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  #41  
Old 08-15-2019, 9:25 PM
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Default Is a Recession Coming?

All this talk about inverted yield curves and such has the markets spooked about a recession.

Came across this article on fortune.com and found the mortgage piece interesting:

When the Next Recession Hits, 4 Good Things Could Happen


from the article:

"Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough. And in many cases, they continued to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over.

Mortgage rates don’t have nearly as far to fall as they did in the past since the starting point is so much lower today. But even a little weakness in economic activity can send rates plunging."


It may or may not be the perfect time for you to refinance or buy a house right now, but it wouldn't hurt to check.

PM me and I'll let you know if it is a good time now or what you need to do to get ready so when the time is right you can pull the trigger

No cost, no obligation, no annoying follow up, and no sales pitch.

I'll just crunch some numbers for you so you know where you stand
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  #42  
Old 09-06-2019, 4:01 PM
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Just finished helping another calguner take advantage of low rates with a refi.

One of the things I pride myself on is the streamlined process that my team and I have in place.

This one was 18 days from submitting the application to underwriting until closing.

Quick but not rushed, and you'll know exactly what is going on the whole time

PM me for a no cost, no obligation Home Loan Report to see if a refi pencils out for you.

Worst that will happen is I'll let you know you are in good shape and don't need to change a thing

Cheers
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  #43  
Old 09-06-2019, 6:56 PM
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And quick it was!!!

I can not recommend Micah enough. So many positive adjectives to say it would take me a while to finish. Quick, painless, seamless, hassle less, even effortless I would say.

Plain and simple, you have nothing to loose and a lot to win, at least for me that was the case. Extremely satisfied with my Refi

Top notch professional here gentlemen. Highly recommended.

I will be sitting outside on my patio tonight enjoying my favorite craft beer thinking how great of a deal I just got.
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  #44  
Old 09-06-2019, 8:39 PM
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  #45  
Old 09-09-2019, 8:10 PM
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interesting... i am looking to purchase in the near future. though i am in northern california.
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  #46  
Old 09-09-2019, 8:27 PM
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^ I can absolutely help you with the financing aspect as that is all done via email/text/phone and while I can't physically help you get into houses in Northern CA I can definitely connect you with a good agent

Best advice I can give is to get all your ducks in a row on the financing first, so when it comes time to get out and look at houses you know exactly where you stand on where you want the numbers to be for purchase price, down payment and monthly payment

I help people get the numbers figured out first, and then it is just a matter of finding the right house that matches the numbers.

PM when you're ready to start crunching some numbers, no cost, no obligation and no sales pitch
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  #47  
Old 09-19-2019, 9:35 PM
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Curious about your take on the recent fed cut.
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  #48  
Old 09-20-2019, 12:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WeStayClean View Post
Curious about your take on the recent fed cut.
Feds don't control mortgage rates. When they "cut" it is to the Federal Funds rate.

When they cut the Federal Funds rate do mortgage rates sometimes go down? Yes, but sometimes they go up as well depending on the language from the meetings and how markets interpret their statements and minutes from the meetings.

Mortgages ended essentially flat after the cut this week, no increase, no decrease as the .25 cut has been "baked in" to the market and widely expected for some time now. Jerome Powell chose his words carefully to give the markets just enough so that they wouldn't react much and that is what happened.

All eyes now are on the China trade deal which, in my opinion, is the biggest driver of mortgage rates at the moment.

Trade deals came back on the table at the beginning of the month and rates spiked up dramatically.

Today, China cancels a visit to some farms (which was never approved in the first place and only "tentative") markets freak out and mortgage rates improve a bit.

The key word these days is "volatility" with lots of knee jerk reactions causing mortgage rates to go up or down.

What I am helping people do now is, figuring out the target rate for a refi to pencil out, then getting all their ducks in a row for loan approval. That way, when the next dip happens we're ready to take advantage of it while it lasts and get the refi done quickly and easily

For people buying a home, I don't recommend gambling to see if rates will come down further. Right now rates are great and still under 4% There's too much risk in my opinion to play the market when you are in escrow on a home to see if rates will come down during the home buying process. Lock in a great rate right now and then keep your eyes on the prize which is buying your new home. After closing then we can start monitoring the market for a refi opportunity down the road.

