The python bubble

[colossians323]

Will the python bubble ever burst? I keep seeing the prices go up up up over the last year or so, and it just seems to be getting worse and worse

[Dvrjon]

Maybe.

[The Mad Mule]

Maybe.

My turn with the Magic 8 Ball!

"Nope."

But in all seriousness, the prices will only get higher, because no more are going to be made. Rarity, Economy 101, all that jazz.

[Mr357magnum]

Yes, supply is limited, but demand must be kept high in order to keep prices high.

its like anything else. It is worth what ever someone will pay for it.

[mievil]

Demand will always be high since it is what it is. So, since supply is low, and demand will always be high, it will at the very least sustain. The bubble will not burst.

[The Gleam]

But in all seriousness, the prices will only get higher, because no more are going to be made. Rarity, Economy 101, all that jazz.

They are still making the Python Elite which is even on the CA roster. I think people will be quite surprised in a few short years, when marketing at Colt pulls their heads out of their arses and re-releases a Royal Blue production Python again, in 4" and 6", and may even get it on the CA roster as it has no issue of micro-stamping/mag-disconnect/loaded chamber indicator requirements. Let's say at SHOT 2016?? That might even be a smart move for them. It would be a top-seller on the cult-hyped mystique and inflated legendary status alone, and not be affected by all the Anti-2nd Amendment legislation aimed at their ARs and semi-auto handgun offerings.

I have a good number Colt Pythons, many I've owned since the late 1980s, but I have my mind in reality too. I've even discussed this before:

http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/showpost.php?p=11966404&postcount=24

I think current Python values are not justified for how many have been produced for more than 50 years, and for just how many are available at any given time while in all, anyone buying them now won't be using them much because they'll deem them to be "collector" items.

So the majority of what's available now, will likely always be available, because current buyers will relegate them to a mystique status as either too special to shoot or as an investment rather than for utilitarian purposes.

Search "Colt Python" on Gunbroker and nearly 300 listings for actual firearms pop up - not just parts or accessories. And of those listings, nearly 3/4th say "NIB". Now do the same search for "Semmerling" and see if ANYTHING comes up, but check the history and production figures on that gun, and you'll get an understanding as to why I say Python values/prices are out of control considering how many had been made, and how many are still floating around as available.

It's really not a rare gun at all. Certain models are rare, but even some of the high-production stainless examples are fetching 3" Combat Python, Python Hunter, or Python Silhouette prices. Many of the prices being fetched for common-place Colt Pythons are even higher than that for much more rare one-off Lugers where few are known to exist. It's gotten that crazy.

Personally, I think the current prices on Pythons are now at a plateau; they won't drop as would a bubble imply, but their increase from this point forward will be inflation % influenced. Same thing happened with Lugers years ago; prices reached a point and them flattened out for the next 2 decades. Now there is a flooding of collections of Lugers on the market as that generation dies off or their kids that inherited them are selling them off due to a lack of interest in firearms. Meanwhile, the prices are much the same as they were in the early 1990s, and as can be expected, few of the younger generation are buying. I've seen uber-rare Lugers re-appear that have been sitting in some gun stores recently for more than 9 months straight yet they are priced at what would have been reasonable pricing more than 10 years ago.

Yet, CA available PPT/consignment Pythons will always see crazy pricing having nothing to do with value.

[rm1911]

By definition a bubble will always burst. Honestly I really have never gotten the idea of a collector gun. If for instance it was THE gun used by someone famous or what not then maybe. But a gun is a tool. Does a python shoot better than my old model 686? And by how much?

Bubbles are based on the bigger fool principle. You're always trying to find a bigger fool to sell to. Current bubbles like housing and stocks and now the college loan bubble are all based on excessive monetary creation. Collector items are simply based on people's perceived valuations and desires which can change. Remember beanie babies?? Bubbles are simply periodic bouts of hyper inflation.

For me a gun will never be worth more than its shooting value. Even my garands. They are shooters. And why I don't think it's sacrilege to drill a milsurp. If it shoots better with a scope then drill it. If you enjoy irons more then don't. There are few things nicer than a smooth double action revolver in 357. But beyond that there is not value. Value is purely a measure of an items utility it usefulness.

[The Gleam]

By definition a bubble will always burst. Honestly I really have never gotten the idea of a collector gun. If for instance it was THE gun used by someone famous or what not then maybe. But a gun is a tool. Does a python shoot better than my old model 686? And by how much?

Bubbles are based on the bigger fool principle. You're always trying to find a bigger fool to sell to. Current bubbles like housing and stocks and now the college loan bubble are all based on excessive monetary creation. Collector items are simply based on people's perceived valuations and desires which can change. Remember beanie babies?? Bubbles are simply periodic bouts of hyper inflation.

But a bubble bursts when the actual value of an item is seen for it's true worth or consumers lose access to buying power, or the funds that supposedly back the value are a ruse (such as mark-to-marketing and power-shortage scams by Enron); a housing bubble had burst due to sub-prime loans and bad-loan practices extending credit to people who should not even have been allowed to own a Blockbuster video-rental card, let alone a credit-card.

A "Beanie-Babie" bubble existed because the "limited edition" fabricated hype over a silly stuffed-animal with a real value of about $.89 cents brought people back down to earth. Neither their materials nor their craftsmanship justified a price, and they were "rare" by any means.

