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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #1  
Old 12-20-2018, 10:54 PM
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Default Second XFirstX marker on the long slide ...

It's pretty minor, and this isn't the first time this kind of thing has been reported - Some postal workers say they falsify deliveries to make quotas, USPS disputes claims
Quote:
SAN FRANCISCO (KTVU) - A U.S. Postal Service employee in San Francisco and two in Salt Lake City say they are being pressured to falsify delivery notifications in order to maintain delivery rates this holiday season.
But this is the first time that even slightly credible accusations have been made that implicate low-level official policy.

Doesn't matter about the claimed lack of resources; instead of griping publicly about that problem, some folks are being accused of lying about it for personal benefit.

Now, other folks have seemed to say they believe we've been in the handbasket for some years now, and if you're using a different scale for that, you may be right.

But my scale starts where public services - in this case mail - become less trustworthy across a wide area; individual letter carriers have been found to have been keeping 4th Class mail at home maybe once or twice per year for decades. (Given the content, that's almost a public service.)

Something like the 'broken windows theory'
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Briefly, the model focuses on the importance of disorder (e.g., broken windows) in generating and sustaining more serious crime. Disorder is not directly linked to serious crime; instead, disorder leads to increased fear and withdrawal from residents, which then allows more serious crime to move in because of decreased levels of informal social control.
would suggest if such behaviors are 1) accurately reported and 2) allowed to continue, Things Are Gonna Get Worse.

And when have we last seen a government operation self-correct?

So, this hit my tripwire; this is my point to start guessing about how long it'll take until we are substantially without trusted public services - and what to do about it.

"Mail" isn't the issue on its own. Mail is a convenience for most, and a lot of commercial, high-value stuff goes by courier/UPS/FedEx/DHL whatever anyway (which, of course is taking business and money-to-fix-problems away from USPS)

But, look farther out at, say, PG&E. I can't say that deliberate negligence in maintaining their equipment and lines is currently an issue. But gas line explosions and forest fires the last couple of years have been associated with their services, and courts seem to want to blame somebody ...

What happens if PG&E management decides things are just too hard, too complicated, too expensive, and part of a game rigged against them - and they respond with gutting the company and moving themselves and the money to Venezuela? (Don't suggest a government takeover - then instead of executives fleeing at time T it'll be bureaucrats fleeing at time T+5 or 10 years, or maybe both, sequentially)

This is like waiting for the minor toothache to either go away or turn into sepsis and kill you.
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Last edited by Librarian; 12-20-2018 at 10:59 PM..
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Old 12-20-2018, 11:07 PM
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IIRC, this isn't the first time this has happened.
Consider the VA and their fabulous record.
Government bureaucrats have always lied and cheated to make their goals.
I really don't think this is anything new.
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Old 12-21-2018, 8:00 AM
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The lack of proper and truthful oversight always causes systemic problems for the public at large. No matter if it's a govt entity or a highly govt controlled/regulated business.

When govt is in charge of any project/department there is a fiefdom mentality where by the mission of the fiefdom/department's only goal is to grow the department and it's budget.

Their numbers must attain a certain level to remain relevant in the legislative eyes in order to get more funding or at least maintain current levels. Fake the numbers by burning any surplus of the department budget to keep the spending at current levels. Burning extra money to buy new office furniture that's not needed? Sure. It's OPM any way. (other people's money) The mob used to call this "leakage" or an expected loss.

All other considerations are secondary.
Power, water,medical care, food production and housing are all affected by how the govt regulates our lives and that includes how they spend our money.

I predict that services will continue to go downhill and the lack of honest govt oversight will help it to pick up speed. I just don't know what the specific trigger will look like, but we'll be the last to know.

"Find out just what the people will submit to and you have found out the exact amount of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them and these will continue until they are resisted with either words or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress."
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Old 12-21-2018, 8:14 AM
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"Former San Bruno Mayor Jim Ruane can't believe it. The California Public Utilities Commission is accusing PG&E of falsifying safety documents for Natural Gas pipelines for years, following its criminal conviction for the San Bruno Pipeline explosion in 2010 which killed eight people.

The CPUC has opened a case against PG&E. Its investigation has revealed the company failed to 'mark' natural gas lines because of low staffing and "pressured" supervisors to falsify safety records between 2012 and 2017.

CPUC President Michael Picker said in a statement, "Utility falsification of safety-related records is a serious violation of the law and diminishes our trust in the utility's reports on their progress."
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Old 12-21-2018, 11:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GW View Post
IIRC, this isn't the first time this has happened.
Consider the VA and their fabulous record.
Government bureaucrats have always lied and cheated to make their goals.
I really don't think this is anything new.
I think VA, while bad, is a different character of problem from the alleged actions I linked to. Seems to me, VA is suffering from incompetent/no leadership more than personal financial benefit activities by some individuals.

