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Coronavirus/COVID19 Temp Forum This is a temporary forum for discussion, debate, sharing and helping each other during and in relation to the Coronavirus/COVID19

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  #1  
Old 05-11-2021, 10:37 AM
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Default CDC bad at math: Calls 0.1% "Less than 10 percent"

The federal propaganda arm has come out and issued a startling truth.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...an-10-percent/

Quote:
The CDC has published a technically true — but profoundly misleading — statistic about the chance of outdoor infection. The story is brought to us by New York Times journalist David Leonhardt in his daily, “The Morning Newsletter”:

When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines last month for mask wearing, it announced that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission was occurring outdoors. Media organizations repeated the statistic, and it quickly became a standard description of the frequency of outdoor transmission.

So, what’s the actual number?

The number is almost certainly misleading. It appears to be based partly on a misclassification of some Covid transmission that actually took place in enclosed spaces (as I explain below). An even bigger issue is the extreme caution of C.D.C. officials, who picked a benchmark — 10 percent — so high that nobody could reasonably dispute it.

That benchmark “seems to be a huge exaggeration,” as Dr. Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrews, said. In truth, the share of transmission that has occurred outdoors seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent, multiple epidemiologists told me.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics

Last edited by sd_shooter; 05-11-2021 at 10:39 AM..
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  #2  
Old 05-11-2021, 10:46 AM
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Why are you killing Grandma?

COVID FREAKOUT FOREVER!!
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  #3  
Old 05-11-2021, 10:49 AM
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Well, I mean... 0.1% IS less than 10%
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Old 05-11-2021, 11:52 AM
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Reminds me of the Soviet propoganda re race to put a man on the moon. USSR 2nd place USA next to last.
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  #5  
Old 05-11-2021, 12:39 PM
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Translation to the OP title: The CDC lied for over a year for political purposes while ignoring the science.
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  #6  
Old 05-11-2021, 12:42 PM
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well, at less then 100% of calgunners agree with you.
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Old 05-11-2021, 1:32 PM
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jimmykan
Well, I mean... 0.1% IS less than 10%

This!
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  #8  
Old 05-11-2021, 1:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SAN compnerd View Post
Translation to the OP title: The CDC lied for over a year for political purposes while ignoring the science.
At this point, is this really a surprise to anyone anymore?
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  #9  
Old 05-11-2021, 1:58 PM
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Originally Posted by bigbossman View Post
At this point, is this really a surprise to anyone anymore?
Not to be a smart *** but that only applies to people with common sense. Look how many people here even post and brag about taking the shot when they bothered to do no research considering it’s totally experimental and yet they still took it so unfortunately no it’s not that obvious.

Those type of people called sheep
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  #10  
Old 05-11-2021, 2:24 PM
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Originally Posted by jimmykan View Post
Well, I mean... 0.1% IS less than 10%
it's closer to less than 1%, hence the deception...
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  #11  
Old 05-11-2021, 3:01 PM
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Centers for Deceptive Crap and Propaganda?

the cdc has a flu reporting network called FluSurv-NET.
this is a number of places scattered about the US that is "representative" of the entire country.
the cdc gets their flu numbers every year from this network, and they make projections and estimates from these numbers.
in 2019 they tested 1.3 million for seasonal flu. these are folks with fever that are sick enough to visit a doctor or emergency room (within that network)
only about 19% or 242k actually had the flu
of those, 24k had to be admitted to hospital.
of those, about 2400 died, or 1% of the positive flu cases.

from these numbers, the cdc says between 30-50 million americans had the flu, and the death rate was 0.05%? somebody check my math.

Quote:
During the 2019-2020 influenza season, CDC estimates that influenza was associated with 38 million illnesses, 18 million medical visits, 405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths.Oct 6, 2020
something is funny with their math, or it should be 380k deaths.

Last edited by theLBC; 05-11-2021 at 3:04 PM..
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  #12  
Old 05-11-2021, 3:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M76 View Post
it's closer to less than 1%, hence the deception...
It's even closer to half a percent...

