Current / Future - Milsurp Market

[hollowpoint67]

What's everyone's take on the market and our future?

I got into firearms around 2010, Milsurp specifically late 2015. In that five year span I saw RC K98s go from ~$200 to about $500, Arisaka's, MAS rifles etc which were a bit more common on the Long Gun section are now a rare occurrence.

I read old forum stories and see scans of advertisements from Shotgun News for $60 Mausers...obviously those days are gone and the closest we get today are $300 K31s and $180 M48s. Disregard inflation, but where are they all going?

Is this just a cyclical thing where rifles fade into collections and then are redistributed when the owner passes away? Or is there a recent huge demand for C&R items that has caused the market to dry up domestically. I can't imagine there still being huge quantities of milsurp internationally that are A. importable or B. affordable.

Needless to say I am on a spending / buy all I can spree currently, but I'm still not seeing as much C&R action as I did earlier when I didn't care for them.

[19K]

What's everyone's take on the market and our future?

I got into firearms around 2010, Milsurp specifically late 2015. In that five year span I saw RC K98s go from ~$200 to about $500, Arisaka's, MAS rifles etc which were a bit more common on the Long Gun section are now a rare occurrence.

I read old forum stories and see scans of advertisements from Shotgun News for $60 Mausers...obviously those days are gone and the closest we get today are $300 K31s and $180 M48s. Disregard inflation, but where are they all going?

Is this just a cyclical thing where rifles fade into collections and then are redistributed when the owner passes away? Or is there a recent huge demand for C&R items that has caused the market to dry up domestically. I can't imagine there still being huge quantities of milsurp internationally that are A. importable or B. affordable.

Needless to say I am on a spending / buy all I can spree currently, but I'm still not seeing as much C&R action as I did earlier when I didn't care for them.

its been drying up since they stopped being made 60+ years ago. A lot of those ads you see are also very old, when they imported tens of thousands of them. most times when you see the ads for sites like AIM or Classic its "check out the latest shipment we got in! we have 200! come get em!" the supply is just simply getting low after 50+ years of importation

the US is not the only country that buys old military rifles, other countries buy them as well, and not always for collecting purposes.

[Bobby Ricigliano]

To answer where all the milsurps are going: I've noticed that some folks are happy to acquire a couple nice pieces. Unfortunately some other whales and high rollers come in and buy up everything worth buying. Individual collectors sitting on 50-100 or more nice milsurps suck the life out of it for the rest of us hard scrabbling entry level collectors.

[musketjon]

40+ years ago when I was in high school, one could buy K98's all day long for $25-$30 at the local hock shop. Does that tell you anything? Back in '80 when I got my M1 rifle from the DCM it only cost $94.50 plus shipping and handling. On a more recent scale, have you been keeping an eye on the Mosin Nagant trends? They're all relative.
Jon

[echo1]

I'm one of those guys who remembers pickle barrels marked $5, $10, $15, bucks, with higher priced rifles in floor racks not touching each other, $20-$30 bucks, and the "expensive" rigs, $50-$75+ bucks on wall racks. That was in like '62?? You could buy a jeep for $100, a half track for $200, an M4 Sherman around $400, a P-51 for $1500 if you were wealthy.

My parents new 1100sf home in '59 cost $13.5 K at 1% and the payment was $53 bucks(?), which was about my dads weekly take home. They sold it in '77 for $185K (still owed $6.5K). I googled the address the other day, in '13 it sold for $810K!!

In '70 I got my first Sunbeam Tiger (of 3) with 15K miles for $4200, today that rig would fetch $55K-$65K.

My fist AMX (of 5) in '74 for $550, today will command $25K-$30K.

My first flying machine in '76, '56 PA22-160 was $4500, now around $32K. A DC3 could still be had for less than $10K. A renegade crop duster bud picked up a B25 for $15K around then, early '70s, wrenched on it for a week, lit it off, flew it back to the barn, sold it for $35K, delivered plus expenses to SoKal. He'd never flown a twin, didn't cycle the props or gear, flew it treetop down to Chino. That rigs a couple million at least.

I'm thinking if you collect stuff, it is not going to get cheaper, and there's a finite amount of it. PAX

[hollowpoint67]

All valid points, and the typical marketing buzzwords from AIM and Classic never gets old about it being the best/final/last shipment.

Mosins and SKS' have skyrocketed no doubt, when I was younger my father purchased a M38 Mosin and a Yugo SKS, $80 and $150. We all know how much they go for now.

French and Japanese were cheaper a couple years back, not so much now. Italian still seems to be dirt however Carcanos and Mosins are not my cup of tea.

One thing's for certain, I highly doubt going forward anyone will be continuing the barbaric practice of sporterizing.

[Garand Hunter]

As for the barbaric practice of spotrerizing, how many really nice 98's and o3's
have you seen that are some of the best hunting rigs ever made ? I have one
each 98 and 03 that are excellent deer rifles etc.

The 98 has Nazi Reichs Eagles stamps in 4 places and sits in a Harvey Roberts
palm swell custom stock and prints tight. Same for the 03, prints tight with a
Leupold 3-9 and nice wood. Won't take anything for them ! They were barberized back in the 1950's.

Psalm 1

[Grendl]

We're on the verge of the biggest transfer of wealth in world history: the baby boomers are starting to die off and their collections will begin to re-enter the market. The future might not be Sarco and Classic, but the liquidation of private collections.

[Milsurp Collector]

Supply and demand. There are no more warehouses full of RC K98k's for Don Mitchell to bring back (and Bubba) - his scare sale tactics of "buy now, there are no more left!" has finally come true. The supply coming into the CMP seems to be drying up. Most countries retired and exported their old military bolt-action and semi-autos years ago, and the stuff they are replacing now can't be imported except as parts kits. So the supply isn't going to grow very much if at all.

On the other hand, most of the buyers who are interested in old guns are getting older themselves. Of course there are exceptions, but most younger guys seem to be more interested in modern stuff. Right now there are 56 people viewing this Curio & Relic forum, 225 people viewing the California Handgun forum, and 241 people viewing the Centerfire Rifles - Semiautomatic or Gas Operated forum. As the older C&R collectors die off and their estates sell off their collections they will fill a market with declining demand as there will be not enough young guys (mostly) to replace the older C&R guys who are dying off.

There will be exceptions like the current Colt Python bubble, but declining/stable supply with declining/stable demand means stagnant prices.

[hollowpoint67]

We're on the verge of the biggest transfer of wealth in world history: the baby boomers are starting to die off and their collections will begin to re-enter the market. The future might not be Sarco and Classic, but the liquidation of private collections.

Grim but true, that being said they could be willed to family members or sent off to auction houses which i'll be the first to admit I am not too well versed on.

Gunjoker, Guns America, Gun Auction, Guns International, Lock Stock and Barrel.

I know there are other SoCal based Auction houses but I have not found their names/websites yet.

[mosinnagantm9130]

I'm actually surprised you can still get M48s for around $180. Things are built like tanks.

[echo1]

I still have my first milsurp, NOW a C&R. T38 bring back, given to me when I was 10 by my uncle, who captured it in New Guinea. It's willed to never be sold. PAX

[Chameleon Loco]

If dare I say, when we open up full trade with Cuba and north Korea becomes part of South Korea And a bigger if the government allows those c&r"s to be imported, a ton of them will flood the market.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[NOTABIKER]

Many thousands are still sitting in closets across America. Old guys that never look at them and the famely will turn them in after they are dead.If you are old and ill recirculate the dam things before it is too late.

[89 Vision]

My assessment is that my milsurps are doing better than my 401k and I have no plans on selling anymore.