Japan Ends State Of Emergency...

[Dan_Eastvale]

Fully opens economy..
Time to follow suit..

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[Hammertime]

Originally Posted by Dan_Eastvale

Fully opens economy..
Time to follow suit..

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Bonsai!!!!!

[smashycrashy]

We have 1 million active cases..

They have *checks notes*... 2,000

[Hammertime]

Originally Posted by smashycrashy

We have 1 million active cases..

They have *checks notes*... 2,000

What is your solution?

Per Worldometers, we are ranked lower than most European countries in deaths per million.

I hope we don’t lose more in any nation but relativity is key.

If our economy dies, so do many many further millions in dependent nations.

Just found this and don’t want to double post.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politic...deaths-n423763

“ Once you separate downstate New York from the rest of the United States, it jumps to the top (by a long shot), while the rest of the United States is at the bottom—barely edging out Switzerland.”

A lot of this IS on the blue state elites.

[smashycrashy]

Originally Posted by Hammertime

What is your solution?

Per Worldometers, we are ranked lower than most European countries in deaths per million.

We are 6th (edit, its late an I was just scanning the data manually) for active cases per million (it won't show it, you have to calculate it yourself), I'd wait for all those to resolve before comparing deaths per million.

There is no easy solution once you've let it get so far out of hand. People (old or unhealthy or those who don't want to infect their old or unhealthy kin) are going to take themselves out of circulation and you are going to have at least a major recession regardless. You have to make people feel safe and we are nowhere close to doing that.

China just tested 9 million residents in Wuhan using pooled sampling (put multiples samples together and if that pool is positive then test individually). We have simply got to get the numbers low enough for test/quarantine/trace to work. Mass testing in controlled areas would ensure they don't turn into big problems while we tackle the big areas, which also require lots of testing but pooling wouldn't work on large infections.

But lets say we simply have to open up everything now.. would face masks and social distance not be a good first step? Yes, even in the areas that are low because we see small problems become big ones quickly. There appears to be a tremendous fear over legitimizing Coronavirus versus actually trying to manage or solve it. And as long as we are still in that space at the end of May it certainly doesn't lead to hope for enough population buy in for things to work.

[smashycrashy]

Originally Posted by Hammertime

Just found this and don’t want to double post.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politic...deaths-n423763

“ Once you separate downstate New York from the rest of the United States, it jumps to the top (by a long shot), while the rest of the United States is at the bottom—barely edging out Switzerland.”

A lot of this IS on the blue state elites.

I've often found that if I remove the annoying numbers from my data set it makes my other data look better too..

Did World Trade Center not happen on 9/11 because it happened in New York?

New York didn't get it first but it got it worse.. early.. along with its insane population density showed you very quickly what the virus will do when left unchecked. You quite simply don't want this running through your cities unchecked, it is pure insanity to think otherwise.

[Hammertime]

Originally Posted by smashycrashy

We are 3rd for active cases per million (it won't show it, you have to calculate it yourself), I'd wait for all those to resolve before comparing deaths per million.

There is no easy solution once you've let it get so far out of hand. People (old or unhealthy or those who don't want to infect their old or unhealthy kin) are going to take themselves out of circulation and you are going to have at least a major recession regardless. You have to make people feel safe and we are nowhere close to doing that.

China just tested 9 million residents in Wuhan using pooled sampling (put multiples samples together and if that pool is positive then test individually). We have simply got to get the numbers low enough for test/quarantine/trace to work. Mass testing in controlled areas would ensure they don't turn into big problems while we tackle the big areas, which also require lots of testing but pooling wouldn't work on large infections.

But lets say we simply have to open up everything now.. would face masks and social distance not be a good first step? Yes, even in the areas that are low because we see small problems become big ones quickly. There appears to be a tremendous fear over legitimizing Coronavirus versus actually trying to manage or solve it. And as long as we are still in that space at the end of May it certainly doesn't lead to hope for enough population buy in for things to work.

How is that manageable when economies must reopen or there will not be a system that can sample pools of populations?

[Hammertime]

Originally Posted by smashycrashy

I've often found that if I remove the annoying numbers from my data set it makes my other data look better too..

Did World Trade Center not happen on 9/11 because it happened in New York?

New York didn't get it first but it got it worse.. early.. along with its insane population density showed you very quickly what the virus will do when left unchecked. You quite simply don't want this running through your cities unchecked, it is pure insanity to think otherwise.

