Ammo shortage easing?

[SharedShots]

Nice. I also did a little check of people waiting outside the Big 5 on the day they restock ammo. There have been people waiting 3 hours or more before they open. Last week, 30 mins before opening, there was no one there.

Some people gave up, others got what they need and the weekend BBQ season is here so a lot of people now have different priorities.

No one is wiping their butts any more than they used to but there are no lines for toilet paper either.

There is at least a couple more years to go before any possibility of a major change in the Senate and House so there is plenty of time for the next crisis.

During the pandemic a lot of people were at home and spent their days watching and listening to the news over and over. Now they can get out and enjoy the sun, do things and despite what it seems like if you spend a lot of time on forums, for most people guns aren't their life but rather part of it.

Its often hard for those who's lives revolve around guns to understand that most people see guns as a part of their concerns and activities and not the activity or concern around which everything else revolves. It can be tough to accept/understand but its the reality.

[Preston-CLB]

I've been buying 9mm, .223, and 22lr at Big-5 in Sonora. I go early on shipment day (Friday).

Earlier this year I would see 15-20 people in line at opening time. This past Friday, I got there at 0730 (they open at 0930) and was 1st in line. When they opened there was 7 folks waiting. I was the only one there until 0830. (I actually helped the store folks haul trash to the dumpster in my pick up while I waited)

Prices were a bit better on 9mm, and .22LR. They even had CCI 22 WMR at a good price that I have had a devil of a time finding locally at any price.

Their selection of calibers varies, but it seems to be slowly getting better. Whether or not that trend continues, remains to be seen.
-P

[Wheellock]

It will be interesting to see how it goes from here. I have been reloading 9 mm for the past year, but it's not my favourite thing to do, so if it gets back down to $250 per 1,000 I will start restocking. I suspect many people will do the same, so prices may stay a little elevated for a while. I would hope that things go back to about 10% over pre-panic prices (since raw materials have gone up).

[Dan_Eastvale]

Cartel ammo thieves selling to Big 5 distributors at a BIG discount...

[AR22]

I found a 100 round box of Winchester Super X .22 at the local Garage Sale the other day..Despite not needing anymore .22 and it being Winchester crap..I bought it anyway for 7 bucks..

[Dano3467]

+1.. Keep buying, & prices will never go down

[TrappedinCalifornia]

What I hear from my "local" shops is that the ammo (and the guns) come in waves. There will be moments where they seem to be flush in guns/ammo and other moments where it will appear as though the manufacturers have gone out of business. For awhile, they were 'blaming' the distributors for "allotting" a certain amount to each retailer.

In the end, I agree with what a number above have stated, my suspicion is that the 'manufacturers' are 'catching up,' but the distributors and the retailers are still worried. Some of that has to do with how the 'market' has changed in the last decade or so; i.e., the online retailers are soaking up a good deal of the available product, particularly in relation to ammo, and the brick & mortars, as with many products, can't compete when it comes to price. Given that, in California in particular, we are (by and large) legally 'hostage' to the brick & mortars, there are all kinds of 'games' being played.

$300+ stripped lower receivers which list for $90 - $125 on the manufacturer's site. $50 for 5 boxes of Aguila .22 LR that was selling for $2.49 a box pre-pandemic. $200+ for 1,000 9mm bullets (not cartridges), but no powder or primers in stock. Plenty of stock, but limited to two boxes, period, any combination of caliber and the price is noticeably higher than before? Well... We're just making sure 'everyone' has a chance. Don't like it? Where else you gonna get it? Want a 'break' on the ammo price, buy a gun in that caliber.

Don't want to pay such prices and want to order online? Okay. $75 - $100 transfer fee on the guns/receivers we refuse to stock; i.e., buy what we stock or pay the price. Ammo? Well... You can consult the various threads with regard to the hurdles often put in place.

Cultivating a good relationship with an FFL prior to this can help; but, unfortunately, there are limits to even that. Have money and figure it's just "supply and demand?" You can pretty much get what you need if money isn't the 'pain tolerance' test it is for a lot of people. Willing and able to expand your buying opportunities in terms of the available outlets? It will help 'ease' things, but not necessarily provide a panacea.

In short, "easing up" is still an amorphous, temporal, and regional concept.

[SharedShots]

There isn't going to be but a short term lowering of prices.

Its simple:

If you were in the supply chain and saw that people would pay very high prices for ammo would you out of the kindness of your heart lower prices? Supply and demand went out the window some time ago. If you say that people will eventually stop buying as they have been there is something not being considered: supply can be lowered to keep prices higher, it happens with all kinds of things.

Anyone see Apple selling iPhones for $99?

