Rupp v Becerra (AWCA): 6-28-22 9th Vacates and remands to TC/DC

[Bhobbs]

Originally Posted by readinglist

Because litigation takes so long to get a final decision, it makes sense to keep cases in the pipeline against the day that there is a more favorable population of judges.

It doesn’t make sense because all you do is build unfavorable precedence against our side. The best we can hope for is a favorable 9th circuit ruling by Benitez, which will be overturned en banc and then denied by SCOTUS. Our lawsuits do as much for the anti side as their laws.

[DB>]

There have been some shifts in the 9th, and all it takes is ONE "win" to start to turn the tide. Not that it looks terribly promising, but one can hope.

[johnireland]

Hope for the best...and seriously prepare for the worst. As in THE WORST.

[aBrowningfan]

Originally Posted by johnireland

Hope for the best...and seriously prepare for the worst. As in THE WORST.

How is a loss THE WORST? For those who have registered AWs, they can still lawfully possess their registered AWs. Personally, I would like to add to my collection of AWs, but a loss is not going to force me to surrender my registered AWs. Now THAT (forced surrender of registered AWs) would be THE WORST.

[Steve1968LS2]

Just got a note that the next "thing" in this case is October 8th:

The Court has set our date for oral argument on the appeal case for October 8, 2020 at 1 p.m. and it will be by remote means. We do not have all the information regarding the remote appearance for oral argument yet, but we will let you know if you would be able to watch online.

[OverturnWickard]

Assuming there are at least 2 active judges on the panel, there is approximately a 16% chance we draw a favorable panel. Duncan really was something of a miracle.

[CandG]

Originally Posted by OverturnWickard

Assuming there are at least 2 active judges on the panel, there is approximately a 16% chance we draw a favorable panel. Duncan really was something of a miracle.

Where do you get 16% from?

Considering the current 16:13 Democrat majority, the odds of getting any one of the 4 different possible panel compositions are:
3D:0R - 15.33%
2D:1R - 42.69%
1D:2R - 34.15%
0D:3R - 7.83%

So the odds of a Republican majority are (7.83% + 34.15%) = 41.98%

With those odds, I'm not sure if I'd call it "something of a miracle." Was it less likely than getting a Democrat majority panel? Sure, but not by much.

And the more cases that go to the 9th, the higher the chances of getting a favorable panel in at least one of them:
1 case: 42% odds
2 cases: 67% odds
3 cases: 81% odds
4 cases: 89% odds

[FirearmFino]

Before: HURWITZ, BRESS, and BUMATAY, Circuit Judges

[abinsinia]

Andrew D. Hurwitz,73,Obama
Daniel Aaron Bress,41,Trump
Patrick J. Bumatay,42,Trump

It's not a bad pick.

[CandG]

Originally Posted by abinsinia

Andrew D. Hurwitz,73,Obama
Daniel Aaron Bress,41,Trump
Patrick J. Bumatay,42,Trump

It's not a bad pick.

Woohoo! Things are looking up this year

[CCWFacts]

Originally Posted by abinsinia

Andrew D. Hurwitz,73,Obama
Daniel Aaron Bress,41,Trump
Patrick J. Bumatay,42,Trump

It's not a bad pick.

Wow that's amazing. And Trump judges seem to be better than Bush judges for example.

And notice, there are quite a few old or very old Democratic judges in the 9th. If Trump has a second term he's going to replace several more and the 9th will then lean conservative and we will win cases.

[speedrrracer]

Originally Posted by CCWFacts

Wow that's amazing. And Trump judges seem to be better than Bush judges for example.

And notice, there are quite a few old or very old Democratic judges in the 9th. If Trump has a second term he's going to replace several more and the 9th will then lean conservative and we will win cases.

Bush judges are very iffy. Back then, it wasn't a complete war like it is now. Bush would sometimes appoint a RINO judge just to get some cooperation with a Senator in a democrat state like NY or CA on a piece of legislation. Republicans weren't paying attention back then, and it shows.

There are enough older judges that if we get really lucky, and they pretty much all retire, we could hold a small majority, but in "name" only for the reason mentioned above.