Obviously putting COVID patients in with nursing home residents wasn’t a good idea either.

I’m sure you forgot to mention that on accident.

[smashycrashy]

Originally Posted by Hammertime

How is that manageable when economies must reopen or there will not be a system that can sample pools of populations?

Way not to read.

[Creampuff]

Originally Posted by Hammertime

Bonsai!!!!!

You want to prune plants to a miniature size ???

[sd_shooter]

Originally Posted by smashycrashy

We have 1 million active cases..

They have *checks notes*... 2,000

So? A "case" is a runny nose at best - most "cases" won't even know they have a corona virus.

(Fatties, diabetics, the elderly and those with heart disease - feel free to stay at home and wear a mask, you're actually in the risk group.)

[ACfixer]

Originally Posted by smashycrashy

We have 1 million active cases..

They have *checks notes*... 2,000

Do you have a laptop under your bed?

Obviously with 2,000 cases if they open back up they might have a million soon enough right? Just as obvious, they've decided the economic fallout from playing chicken little is way worse that just dealing with those that get sick.

[smashycrashy]

Originally Posted by ACfixer

Do you have a laptop under your bed?

Obviously with 2,000 cases if they open back up they might have a million soon enough right? Just as obvious, they've decided the economic fallout from playing chicken little is way worse that just dealing with those that get sick.

You do agree 2,000 is way less than 1,000,000 right?

Japan has been proactive and able to contain it, we have been completely reactive and it shows.

Do you think Japan would be declaring emergency over with 450k cases (population adjusted case load for Japan) and cases still rising? No way in hell.

So the OP holds Japan as a model, I agree it is.. but it is how to handle the Coronavirus and then open up not bungle the response.. then open up.

[newbutold]

Appears the Japanese people are trying not to infect each other by wearing masks.......hope it helps

[Den60]

Originally Posted by smashycrashy

We have 1 million active cases..

They have *checks notes*... 2,000

People have been questioning the "active cases" numbers for the US for weeks now. We have 1.7 cases since the start and still have 1.1 now? That is BS.

[toro1]

Originally Posted by Den60

People have been questioning the "active cases" numbers for the US for weeks now. We have 1.7 cases since the start and still have 1.1 now? That is BS.

My mom tested positive on April 8th and her last test in early May showed she was still positive. They stopped testing her at that point so she is till shown as positive but they have removed her from quarantine.

Something seems very off with her situation and I wonder if the positive keeps going to get better reimbursement rates, but that is pure speculation on my part.

As for the original thread, good for Japan and right now the CDC data says the US is running at 98% of its expected deaths from all causes. The major outliers continue to be in NY, NJ, and Mass so for those that think we should still be locking things down, do it there, quarantine those areas and let everywhere else get back to normal.

[smashycrashy]

Originally Posted by Den60

People have been questioning the "active cases" numbers for the US for weeks now. We have 1.7 cases since the start and still have 1.1 now? That is BS.

We’ve had 1.7 million cases “since the start”?

[duenor]

Originally Posted by creampuff

You want to prune plants to a miniature size ???

ROFL yeah, when I saw that I had to laugh. Best joke of the day so far.

Banzai

Bonsai

[Hammertime]

Originally Posted by creampuff

You want to prune plants to a miniature size ???

It also means “live long”. Just realized autocorrect put me on the tree spelling Hahahaha!!!

I was trying to wish them well on reopening.

[duenor]

Originally Posted by smashycrashy

You do agree 2,000 is way less than 1,000,000 right?

Japan has been proactive and able to contain it, we have been completely reactive and it shows.

Do you think Japan would be declaring emergency over with 450k cases (population adjusted case load for Japan) and cases still rising? No way in hell.

So the OP holds Japan as a model, I agree it is.. but it is how to handle the Coronavirus and then open up not bungle the response.. then open up.

