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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #1  
Old 08-15-2016, 11:47 AM
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Default Hypothetical War with China

This being the prep forum, I thought it relevant to share an interesting report from RAND about a hypothetical conflict with China:

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand...AND_RR1140.pdf

For those afflicted with TLDR:

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html

For those afflicted with extreme TLDR:

A war with China would be long and essentially both sides would never really 'win'.

What was interesting to me is RAND thinks a 2025 conflict (verse today) would be on more even ground.
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Old 08-15-2016, 3:17 PM
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The interest china has in its blue water navy is all I need to know about their intents.
The purpose of a blue water navy is to project their power................
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Old 08-15-2016, 3:34 PM
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China is smarter than that. Read the book One Second After. They frame Iran, NK and Venezuela. Eliminate three uglies and cripple the US.
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Old 08-15-2016, 6:18 PM
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all the yuppys would do a implode if they just stopped sending there cheap junk over here.

all the welfare slobs would roit if they just stopped sending there cheap junk over here,

wally wourld would have to close down do to no more goods for the shelves.\

all the dollar stores would close down due to no more cheap poisoned junk for there shelves.

why go to war with the us. just stop shipping there cheap junk to this country.



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Old 08-15-2016, 6:18 PM
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Or, Ghost Ship. While somewhat implausible, possibly, similarly devastating.
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Old 08-15-2016, 8:03 PM
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The Chinese Navy, despite all of the hype, is no match for the US Navy.

Not. Even. Close.

I can't believe I just said that....squids...
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Old 08-15-2016, 8:34 PM
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No Navy, no Air Force and no Attack Subs. Good luck with that.
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Old 08-15-2016, 10:48 PM
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Don't sell China short.
They are learning and playing the long game.
Techology they can't develop, they buy. What they can't buy they steal.
War with them will be protracted and bloody.
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Old 08-16-2016, 1:02 AM
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Originally Posted by olhunter View Post
The Chinese Navy, despite all of the hype, is no match for the US Navy.
Not. Even. Close.
I can't believe I just said that....squids...
They are not trying to match our Navy in the conventional warfare, but to use US casualty to gain political advantage.

They know that Americans are not willing to fight for other countries (e.g. Taiwan or Philippine) with high losses, so their plan is to concentrate attacks on American carrier groups. If they could sink or at least damage an American carrier, the public opinion in the US could turn against the war.
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Old 08-16-2016, 4:39 AM
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Originally Posted by KevinB View Post
No Navy, no Air Force and no Attack Subs. Good luck with that.
November 10, 2010 - China Fired Missile Seen In Southern California

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rOssVrhQmg
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Old 08-16-2016, 5:23 AM
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Anyone who says a country will not enter a war it can never win hasn't spent much time reading history.

China's total debt has quadrupled since 2007. There is a certain unsustainability going on in world economies with regard to debt. When leaders get squeezed they many times find ways to keep their unhappy subjects occupied with their nation's "enemies". Never underestimate the power of nationalistic sentiment.
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Old 08-16-2016, 5:43 AM
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They would never bother with mass destruction in the USA. When the time comes they'll just repossess us.
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Old 08-16-2016, 5:49 AM
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China has no interest in a war wit the US, there's no real profit in it.
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Old 08-16-2016, 5:56 AM
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China's Navy is up and coming. Stronger than most but not as strong as the US Navy. Heck, the US Navy is the strongest in the world by far. That said, China's Navy is picking up speed and could give the US a pretty darn good fight in about 10 years.

The other thing that has always irked me is their name. China's Navy is called the People's Liberation Army Navy. Huh? And crazier is their marines - the People's Liberation Army Navy Marine Corp. Ok...
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Old 08-16-2016, 8:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Steele View Post
Anyone who says a country will not enter a war it can never win hasn't spent much time reading history.

China's total debt has quadrupled since 2007. There is a certain unsustainability going on in world economies with regard to debt. When leaders get squeezed they many times find ways to keep their unhappy subjects occupied with their nation's "enemies". Never underestimate the power of nationalistic sentiment.
McNamara had some eye opening things to say about Castro in the Cuban Missile Crisis days. One of note being that Castro was willing to launch anyway knowing it would result in a completely devastating counter launch.

