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Coronavirus/COVID19 Temp Forum This is a temporary forum for discussion, debate, sharing and helping each other during and in relation to the Coronavirus/COVID19

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  #1  
Old 03-29-2020, 6:45 AM
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Default Dr. Fauci Predicts 100K to 200K U.S. Deaths

...and “millions” of cases.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/...100000-deaths/

ETA: https://twitter.com/numbersmuncher/s...397707776?s=21



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Last edited by Doheny; 03-29-2020 at 8:32 AM..
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Old 03-29-2020, 6:49 AM
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What's a Dearhs?
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Old 03-29-2020, 6:51 AM
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What's a Dearhs?
When you’re really dead
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Old 03-29-2020, 6:57 AM
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When you’re really dead
So many more people will get the Dearhs? Scary.
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Old 03-29-2020, 7:10 AM
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80,000 died of flu a couple years ago. He's predicting worse than that.

Show me the numbers he used to come up with that.
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Old 03-29-2020, 7:32 AM
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The silver lining in all of this is that this thing will take out the idiots of the world.
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Old 03-29-2020, 7:44 AM
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The projections guess 80k... could be as low as 40k or as high at 160k..

My guess is that by saing 100-200k he doing the classic "under promise and over deliver"

So when there are 80,000 deaths they can play the "HEY! It could have been much worse!" card.

Not that I think people are calculating like that... and the good Dr wasn't lying since it COULD be that high.

Personally, even if it's 100,000 I think the economic destruction from a long term total lock down will be worse..
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Old 03-29-2020, 7:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Marthor View Post
80,000 died of flu a couple years ago. He's predicting worse than that.

Show me the numbers he used to come up with that.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Although I'm sure he has access to even better data...

Remember, when we say "80,000 died from the Wuhan Flu".. that's ON TOP of our normal Flu death numbers... so it's a lot of extra people to have dead..

But, not worth the total destruction of our economy..
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Old 03-29-2020, 8:04 AM
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100,000-200,000 deaths out of 1,000,000 cases. That would be a 10%-20% death ratio. Right now the ratio of dead per confirmed cases is 1.8%. Dr. Feces is full of it.
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http://www.wnd.com/2008/11/56494/
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Old 03-29-2020, 8:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Sierra57 View Post
100,000-200,000 deaths out of 1,000,000 cases. That would be a 10%-20% death ratio. Right now the ratio of dead per confirmed cases is 1.8%. Dr. Feces is full of it.

He said millions, not one million.
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Old 03-29-2020, 8:24 AM
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Originally Posted by _TomT_ View Post
The silver lining in all of this is that this thing will take out the idiots of the world.
And the bright, and the right, and the gun owners, and the young, and the old.
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Old 03-29-2020, 8:29 AM
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Originally Posted by capo View Post
He said millions, not one million.
Yes, you are correct. My mistake.

I expect the US death rate to be around 1%-2%. There are many variables that come into play, like age and health of patients, whether it runs rampant in the homeless population and hard drug users, how much treatment improves and how fast that knowledge is passed on, what drugs are made available and/or are newly developed, whether a vaccine can be developed quickly, etc.

We don't know yet how many confirmed cases there will be. It could be 1,000,000 or 20,000,000. We simply don't know. And we will never know how many unconfirmed cases there will be.
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http://www.wnd.com/2008/11/56494/
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Old 03-29-2020, 8:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Sierra57 View Post
100,000-200,000 deaths out of 1,000,000 cases. That would be a 10%-20% death ratio. Right now the ratio of dead per confirmed cases is 1.8% 4.7%. Dr. Feces is full of it.
3/29/2020
Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Total confirmed cases - 701,525
Deaths - 33,174
Recovered - 149,212

Active cases - 519,139

Closed cases - 182,386
Recovered - 149,386 (82%)
Deaths - 33,174 18%

You need to divide deaths by the “closed cases” NOT confirmed cases. Confirmed cases have yet to have an outcome. This is the data they don’t want to share to spook the masses
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It's one thing to question everything . . . It's entirely another thing to reject simple, rational explanations in favor of ever more fantastic and far reaching explanations because you've decided the government cannot be trusted.
Quote:
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Anyone who says the American dream requires a specific pay range doesn't understand the meaning of the American dream

Last edited by calif 15-22; 04-01-2020 at 5:44 PM..
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  #14  
Old 03-29-2020, 8:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by calif 15-22 View Post
Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Total confirmed cases - 701,525
Deaths - 33,174
Recovered - 149,212

