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CA Election Forum Discussion, Planning and Activism for California local elections |
View Poll Results: Has Elder's entry into the race changed the math? | |||
Elder insures/ensures a “Yes” on Question #1 & is my choice. | 122 | 81.88% | |
Elder insures/ensures a “Yes” on Question #1, but Jenner is my choice. | 0 | 0% | |
Elder doesn’t insure/ensure a “Yes” on Question #1 & there’s still no viable alternative. | 3 | 2.01% | |
Elder brings nothing to the race, we’re likely to get a “No,” and Newsom will remain. | 16 | 10.74% | |
Someone needs to put “Bacon” up as a candidate if we want Newsom gone. | 8 | 5.37% | |
Voters: 149. You may not vote on this poll |
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#1
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With Larry Elder Now On The Ballot In Governor's Race, Has The Math Changed? Updated
We just had a two-page thread in OT on... Larry Elder has entered the recall race for Governor... where even Kestryll noted...
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Has Elder's entry into the race changed the math? Are we now more likely to get the "Yes" on Question #1? Or, is the field still too crowded for a viable alternative to be 'seen' and, thus, reducing the chances of getting that vital "Yes" to Question #1? Remember, we're going to need millions more "Yes" votes than we had signatures on the Recall petition. See Post #41: Judge rules that Elder will be on ballot. Last edited by TrappedinCalifornia; 07-21-2021 at 1:48 PM.. |
#2
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The question is, do we really want Newscum to get recalled?
I mean, I remember a significant portion of CG’ers content with Kamala going to DC to become a senator because she would have less of an impact on Ca. Well, how’s that working out? I wouldn’t be surprised if he is recalled that shortly there after ChomoJoe gets 25th’ed and Newscum finds himself as VP. Is anyone else concerned with this outcome? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro |
#5
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Larry Elder has always been a man of integrity. Who believes our Constitution is a sacred document. |
#6
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Wouldn’t put it past those dem rat bastards to try...
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https://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/....php?t=1884858 |
#7
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I'm not so much worried about Newsom becoming VP. I would be more worried about him being appointed to some position where he's not directly answerable to the voters, but can still very much work against us and rehabilitate his 'name' on the national level. Then again, once Aunt Nancy is 'out of the picture' (retired, no longer Speaker, etc.), I'm not sure how 'beloved' he is on the national level and, thus, how much assistance he might receive on that score. |
#8
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Larry Elder seems to be a fine man, and easily the best choice for our next governor.
Donate to his campaign as soon as possible, because the globalist corporations will be supporting Newsom with unlimited funds. https://www.electelder.com/bio/ |
#9
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Kamala improved her resume nationally by becoming a senator but Gavin will be marked as a loser if he gets booted out by his own liberal state. Can you imagine the campaign ads and debates in a democrat primary against newsome? I think it will be the end of his career.
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NRA-ILA Lawmaker Contact Tool “When you want to kill a man, you must shoot for the heart and the Winchester is the best weapon." -Ramon, A Fistful of Dollars Quote:
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#10
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There is also a difference between winning an election and pumping in millions of fraudulent votes to “secure” an election. To think anything would be a death nail in a demonrats political career in this current climate is… funny. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro |
#11
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Elder's entry makes "Yes" more likely because it will draw in new voters of color. There are Dems running, and the only way to ensure a plurality for a conservative win is to vote for JOHN COX, who has name rec from WINNING nomination by GOP in the last election.
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David R Duringer JD LL.M (Tax), CA/WA/TX atty, @guntrust on social nets. Protective Law Corporation *Estate Planning for Gun Owners* (zoom or office) Become an affiliated attorney/advisor: http://guncounsel.com CRPA Mag Must Retract Erroneous Bulletin Slamming Gun Trusts Radio ads: http://Protect.FM FREE training: http://guntrust.org FREE design meeting: http://Protect.LIFE |
#12
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Cox lost, so it seems more sensible to back a different person.
Elder is a fresh face with solid views, and I think he has a much better chance to win. After all, according to Leftists anyone that refuses to vote for Larry Elder is a KKK supporting racist. |
#14
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Only a plurality is required, and the way to win that kind of race is to excite grassroots conservatives. I'm a fan of Larry Elder and he's been around a long time, but i doubt his name rec equals that of JOHN COX, a proven winner who beat out all GOP competition to earn the nomination last time. Jeepers, we have less than two months and that's not enough time to experiment with how the electorate responds to a face for radio, or a face too young to shave (Kiley).
