure we can see the future. Countries that were hit with this early are already seeing a huge reduction in deaths, notably China. We're just a short number of weeks behind.

[jpg366]

It is more like a test kit distribution rate. The more telling measure is the % testing negative. Media has people panicking over flu symptoms. And it is flu season.

[jpg366]

Sure we can see the future. Countries that were hit with this early are already seeing a huge reduction in deaths, notably China. We're just a short number of weeks behind.

[capo]

Good article on spread


Keep in mind that's coming from someone who doesn't think we should be doing the mass isolation protocols in the first place, the very thing responsible for breaking the growth curve elsewhere.

Math is evidently very hard for some people.

[sd_shooter]

Keep in mind that's coming from someone who doesn't think we should be doing the mass isolation protocols in the first place, the very thing responsible for breaking the growth curve elsewhere.

Math is evidently very hard for some people.

Sweden isn't doing isolation - are they crazy or just realistic?

Isolate the sick, not the healthy. #commonsense

[capo]

Sweden isn't doing isolation - are they crazy or just realistic?

Isolate the sick, not the healthy. #commonsense

10 days ago we weren't doing isolation either, then the growth curve started. Cherry picking data doesn't improve your grasp of the larger situation.

Nor are you summing up Sweden's response all that well. Their public health agency has banned all large public gatherings, have urged everyone to work from home and avoid domestic travel if at all possible. They've placed restrictions on restaurant service and have a plan in place to seal off all of Stockholm, the epicenter of their epidemic. They've also banned all non-essential international travel. There has been a lot of internal criticism about Sweden's current policies and pressure is mounting for them to act, it's very likely just a matter of time.

Something you should think about: what new talking point will you pivot to when even Sweden's tone deaf health agency moves to widespread business closure or quarantining their largest city? Still just a nothingburger?

[jglabe]

10 days ago we weren't doing isolation either, then the growth curve started. Cherry picking data doesn't improve your grasp of the larger situation.

Nor are you summing up Sweden's response all that well. Their public health agency has banned all large public gatherings, have urged everyone to work from home and avoid domestic travel if at all possible. They've placed restrictions on restaurant service and have a plan in place to seal off all of Stockholm, the epicenter of their epidemic. They've also banned all non-essential international travel. There has been a lot of internal criticism about Sweden's current policies and pressure is mounting for them to act, it's very likely just a matter of time.

Something you should think about: what new talking point will you pivot to when even Sweden's tone deaf health agency moves to widespread business closure or quarantining their largest city? Still just a nothingburger?

All good points..... some people either don’t understand math, or they don’t want to believe that our current trend will continue for the near term, unless something is done to stop it. Rainbows and unicorns ain’t gonna stop it. It will take sacrifice of some degree. Whether that is business as usual and let the chips fall where they may, or reduce personal exposure by limiting contact with other people. I am sure there are other ways as well.....

But at our current rate of death, we will be at 13,000 dead on April 6th, and 130,000 dead on April 16th. Do we have to get to that point before we should act?

Now I am not saying that we have to force people to stay at home or anything else. I am a big proponent of giving people the correct information and letting them make their own choice. However, me and my family will be sitting this one out until there’s a better idea of what exactly what we are dealing with here.

[sd_shooter]

All good points..... some people either don’t understand math, or they don’t want to believe that our current trend will continue for the near term, unless something is done to stop it. Rainbows and unicorns ain’t gonna stop it. It will take sacrifice of some degree. Whether that is business as usual and let the chips fall where they may, or reduce personal exposure by limiting contact with other people. I am sure there are other ways as well.....

But at our current rate of death, we will be at 13,000 dead on April 6th, and 130,000 dead on April 16th. Do we have to get to that point before we should act?

Now I am not saying that we have to force people to stay at home or anything else. I am a big proponent of giving people the correct information and letting them make their own choice. However, me and my family will be sitting this one out until there’s a better idea of what exactly what we are dealing with here.

I think it's you (and likely capo) that can't do math.

The raw numbers:

https://ncov2019.live/data

Current death rate: (1311/85498)*100 = 1.5%
(Note: this will trend down now that our testing capacity has ramped up)

Log scale death rates:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

Today:


Now I know you're just taking that "USA" line and extending it in a linear fashion. We've seen from other countries, even Italy with their elderly population of cheek-kissing smokers, that the death rate will soon come down. And even if your approach is correct you still won't reach those numbers quoted.

I'll go out on a limb and say the US will cap out at 5k deaths:
- We can't trust the China numbers at all
- We're not like Italy (they have the New Silk Road, poor healthcare system, poor general health, more elderly, cultural problems...)
- We're not regimented like Germany
- I'll say we're most like Iran. They're 81M people, capped at 2k deaths.