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National 2nd Amend. Political & Legal Discussion Discuss national gun rights and 2A related political topics here. All advice given is NOT legal counsel. |
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#2081
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Exactly right! They will overrule Heller and it's progeny the first chance they get.
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I wish today's liberals could understand: You cannot be generous by giving away other peoples' money and you cannot demonstrate your virtue by your willingness to give up other peoples' rights. ![]() The more time I spend on this forum, the more sense kcbrown makes ![]() |
#2082
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And they'll follow it up with "See Dobbs."
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![]() It's 2025. Mickey Mouse is in the public domain and Goofy has left the White House. |
#2083
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I think the leak shows us that we are in for a good decision. My main argument is That the abortion case and the ccw case are the biggest cases of the term. Thomas has not written an opinion for November. Him differing this opinion to Alito further alludes that Thomas will be writing the opinion in the ccw case. We all know where Thomas stands in re to the second amendment. If Thomas wasn’t writing the ccw case he would have kept overturning roe.
If scotus is willing to go balls out in Roe like this, Thomas will write a strong opinion protecting ccw. |
#2084
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Concealed carry is already protected as a State (polity) regulated mode. So what makes you think that Thomas will change his mind on BOTH? Furthermore, what makes you think that Kavanaugh, Gorsuch and Barrett will change their mind that Heller is binding AND what makes you think that Alito and Robert's will change their minds like Thomas? =8-|
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Justice Thomas: " I find it extremely improbable that the Framers understood the Second Amendment to protect little more than carrying a gun from the bedroom to the kitchen. " |
#2085
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If overturning roe is possible like this than anything is possible when it’s Thomas writing the majority opinion. We have seen him call out the court for acting like the second is a disfavored right in the past, it’s something he cares about. This isn’t another train pension case. Plus if it was going to be a soft opinion Robert’s would be writing the opinion and would be in the majority. Last edited by shooting4life; 05-10-2022 at 9:29 PM.. |
#2086
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__________________
I wish today's liberals could understand: You cannot be generous by giving away other peoples' money and you cannot demonstrate your virtue by your willingness to give up other peoples' rights. ![]() The more time I spend on this forum, the more sense kcbrown makes ![]() |
#2087
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Starting from your assertion that OC is the right and CCW is discretionary, the issue will turn to Equal Protection. There are many possible avenues for this, but the most obvious one comes from the same community that brought us Caetano. For persons who are homeless, travelers, and other marginalized groups, OC places a high burden on their ability to keep and bear arms (the two are conflated in the case of an un-housed individual). Similarly, a person living in a dangerous neighborhood - someone who has a heightened need for self defense - is placed at demonstrably higher risk if they exercise their right to bear through OC. It just seems inevitable to me that if this case doesn't resolve CCW once and for all as a right, it is a fairly small (and unavoidable) step to get there. The real question will be how many decent low income people get robbed or killed while OC before the laws get changed. It's a rhetorical question because they are smarter than that and they will CCW anyway, get arrested and have their lives turned upside down in the system. Nothing new to see here.
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![]() It's 2025. Mickey Mouse is in the public domain and Goofy has left the White House. |
#2088
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#2089
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The idea is that SCOTUS tries to divide the workload evenly.
IIRC, for the month of November, when this was heard, most of the other justices, including Roberts, have already done their share, which leaves only two options: Thomas and Barrett. For a pivotal decision, seniority should dictate which of the two will write the opinion. |
#2090
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I believe that any decision written by Thomas will codify the 2A and direct the lower courts to the process they must follow and their limitations.
I expect to be able to carry a loaded firearm the day of the decision outside my home. 7 weeks to go. Who’s right is it to determine the MODE of carry? I don’t think the government. I hope Thomas will allow the citizen to Bear Arms, in a mode that they choose. I think the limit place on the government will be only to limit where one can carry, ie. “Sensitive Places”. |
#2091
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This requires years of courts striking down the more draconian restrictions, but the courts generally haven’t been friendly to gun rights. |
#2092
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So . . .