While I agree with your premise that political leaders will go to war to satisfy domestic issues (partly what Putin's doing), a China situation would be the opposite. If itchy trigger politicians/military escalated something, there would be severe consequence to their economy, creating domestic anger. RAND rightly points out that it could well be their people who pressure leaders to end a war.
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Old 08-16-2016, 8:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Citizen_B View Post

A war with China would be long and essentially both sides would never really 'win'.

I worked at a company that did prototype work for government weapons companies back in the 1980's and 1990's. Although I never saw any actual weapons, I talked to a lot of engineers about what they were working on.

Back in the 1980's they told me about a hyper-sonic jet plane. I did some work on the hydrogen injector plate for the engine. The description and drawing of the plane looked like the X-43. That was about 15 years before the first test flight.

I also worked on, and talked to engineers about, parts for laser weapons, and radar imaging (spying) weapons. I can assure everyone here that the US has weapons that make every other country's weapons look like stone-age spears. The only reason why the US would have a war with China is if the people that control the US government want a war.


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Old 08-16-2016, 8:23 AM
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And Carcassonne is on the list! LOL. No, you are right. My dad told me about some of the tests in the 70's. Star Wars was already here before Reagan "wanted" it. The only problem is, what do the Russians have?
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Old 08-16-2016, 8:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Carcassonne View Post
I also worked on, and talked to engineers about, parts for laser weapons, and radar imaging (spying) weapons. I can assure everyone here that the US has weapons that make every other country's weapons look like stone-age spears. The only reason why the US would have a war with China is if the people that control the US government want a war.
I think a war today would eventually, decidedly, result in a military 'win' for the US. The reason for quotes is because domestically, a war would be very unpopular, expensive, and hurt our economy. It's more like we would have 'lost' less.

The US also has the most to lose regarding space assets - and they are quite vulnerable. China already possesses ground based anti-satellite directed energy and kinetic intercept technology. An attack on our space assets would be extremely easy, effective, and expensive for us. No doubt we have certain protective capabilities to ensure we don't go blind, but an attack would still be severe. Being the most technologically advanced cuts both ways.
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Old 08-16-2016, 9:46 AM
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McNamara had some eye opening things to say about Castro in the Cuban Missile Crisis days. One of note being that Castro was willing to launch anyway knowing it would result in a completely devastating counter launch.

While I agree with your premise that political leaders will go to war to satisfy domestic issues (partly what Putin's doing), a China situation would be the opposite. If itchy trigger politicians/military escalated something, there would be severe consequence to their economy, creating domestic anger. RAND rightly points out that it could well be their people who pressure leaders to end a war.
Perhaps, but that is only one possible outcome. The one thing about war, when the shooting starts the plans can always be used for cleaning one's bottom.

Not to get too off topic, but I was watching one of those Sunday talk shows and Wesley Clark was on the panel. Something he mentioned that causes him to lose sleep at night was an eye opener. He talked about how when the Neutron Bomb development came to light here, the public was so revolted we were forced to quit research and development on such weapons. He stated that we stopped but the Russians did not and have committed a significant portion of the nuclear arsenal to such weapons. I had never heard this before.

His take, one which I tend to agree, which is unusual in itself as I rarely hear anything he says with which I agree, is the problem with Neutron Bombs is they lower the hurdle for the use of strategic weapons. Something about the lack of complete physical devastation that makes their use more palatable.

