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Coronavirus/COVID19 Temp Forum This is a temporary forum for discussion, debate, sharing and helping each other during and in relation to the Coronavirus/COVID19

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  #1  
Old 05-07-2021, 10:38 AM
Scota4570 Scota4570 is offline
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Default Epidemic Threshold

Please enlighten me.
For Covid (or Flu) to be an epidemic the historical number of deaths is between 6% and 8%.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ity-report.png
Today the deaths for Covid (and all other flu) is
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...ilytrendscases
650 deaths per week, x 52 weeks is 33,800/ year
2.8 million deaths per year
That is 1.2% of deaths from covid and other flu.
The last time checked, 1.2% is less than 6%.
1.2% is also very low by historical standards.
It seems to me there is no epidemic or pandemic. It is over.

Last edited by Scota4570; 05-07-2021 at 8:14 PM..
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Old 05-07-2021, 10:40 AM
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OP clearly you are racist and homophobic.

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Old 05-07-2021, 11:16 AM
Sailormilan2 Sailormilan2 is offline
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Current estimates are that worldwide COVID-19 deaths are at least double the so-called “official” numbers.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/05/06/...ial-estimates/
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Old 05-07-2021, 11:48 AM
Scota4570 Scota4570 is offline
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I am only considering USA data, It is CDC data.

Today it would have to be 5X the official numbers to be an epidemic again.

Or maybe my math and logic is flawed?................

Last edited by Scota4570; 05-07-2021 at 2:44 PM..
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Old 05-07-2021, 12:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sailormilan2 View Post
Current estimates are that worldwide COVID-19 deaths are at least double the so-called “official” numbers.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/05/06/...ial-estimates/
So 2.4% then? I guess that is a little closer to 6%...

There must be a lot of car crashes and cancer deaths in other countries....
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Old 05-07-2021, 1:10 PM
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I guess it's not even "just the flu" it is much milder. Just the sniffles?
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Old 05-07-2021, 8:16 PM
Scota4570 Scota4570 is offline
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I am surprised I am not getting shouted down or argued with. Does that mean I stumbled onto something?
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Old 05-07-2021, 8:29 PM
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Even the covidians are starting to realize they are on the wrong side of history. I think we will be seeing some real death tolls this year though, due to the secret serum.
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Old 05-07-2021, 9:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sailormilan2 View Post
Current estimates are that worldwide COVID-19 deaths are at least double the so-called “official” numbers.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/05/06/...ial-estimates/
Statnews is liberal source-do you believe statments from them? I do not.
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Old 05-07-2021, 9:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scota4570 View Post
I am surprised I am not getting shouted down or argued with. Does that mean I stumbled onto something?


Other than maybe jinxing our luck why would anyone shout you down?

Flu doesn't have the ground glass symptom and whatever I might be deeply

distrustful of it's inconceivable that so many would be allowed to die to

forward a myth.

The truth won't come any time soon and it won't come at all unless it's insisted on.

The label "pandemic" is useful to rally the troops,

however well we come to learn that went "over" is a long way off.
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  #11  
Old 05-08-2021, 5:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sailormilan2 View Post
Current estimates are that worldwide COVID-19 deaths are at least double the so-called “official” numbers.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/05/06/...ial-estimates/
The actual excess deaths in the US for 2020 was ~300,000 with 170,000 from the 15-54 age demographic which didn't get hit by Covid.

Your link says they expect (ie an estimate) that there will be 949,000 excess deaths from Covid by Sept of 2021. There is no way their estimates can be supported by the data of 2020 and the reality of what is going on now.

Follow the data as Scota has done and quit relying on articles written by people with an agenda.

Last edited by toro1; 05-08-2021 at 5:53 AM..
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Old 05-08-2021, 7:45 AM
Scota4570 Scota4570 is offline
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It was pointed out to me that the number of deaths on the CDC chart is daily deaths averaged by week. So, my math is of by a factor of 7. My bad. It seemed too good to be true.
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Old 05-08-2021, 8:23 AM
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We should still remember that there were only like 8 flu deaths in 2020

That's pretty weird!
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Old 05-08-2021, 8:25 AM
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Old 05-08-2021, 10:10 AM
Scota4570 Scota4570 is offline
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Link please on the CDC change cited in the previous post?

That would put covid deaths at about 150K per calendar year. That is a number I have believed to be more plausible. CDC now claims 577K. Sounds like bunk. Keep in mind they have not stopped counting since it started. Past convention was to stop October 1st and start at zero again. Never have they ever combined multiple flu seasons. Playing games with the numbers negatively impacts their credibility to me.

Last edited by Scota4570; 05-08-2021 at 10:22 AM..
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