Japan closes every single school in the nation very early - we don't close schools (till much later)
Japan masks up all the time - we tell everyone not to (till much later)
Japan implemented heavy contact tracing via 25,000 experienced infection tracking nurses - we put a sign up that says "leads the world in testing"
Japan gets their cases down to 1,844 & reopens - we have ~20,000 new cases every day and we proclaim that it is time to reopen

Yeah, I'm done trusting our wise leaders with looking out for my safety. The worst part about all of this is that this bungling should not be happening. We are the wealthiest nation on the planet. We have capabilities far surpassing any other nation on the globe. 3M and Prestige Ameritech alone could have easily supplied all of our medical staff with all the PPE they needed, without having ever to resort to WWII style production (ie, IBM M1 Carbines). And yet to this very day hospitals and states are squabbling with each other over who gets the next order of marked up equipment. Why? At any moment right now we could still fix this. But we are not.

So we are all reopening anyway. All right, I agree can't remain paralyzed. Hope everyone is ok and this is all just fake numbers like I've been increasingly hearing from earnest friends of all stripes. I'd love for that to be the case.

[Hammertime]

Originally Posted by duenor

Japan closes schools very early - we don't close schools (till much later)
Japan masks up very early - we tell everyone not to (till much later)
Japan does active contact tracing and testing - we put a sign up that says "leads the world in testing"
Japan gets their cases down to 1,844 & reopens - we have ~20,000 new cases every day and we proclaim that it is time to reopen

Yeah, I'm done trusting our wise leaders with looking out for the safety of me and mine.

I believe EVERY leader, be it state, local or federal, didn’t know what to do.

They still don’t.

This is many decades of state, local and nationwide elections coming back to bite us.

I also believe that if Trump HAD tried to do much more than what he did, he would have just been put on trial time and time again like what we’ve seen the last 3 years.

[Den60]

Originally Posted by smashycrashy

We’ve had 1.7 million cases “since the start”?

And 81% of those are mild cases which resolve within 14 days. The math doesn't add up when you are saying 66.7% cases have yet to be resolved.

[SanDiego619]

We need to open up. People will not die, or some might die. We need to open up or the entire country will die. It's quite simple. Open everything now.

[Dan_Eastvale]

The way my state and others are opening.. 6 flags opens in a week or so.. playgrounds open here.. kids play with friends and attend birthdays..movies open in two weeks... no mandated masks.
Trump really pushing opening.
I'm now starting to think most things normal in Sept start of school..
The Dem states are screaming at Trump for pushing this.. Even though he and we are right!!! Stock market today agrees...

[cleonard]

Originally Posted by Den60

And 81% of those are mild cases which resolve within 14 days. The math doesn't add up when you are saying 66.7% cases have yet to be resolved.

I believe that this is just due to our reporting system. We are good at tallying the number in a hospital, the results of tests and counting bodies. We are not so good at counting those who recover. It's more like we have no data on those 66.7% one way or the other. I'm sure that some of them are still in the hospital, just not all of them.

[duenor]

Originally Posted by Hammertime

I believe EVERY leader, be it state, local or federal, didn’t know what to do.

They still don’t.

This is many decades of state, local and nationwide elections coming back to bite us.

I also believe that if Trump HAD tried to do much more than what he did, he would have just been put on trial time and time again like what we’ve seen the last 3 years.

Yes. It is a mixture of ignorance (often willful), incompetence, and opportunistic acrimony. Just poor leadership in so many quarters. I'm sure there are good leaders, we just don't see or hear from them. The loudmouths hog up all the attention. But well, we elected these people.

As for Trump, I don't want to engage in blaming or criticizing any more. What's done or not done is already in the past. We are still the greatest nation on the planet, and we can make things right now. I hope the leaders, such as they are, will make better decisions in the future. But I've given up hoping that government will get it together.

Now Americans, our fellow Americans, are busy fighting and calling each other names instead of getting their own acts together as individuals. Look - we are reopening up, ready or not, because we have to. I know this first hand, because I'm looking at letting go at least two people that I know for sure don't have much of a safety net. And I'm the tiniest of potatoes - there's 30-40 million of my fellow Americans in trouble right now. They are looking at losing their homes, and worried about putting food on the table. FOOD ON THE TABLE! In the USA! Each month I have a recurring donation to my local AFL post. Nothing worth mentioning at all except that the $ is going to these brave men and women buying food and bringing it to people's homes. That's really bad, when we have enough people who can't afford food that local organizations are mobilizing in this way. So, yeah, we have to reopen - one way or another. But there's the rub - we can do it wisely, or we can muck it up even worse than before. It's all up to us, as individuals.