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Originally Posted by FeuerFrei View Post
The lack of proper and truthful oversight always causes systemic problems for the public at large. No matter if it's a govt entity or a highly govt controlled/regulated business.

...

I just don't know what the specific trigger will look like, but we'll be the last to know.
Thus some form of 'tripwire', a sensitivity to things from which one may infer a trend. The real problem, of course, is even with a month or a year's warning what do we do when the power goes out?

"I don't care if the electricity is out; we'll just watch TV in the dark."
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Old 12-21-2018, 8:21 PM
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The unraveling of society has taken decades longer than I expected but it seems to be happening at an accelerated rate now.

As a mid 60s guy with health issues, I won't live to see the wheels come off but I fear for my children and grandchildren.
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Old 12-21-2018, 8:37 PM
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Quit giving bonuses and they will quit lying and admit .gov employees are lazy SOBs and they well never come in on budget or on time.
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Old 12-22-2018, 8:07 AM
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It’s not the first mark....we’re halfway down the chute
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Old 12-22-2018, 1:58 PM
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Pg@E is a Terrorist organization. Poisoning U.s. citizens , burning and Blowing up our Neighborhoods. Of the Things we as Consumers and Citizens know about . Imagine what we dont know about. Look at The Town of Hinkley the cover up and lies went all the way to the top. Drive around Your neighborhood look at the trees in the power lines , Rotted Powerpoles ones that literally look like they are going to Fall over.
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Old 12-23-2018, 4:46 PM
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How about DWR and the Oroville dam fiasco last year? Maintenance issues and known faults were ignored for decades, putting everyone downstream at risk.

As a resident a few miles away down in the floodplain, it sure doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling.
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Old 12-23-2018, 6:07 PM
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How about DWR and the Oroville dam fiasco last year? Maintenance issues and known faults were ignored for decades, putting everyone downstream at risk.

As a resident a few miles away down in the floodplain, it sure doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling.
'Shifting The Blame' and 'Pretending There Is No Problem Because It Might Reflect Badly On Me' is merely human nature; the damage a government agency may do/allow when the management is that timid can, of course, be monumental.

That such folks can rise to positions of (I'm Afraid To Exercise Any) authority is probably a reason to expect overall deterioration, but it's less a discrete marker than an appalling trend.

ETA took a bit to find this ---
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Last edited by Librarian; 12-23-2018 at 7:10 PM..
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Old 12-23-2018, 11:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Librarian View Post
I think VA, while bad, is a different character of problem from the alleged actions I linked to. Seems to me, VA is suffering from incompetent/no leadership more than personal financial benefit activities by some individuals.
But people died while those jack holes lied about cases handled and reaped bonuses as a result.

Thus some form of 'tripwire', a sensitivity to things from which one may infer a trend. The real problem, of course, is even with a month or a year's warning what do we do when the power goes out?
The smart folks are prepared already

"I don't care if the electricity is out; we'll just watch TV in the dark."
Only if you have satellite because cable comes in on the same wires as electricity.
My two cents.
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Old 12-24-2018, 3:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GW View Post
The smart folks are prepared already

My two cents.
OK, I'll bite: what is the prep for 10 years or more while the general population is without electricity?
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Ann Althouse: “Begin with the hypothesis that what they did is what they wanted to do. If they postured that they wanted to do something else, regard that as a con. Work from there. The world will make much more sense.”

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Old 12-24-2018, 6:38 PM
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OK, I'll bite: what is the prep for 10 years or more while the general population is without electricity?
No power means no water. Things will sort its self out rather quickly.
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Old 12-24-2018, 11:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Librarian View Post
OK, I'll bite: what is the prep for 10 years or more while the general population is without electricity?
It isn't going to be 10 years. You're talking extinction level event for which there is no preparation. For anything other than that, at most you need a year's worth of food and supplies, including seeds. Solar and wind power can provide your electricity and pump your water. Have enough to get through winter and spring (till you harvest) and from there you become self-sustaining. Like folks did up until the last 130 or so years.
The general population will be mostly dead if the system fails for more than 60 days.
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Old 12-26-2018, 3:44 AM
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Folks in the Post Office lying????? Say it ain't so...

For me, it's nothing new. Having worked for the state and seeing how screwed up it is, has made me want to I crease my supply stores even more.

