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  #1  
Old 05-24-2012, 6:07 AM
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Default Cheap 7.62x54 ammo? For how long?

Just bought my first Mosin and I saw an interesting review of the VEPR Dragunov that Atlantic sells in 7.62x54.

Does anyone have any indication from any of the ammo wholesalers and suppliers of how long the supply of cheap 7.62x54 ammo will hold? I plan on buying a few thousand rounds but since it is not reloadable, how long the supply holds for is of concern if I was to buy an expensive rifle like the VEPR.

I know, who knows? They have obviously made a lot of ammo, but I am curious of any of you think it will dry up in the next few years? Perhaps buying the more expensive rifle in 7.62x39 or 5.45x39 might be smarter if I want something with a cheap ammo supply for the next decade or so?

Last edited by Capybara; 05-24-2012 at 9:58 AM.. Reason: Fixed typo
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Old 05-24-2012, 7:10 AM
metalliman545 metalliman545 is offline
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Let me get my time machine and check.
Lol take a chance, I remember when wolf 7.62x39 was 3$ for 20. And a year later it jumped to 7.99. I'm sure the russians made hundreds of billions of rounds for it though it'll eventually run out.
You mean 7.62x39 not 5.62?
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Old 05-24-2012, 7:21 AM
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My intuition is that it will never run out. Why? Because the 7.62x54R is the worlds oldest military cartridge still in service. 20 years from now, we will be buying "90s and early 2000s" surplus 7.62x54R. Unless they invent laser rifles in the near future, it is not going away anytime soon. It's too good of a cartridge, and it is too well established just like the .50 BMG or 9mm Luger. .
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Old 05-24-2012, 9:53 AM
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54r ammo has been produced in 1891. combloc made millions of rounds during cold war, now they're selling them off. the 54r round rifles are still in production (vepr, dragunov, psl, etc).

that being said, milsurp supplies will dry up eventually, but new ammo is still being produced. of course, the downside is paying $12-18 for a box of 20 is a lot, but the new rounds will be more accurate
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Old 05-24-2012, 9:57 AM
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Thats anyones guess, although X54 is the one cartridge likely to be around in supply for a while. One thing is certain is that it will rise in price, 5 yrs ago you could get a tin for $40. The best time to stock up is now.

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Originally Posted by Capybara View Post
I plan on buying a few thousand rounds but since it is not reloadable
Plenty of decent priced brasscase reloadable, namely PPU. You can reload at a reasonable rate. Heck I got some spam cans just for the bullets and powder, once you have a supply of brass, you can make a good non-corr load for the price of a primer.
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Old 05-24-2012, 9:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by metalliman545 View Post
You mean 7.62x39 not 5.62?
Stupid typo. yes, 7.62
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Old 05-24-2012, 10:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capybara View Post
Just bought my first Mosin and I saw an interesting review of the VEPR Dragunov that Atlantic sells in 7.62x54.

Does anyone have any indication from any of the ammo wholesalers and suppliers of how long the supply of cheap 7.62x54 ammo will hold? I plan on buying a few thousand rounds but since it is not reloadable, how long the supply holds for is of concern if I was to buy an expensive rifle like the VEPR.

I know, who knows? They have obviously made a lot of ammo, but I am curious of any of you think it will dry up in the next few years? Perhaps buying the more expensive rifle in 5.62x39 or 5.45x39 might be smarter if I want something with a cheap ammo supply for the next decade or so?
We make certain assumptions, and those assumptions could shift under our feet anytime. When I was a kid of 12, I could walk into a sporting goods store and buy as much .22 ammo as I wanted if I had the money without an adult.

In the future it could be more difficult to buy any ammo or more expensive due to taxes etc to suppress gun ownership. This could actually happen faster outside of the U.S. For example the Swiss came close to passing some harsh anti gun laws and have regular drives where they take guns away, including many historic ones, and destroy them. My point is any of the countries that have large stock piles of surplus ammo, could decide in order to comply with a new future U.N. convention on small arms etc, or E.U. convention to destroy the ammo rather than put it on the market.

Also there are larger macro economic issues. China is growing and developing, recently their growth has cooled, but the rest of the world is now competing with China to buy commodity metals, and now India is developing and will also start demanding more raw materials than in the past.

This is an historical shift. In the past the West and U.S. were the largest and almost sole consumers of raw materials and we had a monetary advantage.

At some point due to the pressure China and India put on commodities old ammo could start to have scrap value in the so called third world, and the scrap value could begin to drive up the price of existing surplus stocks of ammo, or you will see more ammo diverted to some company in China or Africa that buys it in bulk and pulls the bullets and melts it down to get the lead and copper and even the steel.

Even if the surplus ammo was not sold for scrap it would have scrap value and be more expensive as an existing product.

The other issue would be U.S. economic strength and the strength of the dollar. If we continue to decline economically the dollar might become so weak that again the scrap metal in surplus ammo would be too expensive for the average American to afford to shoot, which is already happening with regular ammo due to the weak dollar and commodity prices for things like copper being driven up by China.
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Old 05-24-2012, 10:20 AM
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Interesting take Warrior. FWIW, I totally agree with your synopsis of world factors having an impact on our ability to buy milsurp ammo.

Even if we manage to keep our 2A/RKBA, which at this point is in question, with the rest of the world caving to authoritarian governments and the U.N. trying to disarm most countries, I think it is a great time to learn how to reload, if we will still be able to obtain primers, powder and bullets years in the future.
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Old 05-24-2012, 11:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capybara View Post
Interesting take Warrior. FWIW, I totally agree with your synopsis of world factors having an impact on our ability to buy milsurp ammo.

