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  #1  
Old 01-28-2014, 6:11 AM
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Default how much longer until powder is readily available?

just want to hear some guesses. it seems to be that all components can be found online pretty easily except powder.
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Old 01-28-2014, 6:24 AM
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Soon™

or

Two Weeks™
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  #3  
Old 01-28-2014, 6:24 AM
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If it stays perfectly sunny then a few months. But even chances of a shower or a slight drizzle could push that off many more months. A sudden storm could push the date years.

Best advice is to stock up as soon as you have the chance.
I haven't bought or even looked for powder in over 2 years. The only reason I even know about there being a powder shortage is because of this forum.
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Old 01-28-2014, 7:01 AM
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Soon™

or

Two Weeks™
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Old 01-28-2014, 8:33 AM
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The King of America's state of the union decree is tonight.

I'd expect the availability of ammo and reloading components to become non-existent as a result. Every time that SOB or any of his royal guard open their ****ing mouths, I swear to god...
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  #6  
Old 01-28-2014, 8:36 AM
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If powder is not readily available, it is up to YOU to be readily available. Couple hundred you sit on for primers or powder or whatever. Bullets, those sell out quick too, for good deals or common types. You have two choices.

Spend your money now and watch the dollar not go very far,

Or be patient, sit, and hope you have enough inventory now to last you to when you find the deal.

---------

Because one day you'll be in a shop randomly, or a gun show randomly, or you'll get a call from a buddy, and the product will be there. You'll have 5 minutes to decide. And it will be nice to have that bucket of money set aside so you can move on it. Or pass and wait for the next. It's not about readily available. it's about the deal. Who calls primers readily available right now, when every gun store has 10-50,000 of them, all for $55 per 1000? That is not my definition of readily available!
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Old 01-28-2014, 9:21 AM
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Hogdon makes most of the powder in the US. They don't seem too interested in increasing the supply. I haven't read that they are expanding or running additional shifts. Like I have with the ammo makers. Or the ammo makers are getting first dibs on the powder and reloaders get what's left.

I would guess about a year from now, reloaders have been squirreling it away and that eats up what's produced. It's gonna take a while to get away from the communist model of shortages and buy everything you see; you might never see it again.
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Old 01-28-2014, 9:25 AM
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On January 28th, Barry comes out of his castle on 1600 Gobbler's Knob, in front of millions of faithful (or dead) followers from all over the world, to predict the powder availability for the rest of the winter.

According to legend, if Punxsutawney Barry sees his shadow, there will be six more months of price gouging from LGS and online retailers. If he does not see his shadow, there will be an early spring and many sleepless nights at the press.

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Old 01-28-2014, 11:43 AM
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3 months everyone will be fully stocked. Or not.
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  #10  
Old 01-28-2014, 11:52 AM
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All stock restored in 2016... Rand Paul will see to it personally.
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  #11  
Old 01-28-2014, 11:52 AM
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The process of creating the bases for all gunpowders takes about a year. So the finished product is last years "brew". So it would take at a minimum one year to increase the base supply of material to manufacture smokeless powders.

99% of powder is manufactured overseas. Hodgdon and IMI are mostly made in.. Australia then shipped here in bulk, then reprocessed into the cans we see.

So regardless of any special shenanigans you have a one year lag. Now there are shenanigans going on at the ports that is slowing the processing through of powder (likely intentionally). In an extremely tight market due to demand any delays will have a strong ripple effect.

So magic 8 ball says, at least a year from when the companies ramped up production to a maximum time of.. never.
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Old 01-28-2014, 12:13 PM
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Since you don't live in So cal powder might be tough. Down here you can get most powders for $25-$40 per pound. What do you need ? That would help to find for you. 50 bmg, varget, tac, 700x, 231 ????
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  #13  
Old 01-28-2014, 12:42 PM
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All stock restored in 2016... Rand Paul will see to it personally.
Close to my guess, but 1 year after the next Pro 2A president.
When ever the American people decide to do that again.
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Old 01-28-2014, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by edgerly779 View Post
Since you don't live in So cal powder might be tough. Down here you can get most powders for $25-$40 per pound. What do you need ? That would help to find for you. 50 bmg, varget, tac, 700x, 231 ????
Is there powder available anywhere in SoCal right now? I'm looking for Unique, Power Pistol, Titegroup... Angeles and Phillips Wholesale are out.
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Old 01-29-2014, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by meaty-btz View Post
The process of creating the bases for all gunpowders takes about a year. So the finished product is last years "brew". So it would take at a minimum one year to increase the base supply of material to manufacture smokeless powders.
Where did you see it takes a year? Nitrocellulose is cotton lint that is soaked in concentrated sulphuric and nitric acids for a short period of time, then rinsed to remove the acid. From all the articles I've seen, it might take 24 hours to make a batch. Then they do the process of making into whatever shape they need.
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Old 01-29-2014, 12:17 PM
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Get a flintlock and learn to make homemade
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Old 01-29-2014, 12:19 PM
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There is plenty of powder out there, you just have to hunt for it, be quick and be flexible. It's not "in stock" at most places because it is still like .22 LR ammo right now, a retailer gets a few hundred pounds and boom, it's sold out in about an hour. Thanks to this forum, I have scored much more powder in the past three months than I could through most of last year. Keep your eyes out here and on Gunbot, it is out there, it just doesn't last.