Active cases - 519,139

Closed cases - 182,386
Recovered - 149,386 (82%)
Deaths - 33,174 18%

You need to divide deaths by cases that have been closed NOT confirmed cases. This is the data they don’t want to share to spook the masses
The article says U.S. cases/deaths, not worldwide. Italy is over 10% and Spain is over 8%.
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* Satisfying infantile claims to entitlement, indulgence and compensation;
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http://www.wnd.com/2008/11/56494/
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Old 03-29-2020, 8:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by calif 15-22 View Post
Source:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Total confirmed cases - 701,525
Deaths - 33,174
Recovered - 149,212

Active cases - 519,139

Closed cases - 182,386
Recovered - 149,386 (82%)
Deaths - 33,174 18%

You need to divide deaths by the “closed cases” NOT confirmed cases. Confirmed cases have yet to have an outcome. This is the data they don’t want to share to spook the masses
Ben Shapiro had an interesting Guest on a couple of days ago. A Stanford Doctor.

He said the one thing that is missing from the calculation is the TRUE Denominator of the equation and that that includes individuals who test Positive for Antibodies that are well. They were also infected but are not included in the "cases".

The equation is Total number dead divided by Total number infected. When you play games with with what's included in the numbers (just like with gun possession or gun deaths) you end up with ridiculous results.

Right now only obviously sick people are being included and even then it's a WAG (wild *** guess).
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Old 03-29-2020, 8:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Sierra57 View Post
Yes, you are correct. My mistake.

I expect the US death rate to be around 1%-2%. There are many variables that come into play, like age and health of patients, whether it runs rampant in the homeless population and hard drug users, how much treatment improves and how fast that knowledge is passed on, what drugs are made available and/or are newly developed, whether a vaccine can be developed quickly, etc.

We don't know yet how many confirmed cases there will be. It could be 1,000,000 or 20,000,000. We simply don't know. And we will never know how many unconfirmed cases there will be.
I think that is a very accurate assessment, the only way mortality rate climbs above the 1-2% threshold would be in areas where it overwhelms the care infrastucture. There's no way to currently predict if, when and where that might happen because the outbreaks are still too small in scale.
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Old 03-29-2020, 8:59 AM
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here in the valley scattered cases no big clusters few hundred out of 3/4 million
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Old 03-29-2020, 9:11 AM
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And the Dr. also said:

"We're going to have millions of (confirmed coronavirus) cases," he added. "But I just don't think we really need to make a projection when it's such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people."

https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronaviru...ry?id=69859267
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Old 03-29-2020, 9:21 AM
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200,000 worst case
2% worst case
10,000,000 infected
Less then h1n1 infections with 16x the deaths
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:04 AM
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The fog of war guys. Really hard to get accurate and unbiased stats. No matter what, until we know the cases are declining it's going to be hard to figure anything. Of the 2,200 dead in this country as of my post, how many would be dead within a month anyway of whatever they were already sick from? None? Half? We just don't know this kind of stuff, nobody can.

It's a tough balance, let's be careful without bankrupting the country if we can. I think that's the overall goal we share. Except those suffering from TDS, their goal is to rename it orange fever.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:06 AM
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Based on the panic level I expected much higher numbers...we shall see.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:28 AM
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Originally Posted by harbormaster View Post
200,000 worst case
2% worst case
10,000,000 infected
Less then h1n1 infections with 16x the deaths
I suspect it will be less than H1N1 also, this moves faster though but of course drastic actions have been taken. And treatment regimens are developing at a fast pace, global brainstorming.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:29 AM
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I wonder exactly what qualifies a death by COVID-19 and if it is the same in every country and jurisdiction? I guess anyone that tests positive and dies before recovery right?
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:32 AM
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Originally Posted by therealnickb View Post
And the Dr. also said:

"We're going to have millions of (confirmed coronavirus) cases," he added. "But I just don't think we really need to make a projection when it's such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people."

https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronaviru...ry?id=69859267
Yeah, the OP didn't include that part.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:45 AM
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Originally Posted by _TomT_ View Post
The silver lining in all of this is that this thing will take out the idiots of the world.
No. Just like drunks who cause vehicle accidents, I'm wagering the idiots will survive with minimal symptoms.
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Old 03-29-2020, 11:03 AM
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I expected MUCH worse by the way the media spun it.
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Old 03-29-2020, 11:13 AM
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Dr. Falsely has been spreading fear and negating Trump since he first appeared in the news. Sounds like more of the same.
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Old 03-29-2020, 11:40 AM
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Dr. Falsely has been spreading fear and negating Trump since he first appeared in the news. Sounds like more of the same.
Libs worship the ground he walks on. They'll fashion a golden calf in his honor soon enough.
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Old 03-29-2020, 12:11 PM
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Spanish Flu killed 675,000 Americans, when U.S. populace was HALF what it is today.