Even if we manage to keep our 2A/RKBA, which at this point is in question, with the rest of the world caving to authoritarian governments and the U.N. trying to disarm most countries, I think it is a great time to learn how to reload, if we will still be able to obtain primers, powder and bullets years in the future.
I don't see any of this happening short term. Stuff like this happens over time in most cases, and the effects are very subtle, with the exception of China.

When China does anything, especially in terms of commodities, because of their size and buying power, the impact is huge and sudden on the rest of the world. Its like sleeping in the same bed with a giant, any time they move you will feel it.
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Old 05-24-2012, 11:34 AM
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I hear you. All prices for durable goods, concrete, vehicles, etc. have all had noticeable and dramatic price and availability issues because of China.
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Old 05-24-2012, 12:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capybara View Post
I hear you. All prices for durable goods, concrete, vehicles, etc. have all had noticeable and dramatic price and availability issues because of China.
I agree with you about reloading. I'm not paranoid but having the freedom to make your own ammo is almost a necessity where I live already because of all the California local restrictions on shipping and ranges restricting magnetic ammo.
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Old 05-24-2012, 4:36 PM
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Reloading and casting. That's really the answer. There are several 0.310" through 0.312" cast boolit styles, and the moulds are actually affordable. Whenever you see that Boxer/brass Prvi Partizan ammo on sale, grab some.

Even if you have to pay $1.00/lb for lead on eBay, it's still worth it. Wheel weight alloy is generally the way to go for 7.62x54R.
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Old 05-24-2012, 5:08 PM
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Here's a good example of military surplus drying up: can you still find milsurp .303?
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Old 05-24-2012, 5:24 PM
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Quote:
Here's a good example of military surplus drying up: can you still find milsurp .303?
Yeah. There should be a huge stash of it up in Canada in a very cold remote place where the German army would never look. The other huge stash is in a remote part of Australia in a very dry and hot place in the outback where the Japanese army would never look...so much for the British Empire.
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Old 05-24-2012, 5:55 PM
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When I had my 01 ffl I had access to the J street dealer only warehouse in Sacramento. They sold 9mm in true bulk fashion. You would use a shovel and fill bags/buckets or whatever and pay by the pound. I think it was something like 40$/1000. I thought it would never end.... I think I'll go order some more sardine cans of 7.62x54 right now
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Old 05-24-2012, 6:14 PM
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54R has already tripled in price over the last few years. 10 cents a round was high brick and mortar retail just 7 or 8 years ago.
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  #17  
Old 05-24-2012, 8:52 PM
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I just watched the Copes video on how to open those spam cans. I take it a regular handheld can opener won't do it?
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Old 05-24-2012, 10:02 PM
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Not that long ago I was paying $79 for 1440rds.

7.62x39 was $79/1000 for Wolf.

Bricks of .22LR would go on sale for $8.99...sometimes $7.99
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Old 05-24-2012, 11:15 PM
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Capybara I started a new thread based on news article today in NY times on Chinese economy relative more to future ammo costs.
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Old 05-25-2012, 3:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FinnCollector View Post
Not that long ago I was paying $79 for 1440rds.

7.62x39 was $79/1000 for Wolf.

Bricks of .22LR would go on sale for $8.99...sometimes $7.99
and I remember when paying over a dollar for a gallon of gas was considered insane!

The cold war era surp will dry out sooner or later, but I doubt the round will go away anytime soon. Plenty of currently used machine guns and rifles still use the round.
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  #21  
Old 05-25-2012, 6:52 AM
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So I guess the takeaway is to buy a ****load of 7.62x54 while it is still relatively cheap.
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Old 05-25-2012, 7:01 AM
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Quote:
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So I guess the takeaway is to buy a ****load of 7.62x54 while it is still relatively cheap.
Yep.
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Old 05-26-2012, 3:57 AM
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Just bought 880 rounds for $200 shipped from ammotogo.com, ammoman.com was the same price. Everywhere else was about $30 more.
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Old 05-26-2012, 5:03 AM
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I guess I need to save more then just money now...
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Old 05-26-2012, 5:41 PM
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Where is 30-06 surplus ammo at now? Almost non-existent. 7.62x54R surplus will run its course within the next few years. Buy now and have no regrets.
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Old 05-26-2012, 7:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moose_nukelz View Post
Just bought 880 rounds for $200 shipped from ammotogo.com, ammoman.com was the same price. Everywhere else was about $30 more.
Even cheaper ($175ish), and this is very good ammo: http://www.sgammo.com/product/surplu...188-wood-crate
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Old 05-28-2012, 7:21 PM
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Buy good pile of the stuff...I use a % each pay check to buy ammo and firearms instead of more than my 401's match.
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Old 05-29-2012, 9:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Army GI View Post
My intuition is that it will never run out. Why? Because the 7.62x54R is the worlds oldest military cartridge still in service. 20 years from now, we will be buying "90s and early 2000s" surplus 7.62x54R. Unless they invent laser rifles in the near future, it is not going away anytime soon. It's too good of a cartridge, and it is too well established just like the .50 BMG or 9mm Luger. .
That's logical and I hope you're right. That said, I'm covering my bets by purposely making this caliber the " only " Russian milsurp that I will use for the the next couple of years. My domestic investments are in 30-06, .308, .45acp, and the venerable .22LR. Yeah, there's noticeable gap there. But I'm confident the AR community will keep everything afloat until I'm ready to jump onboard the 5.56 boat.
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Old 05-30-2012, 5:43 AM
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5.56 has become annoyingly expensive. Problem is, I doubt the cost is ever coming back down.
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