Not a comfortable thought when you consider Putin being crazier than a rat in a can. I guess like always, there is no shortage of things to worry about..
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Old 08-16-2016, 9:54 AM
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The US also has the most to lose regarding space assets - and they are quite vulnerable. China already possesses ground based anti-satellite directed energy and kinetic intercept technology. An attack on our space assets would be extremely easy, effective, and expensive for us. No doubt we have certain protective capabilities to ensure we don't go blind, but an attack would still be severe. Being the most technologically advanced cuts both ways.
One of the first things we would do is blind the enemy. Every Chinese satellite would be downed in a matter of hours.
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Old 08-16-2016, 10:21 AM
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One of the first things we would do is blind the enemy. Every Chinese satellite would be downed in a matter of hours.
Yep. We've been able to do that for decades.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vxfk5eWlbQo

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Old 08-16-2016, 10:56 AM
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One of the first things we would do is blind the enemy. Every Chinese satellite would be downed in a matter of hours.
Sure, they might be blind, but we also would lose an eye. The point was there would be a severe cost to us to achieve a 'victory'.

They also don't need space assets to attack our space assets.

If we really did clean out all their and allies space assets, there's now not a whole lot stopping them from setting off nukes in space.
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Old 08-16-2016, 11:03 AM
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There is not going to be any war with China, Russia or anyone else that has nuke capabilities. Both sides know that if one or the other begins to lose, they'll hit the button to end it. The media is trying to put this out there to scare people into thinking war with China is possible if Trump gets elected because of all his talk of restructuring the trade deals. The fact is, China and many other countries are screwing us over big time. We are being sold out and Trump wants to put a stop to that.
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Old 08-16-2016, 11:05 AM
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re: Russia developing neutron bombs, they also kept their biological warfare labs going despite signing a treaty forbidding it.

They really aren't trustworthy over there.
What concerns me is a 2 (or more) pronged attack where Russia and China act in cahoots.
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Old 08-16-2016, 12:53 PM
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Why would anyone think they'd go to war against our military when they can just buy the politicians that control it.
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Old 08-16-2016, 12:54 PM
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Why would anyone think they'd go to war against our military when they can just buy the politicians that control it.
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Old 08-16-2016, 2:42 PM
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China has no need to send a navy, they could drop a few million soldiers and tanks, artillery, etc right into our shipping yards by loading cargo containers filled with soldiers. The number of containers that come into the west coast ports daily is extraordinary.
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Old 08-16-2016, 4:52 PM
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We already are at war - weapons are useless in todays warfare. Economies are the currency of conflict.
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Old 08-16-2016, 6:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lugiahua View Post
They are not trying to match our Navy in the conventional warfare, but to use US casualty to gain political advantage.

They know that Americans are not willing to fight for other countries (e.g. Taiwan or Philippine) with high losses, so their plan is to concentrate attacks on American carrier groups. If they could sink or at least damage an American carrier, the public opinion in the US could turn against the war.
Just like what happened at Pearl Harbor, iirc
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Old 08-16-2016, 6:31 PM
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RAND did such a fine job with Viet Nam and the NYFD.

I wouldn't let them put air in my bicycle tires.
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Old 08-17-2016, 10:09 AM
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I do know that they are teaching Celestial Navigation again in the US Navy, I assume they know the eye's in the sky are going to be taken down, GPS, Iridium, GlobalStar etc. Back to basics.
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Old 08-17-2016, 6:18 PM
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In order for this to be on-topic for the Survival forum, someone needs to explain how preparation for 'War with X' is any different from fire, famine, flood, earthquake.

If it isn't about prepping for [insert disaster here], it's not on topic for this forum, and belongs in OT.
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Old 08-17-2016, 6:20 PM
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Korea . Vietnam and the decades in the middle east. The U.S. military is pretty much a failure. The winners are the defense contractors and the politicians that receive the lobby money.
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Old 08-17-2016, 6:20 PM
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RAND did such a fine job with Viet Nam and the NYFD.

I wouldn't let them put air in my bicycle tires.
Yeps.
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Old 08-17-2016, 6:22 PM
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Why would anyone think they'd go to war against our military when they can just buy the politicians that control it.
They already own the politicians the idiot voters keep in office.
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Old 08-17-2016, 7:01 PM
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In order for this to be on-topic for the Survival forum, someone needs to explain how preparation for 'War with X' is any different from fire, famine, flood, earthquake.

