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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #1  
Old 05-09-2021, 9:04 PM
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Default Inflation: Not Yet

It seems obvious we are going to see some inflation, but how much? Will everything go up? We know ammo, lumber and some items have shot up, but are those inflation or limited supply impacting prices? Today I took a rare trip to Costco and was shocked.

16.49 Kirkland RP 425 dual sheet rolls, and in 2019 they were 16.99
2.99 36 bottle water plus CRV, same as 2019, 2015, and 2010 as best I recall,
10.49 8 cans of Kirkland Tuna, seems like it was 12.99 last I shopped for it,
7.99 shredded mini wheats,
10.99 for two 10lb bags of flour,
9.99 8 cans of Dennisonís chili,
8.99 8 cans of Bushís baked beans
5.99 two loafs of bread,
21.99 for 10 LBs of frozen chicken breast,

Now I was surprised and saddened they were out of those frozen hamburger beef logs I like. Bummer.

Not a lot of inflation....not yet
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  #2  
Old 05-09-2021, 9:06 PM
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It's coming. Hold your horses.
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  #3  
Old 05-09-2021, 9:47 PM
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The Dems will print enough money that your 401k won't buy you a hamburger. They know they can't just confiscate your savings directly, or kick you out of your house at gunpoint. But they can print money with impunity and it does the same thing.
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Old 05-10-2021, 5:12 AM
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IDK. We went to a well established pizza place Friday. Medium single topping pie, salad, 8 wings, 2 beers. $68 before the tip. $80 all in for LUNCH!
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Old 05-10-2021, 9:32 PM
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I agree it is early. It does appear the inflation cycle has formation. Prices will be aggressive and usually take a few earning cycles. (I would guess two quarters after reopening in summer or year end). Once material inventory is used, the next layer will have higher costs and usually priced into product cost. The real driver which will take some time is wage inflation. Labor usually is a significant factor on many companies P&L. When wage inflation drives the costs, especially with services, the cycle has moved into the next level and not there yet.

The other factor is the 10 year bond. Bond market is a great gauge of inflation. It is expected to be around 2% at end of year. If it starts to jump, then will be a good gauge inflation is growing faster than expected.

I am sure the $5.99 BK or Carls Jr. specials are now $6.99 and moving up.

Oil is a big inflation factor since fuel can be a large variable expense for many companies, especially in transportation. India and Europe have not increased world wide demand, yet they will once the COVID outbreaks stop and there is a vaccine. Summer will be a good indicator of the demand and supply of the US market. The real issue would be if oil jumps over $100 a barrel for a long extended period - indicated an inflation cycle. That would add fuel to the inflation.

This subject is now daily on the financial market news and focus. Short term, it is great for cyclicals and bad for growth stocks. You see quiet a few days were the DOW is up a lot and the NASDAQ gets hammered.
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Old 05-11-2021, 9:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TFA777 View Post
$4.50/gas will impact everything.
Also you're looking at prices not quantity.
Costco has already shrunk the size of the paper towel roll but kept the price the same.
Orange juice at regular grocery stores use to be 64oz, then 59oz, some are now 54oz

Shrinkflation is everywhere.
I got a couple looks at Albertson's the other day buying some Blue Bunny. I said - apparently louder than I realized - "What the hell happened to a 'half gallon' of ice cream?"
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Old 05-12-2021, 12:37 PM
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Prices fall and they rise. But for each one of us (unless our income is tied directly to the dollar) it comes down to the value of what we produce against the cost of what we need or want. Either our head is above water or we are drowning.
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  #8  
Old 05-12-2021, 1:06 PM
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Unlike last year; I think it would be wise to buy the TP now; if the price of wood is any indicator I'd say it reaches $25 a bundle by late summer.
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  #9  
Old 05-12-2021, 2:26 PM
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The floor used to be $5/OTZ, now seems to be 13-14...
The trend is always... UP...
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  #10  
Old 05-12-2021, 7:47 PM
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Your list is on the side of insignificant items, except chicken.