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David R Duringer JD LL.M (Tax), CA/WA/TX atty, @guntrust on social nets. Protective Law Corporation *Estate Planning for Gun Owners* (zoom or office) Become an affiliated attorney/advisor: http://guncounsel.com CRPA Mag Must Retract Erroneous Bulletin Slamming Gun Trusts Radio ads: http://Protect.FM FREE training: http://guntrust.org FREE design meeting: http://Protect.LIFE |
#16
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So Kamala Harris, who dropped out of the Democrat primaries before they even started, and had a 3% support in Iowa despite heavy campaigning there, is now our next president?
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"The right to keep and bear arms . . . is not the only constitutional right that has controversial public safety implications. -- Justice Alito, McDonald v. Chicago |
#19
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Elder is easily the best candidate of the conservative group of candidates.
Cox has previously lost a statewide election. The only sane thing to do is for all conservative candidates to drop off the ballot so Larry Elder can win. Any other conservative that remains on the ballot (Cox included) will only dilute conservatives votes. I will never support any of these secondary, has been candidates in the future as they are guaranteeing a loss to a Marxist, and if they remain on the ballot Larry Elder’s chances to win will be greatly reduced. We have a real chance to place a good man in the governors house, and selfish, washed up, low energy and low recognition Republicans are going to ruin our chances of victory. The mainstream Republican/Rino party is disgusting, and I have come to the realization that they don’t want to win. They are as much our enemy as the marxists. Support Larry Elder for governor, or a left winger will win. https://www.electelder.com/bio/ Last edited by Elgatodeacero; 07-16-2021 at 9:29 AM.. |
#20
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I put a few bucks in his "tip jar" as well. Maybe more latter if he starts getting some more traction. Go get 'em Larry - we've got a State to save..........
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NRA & CRPA member semi-docile tax payer amateur survivalist Nolite te bastardes carborundorum! |
#21
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If the dems are going to cheat this whole discussion is moot.
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NRA-ILA Lawmaker Contact Tool “When you want to kill a man, you must shoot for the heart and the Winchester is the best weapon." -Ramon, A Fistful of Dollars Quote:
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#22
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NRA-ILA Lawmaker Contact Tool “When you want to kill a man, you must shoot for the heart and the Winchester is the best weapon." -Ramon, A Fistful of Dollars Quote:
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#23
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Fify Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro |
#24
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Elder is a far better candidate ideologically, has a media outlet and substantial name recognition, plus recognition in other States that are important for fundraising purposes, and even the Leftists at the L.A. Times think that he might actually have a chance. I'll vote for him over Cox any day. It's not even a contest in my mind. |
#25
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The Dems will try to put him is some government post, maybe an ambassador or something like that. They know he’ll do their bidding, so they will try to keep him around somehow.
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"To preserve liberty, it is essential that the whole body of the people always possess arms, and be taught alike, especially when young, how to use them" - Richard Henry Lee |
#26
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While I support Larry Elder, I believe our best tactic is to make sure Newsom gets recalled and that only happens with 50% + 1 .