Even among the younger judges and the Trump appointees there are issues:
Trump was forced to appoint Bennett because it was Hawaii's turn, and Bennett is a total anti, so when you look at who appointed which judge, keep in mind that doesn't tell nearly enough of the story. Even if we're lucky enough to get another Trump term with plenty of D-appointee retirements, no single President can fix all of the failures of decades of scumbag democrats and asleep-at-the-wheel, too-busy-stuffing-their-own-pockets republicans.

[Uncivil Engineer]

Originally Posted by CCWFacts

Wow that's amazing. And Trump judges seem to be better than Bush judges for example.



And notice, there are quite a few old or very old Democratic judges in the 9th. If Trump has a second term he's going to replace several more and the 9th will then lean conservative and we will win cases.

So what are the chances we get strict scrutiny here. Making Duncan an even higher him to climb.

[CalAlumnus]

Do we know who will be presenting for our side on 10/8 yet? Not sure if that’s usually announced ahead of time.

[abinsinia]

It covers these sections of penal code,

30510(a) (list of assault weapons by make and model);
30515(a)(1)(A-C) and (E-F) (defining the additional features which, in combination with a non-fixed magazine, render a weapon an “assault weapon”);
30515(a)(3) (defining as an assault rifle any semiautomatic, centerfire rifle that has an overall length of less than 30 inches);
30520 (“duties of Attorney General,” allowing the California Attorney General to designate and/or describe weapons);
30600 (prohibiting the manufacture, distribution, transportation, importation, sale, gift, or loan of assault weapons);
30605 (penalties for possession);
30925 (required actions for those bringing an assault weapon into the state);
30945 (conditions for possessing a registered assault weapon)

Looks like there is overlap with Miller.

[ar15barrels]

Originally Posted by OverturnWickard

Assuming there are at least 2 active judges on the panel, there is approximately a 16% chance we draw a favorable panel.

Buy lottery tickets...

Originally Posted by abinsinia

Andrew D. Hurwitz,73,Obama
Daniel Aaron Bress,41,Trump
Patrick J. Bumatay,42,Trump

[CandG]

Originally Posted by ar15barrels

Buy lottery tickets...

It's almost like we actually had a 42% chance

[bv141]

Originally Posted by abinsinia

It covers these sections of penal code,

30510(a) (list of assault weapons by make and model);
30515(a)(1)(A-C) and (E-F) (defining the additional features which, in combination with a non-fixed magazine, render a weapon an “assault weapon”);
30515(a)(3) (defining as an assault rifle any semiautomatic, centerfire rifle that has an overall length of less than 30 inches);
30520 (“duties of Attorney General,” allowing the California Attorney General to designate and/or describe weapons);
30600 (prohibiting the manufacture, distribution, transportation, importation, sale, gift, or loan of assault weapons);
30605 (penalties for possession);
30925 (required actions for those bringing an assault weapon into the state);
30945 (conditions for possessing a registered assault weapon)

Looks like there is overlap with Miller.

Miller and Rupp difference discussed here, from yesterday:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZEaVfHLkog

[Steve1968LS2]

One guy's take on the case:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZEa...tsjzCZ5xzIW1Zk

[CandG]

Originally Posted by Steve1968LS2

One guy's take on the case:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZEa...tsjzCZ5xzIW1Zk

Some day your name might be as commonplace in the 2A world as Heller

[Steve1968LS2]

Originally Posted by CandG

Some day your name might be as commonplace in the 2A world as Heller

lol... there are a ton of cases out there.. I'm happy when we win any of them. And I'm nothing special, there are a half dozen on the case as plaintiffs.. I'm just the pithy name they chose for the official title.

But I do consider it an honor. I feel good about October 8 even though a win will just send it back to start over again. It's such a long process.

[BryMan92]

Have there been any other AWB cases regarding features in CA or is this effectively the first one?

[abinsinia]

Originally Posted by BryMan92

Have there been any other AWB cases regarding features in CA or is this effectively the first one?

Yeah, there is another one called Miller and Benitez (from magazine case) is hearing it.

