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National 2nd Amend. Political & Legal Discussion Discuss national gun rights and 2A related political topics here. All advice given is NOT legal counsel.

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  #401  
Old 05-22-2020, 10:25 AM
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No it is not. Go read it.
The section on Gates and Doors.

Go read it.

=8-|
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  #402  
Old 05-22-2020, 11:04 AM
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It takes 90%? So you also can’t count? It is also squarely a part of scrutiny argument - describing levels of infringement to balance.
I know you guys wish to live in a different world, but in this world ALL courts currently apply scrutiny to 2A cases. It was NOT foreclosed by Heller. Judge Benitez knows that as evident in his writing.
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  #403  
Old 05-22-2020, 11:11 AM
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All moved to the 28 May conference.
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  #404  
Old 05-22-2020, 11:22 AM
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All moved to the 28 May conference.
I smell mass denials and dissents incoming.
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  #405  
Old 05-22-2020, 11:26 AM
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This waiting and moving is unpleasant
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  #406  
Old 05-22-2020, 11:29 AM
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I smell mass denials and dissents incoming.
Me too.
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  #407  
Old 05-22-2020, 11:46 AM
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Maybe they are waiting till the last minute with a pro 2A opinion/order? Nah! No way!

Will find out soon if China has control over them too.
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  #408  
Old 05-22-2020, 12:47 PM
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The data around re-listings and likelihood of acceptance has already been hashed out on previous case threads. The short answer being, most (all?) gun cases that have been taken by SCOTUS were relisted multiple times first.

So nothing has yet happened that would give any indication of a mass denial.

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I smell mass denials and dissents incoming.
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  #409  
Old 05-22-2020, 1:13 PM
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Maybe they are waiting till the last minute with a pro 2A opinion/order? Nah! No way!
We are getting so close to the end of the June term.

In my speculative opinion, I think they are actively debating these each week and can't come to a resolution or are continuing to work on the opinion/dissent.

I don't see any other reason to keep relisting them, why go to the trouble to relist, if they could just let them sit as a hold, as they have done for the better part of last year.
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  #410  
Old 05-22-2020, 1:43 PM
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I thought it was common idea that they were holding them all pending completion of NYSRPA, which they had not planned on mooting when they granted cert. Immediately after NYSRPA was mooted, they put the held cases back on. Does it seem obvious they are shopping for a replacement for NYSRPA? As I already said above, multiple re-listings is common.

If past is prologue, they will pick one for cert, and some or all of the 9 they don't take will remain held, pending the outcome of whichever case they do.

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We are getting so close to the end of the June term.

In my speculative opinion, I think they are actively debating these each week and can't come to a resolution or are continuing to work on the opinion/dissent.

I don't see any other reason to keep relisting them, why go to the trouble to relist, if they could just let them sit as a hold, as they have done for the better part of last year.
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  #411  
Old 05-22-2020, 1:43 PM
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2 things about 'historical' cert grant/denial timings:

IIRC, 3+ re-lists begins the point of diminishing returns on an eventual cert grant (i.e. waiting for a written dissent).

We used to watch the re-lists every week and then NYSRPA was granted and Pena (et al) disappeared from conference schedule. We know now that they were tabled pending that outcome, and now there're back.
Anything we thought we knew compared to 'typical' conference/orders and cert grants/denials went out the window with the granting of NYSRPA. It is confirmed, unequivocally, that the 2A is treated drastically different from all other cases (procedurally and constitutionally) that come before the court.

Thomas has dissented in a cert denial (Silvester, Peruta)
Gorsuch has dissented in a cert denial (Peruta)
Alito's dissent in NYSRPA ruling
Kavanagh - probably pro 2A (we can tea-read from Heller II and his partial joining in dissent for NYSRPA)

Roberts - Heller I is really all we have to go on, and that was many years ago. (McDonald being 2A + 14A, and Caetano...)

I fear for our rights, gentleman. Statist gonna' State.

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Originally Posted by ShadowGuy View Post
We are getting so close to the end of the June term.

In my speculative opinion, I think they are actively debating these each week and can't come to a resolution or are continuing to work on the opinion/dissent.

I don't see any other reason to keep relisting them, why go to the trouble to relist, if they could just let them sit as a hold, as they have done for the better part of last year.
I know one reason - denial + dissent(s).

