Rifles account for only XXX deaths per year - is this accurate?

[asm777]

I've seen numerous arguments from conservatives that point out that "assault weapon" bans and bans on semi-automatic rifles won't do much to curb gun violence in the US because rifles only account for 250-400 deaths per year. (I'm even guilty of using the "there are more people killed by hands/fists than by rifles per year" argument)

We point to the FBI stats that shows 258-374 annual deaths from 2012 to 2016... but how are we accounting for the "Firearms, type not stated" line that seems to increase every year from 2012 to 2016?

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-4.xls
http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/attachment.php?attachmentid=685879&stc=1&d=1519776838

I found a post from 2013 by Eugene Volokh (http://volokh.com/2013/01/03/are-blunt-objects-more-common-homicide-weapons-than-rifles/):
In any event, I don’t think one can say with any confidence that rifle murders are less common than blunt object murders. I’m generally skeptical of gun control proposals, whether aimed at handguns or rifles, because I think most such proposals will either have little effect on anyone, or would tend to interfere with self-defense much more than they would interfere with crime. But until we have a better sense of what the “firearms, type not stated” category means, I wouldn’t assume much about rifle murder counts.

And there's also "Other weapons or weapons not stated" (which could also potentially involve rifles) that are used for just under 1,000 murders...

Just wondering whether other CGers have noticed this issue with our use of FBI statistics to support our position and how you reconcile the unknown factor...

[Citadelgrad87]

Last time i checked, “assault weapons/assault rifles” were used in 4% of crimes.

[floogy]

The “type not stated” is just that. The police report either didn’t note the type, or they legitimately didn’t know. However, one could assume those “unknown” firearm types would roughly be a similar percentage to known types of firearms.

It would be foolish to assume that a huge percentage of of those unknown firearms were rifles. Also this Eugene fellow, whoever he is, seems naive to further assume that blunt objects are used less than rifles. Murders are often totally unplanned and people will use whatever is at hand. Blunt objects are almost always available.

This is all just a distraction from the real issue anyway. The type of weapon used is irrelevant. Violence has no easy solution so politicians parrot the same BS without needing to address things like poverty, education, drugs, gangs, mental health, and the list goes on.


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[Phalanx20mm]

If you remove 5 Blue counties from the data the number is effectively zero.

The problem isn't guns, the problem is democrats.

[asm777]

Last time i checked, “assault weapons/assault rifles” were used in 4% of crimes.

Ha! That seems high... if less than 2.5% of all murders were by all "rifles" last year! :D

The “type not stated” is just that. The police report either didn’t note the type, or they legitimately didn’t know. However, one could assume those “unknown” firearm types would roughly be a similar percentage to known types of firearms.

It would be foolish to assume that a huge percentage of of those unknown firearms were rifles. Also this Eugene fellow, whoever he is, seems naive to further assume that blunt objects are used less than rifles. Murders are often totally unplanned and people will use whatever is at hand. Blunt objects are almost always available.

This is all just a distraction from the real issue anyway. The type of weapon used is irrelevant. Violence has no easy solution so politicians parrot the same BS without needing to address things like poverty, education, drugs, gangs, mental health, and the list goes on.


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Yeah, this Eugene fellow (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Volokh) spouts some nonsense huh! :cool2:
Volokh's article about "The Commonplace Second Amendment", was cited by Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia's majority opinion in the landmark Second Amendment case of District of Columbia v. Heller

Anyway, I'm with you that all this Democrat nonsense detracts from the real "root causes" of violence in our morally bankrupt society...

I just like to be accurate and realized I was probably spouting nonsense (rifles only account for 250-400 murders per year) when I "discuss" with liberals that their proposed solutions (AW bans, etc.) won't solve anything... Then again, it's not like liberals ever respond to reason, logic, and facts anyway so does it really matter?

[dreyna14]

The best assumption one can make is that the breakup is basically the same percentages of the known firearm types. What I am interested in is why that number is steadily increasing each year.

[jdl6mm]

Homicide rate going up? Yes it is. So is that just the number of homicides committed with an unknown type of firearm not solved?

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[smittty]

Just wondering whether other CGers have noticed this issue with our use of FBI statistics to support our position and how you reconcile the unknown factor...