Last edited by huntingsocal; 09-20-2019 at 1:02 PM..
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  #49  
Old 09-22-2019, 5:51 AM
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Im certain there are many factors to consider, but generally speaking at what point spread (difference) between a current 30 year mortage and available rates today does one consider a refi?
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  #50  
Old 09-22-2019, 9:03 AM
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Good question mwr and you are correct, there are many factors

Cost is a factor. The third party costs like title, escrow, appraisal, recording, notary aren’t much different between a $100,000 refi and a $600,000 refi which means loan amount is also a factor

Someone lowering their rate by .25% with a $100,000 loan isn’t going to save nearly as much as someone lowering their rate by .25% on a $600,000 loan so it will take the person with the $100,000 loan much longer to realize the savings compared to the person with the $600,000 loan since they are both paying about the same in actual up front costs

That brings in the factor of how long you plan on staying in the home for

If someone is going to sell their home in a year, it probably doesn’t make sense to refinance, pay points to buy down their rate only to end up selling in a year

Whereas, someone who is in their “forever home” and not going anywhere might be better off buying their rate down so they can “set it and forget it” and just get the lowest rate possible now, knowing they are going to be there for years to come

Now, even if someone is going to sell in the next 12 months a refi might still pencil out. You’ve probably heard ads for “no cost” refis which is actually misleading in my opinion because what they are actually talking about is a refi with no “up front” costs. The lender does credit the borrower to pay for the closing costs but they do with a higher interest rate.

The lower the rate, the more up front costs (discount points) the higher the rate the lower the up front costs (lender credit toward closing costs)

But if someone is only going to be in their house for a year, and we can still lower their rate with a “no up front cost” refi that doesn’t cost anything with a higher rate (still lower than current rate) then it can make sense in a situation like that

So in a situation like that, the rate might only drop .125% but if we’ve got the lender paying all the costs and aren’t adding anything to the loan balance or term then they are saving money from day one and it doesn’t matter that they’re selling the house in a year

I hear people say all the time “Oh my cousins financial guy said never refi unless you can lower your rate by at least .25%” or something along those lines

Truth is there is no magic formula so best thing to do is PM me and I can take s look at your overall situation with long term and short term factors weighed in and help you figure out if a refi makes sense

If it doesn’t make sense now, then we can set a target for where rates need to be for it to make sense and then wait for a Trump tweet to rattle the markets and make rates dip
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  #51  
Old 11-19-2019, 11:28 AM
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pm sent
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  #52  
Old 12-27-2019, 7:21 AM
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Hello Huntingsocal,

Just wondering, is there still a a first time buyers program in California and would you recommend using it? Around 2 years ago my old roommates bought a house in Moreno Valley and said they used the first time buyers program and then also used a California grant which allowed them to only put 4% down and roll the rest in to their mortgage. They both made good money at the time of buy but just never really did much saving. So i know it wasn't a low income situation. I am looking to buy hopefully between the end of 2020 and mid 2021. I'm waiting to see if the housing market drops more and trying to save as much as I can by then.
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  #53  
Old 12-27-2019, 9:10 AM
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Howdy Packers,

Yes there are still "first time buyer" programs available with the general definition of first time buyer being someone who has not owned property in the last three years.

Most, not all, the programs have income restrictions. Meaning, you can't make over a certain amount of money per year in order to qualify for the program.

For example, Fannie Mae has their "HomeReady" program and Freddie Mac has the "HomePossible" program

Both of these have down payments as low as 3% but both of them have income restrictions.

You mentioned grants.

Yes, grants are available, some are statewide and some may vary county by county, sometimes city by city depending on what is available.

Grants are usually for "low to moderate income" individuals as well.

Grants sometimes come with strings attached. It isn't always just "free money" that you get to put toward the purchase of the house. Sometimes they attach as a second lien on the house and if you stay in the house for at least three years then the lien is "forgiven." So always gotta read the fine print when looking at grants.