Buy popular powders that you may not even want because if it is the right powder like Varget or 4895, it is like currency and you can easily trade it for the powder you are looking for. Right now is also a great time to try other brands of powder too, perhaps Hodgdon is in short supply but there is some Alliant available, try a new powder.
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  #18  
Old 01-29-2014, 12:30 PM
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Powder is available, you have to check on a weekly basis and be prepared to buy when they have it. Beginning of December I bought 12 lbs of various powders, that I needed. have a first and a second choice and buy when you see it.
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Old 01-29-2014, 12:48 PM
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The supply opened up a lot in October and then tightened up again. Powder Valley posted some stats on that and also their sales for the year, which was a record. They're getting in powder, it's just going away as soon as they get it. And it'll probably continue to get bought as soon as it gets in until all the existing and new reloaders build up their personal stock to a level that they're comfortable with, which at this point is probably a pretty big supply...
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Old 01-29-2014, 12:56 PM
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no one is fully stock yet but I am at this time able to buy powder, may not be what i am looking for but it is loadable.
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  #21  
Old 01-29-2014, 2:40 PM
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Originally Posted by klewan View Post
Where did you see it takes a year? Nitrocellulose is cotton lint that is soaked in concentrated sulphuric and nitric acids for a short period of time, then rinsed to remove the acid. From all the articles I've seen, it might take 24 hours to make a batch. Then they do the process of making into whatever shape they need.
The process involves fermentation. Not just he making of the actual "gun cotton". Mostly the long fermentation for potassium nitrate. There is a supply chain. I was under the impression that the factories worked with it on site rather than rely on an external source.
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Old 01-29-2014, 4:07 PM
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There is plenty of powder out there, you just have to hunt for it, be quick and be flexible.
+1. I went to a couple gun stores this weekend and one had powder (10 or more types)... I had a powdervalley order show up this Monday. Its out there...

Last edited by sl0re10; 01-29-2014 at 4:18 PM..
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  #23  
Old 01-30-2014, 10:33 AM
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The process involves fermentation. Not just he making of the actual "gun cotton". Mostly the long fermentation for potassium nitrate. There is a supply chain. I was under the impression that the factories worked with it on site rather than rely on an external source.
I did some googling; nitrocellulose needs nitric acid. Nitric acid is on the govt restricted list chemicals, since it is a precursor to explosives. So for small quantities, potassium nitrate is substituted for nitric acid. Industrial, like powder makers, they can get all the nitric acid they want. Other explosive using potassium nitrate is the original one; black powder.

At the factory, they have flimsy buildings that are spread out around the property. Flimsy, so they don't contain any explosions. They mix the ingredients and put them into what is called "the angel buggy", couple of hundred pounds. Then it goes to the extruding machine and they make long strings like spaghetti. Gets cut into whatever shape they need, coat it with graphite or other flame deterrents, and let it dry out and package it.

If the powder company is smart, they'll run the plant 24/7, if the demand is there. They don't make any money when all that equipment is idle. With all the wars we've been fighting, pretty sure they were 24/7 or close to it. So they need to expand if the supply is to increase.
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Old 01-30-2014, 10:48 AM
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Looks like we might finally get some powder this weekend up in the Sierras.
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Old 01-30-2014, 12:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by klewan View Post
I did some googling; nitrocellulose needs nitric acid. Nitric acid is on the govt restricted list chemicals, since it is a precursor to explosives. So for small quantities, potassium nitrate is substituted for nitric acid. Industrial, like powder makers, they can get all the nitric acid they want. Other explosive using potassium nitrate is the original one; black powder.

At the factory, they have flimsy buildings that are spread out around the property. Flimsy, so they don't contain any explosions. They mix the ingredients and put them into what is called "the angel buggy", couple of hundred pounds. Then it goes to the extruding machine and they make long strings like spaghetti. Gets cut into whatever shape they need, coat it with graphite or other flame deterrents, and let it dry out and package it.

If the powder company is smart, they'll run the plant 24/7, if the demand is there. They don't make any money when all that equipment is idle. With all the wars we've been fighting, pretty sure they were 24/7 or close to it. So they need to expand if the supply is to increase.
In the end though, most powder is manufactured over seas and shipped here for "repacking".

Undeniable is that there is not enough powder to meet demand.. mind you most of us love our boutique powders, large powder batches are a different animal. The largest problem is that most of us have a favored powder, the problem is that most of us tend to favor the same powder. Load information and data can create "popular" and "not popular" powders.

Most reloaders are nit-pickers and the idea of using a "lesser" powder rubs many the wrong way. So you will have a run on the popular powders and then people turn to secondary favorites till all that is left is the stuff no one wants.. like .50BMG powder.

