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2nd Amend. Litigation Updates & Legal Discussion Discuss California 2A related litigation and legal topics here. All advice given is NOT legal counsel.

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  #1161  
Old 07-12-2020, 3:07 PM
pacrat pacrat is online now
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Originally Posted by Offwidth View Post
Until 100% inevitable reversal. And subsequent denial of cert.

Seriously, is there anyone believing we actually have a chance?
NOPE

Not after the can kicking that the Roberts SCOTUS pulled.

9th CIRCUS now has Carte Blanche to continue allowing Ca Legislature to crap on the Constitution.
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  #1162  
Old 07-14-2020, 9:04 AM
CCWFacts CCWFacts is offline
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Seriously, is there anyone believing we actually have a chance?
What's the probability calculation based on the composition of the 9th at the time the en banc was selected? Just intuitively it seems like a 10% chance, but someone could calculate it.

Also note that there's a high chance of RBG or perhaps one of the other liberals leaving SCOTUS while Trump still has a chance to make a replacement. This case is on a ventilator but isn't dead.
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  #1163  
Old 07-14-2020, 10:12 AM
Maverick237 Maverick237 is offline
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Originally Posted by CCWFacts View Post
What's the probability calculation based on the composition of the 9th at the time the en banc was selected? Just intuitively it seems like a 10% chance, but someone could calculate it.

Also note that there's a high chance of RBG or perhaps one of the other liberals leaving SCOTUS while Trump still has a chance to make a replacement. This case is on a ventilator but isn't dead.
Thomas, a Dem. appointee will always be on en-banc.

There are 10 seats on an en-banc court as a result not counting Thomas. There are currently 13 Republican appointed justices and 15 Democrat ones (not counting Thomas). In order to have a majority this means that 6 have to be Republican (this will result in a 6 - 5 split) out of 10, selected out of a total of 28 justices.

The odds are honestly not that good. It's a 17% chance that we get exactly 6 Republican appointed justices (it goes down to 5% for getting exactly 7 and then 1% for 8). There is a 29% chance that 5 justices selected are democrats (it goes down to 27% for 6 and 14% for 7). This results in an overall percent of a little over 23% that we have a Republican appointed majority for this en-banc case.

This calculation was done using the method for draws without replacement. It is not the be-all, end-all calculation. It is merely showing what is the chance that a specific circumstance would occur (in this case, choosing 10 justices out of 28 and having 6 of those be Republican appointed when there are a total of 13 of them in that 28).

Then again, it was a 7% chance that the Duncan case would've had 3 Republican-appointed justices and a 35% chance we would've had 2 picked so there was an overall 42% percent of having a majority.

Last edited by Maverick237; 07-14-2020 at 10:23 AM.. Reason: Updated overall percenage
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  #1164  
Old 07-14-2020, 7:51 PM
LVSox LVSox is offline
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Originally Posted by Maverick237 View Post
Thomas, a Dem. appointee will always be on en-banc.

There are 10 seats on an en-banc court as a result not counting Thomas. There are currently 13 Republican appointed justices and 15 Democrat ones (not counting Thomas). In order to have a majority this means that 6 have to be Republican (this will result in a 6 - 5 split) out of 10, selected out of a total of 28 justices.
As I noted a couple of weeks ago, the panel was selected last February, when there were only 6 non-senior Republican appointees to 17 Democrat appointees. The odds are much, much worse than that.
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