Let's assume that the SCOTUS calendar showing no opinion issuances thru June is accurate . . . Let's assume that SCOTUS WILL act on NYSRPA v Bruen during that time period . . . What are the chances that NYSRPA v Bruen will be on an order list as: As a remand to the lower court as mooted OR improvidently granted? Just wondering what you guys think... =8-|
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Justice Thomas: " I find it extremely improbable that the Framers understood the Second Amendment to protect little more than carrying a gun from the bedroom to the kitchen. " |
#2094
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Justice Thomas: " I find it extremely improbable that the Framers understood the Second Amendment to protect little more than carrying a gun from the bedroom to the kitchen. " |
#2096
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The calendar on the SOCTUS website is updated regularly. Opinion issuance dates will appear on the calendar a few days or the day before the issuance comes out. I have seen as such for the last two issuance dates. IIRC all opinions for the session should be out by July 1.
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#2097
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Justice Thomas: " I find it extremely improbable that the Framers understood the Second Amendment to protect little more than carrying a gun from the bedroom to the kitchen. " |
#2098
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__________________
I wish today's liberals could understand: You cannot be generous by giving away other peoples' money and you cannot demonstrate your virtue by your willingness to give up other peoples' rights. ![]() The more time I spend on this forum, the more sense kcbrown makes ![]() |
#2099
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Honest question: Best case, SCOTUS rules that shall issue must replace may issue effective immediately. What is to stop California from IMMEDIATELY ruling around this? I have a hard time believing that the "Brentwoods" and "Palo Altos" of the influential California community would - for ONE second - allow something like this to occur in their neighborhood. The thought that anyone can now conceal carry a firearm at The Grove while they are with their family shopping.
I remain hopeful for a positive SCOTUS ruling, but realistically - does it even matter? California will carve out their own laws as they see fit regardless of any SCOTUS decision. I think that's the harsh reality check of our situation. |
#2100
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Really? Even the Court itself says it is no part of the opinion. It is a summary prepared by Court staff prior to publication; it is not the opinion nor endorsed by the opinion writer. It may be entirely accurate (or not) BUT IT CANNOT BE CITED IN ANY COURT OF LAW AS BINDING PRECEDENT! Please please please get a clue.
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#2101
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Probably good time to submit application. |
#2102
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Allow me to preface the following with I think we should have a choice of open or concealed carry, with concealed carry of handguns favored in public places.
The 800 pound gorilla in the room is that is not the right to right to keep and bear concealable handguns, it is the right to keep and bear arms. Arms include swords and long guns, which cannot be carried concealed.
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![]() Last edited by ojisan; 05-13-2022 at 3:21 PM.. |
#2103
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Wait, what? I'm being 100% serious here and was just trying to help. They're going to update the calendar with more releases.
To show good faith, I will try to respond to the rest of your post. I think the likelihood of it being dropped is low. With the current composition of the court, this will probably be the last chance to release a favorable ruling on the 2nd Amendment. The worst case I'm expecting is a watered down or weak ruling to get enough support from the majority. And yes, I'm tired of waiting, too. I've had my fingers crossed since 1996. Last edited by FreshTapCoke; 05-11-2022 at 5:09 PM.. |
#2104
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This was my predicate: "Let's assume that the SCOTUS calendar showing no opinion issuances thru June is accurate . . ." This was the predicate you tried to represent me with: "showing no opinion issuances thru June is accurate . . ." Then you proceded to attack / correct me on the basis of YOUR predicate: "This is accurate, but it's not accurate to draw the conclusion that the calendar cannot be updated again." A position I of course never took. You committed a strawman. Doing so accidently is one thing. Understand that if you do it as a habit, you're outing yourself as a dishonest person who refuses to represent others accurately. Careful... =8-|
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Justice Thomas: " I find it extremely improbable that the Framers understood the Second Amendment to protect little more than carrying a gun from the bedroom to the kitchen. " |
#2105
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Ahh, I understand and see now! Thank you for the explanation.