The ironic thing is that it is not in the manufacturers best interests to curtail the supply of powder as if people "switch powders" they might never "switch back" so it is in their best interests to ensure company loyalty by providing the powders as much as the demand is. There really isn't much money to be made trying to force a short market to spike prices. Reloaders are also very price sensitive, they will switch away rather than pay more in most cases. Or not buy at all.
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Old 01-30-2014, 12:51 PM
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Be vigilant about checking all the on-line retailers. I use 4831sc and H4350 and find it without too much difficulty. My advantage is working nights and have scored at 3 a.m. on a few occasions. When you see it, buy all you can afford. Makes it cheaper with haz fees and shipping. Any left over is easily resold.
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Old 01-30-2014, 1:06 PM
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I'm thinking this is the new normal.
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Old 01-30-2014, 4:50 PM
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I'm thinking this is the new normal.
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Old 01-30-2014, 5:18 PM
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My dads best friend uncles best friend knows a guy who knows a guy that works for Joe the Plumber says in a couple weeks powder should be readily available.
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Old 01-30-2014, 6:10 PM
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I'm thinking this is the new normal.
Same crap was happening 20 years ago with primers, eventually the pipe got filled and it was back to normal.
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Old 01-30-2014, 7:15 PM
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Originally Posted by klewan View Post
So for small quantities, potassium nitrate is substituted for nitric acid.
.
Um, pretty sure potassium nitrate is just an oxidizer not an acid. It's used in the manufacture of black powder among other things not smokeless powder. Nitrocellulose and nitroglycerin is used for modern smokeless powder.
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Old 01-30-2014, 7:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by klewan View Post
I did some googling; nitrocellulose needs nitric acid. Nitric acid is on the govt restricted list chemicals, since it is a precursor to explosives. So for small quantities, potassium nitrate is substituted for nitric acid. Industrial, like powder makers, they can get all the nitric acid they want. Other explosive using potassium nitrate is the original one; black powder.

At the factory, they have flimsy buildings that are spread out around the property. Flimsy, so they don't contain any explosions. They mix the ingredients and put them into what is called "the angel buggy", couple of hundred pounds. Then it goes to the extruding machine and they make long strings like spaghetti. Gets cut into whatever shape they need, coat it with graphite or other flame deterrents, and let it dry out and package it.

If the powder company is smart, they'll run the plant 24/7, if the demand is there. They don't make any money when all that equipment is idle. With all the wars we've been fighting, pretty sure they were 24/7 or close to it. So they need to expand if the supply is to increase.
Someone ought to suggest to Tulu/Wolf/ et all that they just ship us their powder instead of their cr*py ammo... they could probably make the same money.

But that's the next place to fall back when domestic production is at capacity... importing...
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Old 01-30-2014, 8:41 PM
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but hillary is standing by
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  #34  
Old 01-30-2014, 8:46 PM
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According to a representative from Hodgdon at Shot Show 2014, the powder climate for 2014 will be exactly the same as 2013.
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Old 01-30-2014, 8:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkInFolsom View Post
Um, pretty sure potassium nitrate is just an oxidizer not an acid. It's used in the manufacture of black powder among other things not smokeless powder. Nitrocellulose and nitroglycerin is used for modern smokeless powder.
It is an oxidizer, and used in black powder. But if you don't have a permit to buy nitric acid, and you probably won't, you're not going to make any nitrocellulose.

I was looking to buy some nitric acid 10 years ago. It's used to dissolve nickel plating under chrome plating. You do this to restore 50 year old chromed rims on a Triumph motorcycle. Found out you have to be an industrial user or a chem lab to order it. I wasn't either, so the rims still sit with the rusted chrome...
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Old 01-30-2014, 8:52 PM
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According to a representative from Hodgdon at Shot Show 2014, the powder climate for 2014 will be exactly the same as 2013.
Validation! I was the first to say it was going to be a year before anything changes!!!
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Old 01-30-2014, 8:55 PM
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You are not looking hard enough
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Old 01-30-2014, 9:05 PM
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Originally Posted by klewan View Post
Validation! I was the first to say it was going to be a year before anything changes!!!
true. However the hodgdon representative did specify that they ARE NOT supplying manufacturers, strictly consumers...and we are still going to experience a drought.

I am excited to get my hands on some CFE Pistol though when they release it!
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Old 01-30-2014, 9:14 PM
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true. However the hodgdon representative did specify that they ARE NOT supplying manufacturers, strictly consumers...and we are still going to experience a drought.

I am excited to get my hands on some CFE Pistol though when they release it!
Hodgdon ain't shipping to the big guys first? No way. Big guys always have first dibs and the rest of us get what's left.

Germz; did you put a cocked and locked 1911 against his head while he was telling you this lie? I think not.
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Old 01-30-2014, 9:17 PM
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Take a nice road trip up north. Lots of powder and primers in Montana and Idaho at normal prices (didn't check WA or OR) Was up there a few weeks ago and the shelves were full including Bullseye and Red Dot for a little under $20. Like a kid in a candy store, I bought a bunch I didn't need including more primers.
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