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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #1  
Old 09-03-2017, 9:11 PM
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Default Old nuclear war survival docs

But with the Fat Kid of NorKo around, maybe useful ...

h/t Clayton Cramer

http://www.madisoncountyema.com/nwss.pdf
Quote:
CRESSON H. KEARNY
Civil Defense Consultant, Retired
A LETTER TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FROM CRESSON KEARNY, INVENTOR OF THE KFM
Dear Reader,
At the time I developed the Kearny Fallout Meter with help from U.S. Department of Energy
scientists and engineers, we did not address the issue of nuclear terrorism. We were so
concerned back then in the 1970's with the danger of all-out nuclear war that we neglected to
instruct users of the KFM of its advantages in a terrorist attack with few and smaller nuclear
weapons. Fear of life-threatening fallout from massive Soviet attacks carried over to exaggerated
fears of all radiation, including that from terrorists' few weapons.
http://www.neatorama.com/2008/03/20/...he-late-1960s/
Quote:
Improvised Basement Fallout Shelter from The Late 1960s

and
http://www.realtor.com/advice/home-i...llout-shelter/
Quote:
How to Build a Fallout Shelter in Your Home (on a Budget, to Boot)
Do I think this problem is high probability? More at the ' cannot rule it out' level.
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The details only count after the Governor signs the bills.

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  #2  
Old 09-04-2017, 5:01 PM
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FEMA 1990 California nuke target map:
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Old 09-04-2017, 5:08 PM
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*Whew*!!! I'm so glad I moved from Los Angeles to the East Bay. SO much safer... (sarcasm alert!!).
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  #4  
Old 09-04-2017, 5:21 PM
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Enter where you live and some of the various bombs that have been used and that are available:

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
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  #5  
Old 09-04-2017, 5:25 PM
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What's the target directly north of Sac, Beale AFB?
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Old 09-04-2017, 5:27 PM
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Probably regret getting rid of those
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Old 09-04-2017, 5:43 PM
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Nuclear Yields:

North Korea:
120 kT (latest test)

US:
Little Boy: 15 kT
Fat Man: 20 kT
W76 warhead: 100 kT (12 of these fit in a Trident II)
W88 warhead: 475 kT (12 fit in trident ii)
B83: 1,200 kT (largest active device in service)
B53: 9,000 kT (decommissioned)
Castle Bravo: 15,000 kT (largest US test)
B41: est 25,000 kT (decommissioned, never tested)

Russian:
Tsar Bomba: 50,000 kT (tested, believed to be capable of 100,000 kT)

Theoretical max yields:
SS-18 ICBM: 37,000 kT
Saturn V: 700,000 kT
Gravity bombs dropped from Russian Annotov AN-225: 1,300,000 kT
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  #8  
Old 09-04-2017, 5:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskey_Tango View Post
What's the target directly north of Sac, Beale AFB?
Yes, that's Beale. Best I can tell, the one northeast of Chico I believe is the site of now decommissioned nuclear silos (which were actually much closer to Chico than the map indicates). Farther to the East is the Sierra Army Depot in Herlong
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  #9  
Old 09-04-2017, 6:41 PM
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Default In the "it's an ill wind blaws naebody gude" department

Here's an article on a prospective EMP strike to the west coast - https://pjmedia.com/trending/2017/09...tober-morning/

But it has this shining nugget
Quote:
The state government is effectively gone, and the federal government has imposed martial law
Pretty costly method ...
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JB now has until mid-October to act (or not) on bills sent to him. We're immune from most further mischief until the next session begins, late December 2017.

There is no value at all complaining or analyzing or reading tea leaves to decide what these bills really mean or actually do; any bill with a chance to pass will be bad for gun owners.

The details only count after the Governor signs the bills.

Not a lawyer, just Some Guy On The Interwebs.


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  #10  
Old 09-04-2017, 6:50 PM
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If your worried stay away from financial centers , military bases ( or sites that can be used as one , airports shipping ports and the like).

Kind of hard in CA . SF Bay Area is big target , LA another , Lawrence Livermore Lab on the maps .

You either want to be as far away to survive the aftermath , or so close it won't matter.