[Steve1968LS2]

Here's info for the hearing on the 8th

The oral argument will be available to watch on the Court’s YouTube channel. The link to watch will be posted by the Court on the day of the oral argument, Thursday October 5th.

Here is a link to the page where the oral argument video will be posted: https://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/media/l..._arguments.php

Our oral argument will be the one in Pasadena Courtroom 3 at 1 PM.

[CandG]

Originally Posted by Steve1968LS2

Here's info for the hearing on the 8th

Thanks for keeping us updated on this!

Yeehaw, let's do this! I'll be watching this hearing for sure.

[abinsinia]

I don't see any links for the live stream on the youtube channel.

[ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ]

The livestream of the arguments should be at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr7ghgMTSao

Embedded below.

[BryMan92]

About two minutes! Can't wait to here how AR15 "are the like" and intermediate scrutiny should apply.

[abinsinia]

Notice of Oral Argument on Thursday, October 8, 2020 - 09:00 A.M. - Courtroom 3 - Scheduled Location: Pasadena CA.

9am ? So it already over , what happened?

[ajb78]

Originally Posted by abinsinia

1pm or 1:30pm ?

It is the last one listed @ 1300 10/08/20
https://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/calenda...3-16&year=2020

2020-10-08 1:00 pm Courtroom 3, Richard H. Chambers US Court of Appeals, Pasadena
Before: HURWITZ, BRESS, and BUMATAY, Circuit Judges
Case No. Title Nature Origin Time / Side
19-71251 Johnny Garcia-Lopez v. William Barr - A citizen of Guatemala petitions for review of the Board of Immigration Appeals' denial of withholding of removal and protection under the Convention Against Torture. Immigration BIA Subm.
19-72089 Nelson Gonsalez Padilla v. William Barr - A citizen of Honduras and Guatemala petitions for review of the Board of Immigration Appeals' denial of asylum, withholding of removal, and protection under the Convention Against Torture. Immigration BIA Subm.
19-71524 Jorge Escamilla v. William Barr - A citizen of El Salvador challenges an agency decision denying NACARA special rule cancellation of removal and concluding that, as an arriving alien, he was not eligible to apply for adjustment of status. Immigration BIA Subm.
19-50050 USA v. Antoine Gerald - Appeal from conviction and sentence for attempted murder and assault on a federal employee with a deadly or dangerous weapon resulting in the infliction of bodily injury. [2:18-cr-00313-DMG-1] Criminal C. CA 15 min
19-55169 Quy Truong v. Garden Square Parking ***'n - An appeal from the district court's summary judgment and award of attorneys' fees in an action under the Americans with Disabilities Act. [8:17-cv-01758-AG-JDE] Civil C. CA 10 min
19-56004 Steven Rupp v. Xavier Becerra - An appeal from the district court's summary judgment for defendant in an action brought pursuant to 42 U.S.C. 1983 challenging provisions of California's Assault Weapon Control Act. [8:17-cv-00746-JLS-JDE] Civil C. CA 20 min

[Bill_in_SD]

They are discussing Truong at this moment. Not sure what the 10 minutes in the previous post indicates.

[BryMan92]

I assumed 1:00 PM was the start of Rupp; turns out its the start of the orals of various cases. My bad.

[Bill_in_SD]

Starting NOW

[DolphinFan]

Hurwitz wants to hear "In Common Use"

[DolphinFan]

Hurwitz, talking about scrutiny, Intermediate Scrutiny.

[CandG]

Having to watch this with (poorly) auto-generated closed captioning, but so far it seems like Sean's doing a great job.

[tenemae]

The judge appears to be leading the lawyer on what to say to win the case, and the lawyer doesn't seem to be taking the hint. This is frustrating

[DolphinFan]

Originally Posted by CandG

Having to watch this with (poorly) auto-generated closed captioning, but so far it seems like Sean's doing a great job.

Sean is doing great. It's Judge Hurwitz that is pushing the false narrative.

[BryMan92]

"Should the court review these features one at a time?"

YES!

[DolphinFan]

YES the 2A gives a citizen the CHOICE to chose their legal weapon of choice.