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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #1  
Old 03-12-2014, 8:59 AM
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Default Likelihood of a Solar EMP scenario decreasing? (OP) Or increasing? (post #5)

I saw this in another thread and thought it was worth a thread of it's own.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LMT4ME View Post
The Carrington Event (a massive sold corona) occurred in 1859. It destroyed telegraph machines and wires and even the trans Atlantic underwater cable. Remember back then telegraph machines were the state of the art communication devices. Think about what might happen today. Scientist estimate this happens every 100 years or so. In fact we dodged a bullet this past August when one of similar magnitude missed us by 2 weeks. So if the last happened in 1859 odds are high >50% one will happen by 2059. Multiply the probability by the potential impact (no power for years) and that's what I'd be prepping for.
The Wikipedia link for the Carrington Event is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

A direct hit from a large CME would likely cause all sorts of havoc. But the latest science news, ignored by the climate change chorus, is that the sun is becoming unusually quiet and that a new "Maunder Minimum" (little ice age?) could occur by 2015. Here is video of a scientific presenter who claims these findings were suppressed for four years: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=414_1...BbgTXPOkpAt.99

Here is a news article on this: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...es-plunge.html

Quote:
The Sun's activity is at its lowest for 100 years, scientists have warned.

They say the conditions are eerily similar to those before the Maunder Minimum, a time in 1645 when a mini ice age hit, Freezing London's River Thames.

Researcher believe the solar lull could cause major changes, and say there is a 20% chance it could lead to 'major changes' in temperatures.

'Whatever measure you use, solar peaks are coming down,' Richard Harrison of the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire told the BBC.

'I've been a solar physicist for 30 years, and I've never seen anything like this.'

He says the phenomenon could lead to colder winters similar to those during the Maunder Minimum.

'There were cold winters, almost a mini ice age.' ...
Needless to say, this news conflicts with the pseudo-scientific orthodoxy that climate change only means global warming.

Last edited by lasbrg; 03-12-2014 at 2:30 PM..
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Old 03-12-2014, 9:53 AM
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Decreasing? f it happens with a fixed frequency then the odds of it happening any given day are always the same. If not, then the answer is: it depends. There aren't a lot of ways to get good data from the year 1645, so I'm betting there's some wiggle-room built in there.

As touched on, the issue is the direction of the flare. It's likely it won't be pointed at the earth, simply because most of the sun doesn't point at the earth.

So there are the odds of a flare of that magnitude happening (rare), compounded by the odds of that size flare pointing right at us (also rare). There might also be mitigating factors, such as other planets directly in the path of such a flare, preventing us from getting the full effect, or other factors.

As for the Maunder Minimum putting the kibosh on any significant flares, maybe, but again, it's not as though there were solar observatories in the 17th century. Perhaps there were just as many big flares during the minimum, but OTHER solar activity was at a minimum, and all the flares just so happened to be pointed away from earth, so the geological data (or whatever they're using to estimate the level of solar activity from ~400 years ago) doesn't reflect the true level of big flare activity.
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Old 03-12-2014, 10:35 AM
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I don't think the likelihood of an EMP is diminishing. It is a very real threat that could happen at any time no matter how remote.
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Old 03-12-2014, 10:43 AM
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If the sun is getting hotter, (while the Earth hasn't increased any significant amount in 10-15 years) does this hold true?
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Old 03-12-2014, 1:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speedrrracer View Post
Decreasing? f it happens with a fixed frequency then the odds of it happening any given day are always the same. If not, then the answer is: it depends. There aren't a lot of ways to get good data from the year 1645, so I'm betting there's some wiggle-room built in there.

As touched on, the issue is the direction of the flare. It's likely it won't be pointed at the earth, simply because most of the sun doesn't point at the earth.

So there are the odds of a flare of that magnitude happening (rare), compounded by the odds of that size flare pointing right at us (also rare). There might also be mitigating factors, such as other planets directly in the path of such a flare, preventing us from getting the full effect, or other factors.

As for the Maunder Minimum putting the kibosh on any significant flares, maybe, but again, it's not as though there were solar observatories in the 17th century. Perhaps there were just as many big flares during the minimum, but OTHER solar activity was at a minimum, and all the flares just so happened to be pointed away from earth, so the geological data (or whatever they're using to estimate the level of solar activity from ~400 years ago) doesn't reflect the true level of big flare activity.