Use to work for a Govt. Contractor and saw the maps in the "Blue Cube" , really is no chance anywhere in CA of not suffering , just a matter of how long you want to suffer .

And leaving once you get word , well , just try leaving 15 min. later for work and see how traffic is going to be like getting out of Dodge .
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Old 09-04-2017, 7:32 PM
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Just at the moment - five years on may be very different - I don't think the Norks are on top of the accuracy thing, so if they can reach mainland US, guessing targets seems about all they can do, too.

Predicting where an attack might logically be effective (on whatever criteria one might like) is as yet different from guessing where a weapon might actually land.

US Minuteman LGM-30 has a 200 meter 'circular error probable'; for the NorKo HS 12
Quote:

"All told, the CEP will be greater than 5 km," Elleman said. (Five kilometers is equal to about 3 miles.) "But this is a very rough estimate. Given the paucity of flight tests, I suspect if used today, the HS-12 would have a CEP considerably larger than 5 km, perhaps 10 km, or more."
http://www.businessinsider.com/north...ot-work-2017-8

A little background from May - http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the...iles-101-20756

But an EMP strike does not need to worry about CEP or re-entry or other difficult problems.

ETA - try this tool, if it is interesting to you: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ --
Quote:
NUKEMAP. Created by Alex Wellerstein, 2012-2017.
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JB now has until mid-October to act (or not) on bills sent to him. We're immune from most further mischief until the next session begins, late December 2017.

There is no value at all complaining or analyzing or reading tea leaves to decide what these bills really mean or actually do; any bill with a chance to pass will be bad for gun owners.

The details only count after the Governor signs the bills.

Not a lawyer, just Some Guy On The Interwebs.



Last edited by Librarian; 09-04-2017 at 7:44 PM..
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  #12  
Old 09-04-2017, 8:10 PM
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I've been casually studying the effects of EMPs since NK's successful ICBM launch a few weeks ago and have come to the conclusion that most of the "lights out" scenarios are overstated *when assuming the use of an ICBM*

ICBMs are limited in payload yield a tiny area severely affected enough to cause cars to stop on the freeway. Power lines, transformers, telephone systems, etc -- things with long antennae would definitely be hit hard. So widespread power outages and a shortage of replacement transformers should be expected. Your unplugged laptop or cell phone? Probably OK. The cell tower and your ISP? Probably down until some hard parts can be replaced...

Having more durable and distant satellites knocked out of commission would literally take something more like detonating that an-225 loaded with 400,000 lbs of nukes at its maximum cruising altitude of 35,000 feet (still far lower than ideal for EMP).

EMP effects on government fleet of 1986-2002 cars/trucks: http://futurescience.com/emp/vehicles.html (only 1 of the 37 cars had to be towed. Some kept right on running, others shut down but could be restarted).
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Old 09-04-2017, 8:18 PM
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Then there's Starfish Prime from 1962 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclea...Starfish_Prime ...

This week the Norks claim a hydrogen bomb; if true, might be possible for them to reach that 1.4 mt power level.
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JB now has until mid-October to act (or not) on bills sent to him. We're immune from most further mischief until the next session begins, late December 2017.

There is no value at all complaining or analyzing or reading tea leaves to decide what these bills really mean or actually do; any bill with a chance to pass will be bad for gun owners.

The details only count after the Governor signs the bills.

Not a lawyer, just Some Guy On The Interwebs.


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  #14  
Old 09-05-2017, 1:42 AM
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Starfish prime's 1,440 Kt detonation (10x North Korea's latest) created a ~25 kV/m EMP over a small area (and only ~6 kV/m reached Hawaii).

FEMA plans are based on an even larger ~50 kV/m EMP:


But again, 36 out of 37 cars/trucks were able to continue driving after being exposed to 50 kV/m so even in that worst-case area it wouldn't be like the total end of civilization. Fire up the generator, replace a few fuses & light bulbs, and break out the old ham radio -- you'll be fine unless you're surrounded by sheeple in a Metro area who won't know what to do without widespread power for a few weeks.
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Old 09-05-2017, 3:27 AM
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I'm just crawling under my desk like I was taught in school.
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Old 09-05-2017, 4:21 AM
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Would surviving such a event be worth the effort?
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Old 09-05-2017, 10:14 AM
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I predict that North Korea will sell it to Iran.