Government has been unreliable for quite some time and that trip wire went off a long time ago. I'm just waiting for the day the general public finally wakes up and sees that it happened too. THAT'S when the real S will HTF.
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Old 12-26-2018, 1:58 PM
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Came by this sideways, a few minutes ago.

The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper - what ties it to this thread is
Quote:
In 2010, 8.5 million tourists visited Syria, accounting for 14% of their entire GDP. Eight years later, they have almost half a million dead citizens, and ten million more displaced into Europe. They didn’t see this coming, because if they did, they would have fled sooner. Nobody notices the signs of impending doom unless they’re looking carefully.

Further, the elites of a nation rarely take it on the chin. They can hop on a plane. The poor, disenfranchised, and defenseless experience the preponderance of the suffering, violence, and death. They’re the ones that should be worried.

Pretend you’re someone with your eyes on the horizon. What would you be looking for, exactly?

Increasing partisanship. Civil disorder. Coup rhetoric. A widening wealth gap. A further entrenching oligarchy. Dysfunctional governance. The rise of violent extremist ideologies such as Nazism and Communism. Violent street protests. People marching with masks and dressing like the Italian Blackshirts. Attempts at large scale political assassination.

Any one of those might not necessarily be the canary in the coal mine, but all of them in aggregate might be alarming to someone with their eyes on the horizon. Someone with disproportionate faith in the state is naturally inclined to disregard these sorts of events as a cognitive bias, while someone with little faith in the state might take these signs to mean they should buy a few more boxes of ammunition.
(added a few <CR> to clarify a bit.)
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Old 12-26-2018, 3:31 PM
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I have noticed this more last year, and the year before, but not just Christmas.

Shown as "left in mailbox", or "on porch", when it hadn't arrived yet, but shows up the next day... but I hadn't seen this being an issue this year at all (because I queried them about it?).
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Old 01-07-2019, 3:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Librarian View Post
Came by this sideways, a few minutes ago.

The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper - what ties it to this thread is (added a few <CR> to clarify a bit.)
People in masks causing disorder? Like in Berkley? Communism? Socialism?

I worry about how those who cannot afford housing are going to fare in the upcoming years. There are more and more people who cannot afford housing and at some time, they will revolt. History repeats itself over and over.
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Old 01-07-2019, 5:51 AM
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People in masks causing disorder? Like in Berkley? Communism? Socialism?

I worry about how those who cannot afford housing are going to fare in the upcoming years. There are more and more people who cannot afford housing and at some time, they will revolt. History repeats itself over and over.

Interesting, maybe that's why all the cities around me keep authorizing high density home building/apartments.
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Old 01-07-2019, 5:00 PM
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OK, I'll bite: what is the prep for 10 years or more while the general population is without electricity?
Not to be morbid or anything, but you may as well pull your timeline in by quite a bit. If the GP is without power for more than 3-6 months it will be all over but the crying and the separation between the living and the dead will have a occurred.

Take a look at the grocery store and ask yourself how often do they turn over inventory? somewhere between 20 to 30 times per year....so after 2 weeks with no food inbound...whatever population supplied by that store will be out of food. go 5 times that 10 weeks and starvation will be ramapent 2X that or about 6 months and it will all be over.

That is what you have to survive
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Old 01-07-2019, 5:07 PM
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Here is a article about what happened in Bosina during the 90s.

https://www.theorganicprepper.com/sh...lco-americans/

Again...5 years before this, not on these peoples horizon.
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Old 01-07-2019, 9:52 PM
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Here is a article about what happened in Bosina during the 90s.

https://www.theorganicprepper.com/sh...lco-americans/

Again...5 years before this, not on these peoples horizon.
Interesting, if grim.

I wrote earlier
Quote:
But, look farther out at, say, PG&E. I can't say that deliberate negligence in maintaining their equipment and lines is currently an issue. But gas line explosions and forest fires the last couple of years have been associated with their services, and courts seem to want to blame somebody ...

What happens if PG&E management decides things are just too hard, too complicated, too expensive, and part of a game rigged against them - and they respond with gutting the company and moving themselves and the money to Venezuela? (Don't suggest a government takeover - then instead of executives fleeing at time T it'll be bureaucrats fleeing at time T+5 or 10 years, or maybe both, sequentially)
and today we have speculation about PG&E filing bankruptcy ...
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Old 01-13-2019, 9:07 AM
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Yellow Vest Movement - in the Americas?

Good article discussing possible triggers here and the western world...
https://www.mintpressnews.com/yellow...states/253573/
Quote:
Will ‘Yellow Vest’ Protests Come to the United States?