Solar flares and CMEs come from sun spots - no sun spots, no solar flares: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot

Quote:
Manifesting intense magnetic activity, sunspots host secondary phenomena such as coronal loops (prominences) and reconnection events. Most solar flares and coronal mass ejections originate in magnetically active regions around visible sunspot groupings. Similar phenomena indirectly observed on stars are commonly called starspots and both light and dark spots have been measured.[6]
There were solar observatories, or at least solar observations, in the 17th century: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

Quote:
The Maunder Minimum occurred between 1645 and 1715 when very few sunspots were observed. This was not due to a lack of observations; during the 17th century, Giovanni Domenico Cassini carried out a systematic program of solar observations at the Observatoire de Paris, thanks to the astronomers Jean Picard and Philippe de La Hire. Johannes Hevelius also performed observations on his own.
The frequency of a solar EMP strike on the Earth should follow a random distribution, like rolling dice, and not a time-dependent distribution like for an earthquake where stress builds up over time on fault line. We are not "due" for a big CME hit like the Carrington Event, just because it hasn't happened in 150-some years. The earth has to be exactly lined up when it goes off and you imagine that will be a pretty infrequent and random occurrence.

One thing I hadn't though of before was variable sun behavior that could be bad for us. Just now on the Maunder Minimum Wikipedia page, I saw this entry in the sun spot table:

Quote:
...
1640 0
1650 3
1660 Some sunspots reported by Jan Heweliusz in Machina Coelestis
1670 0
1680 1 huge sunspot observed by Giovanni Domenico Cassini
...

Last edited by lasbrg; 03-12-2014 at 1:34 PM..
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Old 03-12-2014, 2:12 PM
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Here's something new, and going against my own OP. PDF Article

Quote:
The study, a joint venture from researchers at Lloyd's of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the United States, details a dystopian scenario where a shortage of electrical transformers would leave Western nations without electricity for months because of the time needed to build replacements.

A solar storm occurs when magnetic fields "loop" out of sunspots, releasing huge amounts of energy. These bursts of "plasma", a superheated, electrically-charged gas, could enter the Earth's own magnetic field and eventually disrupt networks dependent on electricity on the ground.

Huge surges of electricity flowing unexpectedly into telephone lines, the National Grid and transport networks would overwhelm them, resulting in widespread power failures.

The total cost of such a scenario today in Europe and North America is estimated by Lloyd's at $2.6 trillion (£1.67tr) for a five-month blackout period, though it could be as low as $0.6tr (£0.39tr).

According to the report, Earth is overdue for such an event, which would normally be expected every 150 years.

"Historical auroral records suggest a return period of... 150 years for very extreme storms," it reads, adding that "The geomagnetic storm risk is projected to peak in early 2015".

Data on sunspots, extreme magnetic activity on the sun's surface that can cause solar storms, dates back to 1775. This date is thought of as the beginning of the first of Earth's 11-year "solar cycles". Currently, the Earth is nearing the peak of the 24th cycle.

The model used to map the effects of an extreme solar storm is that of the so-called "Carrington Event" of 1859.

In August of that year, a solar storm reportedly destroyed telegraph wires in North America and Europe, giving operators electric shocks and knocking out the telegraph network as far away as Australia and Asia for two days. However, this was an age before every aspect of life in Western nations was dependent on electricity.

According to the report, "The duration of these outages will depend largely on the availability of spare replacement transformers.

"If new transformers need to be ordered, the lead-time is likely to be a minimum of five months."

Neil Smith, Research Manager at Lloyd's of London, explained: "They are very limited in terms of numbers of replacements and manufacturing new transformers takes quite a long period of time, up to almost two years.

"These are huge pieces of equipment. Building and transporting it is a huge job.

"This could take weeks, even years, in the event of a really big storm.

Widespread social unrest could follow as citizens scrambled for resources. "It could be quite frightening," he added.

In the event of a solar storm, systems for controlling the flight path of aeroplanes would stop, potentially grounding entire fleets. Satellites that power the world's telecoms networks would be knocked out, and if enough generators were overwhelmed schools would close and hospital patients reliant on electrical equipment would be put at risk.
So one report has a new little ice age starting in 2015 and another has 2015 as peak risk time for a civilization-ending EMP. Just to be safe, I'll prep for both.

Last edited by lasbrg; 03-12-2014 at 2:32 PM..
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Old 03-28-2014, 8:14 PM
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But then you could get the big heart attack or a jet engine can fall off of an airliner and smoosh you dead??? Be prepared just in case like the people would do years ago. Ya know before everybody became mass consumers
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Old 03-30-2014, 4:56 PM
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Likelihood that nearby aliens have taken a dislike to our species and are in the middle of spending 75 years accelerating a 40 kilometer diameter rock up to 0.1C and it's scheduled to arrive dead center on Planet Earth in about 50 years?

It's gonna look just like Alderaan. Terminal ballistics at one tenth the speed of light anyone?

And how do you prep for that?
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Old 03-30-2014, 5:28 PM
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A good deal of hardening of electrical components in key areas have made,the potential for disaster less then it was 5 years ago, but it's still huge.
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