[Dan_Eastvale]

Guns are less short here. If ammo's on the shelf at ridiculous prices.... It sits.

[CheapBloke]

Guns are less short here. If ammo's on the shelf at ridiculous prices.... It sits.

Or gets bought by new gunowners who has 0 rounds, desperate gunowners, or rich gunowners.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[ocabj]

There isn't going to be but a short term lowering of prices.

Its simple:

If you were in the supply chain and saw that people would pay very high prices for ammo would you out of the kindness of your heart lower prices? Supply and demand went out the window some time ago. If you say that people will eventually stop buying as they have been there is something not being considered: supply can be lowered to keep prices higher, it happens with all kinds of things.

Anyone see Apple selling iPhones for $99?

I don't get why people are so negative about this as if history hasn't shown that these demand spikes eventually peter out after a couple years and things go down. Probably not back to what it was before the demand spike, but in line with inflation (e.g. cost of materials and transport).

In most recent years we saw it in 2008, 2013, and now in 2020. In 2024, we'll probably see rimfire back down to around $25 a brick for the basic stuff, maybe $60-$100 a brick for the 'match' ammo, and the $100+ a brick for the high grade stuff. Then in 2027 we'll probably have another event resulting in a spike in demand and prices and we'll repeat this all over again and people will be complaining about hoarders and others saying it's the end of days as we know it for ammo prices.

[JimBeam99]

[SharedShots]

I don't get why people are so negative about this as if history hasn't shown that these demand spikes eventually peter out after a couple years and things go down. Probably not back to what it was before the demand spike, but in line with inflation (e.g. cost of materials and transport).

In most recent years we saw it in 2008, 2013, and now in 2020. In 2024, we'll probably see rimfire back down to around $25 a brick for the basic stuff, maybe $60-$100 a brick for the 'match' ammo, and the $100+ a brick for the high grade stuff. Then in 2027 we'll probably have another event resulting in a spike in demand and prices and we'll repeat this all over again and people will be complaining about hoarders and others saying it's the end of days as we know it for ammo prices.

Because what is going on now in society is the same as what happened before? We haven't had inflation of any serious concern in a very long time. Well, if history is the teacher it's coming around again. As I said, the prices will come down but that will be short lived. There are fundamental changes taking place all over the government and its a two steps to something else and one step back all the while progression keeps going.

We can't be selective about using history to predict the future. There isn't an apocalypse when it comes to guns and ammo but there isn't going to be a routine cycle anymore either.

It isn't about being negative, its about just seeing the reality of what is going on and limiting everything to the cost of ammo as if it's some isolated market event doesn't really work. In those previous cycles what was the inflation rate? Nearly zero for practical purposes or so low it didn't matter to the typical person. That is about to change.

Unlike what you see alot around here where the singular focus is on guns and ammo (it is after all a forum about that) there is a much bigger picture of what is going on in commodities, labor and asset groups and that has a much greater impact on prices in the future than some cycle of what and who is making noise about civil this and that or some SHTF tacti-jonny dream.

Even enviro concerns will have a more dramatic effect on ammo prices going forward. The nest thing is the materials used to make ammo. About to hit real soon is lead and while we've seen this already in California with some restriction of where lead ammo can be used that is nothing compared to what is on the way. Just consider your rimfire guns. While there are some lead free offerings when they must all be that way then what happens? The prices you see now for rimfire will seem like wholesale in comparison. Then some Thunderberg will talk about the combustion by-products of smokeless powder and don't underestimate it because that too is right around the corner. Some will say - no way, that will never happen. So far it's all happened and then those same people say it's just a cycle...---

remember that when you can't buy a ICE vehicle anymore or the cost will be so high it will make you cringe.

California is now going to pay the past due rents for everyone. Where does that money come from? Not an ammo tax perhaps this year but taxes are going to go through the roof shortly. There is no way out of that except inflation. We have a choice, much higher taxes or inflation to pay for all the spending. Either one will affect guns and ammo prices and those that have already usually don't care too much about those that don't. That too is history repeating itself.

Personally, I don't care much about the prices of ammo. Instead of investing in some hoard of ammo (rather silly other than actual emergency needs) there was far better investments around that make the prices of ammo pretty much irrelevant. Hoarding ammo for the multi-year stockpile is like burning money compared to doing anything else for the future.

[Peahi2]

I hope we are not in line for an *** whupping level of inflation thanks to the Kamala/Biden presidency. I cringe thinking of what damage inflation can do to our lives. I'm thinking back to the good ole days of Jimmy Carter. Most people have not tasted the pain of real inflation.

[rsrocket1]