I don't want it to be true, and I hope I am wrong, but i'll be darned if i'm not expecting denials at this point.
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  #412  
Old 05-22-2020, 1:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mit31 View Post
The data around re-listings and likelihood of acceptance has already been hashed out on previous case threads. The short answer being, most (all?) gun cases that have been taken by SCOTUS were relisted multiple times first.

So nothing has yet happened that would give any indication of a mass denial.
I remember those discussions, and if I remember correctly, chances of SCOTUS granting cert starts declining sharply after what, 3 or 4 relists? Each of these cases has four or five relists already.
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  #413  
Old 05-22-2020, 2:31 PM
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Statist gonna' State.
Nice. Is that Taylor Swift?

We might have a chance enrolling the youth if we can get her on our side.
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  #414  
Old 05-22-2020, 2:35 PM
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They are too busy for 2A cases - The United States Supreme Court has denied Idaho’s application to stop a transgender inmate’s reassignment surgery.
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  #415  
Old 05-22-2020, 3:00 PM
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I remember those discussions, and if I remember correctly, chances of SCOTUS granting cert starts declining sharply after what, 3 or 4 relists? Each of these cases has four or five relists already.
Somewhat unique situation with them treated in bulk. A lot for clerks to double check.
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  #416  
Old 05-22-2020, 3:00 PM
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All moved to the 28 May conference.

How do you know that?
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  #417  
Old 05-22-2020, 3:06 PM
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How do you know that?
I guessed. Go to the SCOTUS Blog website.
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  #418  
Old 05-22-2020, 3:32 PM
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Originally Posted by rogerv723 View Post
How do you know that?

https://www.scotusblog.com/case-file...were-watching/
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  #419  
Old 05-22-2020, 3:34 PM
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Hmm.

Well, look on the bright side: we don't have to wait until next Tues to know what their next move is.

I guess we should check the dockets next Friday to see if any update/s after the Conference next Thurs.

Only "good" options, I guess, are scheduling some oral/s next fall or, my hope, per curiam decision/s without orals (like Caetano) and a bunch of GVRs in June.

Or they could all be denied and things get "interesting" (as in the Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times").

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  #420  
Old 05-22-2020, 3:52 PM
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Hmm.

Well, look on the bright side: we don't have to wait until next Tues to know what their next move is.

I guess we should check the dockets next Friday to see if any update/s after the Conference next Thurs.

Only "good" options, I guess, are scheduling some oral/s next fall or, my hope, per curiam decision/s without orals (like Caetano) and a bunch of GVRs in June.

Or they could all be denied and things get "interesting" (as in the Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times").

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  #421  
Old 05-22-2020, 3:56 PM
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Gov. Newsome - “Opportunities multiply as they are seized (Bill of Rights).” – Sun Tzu

Ok I digressed.
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  #422  
Old 05-22-2020, 5:24 PM
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With regard to AWB lawsuits, I'm wondering if they'll remand any and say, "Go read Heller, dummies."

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  #423  
Old 05-22-2020, 6:21 PM
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With regard to AWB lawsuits, I'm wondering if they'll remand any and say, "Go read Heller, dummies."

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The dummies will say we did, what cha gonna do about it.....10 years later.

SCOTUS must be very specific. None of this read between the lines BS.
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  #424  
Old 05-22-2020, 6:43 PM
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The dummies will say we did, what cha gonna do about it.....10 years later.



SCOTUS must be very specific. None of this read between the lines BS.
I agree with you completely. It's already been done with Wilson v Cook County. Now it's in front of SCOTUS for the 4th time.

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  #425  
Old 05-22-2020, 7:05 PM
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I agree with you completely. It's already been done with Wilson v Cook County. Now it's in front of SCOTUS for the 4th time.