These were "bubbles" in every sense of the word. Same could be said for muscle-cars of the 1960's when in the early 1980's, for fear of such cars never being made again, people were fetching surplus of $50,000 for any basic Chevelle with a 350 small-block under the hood which was trading off of the true rarity and value of an LS6 or Yenko auction sale reports. Any schmuck with a beat up old Chevelle Deluxe sporting a 307 in his garage thought he had a $100,000 winner. Yet true LS6's and Yenkos never dropped in value since those days and their fetching prices continue to rise.

Prices further dropped when Detroit started making show-room new production cars that had more horsepower and torque than their 1960's counterpart with faster 1/4th mile times; so interest further waned unless such 1960's examples were truly one-off rarities (SS/RS examples, the Ford Shelbies, the Gurneys, HEMI-based cars, etc.)

But such a bubble does not exist for truly rare or collectible items, where it is verifiable they will never be made again (so long as Colt DOESN'T do so, against my predictions that they will).

Original Tiffany lamps are top-tier collectibles and will never lose value. Winchester 1873s will always fetch more than the last time they were sold. A few weeks ago, Pebble Beach proved once again, that every year some rare antique Bugatti, Duesenberg, Ferrari, Jaguar, Mercedes, or Rolls is always going to set a new height in price for such cars.

But when something like the Colt Python with it's high production numbers albeit with a cease in production occurs, you won't get a bubble, but you will get a plateau where then the increases in pricing merely arise due to inflation or adverse legislation. I don't think prices on Python will drop, but I don't think they will advance in leaps and bound going forward, primarily because everyone will keep them in pristine condition and continue to trade on them. Thus, the number in existence will remain in existence; they won't be making anymore, but those that are out there surely won't be going anywhere.

Thus, values flatten out, but no "burst".

[John Browning]

But a bubble bursts when the actual value of an item is seen for it's true worth or consumers lose access to buying power, or the funds that supposedly back the value are a ruse (such as mark-to-marketing and power-shortage scams by Enron); a housing bubble had burst due to sub-prime loans and bad-loan practices extending credit to people who should not even have been allowed to own a Blockbuster video-rental card, let alone a credit-card.

A "Beanie-Babie" bubble existed because the "limited edition" fabricated hype over a silly stuffed-animal with a real value of about $.89 cents brought people back down to earth. Neither their materials nor their craftsmanship justified a price, and they were "rare" by any means.

These were "bubbles" in every sense of the word. Same could be said for muscle-cars of the 1960's when in the early 1980's, for fear of such cars never being made again, people were fetching surplus of $50,000 for any basic Chevelle with a 350 small-block under the hood which was trading off of the true rarity and value of an LS6 or Yenko auction sale reports. Any schmuck with a beat up old Chevelle Deluxe sporting a 307 in his garage thought he had a $100,000 winner. Yet true LS6's and Yenkos never dropped in value since those days and their fetching prices continue to rise.

Prices further dropped when Detroit started making show-room new production cars that had more horsepower and torque than their 1960's counterpart with faster 1/4th mile times; so interest further waned unless such 1960's examples were truly one-off rarities (SS/RS examples, the Ford Shelbies, the Gurneys, HEMI-based cars, etc.)

But such a bubble does not exist for truly rare or collectible items, where it is verifiable they will never be made again (so long as Colt DOESN'T do so, against my predictions that they will).

Original Tiffany lamps are top-tier collectibles and will never lose value. Winchester 1873s will always fetch more than the last time they were sold. A few weeks ago, Pebble Beach proved once again, that every year some rare antique Bugatti, Duesenberg, Ferrari, Jaguar, Mercedes, or Rolls is always going to set a new height in price for such cars.

But when something like the Colt Python with it's high production numbers albeit with a cease in production occurs, you won't get a bubble, but you will get a plateau where then the increases in pricing merely arise due to inflation or adverse legislation. I don't think prices on Python will drop, but I don't think they will advance in leaps and bound going forward, primarily because everyone will keep them in pristine condition and continue to trade on them. Thus, the number in existence will remain in existence; they won't be making anymore, but those that are out there surely won't be going anywhere.

Thus, values flatten out, but no "burst".

I agree with this, but I would not be surprised to see values drop. They aren't that rare and they aren't that nice. $2500 can buy you a revolver that has gotten a full house Hamilton Bowen treatment, and that puts a Colt Python to shame.

[jazman]

Colt does not make Pythons of any kind any more, and odds are they never will again, so the prices will probably keep going up. You only live once, so if you see one you like buy it and enjoy it. Truly a shooting pleasure.

[Dexter1]

JAZMAN is correct.. The 6" stainless python ELITE is currently on California's roster however no python of any kind is made anymore. As far as 300 of them coming up
On gunbroker yes it is true but how many can be shipped to CA? NONE!! And look at how many different states they are all spread out between ...a python in CA can only be sold under consignment from a dealer or PPT with both parties present and it has to already be in CA. Nothing comes from out of state unless it is passed down from father son , mother daughter . Of course with the exception of the 6" stainless "elite" that is still on roster but I'm sure will fall off soon. That being said they are rare in the CA market and with the demand for them they will always have more value here..

[dyson]

Would pythons be worth this much without the panic? They seem they havent budged from the panic pricing of the first quarter of the year while the rest of the market has moved lower.

[Dexter1]

DYSON:Because most other guns are made on production lines and are catching up
.. Where is the Colt double action revolver production line?
Supply and demand

[dyson]

Could be. Just wondering if theres an artificial bump from psychology of the panic still lingering as well.

[tbc]

Well, if Colt decided to manufacture the Python again, then yes, it will burst.