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  #41  
Old 02-12-2007, 11:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wonderer
Is the reference number of "over 50,000 AR-15 receivers" a generalization or is there a source for this number?
I met a person toward end of March '06 who had various business with DOJ Firearms Division.

His contact there at DOJ said in mid-March they were quite busy w/AR stuff and that analysis seem to show somewhere around 30K off-list receivers were sold by then.

Most of these were probably ARs, but there were probably a few percent off-list AK receivers (which really hadn't gotten traction yet for several reasons) as well as some FAL and HK clone receivers.

I believe the DOJ could figure this estimates by accounting for DROS number increases over prior month's sales, and prior month of prior year. Rifle sales in general are fairly slow and predictable and this would be readily discernable.

End of Dec '05 and first month or two of 2006 also had DOJ conducting raid-like 'audits' of FFLs selling off-list receivers. So between these characterizations I'd bet that 30K number is reasonably close - plus or minus 10% (resulting in 27K-33K by end of March).

I was personally estimating 12K by then, but I didn't realize that there were HUGE sales in SoCal area and group buys we didn't hear of on Calguns, etc.

There was a HUGE surge of buying after the Feb 4 "Category 4" memo where DOJ had promised they were gonna list.

So if we have around 30K in March '05, with continued interest fanned by various subsequent DOJ memos, and continuing interest exhibited here on Calguns and AR15.COM, along with shops carrying OLLs as standard-stocked items (San Jose's Alamden Gun Exchange appears to be the first!), it would be absolutely reasonable to predict somewhere around 50K-ish at end of 2006.

Again that 50K number of off-list receivers is gonna have a smidgen of AK, FAL, HK clone receiver sales mixed in..
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  #42  
Old 02-12-2007, 2:17 PM
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Thanks for the thoughtful response regarding estimate of OLL numbers.
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  #43  
Old 02-16-2007, 2:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bwiese
Again that 50K number of off-list receivers is gonna have a smidgen of AK, FAL, HK clone receiver sales mixed in..
I can evey say I've talked to a number of people who've had 10 or more off list rifles or receivers of their own, and these are people I know or have talked to in person.

So I figure at least 10-15k Off List receivers/rifles are owned by several hundred people. If you believe the results of this internet message forum poll from May of last year is somewhat accurate, it's not hard to believe...

http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/s...ad.php?t=32189
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  #44  
Old 02-19-2007, 12:05 PM
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thank you, that is great info!!
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  #45  
Old 03-15-2007, 7:37 PM
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so would a 50 beowulf be legal in ca as long as it needs a tool to remove the mag? it is a 50 cal pistol round so it should not pose as a problem in the 50bmg ban. also would i be able to run a 10 rd beowulf mag even though it looks like a 30 rounder?
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  #46  
Old 03-16-2007, 2:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by basing110 View Post
so would a 50 beowulf be legal in ca as long as it needs a tool to remove the mag? it is a 50 cal pistol round so it should not pose as a problem in the 50bmg ban. also would i be able to run a 10 rd beowulf mag even though it looks like a 30 rounder?
Welcome to Calguns. 50 Beowulf is not prohibited in Ca, so that would be fine.

If what you're saying about the mag is that it holds 30 .223 rounds, but only

10 of the 50 Beo rounds, I think you're probably ok. Provided that you

have the 50 Beowulf upper on
. If you disconnect the upper however, you

have a problem.
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  #47  
Old 03-20-2007, 3:12 PM
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Wonderer, great letter
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  #48  
Old 03-21-2007, 12:45 AM
Archenemy550 Archenemy550 is offline
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If the .50 BEO mag was marketed as a .50 BEO 10 round magazine, then it is a 10 round magazine, not a 30 round 5.56 magazine.
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  #49  
Old 03-21-2007, 4:35 PM
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Gah, too bad I can't go back and change my vote on that poll. I have 30+ off-list receivers now. 9 AR, 19 AK/RPK, 2 MGI, 2 Cobb.
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  #50  
Old 03-22-2007, 12:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grammaton76 View Post
Gah, too bad I can't go back and change my vote on that poll. I have 30+ off-list receivers now. 9 AR, 19 AK/RPK, 2 MGI, 2 Cobb.
30?

Wow... you've been really busy.
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  #51  
Old 03-22-2007, 1:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grammaton76 View Post
Gah, too bad I can't go back and change my vote on that poll. I have 30+ off-list receivers now. 9 AR, 19 AK/RPK, 2 MGI, 2 Cobb.
.... and the rich get richer.
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  #52  
Old 03-22-2007, 4:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thefinger View Post
.... and the rich get richer.
Why do you think I started working weekends for CWS at gun shows? I'd be broke otherwise!
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  #53  
Old 03-22-2007, 4:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xenophobe View Post
30?

Wow... you've been really busy.
Just a little... if you think that's bad, my total number of gun purchases last year was 45, although 5 of those don't count too much because they were a group buy of Mosin M44's with other C&R guys, subsequently transferred off to the other licensees.

I actually did buy one more off-list receiver than is on those totals - gave my mom an M4gery for home defense.
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  #54  
Old 03-22-2007, 4:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grammaton76 View Post

I actually did buy one more off-list receiver than is on those totals - gave my mom an M4gery for home defense.

Ahh the family transfer "loophole". I know it well.


PS. Do you think if she ever had to use it, the guy would think "Of all the old ladies in all of the world, I pick the one with an "M-16" !!!!!"
The look on his face would be priceless!
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  #55  
Old 04-18-2007, 11:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Surveyor View Post
Ahh the family transfer "loophole". I know it well.

Its not a loophole, it's written into the code. OLL's are loopholes.
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  #56  
Old 04-18-2007, 12:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by photog View Post
Its not a loophole, it's written into the code. OLL's are loopholes.
Wrong, get your facts straight. OLLs are not a loophole, they are perfectly legal and there are a lot of letters from the DOJ, oops BOF, that say so.
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  #57  
Old 04-18-2007, 3:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by photog View Post
Its not a loophole, it's written into the code. OLL's are loopholes.
Did you fail to see the quotation marks?
That indicates that I am being facetious.

OLL's are not loopholes, they are a perfect example of following an absurd law to the letter.
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  #58  
Old 04-25-2007, 6:10 PM
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Great thread. Thank you. Have have used this site for about 1 year and with all of your help built 4 ARs and 1 FAL. AK coming.

Thanks
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  #59  
Old 04-25-2007, 8:39 PM
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Quote:
Just a little... if you think that's bad, my total number of gun purchases last year was 45...
Man I tried to abide by the laws recomendations of buying at least one gun a month but I couldn't afford it.

Share the secret brother.

Please don't tell me you married a rich woman that believes that her husband should have alot of toys.
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  #60  
Old 04-26-2007, 12:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wheelgunner View Post
Man I tried to abide by the laws recomendations of buying at least one gun a month but I couldn't afford it.

Share the secret brother.

Please don't tell me you married a rich woman that believes that her husband should have alot of toys.
Buy lots of cheap guns... i.e. receivers. Buy enough that, when the ban comes, you'll have enough to keep you puttering away into your 60's. That's what I was shooting for, although I probably should have more AK receivers in order to achieve that goal.

Also, be really frugal with your credit card for many years, until the OLL thing hits. Then, spend the next few years paying it off.
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