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  #41  
Old 04-15-2019, 3:16 PM
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Originally Posted by jeremiah12 View Post
Let's not be naive. With the ability to legally repair damaged mags with new parts, you could completely repair an old mag with parts to have a mag that had not existed pre-2000.
TRUE. A lot of people overlook that. I'm sure there are even a few people who repaired a number of old mags with the "kits" and kept the old ones or didn't even have an old one. They may have even been one or two that bought blocked mags and the rivets fell out somehow. But I really doubt it. Most people care deeply about the letter of the law here.

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  #42  
Old 04-15-2019, 3:49 PM
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Originally Posted by aBrowningfan View Post
Only question is how much over 6 million. Based on how many of the volume sellers (e.g. Brownells, etc.) were out of stock over the weekend of 3/30 & 31, I suspect the actual number is closer to 12 million than 6 million.
Hard to say, honestly, given that there's so much political gain to be had from inflating the numbers. We know california has way more gun owners that originally thought, but did 6 million really buy?
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  #43  
Old 04-15-2019, 3:56 PM
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6 million people buying... I doubt it. 300K starving people buying order after order of deeeelicious hamburgers for seven days? I'd say 20 each is pretty low IMHO. I bet lots of people who were "good" on stuff bought more than 20.
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  #44  
Old 04-15-2019, 8:02 PM
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Some of the small Bay Area stores were jammed packed, with a line out the door.......
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  #45  
Old 04-16-2019, 10:53 AM
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According to one news article on it I saw, CA has over 350,000 registered "assault" weapons per NFA. Considering that's JUST the NFA stuff, and generally speaking everyone has at least 2-3 magazines per gun (5-6 on average I'd guess) and I'd say we're looking at a bare minimum of ~1,500,000 magazines purchased in a matter of days. I'd be willing to bet most NFA weapon owners have multiple guns that take detachable magazines, so at a conservative estimate let's double that to 3,000,000 if they purchased the same number of backup mags for 2 of their guns.

However, we know for a fact that Californians have actually purchased over 1,000,000 guns per year over the last several years. We also know that at a low-end estimate, 14% of Californians own guns (compared to 22% nationally, and relying on registered firearms only). California has a population of 40,000,000 people. We know that California's purchasing power as one of the world's largest economies can change entire industries, and firearms is no exception. 14% of 40,000,000 is ~ 5,600,000 people. Let's say that due to a lack of media coverage trumpeting this on every outlet, only those gun owners who pay attention to forums like Calguns, BARF, Facebook friends, etc word of mouth learned about the opportunity to buy magazines - Maybe 1/5 of gun owners? Less? 1/5 of 5,600,000 is 1,120,000...so let's say just those people bought 6 magazines, 3 for their handgun of choice and 3 for their rifle of choice.

We're already up to a low estimate of 10,000,000 magazines purchased. Which, given a 20 year prohibition on them, seems to me like a very low number considering I've seen many people talking about spending an average of $300 or so (PMAGs are $12-$15 typically. Glock mags run $20-$30, maybe $40 for the 33-round mags. Even if you assume everything was $40, 300/40 = 7.5 mags on average). Many spent $1000+, and the highest I've heard so far was $10,000. Several on the forums announced spending $3,000-$5,000, others wouldn't say but summed it up in terms of round counts or other ways that left the specific quantities of magazines vague.

Imagine how many magazines a typical gun store stocks. It's maybe in the hundreds but certainly not thousands or tens of thousands for a particular gun. Distribution centers are needed, warehouses, etc. Magpul alone, around 10 years ago, had already laid claim to shipping "multiple millions" of PMAGs around the country. I find it entirely feasible that the number of standard capacity / high capacity (12-30 / 50+) magazines now legally in CA exceeds several tens of millions and quite possibly number in the hundreds of millions.
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