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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #41  
Old 11-25-2023, 8:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duck Killer View Post
Please explain how?
Pull up a chart on the price of gold....
Pick a 10 year window and calculate the annual return
Now what did a 10 year treasury return? What about a no load SPY?

1996/1998 the European market was dumping gold and the price dropped.

There can be dips when it's a better buy.....

But on a 10 year hold, it has not done well compared to other investments.




All the ads.... who is paying for all the ads for gold?
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Rule 2 -NEVER LET THE MUZZLE COVER ANYTHING YOU ARE NOT PREPARED TO DESTROY (including your hands and legs)

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Last edited by hermosabeach; 11-25-2023 at 8:54 PM..
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  #42  
Old 11-25-2023, 9:01 PM
4DSJW 4DSJW is offline
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Originally Posted by five.five-six View Post
2,000 years ago Judas was given 30 oz of silver to kiss a guy in public. I'm told it was worth roughly a weeks salary for an experienced carpenter.

silver is trading at $25/oz today..$750 for 30 oz

Well... not really. Judas was given 30 PIECES of silver, not ounces. I'm not sure who told you what an experienced carpenter earned at the time, but I would consider that info as very suspect. Historians tend to agree that most likely, Judas was paid in the Tyrian Shekel. Those coins weighed 14 grams and contained 94% silver. So in reality it was only about 12.7 OZt of pure silver. You are welcome to do the difficult research and get back to us on the actual purchasing power of 30 Tyrian Shekels at that point in time, and how it compares to the purchasing power of 12.7 OZt of pure silver today ($317.50). I would think that with the societal changes that have occurred, and the substantial rise in the valuing of human labor, there is no way to make an accurate comparison.

I have heard that in some big cities with high crime rates you can have someone killed for as little as $50 (~ 2 OZt of silver). I can cherry pick eye catching, but useless, info too. PM's holding their value is not a perfectly linear scale, as I noted in my post. Add to that the fact that the Au/Ag ratio has changed quite a bit over the centuries, and you will see that all things are not actually equal (they rarely are). However, compare a broad range of commodities, taking into account the value that has been added or removed by modern production techniques, labor costs, economy of scale, and the price effect on those commodities, and then look at the long term value of PM's. Getting back to my original point, PM's are not investments that earn money, they are assets that tend to hold their value over a long period of time.
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  #43  
Old 11-25-2023, 10:15 PM
Duck Killer Duck Killer is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hermosabeach View Post
Pull up a chart on the price of gold....
Pick a 10 year window and calculate the annual return
Now what did a 10 year treasury return? What about a no load SPY?

1996/1998 the European market was dumping gold and the price dropped.

There can be dips when it's a better buy.....

But on a 10 year hold, it has not done well compared to other investments.




All the ads.... who is paying for all the ads for gold?
Still not understanding how gold should be used to transfer wealth from a failing economy to a rising economy?

Real state and different forms passive incomes are way better of an investment then moving your money to gold. In which in most cases is not liquid when you need it. Protecting wealth in a downturn is about limiting your liabilities and maximizing your assets before and during a downturn. For example not being in debt while still bring in income.
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  #44  
Old 11-26-2023, 10:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Duck Killer View Post
Buy junk silver coins. Or silver dollars and halves. Silver has the best upside compared to gold. Plus it is easier to sell and potentially buy stuff with.
I'm watching the Morphy's auction in a couple weeks since I consider war weapons and NFA items a good vehicle to park value in as well as they can be used for their intended purpose to protect our lives and property and attack enemies. Good bang for the buck, so to speak.

However, after reading this thread, I looked through the catalog of silver and gold coins on offer and note that interest is brisk in advance of the in-person auction. Thanks for the tips. I'm always open to revisiting survival strategies.
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  #45  
Old 11-27-2023, 1:00 AM
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IMO any real world IRL gold transactions will have very high "transaction cost" AKA 'security issues'.

How much will it cost to hire hired guns to protect you and your gold in a transaction and can you trust them. How many times can you trust them? What is your life worth, to you and to them?

Will you be able to 'armor' you operation against a sneak attack enough so that it wont be profitable to try it? But what about Desperadoes with a radically different risk/profit calculation. It SOP with Mexican cartels to use kidnapped family members to extort victims to undertake risky criminal operations they would normally balk at due to bad risk/reward ratio. They gonna be running "zombies" and suicide commandos at you.
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  #46  
Old 11-27-2023, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Big Chudungus View Post
IMO any real world IRL gold transactions will have very high "transaction cost" AKA 'security issues'.

How much will it cost to hire hired guns to protect you and your gold in a transaction and can you trust them. How many times can you trust them? What is your life worth, to you and to them?