Standard used and purchased items are where the inflation is.

So get ahead of the problem that will be facing us on inflation and shortages. I would rater be called crazy and over prepared, then be one of those thats complaining about not having been prepared and looking for help.

So my motto is, if you dont think you need it, you should probably get it.
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  #11  
Old 05-12-2021, 8:52 PM
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Now only the wealthy can "probably get it" when it comes to most things, like a bunker near family that doesn't want to move to a free-state, or hordes of factory ammo right now.

It'd be nice to get everything we think we should probably get, but I personally, and many others probably too struggle with storage limitations, mixing with a normal'ish life.
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  #12  
Old 05-13-2021, 8:27 AM
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There is always inflation and it's always bad.

You have to confirm it at the grocery store?
$$ land/homes/cars/food/rent/utilities/fuel/education/taxes etc. Life in general.
Your wages go up like that?

For sheets and giggles;
https://marketrealist.com/2014/10/mu...ences-pce-cpi/
Quote:
Quote:
Two measures of inflation.
The PCE (personal consumption expenditure) price index and the CPI (consumer price index) are closely correlated and follow similar trends. However, the measures are not identical. As per research from the Cleveland Fed, prices have increased by 39% as per CPI and 31% as per PCE since 2000.
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  #13  
Old 05-13-2021, 7:17 PM
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John Williams at shadow stats has the historical CPI calculation.
MIT billion price project did the same but not sure if it's still alive
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  #14  
Old 05-13-2021, 7:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by harbormaster View Post
It seems obvious we are going to see some inflation, but how much? Will everything go up? We know ammo, lumber and some items have shot up, but are those inflation or limited supply impacting prices? Today I took a rare trip to Costco and was shocked.

16.49 Kirkland RP 425 dual sheet rolls, and in 2019 they were 16.99
2.99 36 bottle water plus CRV, same as 2019, 2015, and 2010 as best I recall,
10.49 8 cans of Kirkland Tuna, seems like it was 12.99 last I shopped for it,
7.99 shredded mini wheats,
10.99 for two 10lb bags of flour,
9.99 8 cans of Dennisonís chili,
8.99 8 cans of Bushís baked beans
5.99 two loafs of bread,
21.99 for 10 LBs of frozen chicken breast,

Now I was surprised and saddened they were out of those frozen hamburger beef logs I like. Bummer.

Not a lot of inflation....not yet

Be careful comparing man. In some cases you get whatís called product shrinkage. The item sold has less quantity, weight, volume or amount but the price stays the same. So your xx ounce whatever is now yy ounces but price is still x.99

Eventually we will have shades of Jimmy Carter era with interest rates of 14%. There is no way this tax and spend Biden and the libs are doing is sustainable. We canít keep printing money like this.
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  #15  
Old 05-13-2021, 8:04 PM
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Inflation is already here.

April's inflation rate was +4.2%. Economic reporters have been screaming that inflation hasn't been as bad since 2008.
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  #16  
Old 05-13-2021, 8:07 PM
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FYI I’m not an inflation denier I believe it’s inevitable and as noted also a constant. This is probably why I’m a copper and silver bug. I’m just noting there are some things not yet impacted like in my OP. Maybe now they are the time to buy. A few more on Amazon are in my history for the past few weeks either for myself or my employer:

ParaCord 1000’ for 39.95 was normal $52/53 a spool,
5.5 LBs Belgian chocolate for cooking $42
Life straw currently 13.30 was 12.99 on “special” and likely will be again
Zytrtec knock off 300 10mg at 9.99 a multi year supply
Aspirin 325mg / 500 tablets $4.85
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  #17  
Old 05-14-2021, 12:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by harbormaster View Post
FYI I’m not an inflation denier I believe it’s inevitable and as noted also a constant. This is probably why I’m a copper and silver bug. I’m just noting there are some things not yet impacted like in my OP. Maybe now they are the time to buy. A few more on Amazon are in my history for the past few weeks either for myself or my employer:

ParaCord 1000’ for 39.95 was normal $52/53 a spool,
5.5 LBs Belgian chocolate for cooking $42
Life straw currently 13.30 was 12.99 on “special” and likely will be again
Zytrtec knock off 300 10mg at 9.99 a multi year supply
Aspirin 325mg / 500 tablets $4.85

Pretty much everything will be impacted…why someone may ask…in some cases it’s as simple as because I can.
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  #18  
Old 05-14-2021, 6:03 AM
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Almost every restaurant has raised its prices. A bean and cheese burrito is almost $7-8 in San Diego now.
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Old 05-14-2021, 8:52 AM
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Those gurus on Television saying that its transitory inflation and that if you think about it a 60 inch TV is a lot cheaper today than it was 15 years ago I say this " I can not eat or feed my Television to my family ! Both stores that were selling this were in Bloomington Ca . The owners said the price on both Pigs and cattle are rising .On the beef he said he is going to stop ordering it because no one is buying it .carne.jpg

chicharon.jpg
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Old 05-14-2021, 8:56 AM
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I work in the garage door industry. Everything we use is metal or wood. Normal was for the suppliers to raise prices once at the beginning of the year. Most have already raised prices twice and going on the third. One vendor that we buy a lot from raised prices at the beginning of the year. They notified last week that June 1 they are raising all products 22% and freight charges an additional 5%. That is insane! All the wood we buy has doubled or tripled in price since last year. So inflation is hitting us hard. We pass it on to the customers but still. Also some of the higher end doors are now 25+ week lead time. And inventory at most vendors is really low. Doors they use to stock locally can be 3-6 weeks out now.
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Old 05-14-2021, 9:23 AM
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Originally Posted by AK5.56 View Post
Almost every restaurant has raised its prices. A bean and cheese burrito is almost $7-8 in San Diego now.
WhyTF would you live in SD?!
THAT is the gen-pop problem... big cities are CAUSING the issues of pushing a $15 minimum wage...
Big city money:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGWabpugYVU


Hell, out here in between Corona/Riverside, and SD, iHop was like $70+ for a breakfast for 3...

Wafle-house (the first one I went to in my life) in TN last year was reasonably priced...
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  #22  
Old 05-14-2021, 5:43 PM
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Funny I just took a quote for a new roll up door this afternoon, only $4545 plus tax, but IDK what it would have been last year so not sure how it inflated just know it wonít roll.


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Originally Posted by RG22 View Post
I work in the garage door industry. Everything we use is metal or wood. Normal was for the suppliers to raise prices once at the beginning of the year. Most have already raised prices twice and going on the third. One vendor that we buy a lot from raised prices at the beginning of the year. They notified last week that June 1 they are raising all products 22% and freight charges an additional 5%. That is insane! All the wood we buy has doubled or tripled in price since last year. So inflation is hitting us hard. We pass it on to the customers but still. Also some of the higher end doors are now 25+ week lead time. And inventory at most vendors is really low. Doors they use to stock locally can be 3-6 weeks out now.
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Old 05-14-2021, 6:21 PM
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IDK. We went to a well established pizza place Friday. Medium single topping pie, salad, 8 wings, 2 beers. $68 before the tip. $80 all in for LUNCH!
Last night the wife and I went to a local bar for happy hour. We each had a hamburger, I a Bud Lite, and the wife a Margarita. Total $50+
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Old 05-14-2021, 6:56 PM
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Last night the wife and I went to a local bar for happy hour. We each had a hamburger, I a Bud Lite, and the wife a Margarita. Total $50+
Apparently those two really fat dudes on tv were correct. Maybe we should call it sad hour?
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Old 05-14-2021, 7:21 PM
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Inflation is already here.



April's inflation rate was +4.2%. Economic reporters have been screaming that inflation hasn't been as bad since 2008.
That 4.2% CPI includes food and fuel. Also lumber isn't part of it. Lumber futures are up 375% which means real world prices are still likely to rise. The scarier number is the 3% core inflation which doesn't include food and fuel. Highest increase since 1981. Of course it could be economy getting back to being open, but with all the "free money" printed I'm afraid inflation is going to get bad fast, and the Fed won't increase interest rates quick enough to respond.