The other thing about grants is that they are sometimes paired with a specific first mortgage that has a crappy interest rate so it can work out to really cost the buyer a lot more over the long run.

For example, there is a grant right now from Golden State Financing Authority for 4% of the loan amount and can go toward your down payment or closing costs. Sounds great right? The catch is that your first mortgage will be an FHA loan at 5% when current market rates on FHA loans right now in the low to mid 3's right now. So you get the "free" money for down payment, but then pay at least 1.5% higher on your mortgage.

The truth is, conventional loans only require 3% down payment, FHA loans only require 3.5% down payments and VA loans require zero down payment and there are no first time buyer requirements or income restrictions for any of this.

The "free money" for first time buyers usually comes at the expense of buyer over the long term by paying higher interest rates.

This isn't always the case but it is important to align yourself with a good broker, like me, who can work with you on a plan now so that you are ready when the time comes to pull the trigger on buying a house.

PM me if you'd like to have a no cost, no pressure strategy session so you can be well on your way with a plan to buy a home when you're ready.
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  #54  
Old 12-27-2019, 11:29 AM
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Thank you for the response. I have also sent you a DM back.
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  #55  
Old 05-27-2020, 3:50 PM
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Default Post COVID Update on Mortgages and Real Estate

Well, I hope you all managed to stay safe and sane during whatever form of lock down you had to endure

Coming through "the other side" of this and the short update is, rates are still low and values haven't taken much of a hit if at all.

There were some massive moves in rates up and down back in March but once the Fed stepped in and started buying Mortgage Backed Securities things calmed down.

They've been slowly tapering off their purchases and so far rates are remaining stable.

The CARES Act didn't help matters by opening the floodgates on forbearance requests.

As a result, many banks have tightened up guidelines, stop offering certain programs, quit doing "cash out" refinances, and raised rates to cover expected losses from people not paying their mortgage.

Good news is not all lenders have done this and just recently I'm starting to see a lot of those restrictions being lifted by the banks that did clamp down.

Speaking of forbearance. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported this week that 8.36% of all mortgages are now in forbearance. So it isn't a surprise why lenders have been spooked. Kinda hard to gauge the value of mortgages (rates) when so many people aren't paying the piper right now.

There's been some talk that the window to request forbearance will be closing soon but nothing concrete.

For those that went into forbearance some good news. Until recently someone coming out of forbearance would be in the penalty box for 12 months and would not be able to get a mortgage to buy or refi for a year.

That has changed and now there is only a 3 month waiting period after payments resume before someone can get a mortgage to buy a house or to refi.

If you went into forbearance but kept making your payments, then no waiting period.

I've taken several calls already from people asking about taking advantage of low rates but who are in forbearance and had to tell them they were a long way out before being able to do anything.

This shorter waiting period should be good for everyone. Good for the people who went into forbearance because they can take advantage of lower rates with a refi and good for the loan servicers who had to cover the missed payments who can be made whole when the loan is paid off.

What about purchases and sales?

Incredibly purchase applications reported this week up 9% year over year. So MORE purchase applications now than this same time last year.

Likely due to "pent up demand" with a lot of buyers coming out of the woodwork after lock down.

For a time, this will be good for sellers. With lots of buyers coming onto market and inventory still low, sellers will probably see multiple offers

Just last week I had a client put an offer in on a $1mil+ home in Arcadia and there were 14 other offers.

There are still of course a lot of unknowns and anyone who tells you they know what rates are going to do or what real estate prices are going to do is full of it.

Is this a head fake? Are we in for another leg down in the stock market? How bad of a hit is the economy really going to take?

I have no idea

For now here's what I know based on my experience day in, day out in the mortgage and real estate world

Rates are great right now and home values are still stable

For refi's there's still opportunity out there to lower payments, lower terms, consolidate debt, take out money for home improvements and get rid of PMI if you bought with less than 20% down

Interest rates are about a full 1% lower right now than they were this time last year so for many, the savings can be pretty substantial.