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Hope I am wrong..
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  #426  
Old 05-22-2020, 8:03 PM
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The fact the cases were already relisted without even waiting for Tuesday is not a good sign, not at all
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  #427  
Old 05-22-2020, 10:31 PM
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Well. At least they are working on it. What we get, is what we get.
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  #428  
Old 05-23-2020, 10:31 PM
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They may have just relisted them because Monday is a holiday.
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  #429  
Old 05-24-2020, 3:48 AM
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They may have just relisted them because Monday is a holiday.
That's likely the reason but it means yet another conference where no action is taken on any cases. The longer no action is taken the more likely were looking at mass cert denials. Given Roberts and Kavanaugh, my hopes are not high we'll have an answer on the second until Ginsburg or Breyer shuffles off this mortal coil
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  #430  
Old 05-24-2020, 8:10 AM
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That's likely the reason but it means yet another conference where no action is taken on any cases. The longer no action is taken the more likely were looking at mass cert denials. Given Roberts and Kavanaugh, my hopes are not high we'll have an answer on the second until Ginsburg or Breyer shuffles off this mortal coil
I don't think so .. These cases were all held for a long time.

Take the Mance case,
https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/...ic/18-663.html

If you look at the log it was distributed for conference 04/08/2019 , then a whole year passed before it was distributed again. It was in the held state that whole time with the other cases.

If they didn't want to take these case right away, they would just put them on hold again.
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  #431  
Old 05-24-2020, 1:52 PM
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Maybe they are waiting till the last minute with a pro 2A opinion/order? Nah! No way!

Will find out soon if China has control over them too.
And maybe they’re setting precedent on his defending the Bill of Rights by having his press secretary declare that houses of worship must open under the 1st amendment and “supports the exercising of that right in the fullest and most robust way”
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  #432  
Old 05-24-2020, 3:25 PM
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Originally Posted by mit31 View Post
I thought it was common idea that they were holding them all pending completion of NYSRPA, which they had not planned on mooting when they granted cert. Immediately after NYSRPA was mooted, they put the held cases back on. Does it seem obvious they are shopping for a replacement for NYSRPA? As I already said above, multiple re-listings is common.

If past is prologue, they will pick one for cert, and some or all of the 9 they don't take will remain held, pending the outcome of whichever case they do.
IMO yes. I interpret the cases being NOT distributed for conference as being put aside and not discussed further. So at the moment all are being discussed in some form or another.
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  #433  
Old 05-24-2020, 3:28 PM
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The fact the cases were already relisted without even waiting for Tuesday is not a good sign, not at all
Other non 2A cases were also relisted and announced Friday. I'm not seeing why this is a bad sign?
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  #434  
Old 05-24-2020, 8:06 PM
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Other non 2A cases were also relisted and announced Friday. I'm not seeing why this is a bad sign?
Well we're all amateurs at reading tea leaves, but some of us are more amateur than others.

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  #435  
Old 05-24-2020, 8:32 PM
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Well we're all amateurs at reading tea leaves, but some of us are more amateur than others.



Hey! I resemble that statement.

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  #436  
Old 05-25-2020, 8:01 AM
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The fact the cases were already relisted without even waiting for Tuesday is not a good sign, not at all
I don't think I'd read too much into it. Tues is next Orders for other courts or parties. This relisting is just SCOTUS updating their own calendar.
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  #437  
Old 05-25-2020, 1:32 PM
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All moved to the 28 May conference.
WTF.
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  #438  
Old 05-25-2020, 5:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by abinsinia View Post
I don't think so .. These cases were all held for a long time.

Take the Mance case,
https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/...ic/18-663.html

If you look at the log it was distributed for conference 04/08/2019 , then a whole year passed before it was distributed again. It was in the held state that whole time with the other cases.

If they didn't want to take these case right away, they would just put them on hold again.
People said they were hanging on to NYC so long for a reason. Look how that turned out.

All it means is SCOTUS doesn’t consider the 2A a priority. They don’t care that lower courts are ignoring Heller and McDonald. The 2A isn’t even a secondary right. It’s tertiary at best.
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  #439  
Old 05-25-2020, 9:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by abinsinia View Post
I don't think so .. These cases were all held for a long time.



Take the Mance case,

https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/...ic/18-663.html



If you look at the log it was distributed for conference 04/08/2019 , then a whole year passed before it was distributed again. It was in the held state that whole time with the other cases.



If they didn't want to take these case right away, they would just put them on hold again.
When I spoke to Culp (as in Culp v Raoul) back on 4/30 he said he thinks SCOTUS will take Mance to avoid too much controversy.

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  #440  
Old 05-25-2020, 10:31 PM
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What use would it be to us? It would not invalidate the roster.
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