Once Iran has it Israel or Saudi Arabia will be forced to act and the Middle East will be a mess.

I seriously doubt NK will ever take us on directly, they will stab us in the back by using a crazy surrogate such as Iran.
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Old 09-19-2017, 4:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jefferson Prepared View Post
FEMA 1990 California nuke target map:


Well, according to that, I'm safe in Northern Kern County. That said, would it not be wise to take out main roads? Like the I-5 Grapevine that connects The Greater Los Angeles area and the rest of Southern California with the Central part of the State? Is Highway 46 not like an important road? The Military uses this road a lot. I've been stuck in the middle of a convoy couple times. Have to admit, it's pretty cool, lol.
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Old 09-19-2017, 5:53 PM
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Jefferson Prepared is right. A legitimate EMP threat has been greatly overstated.

1) Proximity of detonation matters a great deal as energy falls off swiftly with distance.

2) Effects of that energy on electronics are largely unpredictable due to many variables.

As Jefferson stated, long thick wires like power lines make great antennas for the energy. Power outages would be very likely, but damage to consumer electronics are an unknown.

So, to inflict the EMP scenario a lot of people here are imaging, you'd first need detonations in relatively close proximity to your intended targets.

I believe Kim is semi-rational with a strong drive for self-preservation. If this is true, he won't attack his neighbors nor the US in a first strike, knowing the imminent second strike means the end of his life and country. He likely wants nukes and delivery vehicles to pose a credible threat and THEN sit down for negotiations. If the US does nothing and just deals with a nuclear DPRK, it sets a dangerous precedent for the US and world. It's like the policy on not making deals with hostage takers and terrorists.

A very dangerous scenario would be if one of his tests goes awry and unintentionally kills a significant number of non-DPRK civilians. **** storm to follow.

All I know for sure is these days it's a dangerous time to be living in Seoul.
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Old 09-20-2017, 9:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GG 5.56 View Post
That said, would it not be wise to take out main roads? Like the I-5 Grapevine that connects The Greater Los Angeles area and the rest of Southern California with the Central part of the State? Is Highway 46 not like an important road? The Military uses this road a lot. I've been stuck in the middle of a convoy couple times. Have to admit, it's pretty cool, lol.
Sure, but you wouldn't waste a nuke on a highway.
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Old 09-23-2017, 10:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jefferson Prepared View Post
Sure, but you wouldn't waste a nuke on a highway.
Not really worth the trouble, unless you have a lot of very large ones available. OK, so you cratered a certain spot. Detour around it on a side road, then re-enter the main road again. To take out a highway effectively, you're going to have to hit it over and over and over along its length. It makes a lot more sense to blanket-clobber the cities and such than to have to repeatedly paste empty concrete or asphalt. Plus the reconstruction part for the highway is going to be getting some large bulldozers in to scrape dirt back into the hole, then pave over it. You're going to have to do that anyway to deal with residual fallout on the spot.

Killing airfields is a lot better as a short-term effort, but the problem remains the same.. you're flattening something that is pretty much already flat, and can be replaced with a long enough stretch of road. If you want to kill something really economically damaging, kill railyards and shipping ports. Lots more difficult to rebuild, and ships and trains carry WAY more cargo.
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Old 09-23-2017, 10:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capt.Dunsel View Post
If your worried stay away from financial centers , military bases ( or sites that can be used as one , airports shipping ports and the like).

Kind of hard in CA . SF Bay Area is big target , LA another , Lawrence Livermore Lab on the maps .

You either want to be as far away to survive the aftermath , or so close it won't matter.

Use to work for a Govt. Contractor and saw the maps in the "Blue Cube" , really is no chance anywhere in CA of not suffering , just a matter of how long you want to suffer .