If you would like a no cost, no obligation Mortgage Check Up just PM me a few pieces of info:

1.) Estimated Home Value
2.) Current Loan Amount
3.) Current Interest Rate
4.) Estimated FICO score
5.) How may years into your current loan

I'll crunch some numbers for you and let you know if now would be a good time to refi or, at the least, I'll let you know where to set the target and will keep an eye on the market for you and let you know when the time comes to make a move.


For buyers, with rates this low if you're planning on buying something and staying put for the next 7-10 years you'll probably do well. PM me and I'll work with you to put together a game plan that will get you in your comfort zone for purchase price, down payment and monthly payment

For selllers, there are going to be a lot of buyers coming soon. What you do now to get ready could make the difference that puts more $$$$ in your pocket at closing.

PM me for a free copy of my seller's guidebook as well as a no cost, no obligation electronic valuation of your home

Last edited by huntingsocal; 05-28-2020 at 10:17 AM..
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  #56  
Old 06-29-2020, 1:45 PM
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I was in the RE biz back in 1990-92, way too many incompetent liars for my liking, so I opened a pawnshop and dealt with a better class of people. Micah has handled our refi 2 times, I can't speak highly enough about his professionalism, efficiency and staying on top of the process.

If you're considering a refi or new purchase, Micah will take great of you and get the job done quickly.
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  #57  
Old 07-13-2020, 3:48 PM
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Tagged for later.
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  #58  
Old 08-23-2020, 11:17 AM
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Values continue their upward march due in large part to the pent up demand of buyers who have been cooped up under lock down.

Multiple offers abound for sellers who price their home right

Buyers have the advantage of low rates thanks to the Fed continuing to purchase BILLIONS worth of Mortgage Backed Securities per DAY.

If you're going to stay put for a while and you haven't refinanced yet in 2020, chances are you could benefit from a refi.

Contrary to what you might have heard, there is no need to start the clock over again when you refi. We can customize the term of your new loan so you don't start over. Anywhere from 8 to 30 years.

Been in your home for 3 years already? Take advantage of low rates with a new 27 year loan.

Already paid two years in on a 15 year loan? We can still get a lower rate with a new 13 year loan.

Always a pleasure to help fellow calguners.

As a long time calguns member myself, I've helped dozens of members over the years and you guys and gals are genuinely my favorite group of people to work with

PM me for a no cost, no obligation, analysis if you're thinking about refinancing, buying or selling your home or even a combination of all three!
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  #59  
Old 08-30-2020, 2:45 PM
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  #60  
Old 11-10-2020, 11:59 PM
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Just like the election, the direction of rates is undecided and there have been ups and downs for a week now.

Nobody knows which way things will go but right now, rates are low

If your current rate is over 3% I'd recommend a mortgage check up.

I can crunch numbers for you, no cost, no obligation and no credit check

I've helped dozens of calguners over the years buy, sell, and refinance homes and you can check my feedback here and feel comfortable knowing you're not going to get a cheesy sales pitch from me.

Let's see if there is some money to be saved by taking advantage of rates while they are low so you can put some money aside for ammo

If you message me the following, I can crunch some quick numbers for you to see if a refi might pencil out

1.) Estimated property value and property type
2.) Current loan balance
3.) Current rate
4.) Estimated FICO score
5.) Number of years into current loan

Take a break from the election shenanigans and hopefully I can give you some good news about saving some money

I'm knocking out refi's right now in three weeks or less if you've got your ducks in a row
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  #61  
Old 01-27-2021, 8:03 PM
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Low rates won’t last forever

The dems plans are more likely to lead to higher rates vs lower rates

For the past six years I’ve been personally helping calguners with their mortgage and real estate needs and I’m still here, ready to help and provide no cost, no obligation, no pressure analysis

If you’ve been thinking about refinancing, don’t wait. The rate markets did NOT respond favorably after the Georgia election because they expect rates to go up as a result of Democrat control

Good news is, you didn’t miss the boat. Rates are still exceptionally low and my team and I are helping people get refis done in 2-3 weeks right now

As always, PM me for a no pressure number crunch. Check the first post of this thread for more details

