Duncan V Bonta - large cap mags: OLD THREAD

[ngnrnlo]

The difference between 2019 and now, is that Sidney Thomas was the Chief Justice in 2019. He was the one who “randomly” selected the en banc panel that overturned the 3-justice sustainment of Benitez’ ruling (following freedom week).

For the record, Sidney Thomas was the one justice out of 3 who dissented when the three judge panel sustained the peruta case, in 2013(?), before it was overturned en banc. That was before Sidney Thomas became Chief Justice of the 9th circuit.

There is a new Chief Justice as of December 1, 2021, Mary murguia. She was appointed judge by clinton, and Justice by Obama. She was short-listed by Obama as a potential SCOTUS nominee.

[jwkincal]

Ok I misunderstood. So in other words, we could be years out from this being settled still

Close, but...

We ARE years out.

The fastest route here is that Benitez once again rules against the State of California (this is a certainty, and will happen by early 2023)... after that, AG Bonta will appeal to the 9th Circuit of Appeals (this is also a certainty).

The case will take some time to be heard, a panel must be selected, the briefs made, extensions requested, oral arguments, etc. The 3-judge panel of CA9 will then rule. There is at least an even-money chance that we'll still get the ruling we want at this stage (I like to think that now it's a little better than that as there must be SOME judges who respect the rulings of SCOTUS in spite of their politics, but I am probably giving too much weight to that hope).

By now we are in early 2024 if not 2025.

If it's the ruling we want, Bonta will appeal for a full panel (in other CAs this would be all of the judges, in CA9 there would be 11 on the panel chosen at random); that he will ask for this request is again, a certainty.

(it goes without saying that if we do not get the ruling we want we will do the same)

Now there is a chance that the case will end. In order for an En Banc panel to be seated to hear a case, a majority of the active judges in the circuit must agree that it needs to be heard.

The CA9 is much less left-leaning than previously, because of a concerted effort on the part of the Republicans in the Senate during Trumps term in the Oval Office. If you calculate based on politics alone, there is about a 50/50 chance that such a vote would favor our cause. If there are even a few judges who are willing to put aside their personal politics and rule based on the SCOTUS opinions in Bruen, then the odds improve very quickly.

So...

IF we get a favorable ruling on the first appeal AND our luck holds during the En Banc appeal, this case, and the AWB/LCM ban will all be dead and gone approximately 3 years from now, sometime in 2025.

Personally, I believe we have a good chance of getting the short path. The longer path (a bad En Banc ruling requiring an appeal to SCOTUS) will be longer... by another 1-3 years or so?

[curtisfong]

There is a new Chief Justice as of December 1, 2021, Mary murguia. She was appointed judge by clinton, and Justice by Obama. She was short-listed by Obama as a potential SCOTUS nominee.

I suspect there will be no substantive change. The 9th will continue to rubberstamp everything the State files.

We are fortunate this (and Miller) is with Benitez. IMO we *must* do better at forum shopping.

[Drivedabizness]

For the legal beagles - given the post Heller history of CA's like the 9th completely disregarding/distorting USSC precedent on 2A rights - (I'm thinking now of the case of someone on death row - if they don't get timely relief they face the ultimate deprivation - of life. They always seem to get an emergency hearing). We have faced serious deprivations for years and those harms are irreparable. These cases shouldn't even be close as a matter of law. If the 9th keeps screwing us under a veneer of "due process" can't we go to SCOTUS and ask for relief?

[Bolt_Action]

For the legal beagles - given the post Heller history of CA's like the 9th completely disregarding/distorting USSC precedent on 2A rights - (I'm thinking now of the case of someone on death row - if they don't get timely relief they face the ultimate deprivation - of life. They always seem to get an emergency hearing). We have faced serious deprivations for years and those harms are irreparable. These cases shouldn't even be close as a matter of law. If the 9th keeps screwing us under a veneer of "due process" can't we go to SCOTUS and ask for relief?

At this point the best case scenario is to lose in the 9th as quickly as possible.

[pblawman]

What are the chances that Benitez rules consistent with his prior decision and this time refuses to issue a stay while the State appeals.


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[michigander]

What are the chances that Benitez rules consistent with his prior decision and this time refuses to issue a stay while the State appeals.


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[RickD427]

What are the chances that Benitez rules consistent with his prior decision and this time refuses to issue a stay while the State appeals.


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Then the state seeks a stay from the Ninth Circuit.

[Bhobbs]

The 9th did rule against the hi cap mag ban. I don’t think it’s 100% certain the state will get its stay, especially after the en banc panel was GVR’d by SCOTUS. SCOTUS told them they got it wrong, by overturning the 9th’s ruling.

[dozer wright]

I would like to know how much money the State of California has wasted on unconstitutional Firearm laws . From fighting in court , charging people , buy backs , and enforcement.
Yet allows criminals like druggies and thieves of all kinds to just Run amuck.

[Sputnik]

I would like to know how much money the State of California has wasted on unconstitutional Firearm laws . From fighting in court , charging people , buy backs , and enforcement.
Yet allows criminals like druggies and thieves of all kinds to just Run amuck.

In my non-expert opinion I estimate many many taxpayer dollars spent. It may even be as high as a boatload.

[homelessdude]

How big is this boat you speak of?

[DrewN]

If Benitez refuses a stay and we get immediately en bloc'd as usual, that would really be throwing down the gauntlet in the face of Bruen. Are they prepared to do that? If they think the SC will not grant cert on a gun case for another decade they absolutely will.

[pblawman]

Duncan V Bonta - large cap mags: GVR to 9th 6-30-22

What I think refusing to issue a stay by Benitez will do is accelerate the path to SCOTUS, which favors us. Plus it gives us a chance at another Freedom week/month/quarter while the state scrambles to get its act together.


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[Bhobbs]

If Benitez refuses a stay and we get immediately en bloc'd as usual, that would really be throwing down the gauntlet in the face of Bruen. Are they prepared to do that? If they think the SC will not grant cert on a gun case for another decade they absolutely will.