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#2106
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1. Previously, I assumed that J. Barrett would be writing Dobbs, leaving NYSRPA to J. Thomas. Now that it appears J. Alito is writing Dobbs, I think J. Barrett probably has NYSRPA. Note that last term, J. Thomas did not pen the majority opinion in any of the ideologically divided cases ( https://www.scotusblog.com/wp-conten...07.02.2021.pdf
https://www.scotusblog.com/wp-conten...ded-7.6.21.pdf ). Partly, I suspect it was CJ Roberts preventing J. Thomas from penning those majority opinions. But one might also question whether J. Thomas is actually capable of "massing the Court", i.e. pen and defend a majority opinion and prevent defections. Thomas's clarity of thinking may also make it harder for him to hold a majority. Of course, we're not talking about the possibility of defeat here, just the magnitude of victory. J. Barrett made some remarks during argument that suggest that she may be sympathetic to a broad definition of "sensitive places". Let's hope they don't make it into her opinion. 2. J. Thomas wrote in his Silvester v. Becerra dissent: Quote:
Even assuming J. Thomas is writing NYSRPA (which I doubt), I don't think Thomas can come up with the kind of be-all-and-end-all of 2A opinions that some people are hoping for. I'm reminded of Margaret Thatcher's somewhat sad conclusion: Quote:
And that's not taking into account possible per curiams, GVRs, and dare we hope for the occasional "cert before judgment"? One should not underestimate the importance of these decisions. They might seem insignificant because there was no full argument. But they may actually be more significant because of that fact. They may indicate to lower courts that gun control is so obviously wrong that the Court will quickly reverse lower courts without full argument. In time, lower courts may wish to avoid that kind of embarrassment. 3. I think I need to point out that the concealed carry language in Heller is, strictly speaking, dicta, not the core holding. The Court can overrule its precedents, let alone dicta. One rather remarkable set of examples is the qualified immunity cases of Saucier v. Katz (2001) and Pearson v. Callahan (2009). Pearson significantly limited Saucier. Saucier was decided by (arguably) 8-1 and Pearson was unanimous. Yet 7/9 members of the Court were completely the same in both cases! In short, I'm not convinced that the concealed carry language in Heller will significantly influence NYSRPA because it was dicta. Furthermore, justices do change their minds. (J. Scalia in Ring v. Arizona (2002): "Since Walton (1990), I have acquired new wisdom that consists of two realizations–or, to put it more critically, have discarded old ignorance....") Last edited by htjyang; 05-12-2022 at 6:16 AM.. |
#2107
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I’m hoping that if we get a favorable ruling, fixed-blade knives and such would be covered as well, although I think that issue would have to be further litigated in lower courts under a different level of scrutiny. |
#2108
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Elect Ben Therriault for Contra Costa Sheriff! https://www.ben4sheriff.com/ccw Elect Kevin Jensen for Santa Clara Sheriff! https://www.kevinjensen4sheriff.com/ Re-elect Los Angeles County Sheriff Villanueva! https://alexvillanueva.org/ 240+ examples of CCWs Saving Lives. Last edited by Paladin; 05-12-2022 at 8:35 AM.. |
#2109
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#2110
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I stand by my assertion that if scotus gives zero f’s as to overturning Roe then the same 5 will give zero f’s about a strong 2nd amendment holding. |
#2111
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Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
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#2112
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https://ballotpedia.org/Supreme_Cour...term_2021-2022 These are the 9 that had argument dates sometime in 2021 that still don't have an decision out. Hemphill v. New York New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization Shinn v. Ramirez Patel v. Garland Carson v. Makin United States v. Taylor Becerra v. Empire Health Foundation American Hospital Association v. Becerra |
#2113
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What does that mean for us in Calif. ? we all know that Newsom will fight it even if it was the Supreme Court. What could he do to stop it ? by the way, I don't have a lot of faith that they will allow carry.
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#2114
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If a shall issue regime is imposed, that only means no discretion or need for "good cause". But it doesn't mean that they cannot try to jack up the training requirement, perhaps even a proficiency requirement (as some counties now do), or massively increase the application costs. By w ay of example, my recollection is that when DiFi got her ccw, she had to pass the same proficiency requirements as imposed on LEOs. All this despite the absence of evidence that licensed carriers are a source of accidental or intentional shootings....
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#2115
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Requiring a proficiency test to carry, “Bear” is like requiring an IQ test to vote.
Therefore I see the decision expanding Heller to “outside the home for self defense” less “sensitive places” is the core right, also without dicta as to mode of carry. That too should be left to the choice of the person exercising their right. |
#2116
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Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
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#2117
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I foresee games with the standard of GMC, and absent that, the need for the state legislature, with willing LE agencies, to “analyze” the whole decision (if favorable to the citizenry) for a long time first. Then kill it for Californians by way of endless hoops, insurances, training, verifications, etc. Each of those may need to be litigated, so that will get the states more time. Meanwhile, some of us will die off before meaningful change ever really happens.
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#2119
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