Now serving California and Idaho
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  #62  
Old 03-09-2021, 6:31 PM
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Just want to put a word in for huntingsocal. He was instrumental in a deal in ID. I can't recommend him enough. And if you want boots on the ground and honest advice and info...he's your guy.
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  #63  
Old 04-22-2021, 11:53 AM
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I also want to put in a good word for the work Micah does, he is the real deal. Never in all my years have I come across someone in his industry so helpful and genuine. He literally looks out for your best interests over his own, and I can't speak highly enough of his professionalism and credibility. look no further if you need a Refi or new mortgage, etc.
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  #64  
Old 04-22-2021, 12:20 PM
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  #65  
Old 06-30-2021, 4:56 PM
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Inflation is heating up but rates are holding the line


If you have a mortgage and you haven't refi'd in the past 18 months you might be leaving money on the table. It might be possible to lower your rate, or shorten your term or both.

PM me for a no cost, no obligation Mortgage Check Up or visit my website MicahPetersonMortgage.com

Heck even if you have refi'd in the last 6-18 months you might be able to save some money. Especially if you have other high interest debt you haven't tackled or maybe a HELOC you've used for home improvements. With the amount of equity you've gained recently it might be worth taking a look at a cash out refi consolidate debt, or pull money for home improvements. (pull the money now while rates are low but maybe wait a bit to start until lumber comes down )

If you're in the market to buy a house, you know how competitive it is out there. You need a pro on your side like me who knows how to get loans closed quickly and with the least amount of hassle. Sellers and listing agents don't want offers from buyers with a rookie loan hack. I'll get you pre approved and I'll personally call every listing agent on every property you make an offer on to assure them that YOU are a good buyer and that I know how to get things done.

Planning an escape? I am licensed in California and Idaho and I've helped several calguners make their escape. My team and I will handle everything from the sale to the purchase and financing of your free state getaway.

PM me for more info or visit: https://micahpetersonmortgage.com/

At some point, these low rates will be gone
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  #66  
Old 08-29-2021, 7:22 PM
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Iíve worked with Micah twice and highly recommend him, totally professional and extremely honest.
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  #67  
Old 10-18-2021, 5:26 PM
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Pm sent
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  #68  
Old 04-29-2022, 8:03 PM
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RATES ARE UP, NOW WHAT?

It sure was nice seeing a '2' in front of those fixed rates for a short time but now they're gone and many people feel like they missed the boat.

You might be hearing the phrase thrown around that rates are still "historically low" but what does that even mean?

Well, the last time inflation got out of control back in the 70's and 80's rates were over 18%

Talk to some of the old timers around here and they'll tell you people were ecstatic when rates came down to 9%

With rates in the 5's now what?

If you're thinking about buying a home and you can afford it, there's a good chance that locking in your housing payment, even at 5% is a better deal than renting.

PM me for a no cost, no obligation number crunch on what your payment, down payment and closing costs would be to buy a home

If you already own a home, if you've got a big HELOC, the rate on that WILL be going up as the Fed continues their rate hikes. Same with high interest revolving debt, the rates will be going up. For many people there is still an opportunity to consolidate debt, lower payments and lock them in. Maybe you love your home but want to add on, build a shop or an ADU. You can still put your equity to work and likely have a lower payment that if you sold and traded up.

PM me for a no cost number crunch on a cash out refi for home improvements or debt consolidation

If you're thinking about selling you already know you have a bunch of equity, but how much is your home really worth?

PM me for a no cost interactive Home Value Report so you can start tracking your home's value just like you would your other investments

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  #69  
Old 05-29-2022, 3:51 PM
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The housing market just slid into a full-blown correction, says top economist Mark Zandi
https://fortune.com/2022/05/27/housi...rices-outlook/

Get ready for the news cycle of a "housing correction" in the weeks and months ahead.

After creating the current run up in prices with easy money and bizarrely low interest rates, the Fed is now trying to reverse engineer the economy into a recession to fight the inflation they caused in the first place.