Will you be able to 'armor' you operation against a sneak attack enough so that it wont be profitable to try it? But what about Desperadoes with a radically different risk/profit calculation. It SOP with Mexican cartels to use kidnapped family members to extort victims to undertake risky criminal operations they would normally balk at due to bad risk/reward ratio. They gonna be running "zombies" and suicide commandos at you.
That is one of the reason silver is better to have. With junk silver coins it is easier to pay small amounts plus it looks like change so no one will ever really know you have silver.
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  #47  
Old 11-28-2023, 12:09 PM
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One thing that is overlooked about silver and gold are the people who spend money as fast as they get it. For some cash burns a hole in there pocket. So buying PMs are a way of getting the fix from spending money while still saving.
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  #48  
Old 11-30-2023, 4:42 PM
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Originally Posted by audiophil2 View Post
If you've never traveled outside the USA you won't appreciate the value of gold.
USA sells extremely overpriced 10-14k gold in malls and makes the big money on worthless rocks.

Go outside the USA and you will find gold dominates for emergency funds and land is used for long term loans. There are hardly any non asset backed loans outside the USA.

So if I want to transfer wealth outside USA I would use gold. It coverts easily in other countries. In Thailand there are at least 5 gold stores on a single block in many areas. They display the big/ask price daily outside. No scams. The premium is in the artwork and labor but bullion is very close to spot.

People that think gold is a bad investment simply don't understand the difference between an asset and an artificial fiat. While the stock market has outperformed it can easily go to zero at any time. The smart ones make the money in the stock market and funnel the profits into land and gold. The only thing suppressing gold is the simple fact that if it is allowed to appreciate the entire world would be at war. Look at what happened when gold went from $20-33 overnight. Then from $33 to $800 in a few years. We just got lazy and felt good was a bad investment because it went from $800 to $300 and stayed there for decades. But then it went from $300-2000 and now $2000 is the norm. What happens when $2000 is the bottom?

How is gold not increasing in cost when the fake inflation numbers are at 7%? Food, gas, housing all inflating but gold not. Only those that think it is not an investment don't see the future. I see what happened when gold went from $300-2000 and expect this next move to be an absolute nightmare.

You are right. People in the US don't see gold like the rest of the world, or at least the developing countries do. Gold is not the most profitable investment, but it is the best way to store value. When the communists took over a country, the first thing they did was to abolish the current currency, and issue new one. People got to exchange old bills to new one, and there was a limit of how much people could exchange. In a way, this was a reset, and everyone started at the same line, with the same amount of money. If people had gold back then, there were no need to do anything and just sat on it for years until the government loosen its grip.
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  #49  
Old 12-01-2023, 10:11 AM
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gold is useless and has no value especially when poop hits the fan. so i'll buy them from you $100 per 1oz. that's a lot of $$$ for useless pm.
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  #50  
Old 12-01-2023, 2:22 PM
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An interesting scenario to posit would be what would someone with purportedly worthless gold need in SHTF to make filling that need profitable for the supplier?

I watched a tiny version of that play out across the road when my neighbor's water system went out and the only two well companies in the region either were too busy or wouldn't work on a hand dug well. In SHTF would I be smart to take gold at a discounted rate to bring the manna of life, water, back to a thirsty person?
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  #51  
Old 12-02-2023, 9:59 PM
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An interesting scenario to posit would be what would someone with purportedly worthless gold need in SHTF to make filling that need profitable for the supplier?

I watched a tiny version of that play out across the road when my neighbor's water system went out and the only two well companies in the region either were too busy or wouldn't work on a hand dug well. In SHTF would I be smart to take gold at a discounted rate to bring the manna of life, water, back to a thirsty person?
This is exactly it. In an SHTF scenario that never recovers, gold and silver may be shiny, but you can't eat it nor make a shelter out of it.

More likely, the grid down will recover and if you've been taking gold in exchange for needed items, then eventually you'll have quite the little nest egg. Heck, I even read somewhere that having some alcohol in your private little stash could be very beneficial. A little whiskey, bourbon, wine...even a bottle of Jose Cuervo. What's cool is I don't drink, so it would not be a problem having around.
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  #52  
Old 12-02-2023, 11:49 PM
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This is exactly it. In an SHTF scenario that never recovers, gold and silver may be shiny, but you can't eat it nor make a shelter out of it.

More likely, the grid down will recover and if you've been taking gold in exchange for needed items, then eventually you'll have quite the little nest egg. Heck, I even read somewhere that having some alcohol in your private little stash could be very beneficial. A little whiskey, bourbon, wine...even a bottle of Jose Cuervo. What's cool is I don't drink, so it would not be a problem having around.
Like the alcohol you mentioned, a barter system can only take you so far economically speaking. Yes in a SHTF situation initially barter of ammo food women will be normal. Eventually there will be a need for a medium to balance the value of exchange of goods and services that don?t equal out in a barter situation n a barter system.
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  #53  
Old 12-02-2023, 11:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Supersapper View Post

More likely, the grid down will recover and if you've been taking gold in exchange for needed items, then eventually you'll have quite the little nest egg. Heck, I even read somewhere that having some alcohol in your private little stash could be very beneficial. A little whiskey, bourbon, wine...even a bottle of Jose Cuervo. What's cool is I don't drink, so it would not be a problem having around.
tobacco and coffee are good for bartering too.
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  #54  
Old 12-03-2023, 7:30 AM
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I may be one of few people, but I've never viewed gold or silver in a monetary sense. Only as a trade item.