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Old 05-14-2021, 11:01 PM
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Originally Posted by vaka View Post
Those gurus on Television saying that its transitory inflation and that if you think about it a 60 inch TV is a lot cheaper today than it was 15 years ago I say this " I can not eat or feed my Television to my family ! Both stores that were selling this were in Bloomington Ca . The owners said the price on both Pigs and cattle are rising .On the beef he said he is going to stop ordering it because no one is buying it .Attachment 1013955

Attachment 1013956
That's the big issue and good point. "Transitory inflation". That is the approach the Fed is taking. Problem is if it jumps the fire lines, you have a forest fire. Long term, nothing worse than inflation since your net worth will decline if you are a saver along with increased costs in goods and services. It is a hidden tax, yet very real for personal economics.

Back to transitory inflation, the fed is still printing money at a crisis policy rate while holding rates at basically zero. You have both fiscal and monetary policy, congress with 5.3 trillion and fed's asset purchases 120 billion a month. Next, Biden is proposing a 3 trillion infrastructure legislation. Add all of this up and it is huge, from any historical perspective and most likely will end badly.

The current cycle is just the tip of the ice burg, yet the momentum trend has formed. Lots of companies are early aggressive with pricing because they know how it will go.
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Old 05-15-2021, 8:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Mopar Guy View Post
That's the big issue and good point. "Transitory inflation". That is the approach the Fed is taking. Problem is if it jumps the fire lines, you have a forest fire. Long term, nothing worse than inflation since your net worth will decline if you are a saver along with increased costs in goods and services. It is a hidden tax, yet very real for personal economics.

Back to transitory inflation, the fed is still printing money at a crisis policy rate while holding rates at basically zero. You have both fiscal and monetary policy, congress with 5.3 trillion and fed's asset purchases 120 billion a month. Next, Biden is proposing a 3 trillion infrastructure legislation. Add all of this up and it is huge, from any historical perspective and most likely will end badly.

The current cycle is just the tip of the ice burg, yet the momentum trend has formed. Lots of companies are early aggressive with pricing because they know how it will go.
The prices on lumber and food feel like price gouging disguised as broken supply chain .
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Old 05-15-2021, 12:57 PM
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The prices on lumber and food feel like price gouging disguised as broken supply chain .
It's both. Supply chain is broken, hence gouging. It's an example of a spot fire. Take that scenario over multiple industries and a forest fire could start. Still in the initial inflation stage, yet it could really get going. Problem is the Fed is the fire department.
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Old 05-15-2021, 1:12 PM
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Ok so what are you hoarding now?
Gas?
Toilet paper?
Gold?
Silver?

I'm sure it's not paper money.
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Old 05-15-2021, 5:17 PM
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It's both. Supply chain is broken, hence gouging. It's an example of a spot fire. Take that scenario over multiple industries and a forest fire could start. Still in the initial inflation stage, yet it could really get going. Problem is the Fed is the fire department.
From what very little I know about economics the Fed is in a really bad spot , Fail to raise rates and risk living with inflation and hyper inflation for years to come , raise rates and the house of cards that is the current housing market and stock market come crashing down creating a depression or recession and opening the door for the United States to lose its title of holding the worlds reserve currency . Either way it looks like there isn't an outcome that ends well from us although I dont know enough to say whether I am right or wrong . Whats your opinion ?
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Old 05-15-2021, 6:03 PM
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Fed has to raise rates to counter inflation. Government has to stop printing money. If both happen quickly we could be ok. Fed can't raise rate too much; otherwise we can't possibly service the mountain of debt. It's going to be a delicate balancing act.

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Old 05-15-2021, 10:39 PM
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Fed has to raise rates to counter inflation. Government has to stop printing money. If both happen quickly we could be ok. Fed can't raise rate too much; otherwise we can't possibly service the mountain of debt. It's going to be a delicate balancing act.