Most of what caused the run up in house prices is now gone.
  • Low rates, gone
  • Easy work from home policies from most employers, on the way out
  • Everyone locked down, feeling stir crazy and panic buying, subsiding for now

So what does that mean to you?

PM me for a no obligation number crunch and strategy session.

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Last edited by huntingsocal; 09-12-2022 at 1:05 PM..
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  #70  
Old 06-11-2022, 11:01 AM
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G38xOC G38xOC is offline
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Micah is great calgunner ! He has help me so much on my property deal going side ways ! Hope things are well with you and your fam !!
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  #71  
Old 09-12-2022, 1:04 PM
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What Does the Real Estate Market "Shift" Mean to You?

Leave it to the media and real estate people to come up with every possible way to spin the fact that the market is changing.

A 'shift' as the market is 'cooling off' but of course definitely NOT crashing because 'this time is different.'

That pretty much sums up the general message right now. Continue looking through rose colored glasses as long as possible until the very bitter end.

The reality is pretty simple, mortgage rates are up and prices are coming down.

So what does that mean to you?

Buyers
If you haven't had your pre approval updated in the last couple months, I'd recommend doing that ASAP. Higher rates will limit your purchase power and it is important to know where you stand in the current market before you start putting offers on homes.

You can expect less competition and prices beginning to stabilize (fewer bidding wars and homes selling over asking price)

Sellers
Don't get greedy. You're probably still sitting on more equity than you've ever had before. If you're home is priced right, you're likely still going to get multiple offers and will be able to take your pick from the best offer that is most likely to close quickly. If you over shoot the market, your home is going to sit and will likely sell for less that what it would had you priced it right from the beginning.

Homeowners who want to stay put but still access equity
Yes, rates are higher than they were 2020-2021 but that was a complete and total anomaly engineered by the Fed. So is all the equity you have right now. Rates are now back to normal and, for the time being, you're sitting on record levels of equity that may or may not last much longer. If you've been thinking about adding on, building an ADU, or pulling cash for future property purchases, the lending guidelines still make it easy for us to get quick approvals with limited documentation and hassle free closings.

If you find yourself in any of these scenarios, PM me for a no obligation number crunch and strategy session.
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Old 09-19-2022, 7:10 AM
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Hello everyone,

I want to let the Calguns community know, that Micah is a phenomenal RE broker, he's handled 2 transactions for us and 1 for a person I referred. In a world of absolute predatory cutthroat scumbags, he is a true professional. I was a Realtor in the early 90's, I've known many hundreds of RE agents & brokers and Micah is one of the handful in the industry who I trust without question. He's proven himself to be extremely knowledgeable, goes above & beyond but most importantly you can trust everything he recommends and says. Don't hesitate dealing with him, he takes the stress out of dealing with the insanity of RE in Calif.
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  #73  
Old 09-22-2022, 12:38 PM
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You mean loan broker OCGun?

Funny I was about to PM you when i saw 3% rate??!!..maybe ARM....I was on page 1 still..2020..oops
Interesting days indeed!
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Old 09-22-2022, 8:41 PM
XDJYo XDJYo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrokerB View Post
You mean loan broker OCGun?

Funny I was about to PM you when i saw 3% rate??!!..maybe ARM....I was on page 1 still..2020..oops
Interesting days indeed!

A change from a 3% rate to 6% with a payment of about $2,100 goes from $500k down to roughly $350k. In other words, to get to the same $2,100/ mos payment today vs 8 or 9 months ago, you can borrow only $350k vs $500k. 30 year fixed on both. Gigantic difference. 30+ year veteran of the mortgage biz and currently unemployed. A lot of reminders of 2008 right now. Hoping it wonít be as bad. A lot of similarities and some not. Some things are dramatically worse.


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Old 09-24-2022, 9:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrokerB View Post
You mean loan broker OCGun?
See post #1 in this thread for a complete list of my services
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Old 09-25-2022, 6:16 AM
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Yes, you say your a Real Estate Broker- Financial Expert, then your website says Loan Broker. It's a bit confusing and sounds like you buy and sell real estate as well as arrange loans? That's why I asked.
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