Theres more important metals to have and the ability to manipulate the metals into a usable product, that would be more valuable the gold and silver.
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  #55  
Old 12-03-2023, 10:33 AM
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People who say precious metals are useless when the SHTF are right. If all you are doing is to prepare for when the SHTF, precious metals are not for you; stick to beans and bullets.

If you are taking a longer view, you will look to how to position yourself after the crisis phase passes and the rebuilding phase begins. Those with something to trade (skills or tangible assets) are going to be in a better position than those without.
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  #56  
Old 12-03-2023, 12:54 PM
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My grandparents lived a subsistence lifestyle but weren't totally self-sufficient. Occasionally they'd take the wagon or truck into town to either buy supplies at the general store or sell some of their farm goods.

At the time, during the 20's and later the Depression, it appeared that cash was still viewed as a stable currency of trade. The main issue was lack of confidence in the banking industry by some, my immigrant grandparents among them, particularly after the crash, and they'd stash cash at home.

I presume the topic under discussion is a more severe event, particularly considering that currency is no longer gold-backed, and that society as we know it now has broken down. Essentially nothing like what my grandparents navigated after arriving in America and during the Depression.

How do China, Russia and BRICS figure into that matrix? How much of the government is already under their influence? How does that influence play out in a practical sense in our everyday lives.

Anyone here remember anything like the Covid operation? On these slow rainy days here in Oregon I've been perusing the wanderings of scavengers who chronicle, with technology that wasn't around a generation or two ago, the derelict and shuttered businesses and industries that quietly continue to propagate across the landscape, and the impact on ordinary citizens.

Yesterday I pulled out a big plastic tub of nails I'd pulled out of the thousands of board feet of decking I salvaged at the CA place before selling it. Some are straight, some are bent. In SHTF if someone wanted to build a chicken coop and had the wood and the general store in town no longer existed, what value would those nails have? Sure, there are other ways of joining wood to build structures but nails are very simple and efficient.

Let's say it isn't totally apocalyptic and the general store is still there but nails are very expensive due to hyper-inflation and lack of confidence in currency. Would the store take gold, or perhaps require gold, for purchase?

IMO there are no perfect answers or solutions. Some suggest not worrying about things outside of our control. Living our best life. Perhaps that philosophy is healthier. I'll contemplate it while straightening those nails this week
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  #57  
Old 12-03-2023, 2:34 PM
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....Yesterday I pulled out a big plastic tub of nails I'd pulled out of the thousands of board feet of decking I salvaged at the CA place before selling it. Some are straight, some are bent. In SHTF if someone wanted to build a chicken coop and had the wood and the general store in town no longer existed, what value would those nails have?....
It is said that there are two ways to make money. 1- have something to sell, 2- know how to do something others are willing to pay you for. I think you've got both covered and should be well positioned in the coming struggle!
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  #58  
Old 12-03-2023, 6:46 PM
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Like the alcohol you mentioned, a barter system can only take you so far economically speaking. Yes in a SHTF situation initially barter of ammo food women will be normal. Eventually there will be a need for a medium to balance the value of exchange of goods and services that don?t equal out in a barter situation n a barter system.
Completely agree. I did acknowledge that eventually things would have to stabilize and that the likelihood is that any situation would recover to pre-SHTF after some time. A true grid down situation that never recovers will be something very few can really imagine.
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  #59  
Old 12-05-2023, 12:23 PM
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If you have land,
If you have clean water supplies,
If you have an abundance of food, electricity, fuel,
If you have those things - what are you going to pay that security with? You have genuine and legitimate concerns about "security" issues around a gold / silver transaction. I agree with that. So you need people? What will you be paying them with?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Chudungus View Post
IMO any real world IRL gold transactions will have very high "transaction cost" AKA 'security issues'.

How much will it cost to hire hired guns to protect you and your gold in a transaction and can you trust them. How many times can you trust them? What is your life worth, to you and to them?

Will you be able to 'armor' you operation against a sneak attack enough so that it wont be profitable to try it? But what about Desperadoes with a radically different risk/profit calculation. It SOP with Mexican cartels to use kidnapped family members to extort victims to undertake risky criminal operations they would normally balk at due to bad risk/reward ratio. They gonna be running "zombies" and suicide commandos at you.
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  #60  
Old 12-05-2023, 12:32 PM
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Originally Posted by hermosabeach View Post
Pull up a chart on the price of gold....
Pick a 10 year window and calculate the annual return
Now what did a 10 year treasury return? What about a no load SPY?

1996/1998 the European market was dumping gold and the price dropped.

There can be dips when it's a better buy.....

But on a 10 year hold, it has not done well compared to other investments.




All the ads.... who is paying for all the ads for gold?
If you're comparing gold to the S&P500 as an investment, it's not even close on any relevant time scale. See attached.
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File Type: jpg SP500.jpg (15.2 KB, 11 views)
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