If it isn't about prepping for [insert disaster here], it's not on topic for this forum, and belongs in OT.
A war would mostly likely take down satellites that we have grown accustomed to using. Instantly be back in the analog world. So navigation skills of using a sextant, compass, compass rose, charts, parallel rulers, ham radios etc. become very useful.

Fire, famine flood earthquake, all the Sats will still be humming away and useful for comms and navigation.

Do commercial aircraft have ground based Loran anymore or are they totally dependent on the two GPS systems?

Does ground based DGPS work without satellites?

I recently rented a Sat Phone for two weeks, really neat to be offgrid and be able to talk to someone 7 thousand miles away, which could be done in an earthquake, flood, fire etc. but not in a war when the enemy knocks your birds down. I would need a ton of Ham gear to talk like I did with that little Sat phone.
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Old 08-17-2016, 7:17 PM
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I do know that they are teaching Celestial Navigation again in the US Navy, I assume they know the eye's in the sky are going to be taken down, GPS, Iridium, GlobalStar etc. Back to basics.
Interesting. My old man was a Navy WWII pilot who always stated Navy pilots were far better than Army since Army had landmarks to check position. Navy flew over oceans and only counted on the Sun, Stars, how much time elapsed/what time of day it was for position. One of his prized possession was his Navy watch/Chronometer which was extremely accurate for its day and was used to time the flight. I can easily see China taking out satellites to bring down the Net the military depends on. They have the capability.

https://youtu.be/GS_5VOEcKs0
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Old 08-17-2016, 7:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Californio View Post
A war would mostly likely take down satellites that we have grown accustomed to using. Instantly be back in the analog world. So navigation skills of using a sextant, compass, compass rose, charts, parallel rulers, ham radios etc. become very useful.

Fire, famine flood earthquake, all the Sats will still be humming away and useful for comms and navigation.

Do commercial aircraft have ground based Loran anymore or are they totally dependent on the two GPS systems?

Does DGPS work without satellites?
Not sure if Loran is still operational, but I think most of the Vortac's are still running. I think the FAA has a plan to slowly decommission the VOR system due to maintenance costs. Not sure about what the military is doing with TACAN.

Regardless of how the constellations hold up, in a time of strategic war, your GPS won't be working. Knowing how to determine your LOP will be useful again..
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Old 08-17-2016, 10:58 PM
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So I'd prepare for this war with China by buying lots of good maps for areas important to me and FRS and or GMRS radios for communication in case they take out our cell towers
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Old 08-17-2016, 11:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Librarian View Post
In order for this to be on-topic for the Survival forum, someone needs to explain how preparation for 'War with X' is any different from fire, famine, flood, earthquake.

If it isn't about prepping for [insert disaster here], it's not on topic for this forum, and belongs in OT.
This wouldn't be a war on the scale of Tonga vs. Samoa. This wouldn't be a war with some obscure lunatic dictator half way around the world were we just drop bombs out of RC planes because we want his small oil patch. This would be a war between the No. 1 and No. 2 superpowers on this planet and would be a disaster FAR eclipsing any localized disaster (fire/famine/flood/quake). If we're at war, our allies are also at war. Global conflict.

The report mentions some attack strategies/targets and the effects of those actions. As was mentioned, satellites are almost surely going to be attacked. That's disruptions not only to military services but civilian as well. We've taken for granted how entwined our lives are with technology today. GPS, communication (cell and landlines), TV/news, etc. all have backbones reliant on satellites. Cargo ships, planes, etc. all use GPS for efficient navigation globally.

There will most certainly be cyber attacks. Expect disruption in security, communication, finance, commerce, transportation, information, etc. How much of your personal wealth sits in the ether of computers/networks vs. what you can touch right now? The health of our economy depends on industries encapsulated in computers and networks.

This is not to mention the obvious loss of life and collective fear that develops in times of war. I could go on and on but I think it's fairly obvious this would be an epic disaster. AND, hope that in the dark time of war, we all have the wisdom and strength not to start shooting off nukes, because if that happens it's no longer a disaster.....
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