Estimated mortality rate down from 3.4% to 0.66% - Lancet

[skirunman]

Recently published article from UK Lancet now estimates case mortality rate for Covid-19 at 0.66% (6x average rate for seasonal flu in the USA) down by 5x from WHO's original 3.4% that helped spark the panic. Data is from China so take it with a grain of salt. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...countries.html

When this is all said and done and CDC analyzes this I'll bet we are at something like 0.2-0.3% case fatality rate in USA or 2-3x the seasonal flu. This is my SWAG (scientific wild azz guess).

[FireCloud9]

Covid-19: deaths outside hospitals to be included in UK tally for first time

[SAN compnerd]

Covid-19: deaths outside hospitals to be included in UK tally for first time

Doesn't that make this data not comparible to any past incident where they didn't count deaths outside hospitals (yes)?

Why would they change this in the middle of the worst pandemic in a century? Smells rotten to me, like an attempt to inflate the number of deaths.

[Chewy65]

Maybe it has to do with China's most recent decision to include "asymptomatic" cases outside the hospitals.

[walterSOBCHAK]

Small sample size I know, but 4 people have died of the 125 cases in my county. That's over 3%. I dont get too caught up in the numbers though, because so few are tested and so many are asymptomatic.

[FireCloud9]

Doesn't that make this data not comparible to any past incident where they didn't count deaths outside hospitals (yes)?

Why would they change this in the middle of the worst pandemic in a century? Smells rotten to me, like an attempt to inflate the number of deaths.

I would think that in most countries, the dead that is being counted comes from hospitals.

Some emergency number calls may result in removal of dead bodies from homes and transported, so those may also be captured somewhere.

However, for the people that live alone and were unable or did not call for help, it'll be some time before all those dead bodies are tested postmortem (assuming they have the test kits) and counted.

China did not count asymptomatic patients and from crematorium and urn records, it is suspected that a lot more died than counted in China's numbers.

Similarly, in some countries they are not recording deaths as COVID-19 even with those that tested positive and died as a result - they are recording deaths as pneumonia or flu or by co-morbidity if the patient had a pre-existing condition.

[JohnnyMtn]

China is supposedly covering up 40,000 deaths. So their rate will most certainly shoot up, if we ever come to know the real numbers.

[JohnnyMtn]

[ibanezfoo]

Probably a lot of immunity built up as they all live on top of each other.