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Old 03-29-2020, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Doheny View Post
I wonder if this is based on epidemiologist Nial Ferguson's data. You know the guy who told the UK that 500k people would die from this. Then last week he revised his numbers down to 20k on Wednesday, and with that correction he also said that UK hospitals would be able to handle the load without much additional capacity. Then on Friday he made another revision down to just over 5k and said that most who die from this would have died from other conditions by the end of the year anyway.

Essentially he said not of the panic or quarantines are necessary as this is just another seasonal flu event.
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Old 03-29-2020, 12:19 PM
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Population 330,000,000
Death rate of virus.005%
300M*.005=1,650,000 dead
Normal average death rate in the United States, 2017 Statistics, 2,813,503, or 7,708 a day.
People are born, people live, and people die.
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Old 03-29-2020, 12:42 PM
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At this point, without a crystal ball, it's really impossible to know how many could perish. I think the number to watch is the number of hospitalizations.
There are supposedly 8 different strains of this virus going around, so far identified. I don't think they even know if one stain is particularly worse then others in regard to mortality & hospitalizations rate.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...on/5080571002/
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Old 03-29-2020, 1:38 PM
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That guys is a fear mongering swamp creature.
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Old 03-29-2020, 3:48 PM
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Default Dr. Fauci Predicts 100K to 200K U.S. Deaths

If you watched today’s presser, the Doctor stuck by his numbers. In fact, Trump said 100,000 would be “good” compared to the 2 million that may have happened without mitigation.


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Old 03-29-2020, 4:09 PM
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The numbers Dr. Fauci gives may be somewhat true ONLY because the estimates are MOST LIKELY using the error in how the population follows the guidelines given. I will bet dollars to donuts these figures are for worst case scenarios.

It's impossible to adhere the six foot rule in some cases and many of us forget to NOT touch our faces when we touch other surfaces. Coughing, sneezing happens with no consideration to others all the time. Staying home and isolating yourself if you're sick even in your own home would help immensely. But many are ignorant and don't care to educate themselves. That is simply reality.

Speaking of worst case scenarios:

https://youtu.be/uTTN0v2cdC0?t=237
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Old 03-29-2020, 4:34 PM
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If America had masks for everyone and enforced their use in public we wouldn’t have to shut down the country.

One of the larger Hospitals in greater LA area has overflowed one floor and opened another floor just for Covid19 patients. That’s on top of parts of ICU.
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Old 03-29-2020, 10:19 PM
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If America had masks for everyone and enforced their use in public we wouldn’t have to shut down the country.

One of the larger Hospitals in greater LA area has overflowed one floor and opened another floor just for Covid19 patients. That’s on top of parts of ICU.
I really doubt that. We'd still be sitting here for the next month...now if Italy hadn't exploded the way they did...then perhaps but that scared the **** out of the hoi polloi.
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Old 03-30-2020, 12:16 PM
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What's a Dearhs?
When you die from diarrhea.
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Old 03-30-2020, 12:24 PM
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Originally Posted by tsmithson View Post
If America had masks for everyone and enforced their use in public we wouldn’t have to shut down the country.

One of the larger Hospitals in greater LA area has overflowed one floor and opened another floor just for Covid19 patients. That’s on top of parts of ICU.
Time for a dedicated thread?

So you're saying we need 330,000,000 masks and since they only last 8 hours, we need that many a day?

So somehow we need 2,310,000,000 a week if everyone uses just one a day.. Yea, let's find a way to churn out 2.3 Billion masks a week.. China maybe?

And training of course, since wearing them wrong is bad.. and this assumes people won't still touch stuff and transmit other ways.. and we need a ton of sizes..

You're idea is cray cray and impractical.. sorry
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Old 03-30-2020, 12:30 PM
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SAN compnerd SAN compnerd is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsmithson View Post
If America had masks for everyone and enforced their use in public we wouldn’t have to shut down the country.

One of the larger Hospitals in greater LA area has overflowed one floor and opened another floor just for Covid19 patients. That’s on top of parts of ICU.
The kind approved by the CDC or the FDA? You know the kind of approval that's preventing rapid ramp up in manufacturing right now.

If the national stockpile had been maintained/replenished things might be better, but it wasn't after H1N1 used 100 million. Stockpile was supposed to have 1.7 billion. When this started there was about 13 million.


One big problem is we don't really make them here, they are all made in China, and China has created a global shortage of the machines needed to make them with their demand.

So even if the CDC and FDA red tape were not an issue, the fact that most of these are made in China would still be, and the machines to ramp up production just aren't available.
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Originally Posted by SAN compnerd View Post
When the middle east descends into complete chaos in 2-3 years due in part to the actions of this administration I'll necro post about how clueless I was.
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