Based on that chart for 2016 the total number of firearms homicides is 11,004 for a total US population of 323.1 million, which works out to 0.0034%.

To put that into perspective, the percentage of deaths caused by medical mistakes is 9.4%. Yes, you read that right, 9.4%.
****A US resident is 2,764 times more likely to die from going to the doctor than from a firearm.****The most expensive "service" you will ever pay for has a high probability of killing you!

Here's the reference source,
https://hub.jhu.edu/2016/05/03/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death/

[Oceanbob]

Read my post below

[Oceanbob]

Read my post below

This is really a non issue that libs focus on.

In today’s world more people die before Noon on any single day than
All rifles kill in one year; OxyContin and other opioids.

I blame lazy journalists and the liberal mindset.

Be well
Bob

[floogy]

Ha! That seems high... if less than 2.5% of all murders were by all "rifles" last year! :D



Yeah, this Eugene fellow (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Volokh) spouts some nonsense huh! :cool2:


Anyway, I'm with you that all this Democrat nonsense detracts from the real "root causes" of violence in our morally bankrupt society...

I just like to be accurate and realized I was probably spouting nonsense (rifles only account for 250-400 murders per year) when I "discuss" with liberals that their proposed solutions (AW bans, etc.) won't solve anything... Then again, it's not like liberals ever respond to reason, logic, and facts anyway so does it really matter?


I had never heard of him. He certainly has some credentials. It’s not nonsense, he may have some reason to say that. But still, I think it’s reasonable to assume that those unknown firearms are probably split pretty close to the numbers of known types. I see no reason to assume that the unknown types are primarily rifles.

But again, this country has bigger issues that no one wants to address. So they distract the useful idiots with gun control and other hot button topics. If they keep the left and right at each other’s throats, they can return to their real task of robbing us all blind while we tear our own country apart.


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[readysetgo]

Based on those stats, it's not wrong to say blunt objects have contributed to more murder than rifles. That's literally what it shows.

Of course he could be correct that the unknown/type not stated might push that rifle number over blunt objects. But we can't know because... "type not stated." :shrug:

Either way, it would still be very close. As floogy points out, the logical assumption would be that the "type not stated" would be in very close proportion to the other stats.

Using the 2013 numbers. "Rifle" (348) was only 3.8 percent of "Total Firearms" (9,146). 3.8% of "Firearms, type not stated" is only seventy (70).

348+70=418, which is still less than "Blunt objects (clubs, hammers, etc.)" alone (611)

Also this Eugene fellow, whoever he is, seems naive to further assume that blunt objects are used less than rifles.

I had never heard of him.
Doh! :facepalm: Volokh is a wizard.

[floogy]

Doh! :facepalm: Volokh is wizard.

I'll try to do better in the future. Now that I think about it, I've probably read at least something he's written.

[aklon]

This is really a non issue that libs focus on.

In today’s world more people die before Noon on any single day than
All rifles kill in one year; OxyContin and other opioids.

I blame lazy journalists and the liberal mindset.


I read another stat today that says 2,000 people a year die from constipation.

Maybe we can save a few lives by showing constipated liberals pictures and videos of AR-15s in action: that'll make 'em s**t.

[asm777]

So, after some more thought, I've reconciled the "unknown factor" issues for myself.

Given that all statistics and data are only as good as the inputs (that old saying "garbage in, garbage out"), the argument that rifles account for less deaths than each of these other categories is still good as long as it's framed as a comparison of reported data. So:

According to FBI crime stats, more people are **reportedly** killed by hands/feet than by rifles each year!

or

According to FBI crime stats, more people are **reportedly** killed by knives/sharp objects than by rifles each year!

or

According to FBI crime stats, more people are **reportedly** killed by hammers/blunt objects than by rifles each year!



No longer arguing about actual murder numbers by tool... just what's reported. That takes care of not only the "Firearms, type not stated" but also "Other weapons or weapons not stated" since we're just focusing on just reported murders specifically by rifles and reported murders specifically by each other reported category. :thumbsup::thumbsup:

Yay! Now I can get back to effectively arguing with my flaming liberal friends! :banghead::banghead:

[Carcassonne]

If a bullet passes through a body and the weapon isn't recovered, they can't specify what type of weapon killed a person.

Most deaths from firearms is either because of suicide or criminal activity.



.