Hopefully the democrat field will fill up with candidates, as the more people running, the better chance Newsom gets recalled. Remember the 1st question is, should he be recalled. |
#27
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But, as I noted in the OP and elsewhere, the lack of a 'viable alternative' is an hindrance to getting the necessary "Yes" to Question #1... Should Newsom be recalled? Without a viable alternative, there will be many who simply don't vote (either on Question #1 or both) or will vote "No," figuring "the Devil you know" is a more 'viable' solution than "taking a chance" on the uncertainty of who among the 69+ alternatives might 'win.' This is why I'm asking if Elder changes the 'math;' i.e., provides that viable alternative we've been looking for. As we can see from just the above posts, support for Cox is, at best, divided. For those who would object, remember that California has a 'jungle primary' system where the 'top two' vote recipients end up being the eventual candidates and, even there, while Cox managed to take 'second' in the primaries, he was simply more viable than the rest of the alternatives; but, was a far cry from being considered a 'viable alternative' to Newsom. In 2018, there were really only two legitimate Republican options for Governor, Cox and Allen. Combined, in the primary, they garnered a total of 2,425,286 votes; Cox getting 1,766,488 and Allen coming in with 658,798, or about 1/3 of Cox's total. Newsom, all by himself, received 2,343,792 votes in the primary. In the election, Newsom received 7,721,410 while Cox managed 4,742,825. Has anything changed since then? While many voters are upset, disappointed, and/or fed up with Newsom, do they represent enough of the Newsom voting block to elevate Cox or are they simply seeking a more viable alternative and don't necessarily see Cox as anymore viable than they did in 2018? That would appear to be the motivation for Elder. It's not just about getting the 'most' votes in Question #2. It's about getting to Question #2 in the first place... Larry Elder talks politics on the radio. Can he get votes in the California recall election? Quote:
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#29
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He can’t “find himself the VP”…….our order of succession doesn’t allow for someone to just find themselves to become VP. As far as Larry Elder as soon as I heard he may jump in….he had my vote. I’ve been listening to him for a long time. |
#30
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Not sure
If it’s a race between Elder and Newski then Elder has not a chance in CA as much as the calguns echo chamber wants him the numbers are not there. Better 20-30-40 candidates or whatever trying all to get that YES on the recall vote then, if I’m not mistaken, it’s the two highest vote getters - both Republicans to replace. Gotta get 50% plus one on the recall and more candidates will help that not hurt. Hope Elder is one and I think he would be.
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#31
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One way or the other, however, he won't disappear to a "billionaire" lifestyle, at least not immediately. Supposedly, he's only worth $20 million. (A second source agrees with that number and both sources cite 2021 as the last update.) Then there's a third source, from less than a week ago, claiming he has a $22 million net worth. His Aunt Nancy is a bit more circumspect and opaque. According to USA Today back in March... Quote:
But, hey. For Democrats, a +/- of $2 - $20 million is pretty much dead on accurate... right? C'mon man. They're just like the rest of us. Any way you slice it, their "billionaire lifestyle" will have to be financed by someone else. Now... Which billionaire is contributing the most to the cause? A lot of homeless out there and, if Gavin is kicked out of the Governor's mansion, we wouldn't want him to be one of them. That would be... embarrassing. |
#32
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Well... Here we go... He's definitely changed the math... California Recall Candidates Dispute Parts of Official List
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So... We've gone from a list of 69 ostensibly 'declared candidates' to an 'Official list' of 41, where several 'names' are missing with no explanation. According to Ballotpedia... Quote:
Last edited by TrappedinCalifornia; 07-18-2021 at 7:18 PM.. |
#35
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Just being in the position to "hopefully" stop most of the worthless wasteful crap that passes in Ca would be a major plus for the Good Citizens of Ca. I say "hopefully" because of the DimRat Super Majority veto likelihood. |
#36
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If the answer is "No," the rest is moot. If the answer is "Yes," Newsom is done and it goes to Question #2 - Which of the following...? Currently, as per the Secretary of State in California, there are 41 'official' candidates to be listed under Question #2. (Elder is claiming to have dotted all the "I's" and crossed all the "T's," having turned everything in on time and 'threatening' to see them in court if he's not on the ballot.) The certified list is supposed to be released on Wednesday, 21 July. It does not take a majority to win at that point. All that any of those candidates need to do is get one more vote than any of the others. As Ballotpedia explains it... Quote:
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#37
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Its apparent Larry Elder is the greatest threat to the swamp yet seen !
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/lar...ndidate-roster Larry is not listed as candidate ! Apparently the democrat party does not want a proud Black Man running for governor in their lilly white state government. Larry said, regarding his omission from the ballot . " I will see you in court "... Last edited by ja308; 07-19-2021 at 8:05 AM.. |
#38
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Larry Elder Threatens Lawsuit Over Allegation He Didn't Qualify as Gubernatorial Candidate
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What do you think the media's reaction would be? |
#40
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If he submitted tax returns, but they were simply not to the liking of the Secretary merely under subjective viewpoints, I would think the "submission" requirement itself was met and he has a good case for his inclusion as a candidate to stand.
I suspect a court/judge would agree, and he would have grounds to seek an injunction against the recall/election process until the matter of his qualification to be listed as a candidate or not is resolved.
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