I'll leave the next "closer" for the next guy...
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  #13  
Old 05-11-2021, 4:03 PM
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That works out to 10%..........10% is correct......10% of that 1% chance that is. In other words, they were only exaggerating by 100x.
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  #14  
Old 05-11-2021, 4:04 PM
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masks could be effective in preventing more than 0.000000005% of the cases.
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  #15  
Old 05-11-2021, 4:10 PM
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I would venture that since they managed to convince the masses that Biden got more votes than any other presidential candidate in history they could be loose in any future numerical declarations?
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  #16  
Old 05-11-2021, 5:38 PM
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"CDC bad at math: Calls 0.1% "Less than 10 percent"

I hope head of CDC is not Asian
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  #17  
Old 05-11-2021, 6:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sd_shooter View Post
The federal propaganda arm has come out and issued a startling truth.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...an-10-percent/



Lies, damned lies, and statistics


Crap.....I was holding that sweet Twain quote to drop at the opportune time.
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  #18  
Old 05-11-2021, 6:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sfe187 View Post
"CDC bad at math: Calls 0.1% "Less than 10 percent"

I hope head of CDC is not Asian
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  #19  
Old 05-11-2021, 6:37 PM
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Originally Posted by CGT80 View Post
That works out to 10%..........10% is correct......10% of that 1% chance that is. In other words, they were only exaggerating by 100x.
0.001, sounds legit.
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Old 05-12-2021, 8:01 AM
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I've seen defense attorneys use this statistical lie. They show you documents that say the accuracy of the procedure is +/- 0.01 as tested at the 0.10 level. They show you a study that says that at the 0.02 level the answer could be 0.01, 0.02, or 0.03. That is true. They then make the leap that at the 0.10 level the accuracy is +/- 50%. That is a lie. The accuracy tested is +/- 0.01 at the 0.10 level. It is really +/- 10%.

This technique is a way to deliberately use statistics to lie to the uninformed.

Last edited by Scota4570; 05-12-2021 at 4:47 PM..
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Old 05-27-2021, 10:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theLBC View Post
Centers for Deceptive Crap and Propaganda?

the cdc has a flu reporting network called FluSurv-NET.
this is a number of places scattered about the US that is "representative" of the entire country.
the cdc gets their flu numbers every year from this network, and they make projections and estimates from these numbers.
in 2019 they tested 1.3 million for seasonal flu. these are folks with fever that are sick enough to visit a doctor or emergency room (within that network)
only about 19% or 242k actually had the flu
of those, 24k had to be admitted to hospital.
of those, about 2400 died, or 1% of the positive flu cases.

from these numbers, the cdc says between 30-50 million americans had the flu, and the death rate was 0.05%? somebody check my math.



something is funny with their math, or it should be 380k deaths.
exactly. Assume the 1.3M represent 99% of people sick enough with flu to need a doctor visit.
That implies 1.3M out of the entire population.

Instead they say 242k / 1.3M x 330M = 61M people had the flu.

But that ignores the self-selection bias of only people sick with flu go to a doctor.

so the correct calcuation is 242k / 330M = 0.073%

even assume the 242K only represent 50% of those who have it, that still only gets to 0.15%

or TLDR version..
2,400 total people died of flu... representing XX% of actual flu deaths.
I posit XX% >= 90%

Last edited by Libertarian777; 05-27-2021 at 11:08 AM..
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  #22  
Old 05-28-2021, 8:14 AM
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Technically not incorrect.

"Less than 90% of vaccine recipients die within hours" is also technically not incorrect either.
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Old 05-28-2021, 8:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2shotjoe View Post
well, at less then 100% of calgunners agree with you.
Well, actually, a number of them do.
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Old 05-28-2021, 8:23 AM
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It's a good thing that the evil western white math isn't being taught these days. The upcoming generation won't know the difference and will believe their supreme leaders. They simply won't have enough education to question what they are being told.
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