So, I'm going to take every single precaution, even if it's unlikely to help much. I'm planning to err way on the side of caution, and if in the end we spent time and money on things that we didn't need to, well, we've wasted money on much dumber things before.

[Den60]

Originally Posted by cleonard

I believe that this is just due to our reporting system. We are good at tallying the number in a hospital, the results of tests and counting bodies. We are not so good at counting those who recover. It's more like we have no data on those 66.7% one way or the other. I'm sure that some of them are still in the hospital, just not all of them.

So you're saying that smashy is relying on poor data. I'm good with that.

Per the most recent data, we have just over 17,100 serious/critical cases. I expect those are the ones in the hospital. Add that to the 95K deaths and we have approx 113,000 who died or are in the hospital yet smashy is claiming there are 1.14M active cases.

[Hammertime]

Originally Posted by duenor

Yes. It is a mixture of ignorance (often willful), incompetence, and opportunistic acrimony. Just poor leadership in so many quarters. I'm sure there are good leaders, we just don't see or hear from them. The loudmouths hog up all the attention. But well, we elected these people.

As for Trump, I don't want to engage in blaming or criticizing any more. What's done or not done is already in the past. We are still the greatest nation on the planet, and we can make things right now. I hope the leaders, such as they are, will make better decisions in the future. But I've given up hoping that government will get it together.

Now Americans, our fellow Americans, are busy fighting and calling each other names instead of getting their own acts together as individuals. Look - we are reopening up, ready or not, because we have to. I know this first hand, because I'm looking at letting go at least two people that I know for sure don't have much of a safety net. And I'm the tiniest of potatoes - there's 30-40 million of my fellow Americans in trouble right now. They are looking at losing their homes, and worried about putting food on the table. FOOD ON THE TABLE! In the USA! Each month I have a recurring donation to my local AFL post. Nothing worth mentioning at all except that the $ is going to these brave men and women buying food and bringing it to people's homes. That's really bad, when we have enough people who can't afford food that local organizations are mobilizing in this way. So, yeah, we have to reopen - one way or another. But there's the rub - we can do it wisely, or we can muck it up even worse than before. It's all up to us, as individuals.

So, I'm going to take every single precaution, even if it's unlikely to help much. I'm planning to err way on the side of caution, and if in the end we spent time and money on things that we didn't need to, well, we've wasted money on much dumber things before.

Well said!

[as_rocketman]

Originally Posted by toro1

My mom tested positive on April 8th and her last test in early May showed she was still positive. They stopped testing her at that point so she is till shown as positive but they have removed her from quarantine.

Something seems very off with her situation and I wonder if the positive keeps going to get better reimbursement rates, but that is pure speculation on my part.

There are known outlier cases that take MONTHS to fully seroconvert, and then show negative on PCR tests. Some take so long that it was wondered whether they were getting reinfected, but we now believe the virus sometimes has a time-release that continues to trigger PCR. All the latest information says your mom will be fine at this point, just slow to read clean on the test. I see no reason to suspect trickery here.

Originally Posted by cleonard

I believe that this is just due to our reporting system. We are good at tallying the number in a hospital, the results of tests and counting bodies. We are not so good at counting those who recover. It's more like we have no data on those 66.7% one way or the other. I'm sure that some of them are still in the hospital, just not all of them.

One of the more useful statistics to follow is the number of hospital beds in use for COVID-19. This is less noisy than trying to add "Active" to "Recovered" cases, since the threshold for recovery is a little bit nebulous, and not all cases are tracked to completion, as you note.

[SanDiego619]

At this point we just need to open up and let the chips fall where they may.

[Coolguy101]

Originally Posted by duenor

Japan closes every single school in the nation very early - we don't close schools (till much later)
Japan masks up all the time - we tell everyone not to (till much later)
Japan implemented heavy contact tracing via 25,000 experienced infection tracking nurses - we put a sign up that says "leads the world in testing"
Japan gets their cases down to 1,844 & reopens - we have ~20,000 new cases every day and we proclaim that it is time to reopen

Yeah, I'm done trusting our wise leaders with looking out for my safety. The worst part about all of this is that this bungling should not be happening. We are the wealthiest nation on the planet. We have capabilities far surpassing any other nation on the globe. 3M and Prestige Ameritech alone could have easily supplied all of our medical staff with all the PPE they needed, without having ever to resort to WWII style production (ie, IBM M1 Carbines). And yet to this very day hospitals and states are squabbling with each other over who gets the next order of marked up equipment. Why? At any moment right now we could still fix this. But we are not.