And leaving once you get word , well , just try leaving 15 min. later for work and see how traffic is going to be like getting out of Dodge .
That was true back then, based on a LARGE scale nukefest. I still don't think the Russians or Chinese are going to do that any time soon. The NKs don't have the numbers to make that kind of a mess (YET!) and their delivery systems leave a lot to be desired. It's not a great strategy to launch 10 or so high-value assets and hope that you hit 3 targets or so. Especially when you know for CERTAIN that that is the only chance you're going to get. The DPRK has about an hour to live after they did such a thing (40 min for the US leadership to extract their collective heads, and about 20 min flight time for the outgoing response) Of course, with their leadership being as big a bunch of screwballs as they are, the mental calculus may be seen by them as favorable for some reason.
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Old 09-23-2017, 11:19 AM
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The NK test missiles have been shot over/near Japan.
Is stumpy threatening the U.S. or Japan?
Looks like Japan to me.
Lots of historical bad blood there.

If stumpy could take out a first world economy he'd see himself as a world player.
He could take out Japan with what he has. How many nuke energy stations do they have?
Japan should be worried.
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Old 09-23-2017, 12:02 PM
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Even if NK *could* hit something the size of the US, they could muster what 2-3 warheads? sucks if you are where they hit - but you'll have the consolation that they likely were not aiming at you.

The response would I imagine be a bit more comprehensive, and accurate
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Old 09-23-2017, 1:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckdc View Post
Not really worth the trouble, unless you have a lot of very large ones available. OK, so you cratered a certain spot. Detour around it on a side road, then re-enter the main road again. To take out a highway effectively, you're going to have to hit it over and over and over along its length. It makes a lot more sense to blanket-clobber the cities and such than to have to repeatedly paste empty concrete or asphalt. Plus the reconstruction part for the highway is going to be getting some large bulldozers in to scrape dirt back into the hole, then pave over it. You're going to have to do that anyway to deal with residual fallout on the spot.

Killing airfields is a lot better as a short-term effort, but the problem remains the same.. you're flattening something that is pretty much already flat, and can be replaced with a long enough stretch of road. If you want to kill something really economically damaging, kill railyards and shipping ports. Lots more difficult to rebuild, and ships and trains carry WAY more cargo.
Roads- concentrate smaller tactical weapons on choke points such as the bridges in the bay area and key arteries through mountains. Tunnels would be a choice target, no one builds a tunnel if there's a more feasible alternative.

Rail - lots of relief/repair will of necessity involve rail transport.

Air - knocking out a few key hubs will hopelessly overburden the smaller ones.

Don't forget the domino effect. The grid is mostly interconnected and taking one chunk out of commission can impact several more.

What about fires started by blown transformers and electrical surges? Not to mention morons with candles and kerosene lamps who have accidents? Can't call 911 if the grid is kaput. Also what about water pressure? Not going to last long if the water company is in the dark and then how are you going to put those fires out?

People usually think about the big and obvious problems, often overlooking the secondary issues that don't capture the attention. Like having a ton of canned food because the atm & grocery store will be offline... but forgetting they only have an electric can opener.

If 38 out of 39 cars still run, terrific... but they won't run long without gas and the grid and petrochem industries are interdependent... oh, forgot that did we? The more of them and generators are running the quicker the supply dwindles. For the first few weeks or months all fuel will be reserved for the relief/repair effort. Within days expect a travel ban and fuel confiscation. Your generator may give you away and your neighbors may rat you out. If you plan to spend the duration somewhere you better be headed there on day one. Plan to sit and think about it a while, see how it goes? Remember the government may seem slow, but yhat slowness is always with regard to your needs, not theirs. They have think-tanked this all to death and know from the first instant their next moves. But be sure they will let on publicly that they are still planning and assessing all while putting those plans into action. You can't let grass grow unde your feet unless you want their plan to become your plan... just keep in mind that at that moment you become something to be "managed" and not a citizen of a democratic republic. Refugees in the Superdome didn't get to vote on how the place got run.

If there is one or more coastal/continental EMP's occur it'll be the first in a string of very bad days for nearly all of us.

And if you think 9/11 changed America forever just wait until you see the changes THAT kind of attack would bring. It will be unrecognizable.
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Last edited by bruss01; 09-23-2017 at 1:20 PM..
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