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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #1  
Old 01-02-2019, 11:33 AM
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harbormaster harbormaster is offline
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Default 4th Turning - 80 Year Cycles

https://www.businessinsider.com/book...turning-2017-2

Its an interesting theory. The main stream in this article sure hates the idea and thinks its believers are kooks.

80 years from 2020: 1940 hmm war
80 years from 1940: 1860 hmm war
80 years from 1860: 1780 hmm war just ended

So how do you prep for war?
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  #2  
Old 01-02-2019, 11:54 AM
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Civilians in war zones have historically never done very well. Additional preps simply make them a target for the military to come take their stuff.

Foreknowledge of the future and leaving the conflict area is the best bet.
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  #3  
Old 01-02-2019, 12:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by harbormaster View Post
https://www.businessinsider.com/book...turning-2017-2

Its an interesting theory. The main stream in this article sure hates the idea and thinks its believers are kooks.

80 years from 2020: 1940 hmm war
80 years from 1940: 1860 hmm war
80 years from 1860: 1780 hmm war just ended

So how do you prep for war?
Honestly, the best way to prep for war in the nuclear era or extreme liberal mindset befalling your nation is to have a 2nd passport.
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  #4  
Old 01-02-2019, 12:20 PM
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What happened to WW1?

Yeah, sounds kooky.

Here’s my theory: human history is rife with large conflicts, and in all probability more are to come. ( Buy my latest book! )

— Michael
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  #5  
Old 01-02-2019, 1:07 PM
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Originally Posted by elSquid View Post
What happened to WW1?

Yeah, sounds kooky.

Here’s my theory: human history is rife with large conflicts, and in all probability more are to come. ( Buy my latest book! )

— Michael
There is a valid arguement that WWI and WWII were all just one big war with a cease fire in between.

The cyclic nature of history is well known. This is one theory.

I think a better one is outlined in Ages of Discord by Turchin

http://peterturchin.com/ages-of-discord/

They are all pointing to the same thing thought. During the 2020s something fundamental is going to change in the world.
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  #6  
Old 01-02-2019, 3:17 PM
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This isn't one of those high fa-looting Mayan calendars is it. The only thing it was good for was wiping my butt with it.

Really ?. Join a cult and find out just how crazy we all are.


I don't believe in fortune cookies also.
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  #7  
Old 01-02-2019, 4:36 PM
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Wars and rumors of wars...
When the end comes, all I want to know is who started it so I can punch them in the nuts until they pass out. And then I'll go to work on 'em.

Sent using a long string and 2 used soup cans
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  #8  
Old 01-02-2019, 5:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unusedusername View Post
Civilians in war zones have historically never done very well. Additional preps simply make them a target for the military to come take their stuff.

Foreknowledge of the future and leaving the conflict area is the best bet.



Yep. If the Gap Band drops a bomb on you, baby, THAT'S ok!



If Rep. Dipsh-... I mean... "Swallow" ... drops the big one, you're in trouble.
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  #9  
Old 01-02-2019, 5:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobB35 View Post
There is a valid arguement that WWI and WWII were all just one big war with a cease fire in between.

The cyclic nature of history is well known. This is one theory.

I think a better one is outlined in Ages of Discord by Turchin

http://peterturchin.com/ages-of-discord/

They are all pointing to the same thing thought. During the 2020s something fundamental is going to change in the world.
That's the predictive power of the theory?

"Something fundamental"? During a decade?



-- Michael
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  #10  
Old 01-02-2019, 5:23 PM
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  #11  
Old 01-03-2019, 7:21 AM
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The actual wars may be a distraction to the theory based on start and stop dates. For instance they noted the revolution "began" in 1773 with the boston tea party and didn't really end until after 1790 with the constitution suggesting the era of the articles of confederation was still one of great strife;

They noted that 10-15 years after the 5 year civil war was equally difficult for the people and that the world war era I and II had economic chaos in between for many countries (US included).

What I find intriguing is the change in generations over these periods. We currently mock the millennials and call the next generation the "Zombies" and sadly there may be something too it as they lead us into the next 80 year conflict. You could well say that has already begun since 9/11.
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  #12  
Old 01-05-2019, 10:59 PM
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Meh.
If you stare at anything long enough, you start to see patterns, mostly imaginary.

ps. The 80 year coincidental interval for WWI is the Texas War of independence 1835-1836.
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  #13  
Old 01-06-2019, 12:55 AM
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There is about a 12 hour interval between me drinking a Gin and Tonic...
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  #14  
Old 01-07-2019, 9:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinB View Post
This isn't one of those high fa-looting Mayan calendars is it. The only thing it was good for was wiping my butt with it.

Really ?. Join a cult and find out just how crazy we all are.


I don't believe in fortune cookies also.
All the Mayan calendars I have seen were carved out of stone . . . if you're wiping your but with it you're not only tougher than anyone I know, you also have horrible hygiene!
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  #15  
Old 01-08-2019, 7:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChuckD View Post
All the Mayan calendars I have seen were carved out of stone . . . if you're wiping your but with it you're not only tougher than anyone I know, you also have horrible hygiene!
Then again, I have never seen a original, just the paper copies. Best part is we are all still here, but some of us are still smarter than others.

Personally I question anybody that takes any credence about the prediction of the end of the world and the prediction makers are dead already. I think they missed the point, not unlike yourself.

Last edited by KevinB; 01-08-2019 at 8:11 AM..
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  #16  
Old 01-08-2019, 9:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chsk9 View Post
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  #17  
Old 01-08-2019, 9:49 AM
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Any truly random distribution will have patterns & trends. The problem is that they are useless in prediction because you never know when they're going to end & start a new trend.

Years back, a bunch of stock traders were shown a price sequence. Some gave bullish explanations. Others bearish. All recognized the pattern as familiar and readable. All were dismayed to learn that the sequence was simply generated by coin flips.
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