So we are all reopening anyway. All right, I agree can't remain paralyzed. Hope everyone is ok and this is all just fake numbers like I've been increasingly hearing from earnest friends of all stripes. I'd love for that to be the case.

I lived in Japan for a while, and they have an established practice to wear a mask if you are sick so that you don't infect others. They learned long ago that in such a densely packed population, wearing masks DOES help prevent the transmission of illnesses to others.

3M was unable to do much to bring more masks over here as over 50% of their production worldwide is located in China, and the Chinese government started to block them from shipping to the US and kept all the masks in China for themselves.

Trump tried to force manufacturers to do wartime production of masks and PPE, but the bottom line is they just weren't set up for it and it takes time to get up and running. Remember, its just been a couple of months. WWII lasted a few years. I'm confident if he is re-elected that all that will change, as he will continue to push made in USA as he has already done.

[Coolguy101]

Originally Posted by SanDiego619

At this point we just need to open up and let the chips fall where they may.

Amazing how people want to give up after just two months of adversity. We now know the extent of America's resolve now, and so does the rest of the world - especially our enemies. They have been watching, taking notes, and planning.

[SanDiego619]

Originally Posted by Coolguy101

Amazing how people want to give up after just two months of adversity. We now know the extent of America's resolve now, and so does the rest of the world - especially our enemies. They have been watching, taking notes, and planning.

The two months of adversity was completely fabricated. We were never under any threat. The virus is similar to the flu in severity. You are amazed that Americans want to give up destroying the economy? It is amazing how Americans are clamoring to give up their rights and destroy the economy over the sniffles.

[user120312]

Unsurprising, Japan is like the Borg. Totally different culture and intellectual process. That's why a tiny island country could be so formidable in WW2. The same zeal, coordination and single mindedness that killed thousands of our citizens eliminates the threat of a virus like it was nothing.

[sd_shooter]

Originally Posted by user120312

Unsurprising, Japan is like the Borg. Totally different culture and intellectual process. That's why a tiny island country could be so formidable in WW2. The same zeal, coordination and single mindedness that killed thousands of our citizens eliminates the threat of a virus like it was nothing.

Quite true.

Want to be Japanese?
- Give up your big house & yard
- No SUV, no truck
- No guns

Liberal wet dream

[SanDiego619]

Originally Posted by sd_shooter

Quite true.

Want to be Japanese?
- Give up your big house & yard
- No SUV, no truck
- No guns

Liberal wet dream

They don't have mosques blasting the call to prayer (Obama's favorite sound) anywhere though, so that's one plus for Japan

[Dan_Eastvale]

Thank God we are NOT cog people in the Japananese machine...
And Trump is respecting our RIGHT to choose to be afraid and scurry and hide in our homes or behind our masks or NOT to be afraid... Choosing to rapidly open up our businesses and schools.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[SanDiego619]

Originally Posted by Dan_Eastvale

Thank God we are NOT cog people in the Japananese machine...
And Trump is respecting our RIGHT to choose to be afraid and scurry and hide in our homes or behind our masks or NOT to be afraid... Choosing to rapidly open up our businesses and schools.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Trump should fire Gavin Newsom and let us get back to normal. No "social distancing" no masks no limiting what people can do in any way whatsoever. The entire thing was complete BS to begin with. Absolutely stupid, we destroyed the economy and put millions out of work for NOTHING!!!!!! I hope people remember this in November!!

[cleonard]

Originally Posted by SanDiego619

Trump should fire Gavin Newsom and let us get back to normal. No "social distancing" no masks no limiting what people can do in any way whatsoever. The entire thing was complete BS to begin with. Absolutely stupid, we destroyed the economy and put millions out of work for NOTHING!!!!!! I hope people remember this in November!!

As much as I'd like Gavin gone, it don't work that way.

The other problem is too many will remember what the mainstream media is telling them to remember.

[SanDiego619]

Originally Posted by cleonard

As much as I'd like Gavin gone, it don't work that way.

The other problem is too many will remember what the mainstream media is telling them to remember.

I know I know, the part about firing newsom was of course, a joke! Us voters must fire him... by voting for someone other than him. Unfortunately we have to wait until 2022.