Many of the problems the French people suffer are also felt in the United States. The US economy has been designed for the wealthy for decades and billionaire President Trump-era policies have made that reality worse. People never fully recovered from the 2008 economic collapse when millions lost houses and jobs, got lower income and higher debt.

The globalized economy that has been designed for transnational corporations has not served the people in the United States well. The fly-over states of the Midwest have been left hollowed out. Rural hospitals are closing as the economy disappears. In urban areas across the country, decades of neglect and lack of investment have created impoverished conditions. Racist and violent policing have been used to prevent rebellion and contain the unrest. People are struggling. Addiction and suicide rates are up. There is vast hopelessness and despair.
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Old 01-13-2019, 2:34 PM
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Originally Posted by FeuerFrei View Post
Yellow Vest Movement - in the Americas?

Good article discussing possible triggers here and the western world...
https://www.mintpressnews.com/yellow...states/253573/


Written like a true communist. The dead giveaway was the bit about the green new deal.

Revolutions of the kind this moron is writing about are all socialist/communist in nature. And don’t read too much into the French vest thing. They aren’t anything akin to the tea party movement here. The French loves them their government, they just don’t like paying for it.

What most socialists of this authors ilk don’t get is that the problems they lament, big banks, evil corporations, etc., actually are socialism. They are not the result of free market capitalism at all. It the more socialist economies become the. Ore the socialists decry the results.

What will happen here is quite simple, and part of American history. There will be secession. There is right now precious little holding the red and blue states together.

Oh, and the day the music died was August 15, 1971. Look it up.


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Old 01-14-2019, 6:50 PM
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Interesting, if grim.

I wrote earlier and today we have speculation about PG&E filing bankruptcy ...
Yes, concerning. The CEO punched out.
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Old 03-18-2019, 12:44 PM
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I wrote
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(Don't suggest a government takeover - then instead of executives fleeing at time T it'll be bureaucrats fleeing at time T+5 or 10 years, or maybe both, sequentially)
Ummm ...

https://www.sfchronicle.com/business...t-13695651.php

Public takeover of PG&E? Sacramento’s past provides important lessons
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Old 02-03-2020, 8:27 AM
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So, this hit my tripwire; this is my point to start guessing about how long it'll take until we are substantially without trusted public services - and what to do about it.

"Mail" isn't the issue on its own. Mail is a convenience for most, and a lot of commercial, high-value stuff goes by courier/UPS/FedEx/DHL whatever anyway (which, of course is taking business and money-to-fix-problems away from USPS)

But, look farther out at, say, PG&E. I can't say that deliberate negligence in maintaining their equipment and lines is currently an issue. But gas line explosions and forest fires the last couple of years have been associated with their services, and courts seem to want to blame somebody ...

What happens if PG&E management decides things are just too hard, too complicated, too expensive, and part of a game rigged against them - and they respond with gutting the company and moving themselves and the money to Venezuela? (Don't suggest a government takeover - then instead of executives fleeing at time T it'll be bureaucrats fleeing at time T+5 or 10 years, or maybe both, sequentially)

This is like waiting for the minor toothache to either go away or turn into sepsis and kill you.
See the new thread, http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/s....php?t=1586760.

Oh, look, a wire! *trip*
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  #29  
Old 06-15-2020, 4:40 PM
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So, this hit my tripwire; this is my point to start guessing about how long it'll take until we are substantially without trusted public services - and what to do about it.
Hmm.

'Trusted public services', like police, like city administrations allowing emergency services to actually do their jobs ...

Another wire.

Just bought a new book, Concrete Jungle: A Green Beret's guide to Urban Survival. I think most of us should read it, if not own it.

Chapter 9 (no pages in the kindle edition)

Phase 1 - normal political disputes

Phase 2 - from 'people steal your yard signs and try to get you fired for certain political beliefs' to 'bigger riots like Chicago 1968'; may be quelled by police or National Guard

Phase 3 - gov't loses control, at least temporarily, of entire sections of the country.

Looks like we're moving into later phase 2...
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Old 06-15-2020, 4:52 PM
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Take a look at the grocery store and ask yourself how often do they turn over inventory? somewhere between 20 to 30 times per year....
Number seems to be about 3 weeks stock in store, by current estimates.
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  #31  
Old 06-16-2020, 9:06 AM
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John Q sees the trigger now.

Marching, screaming, burning, rioting and tearing down American icons. JQ sees them get a pass for breaking the law. All the while he's told the coofing virus will kill him when he goes outside or he becomes murderer while he takes a trip to the store without a mask.

At some near point he will realize the law is subjective and he just won't give a sheet about it. That's the breaking point IMO.
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