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Too bad that none of this is going to happen. This new administration answers to the screaming Left and they are still in the opening years of socialism with give-aways funded by printing money.
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Old 05-16-2021, 7:03 AM
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Janet Yellen said recently not to worry about inflation, several Fed governors disagreed with her. Besides food and gas, there is real inflation happening, my HOA just increased our monthly dues by 20%! Blaming it on higher "water" charges and the landscaping contractor got a new contract.
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Old 05-16-2021, 7:18 AM
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Originally Posted by capt14k View Post
Fed has to raise rates to counter inflation. Government has to stop printing money. If both happen quickly we could be ok. Fed can't raise rate too much; otherwise we can't possibly service the mountain of debt. It's going to be a delicate balancing act.

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Official debt is like $28trn. Raising rates even 1% will mean 60% of the budget is interest only. That would take rates to .. 1.25%

Remember Volker took rates to 18%.
The fed can't even take rates to 2% now before the entire federal budget is just interest payments.
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Old 05-16-2021, 7:27 AM
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Official debt is like $28trn. Raising rates even 1% will mean 60% of the budget is interest only. That would take rates to .. 1.25%

Remember Volker took rates to 18%.
The fed can't even take rates to 2% now before the entire federal budget is just interest payments.
Unfortunately you are correct, but 2% would be better than .25% for inflation. Which means there has to be budget cuts. Let's start with foreign aid. Especially to countries that illegally receive foreign aid under Federal Law. Any nation that isn't a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and refuses international inspectors gets $0 in aid as per our laws.

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  #36  
Old 05-16-2021, 7:50 AM
Ravenk Ravenk is offline
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There is always inflation and it's always bad. Hold your horses.
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  #37  
Old 05-16-2021, 10:07 AM
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harbormaster harbormaster is offline
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Math seems a little off. 1% on 28 tril is 280 billion which isnít 60% of our budget or income but less than 10%?

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Originally Posted by TFA777 View Post
Official debt is like $28trn. Raising rates even 1% will mean 60% of the budget is interest only. That would take rates to .. 1.25%

Remember Volker took rates to 18%.
The fed can't even take rates to 2% now before the entire federal budget is just interest payments.
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  #38  
Old 05-16-2021, 4:02 PM
TFA777 TFA777 is offline
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Originally Posted by harbormaster View Post
Math seems a little off. 1% on 28 tril is 280 billion which isnít 60% of our budget or income but less than 10%?
Wasn't clear.
Discretionary budget was $1.5trn. $523bn interest in 2020.
Expecting to add (if bidens bills pass) another $2-4trn to the deficit this year.
1% on $32trn is $320bn + $523bn =$850bn or so.
Roughly 56% of $1.5trn discretionary budget.
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  #39  
Old 05-16-2021, 4:39 PM
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Mopar Guy Mopar Guy is offline
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Originally Posted by vaka View Post
From what very little I know about economics the Fed is in a really bad spot , Fail to raise rates and risk living with inflation and hyper inflation for years to come , raise rates and the house of cards that is the current housing market and stock market come crashing down creating a depression or recession and opening the door for the United States to lose its title of holding the worlds reserve currency . Either way it looks like there isn't an outcome that ends well from us although I dont know enough to say whether I am right or wrong . Whats your opinion ?
I think Jerome Powell is a smart guy. He is very dovish with inflation. Most have been very hawkish. There is a lot of air in the housing and stock market from the Fed and congress. I don't think they really care about the short term direction of the economy or inflated valuations of the stock market. It's like steering a huge ship and they will over correct then raise interest rates. The problem with inflation is that the Fed looks at macro data and includes much more than consumer goods. Unemployment rate is also very important to Powell. He wants to get that back to pre-pandemic numbers. The potential for a train wreck is there. Just have to see how it plays out.
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  #40  
Old 05-16-2021, 6:46 PM
pacrat pacrat is offline
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Inflation: Not Yet


What a difference a week makes.
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