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Concealed Carry Discussion General discussion regarding CCW/LTC in California

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  #1  
Old 08-26-2016, 4:19 PM
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Arrow CA CCW Map & Table

Map Update for Fall 2018.

Note: I'm not updating the table as often, maybe once a year tops. County CCW issuance numbers are increasing difficult to find. The table may eventually go away unless there is some demand for it.

Please post comments for additions and/or changes in this thread, PM or e-mail me.





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Last edited by baggss; 09-16-2018 at 3:44 PM.. Reason: January 2017 Updates
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Old 08-26-2016, 4:23 PM
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Nice work. Thanks
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Old 08-26-2016, 4:24 PM
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Cool!
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Old 08-26-2016, 4:27 PM
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I'm not a numbers guy, so which county has the highest percentage of ccw's per population and which is worst?
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Old 08-26-2016, 4:37 PM
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The article in the SacBee that I reference shows Fresno as the highest and SF as lowest, but that's in the total number of permits.

Maybe I'll a percentage of permits/population column to the next version.
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Old 08-26-2016, 4:50 PM
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San Francisco recently doubled the number of CCW holders. They now have 4. (That info is about 6 months old but I think I can say that Frisco is the lowest county.
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Old 08-26-2016, 4:57 PM
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Good work. Not easy numbers to track down. Nice to know OC has passed 9500.
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Old 08-26-2016, 5:19 PM
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Nice thanks!
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Old 08-26-2016, 5:36 PM
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I wouldn't go changing Sonoma to yellow yet....

http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/s...6#post18732016

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Old 08-26-2016, 6:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalPI View Post
I'm not a numbers guy, so which county has the highest percentage of ccw's per population and which is worst?
ETA: LA is the worst (greatest portion of it's "circle" is below the zero line), and Shasta is the best (at ~4.5% of the adult pop., even though the national average, not best, is 6% of the adult pop.)

From the Sac Bee article:

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Old 08-26-2016, 7:06 PM
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So that particular graphic is where I pulled the numbers that have a "~" next to them from. Purely based on my interpretation of the size of the circles in relation to the circles that had hard numbers attached to them (LA, Ventura, SF, Fresno, Orange etc...). I don't think any of those numbers is particularly realistic at this point but I wanted to see something that gives a general sense of what the numbers should look like based on available data.

Additionally I just built the formula in Excel to give me the percentages based on the info in the spreadsheet and the numbers are depressing.

Percentage for Fresno (Highest number of active permits) was 0.0076410893%

Percentage for SF (Lowest number of active permits) was 0.0000046253%

Interestingly, in line with the graphic, Shasta was 0.0389900464% based on there being ~7000 permits active.

If there are roughly 80,000 permits statewide, as the graphic and article state, out of population of ~38,000,000, then statewide permits are at 0.00210526%

What does this mean? IMO, in a state where everyone wants to be special, if you have a CCW permit you really ARE special!

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Originally Posted by Paladin View Post
From the Sac Bee article:

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Old 08-26-2016, 9:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baggss View Post
So that particular graphic is where I pulled the numbers that have a "~" next to them from. Purely based on my interpretation of the size of the circles in relation to the circles that had hard numbers attached to them (LA, Ventura, SF, Fresno, Orange etc...). I don't think any of those numbers is particularly realistic at this point but I wanted to see something that gives a general sense of what the numbers should look like based on available data.

Additionally I just built the formula in Excel to give me the percentages based on the info in the spreadsheet and the numbers are depressing.

Percentage for Fresno (Highest number of active permits) was 0.0076410893%

Percentage for SF (Lowest number of active permits) was 0.0000046253%

Interestingly, in line with the graphic, Shasta was 0.0389900464% based on there being ~7000 permits active.

If there are roughly 80,000 permits statewide, as the graphic and article state, out of population of ~38,000,000, then statewide permits are at 0.00210526%

What does this mean? IMO, in a state where everyone wants to be special, if you have a CCW permit you really ARE special!
There was a study recently by John Lott, PhD and, IIRC, on average, >6% of Americans >18 yo have CCWs.

You, in making your map, are facing an issue I and the guy at CalCCW faced when revising/updating/maintaining their map: what does a color really mean? For us, it was ONLY the GC part of the CCW process (i.e., did NOT cover GMC hurdles, like letters of reference/recommendation, interviews with neighbors, employer/coworkers (or not), psych tests & interviews, etc).

Even then, there's the question of whether the rate of issuance (per capita) or total issuance numbers per county matter. I said, no, that does not matter. Why? Because some rural counties accept SD = GC and readily issue BUT not many people apply because the crime rate in that county is so low and folks are on fixed incomes (fed/state/local gov't employees, retired, etc.). Going by issuance #s makes the county look restrictive when in reality it is just the county residents being cheap, not wanting, much less needing to get a CCW vs the expenses involved.
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Old 08-26-2016, 9:22 PM
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Thanks for the work.

Are you sure Orange and Riverside should be light green? I thought they were issuing for self-defense.
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Old 08-26-2016, 10:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin View Post
There was a study recently by John Lott, PhD and, IIRC, on average, >6% of Americans >18 yo have CCWs.

You, in making your map, are facing an issue I and the guy at CalCCW faced when revising/updating/maintaining their map: what does a color really mean? For us, it was ONLY the GC part of the CCW process (i.e., did NOT cover GMC hurdles, like letters of reference/recommendation, interviews with neighbors, employer/coworkers (or not), psych tests & interviews, etc).

Even then, there's the question of whether the rate of issuance (per capita) or total issuance numbers per county matter. I said, no, that does not matter. Why? Because some rural counties accept SD = GC and readily issue BUT not many people apply because the crime rate in that county is so low and folks are on fixed incomes (fed/state/local gov't employees, retired, etc.). Going by issuance #s makes the county look restrictive when in reality it is just the county residents being cheap, not wanting, much less needing to get a CCW vs the expenses involved.
I agree with you pretty much across the board here. Since the first time I saw the map some years ago I clearly understood it was a tool to judge Good Cause and nothing else. The rest of the hurdles (Morals, cost, time, psych evals etc) can be equally as prohibited to many as Good Cause, but Good Cause is the "foot in the door" to even be considered.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tovarish View Post
Thanks for the work.

Are you sure Orange and Riverside should be light green? I thought they were issuing for self-defense.
Orange was, then wasn't and, from everything I can gather, is now issuing for Reasonable GC but not simply "Self Defense" as GC. Haven't heard much about Riverside though. If you have any references (posts by residents that show otherwise, RCSD web sight etc) I'll entertain making a change.
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Old 08-26-2016, 11:08 PM
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Originally Posted by SoCalPI View Post
I'm not a numbers guy, so which county has the highest percentage of ccw's per population and which is worst?
I'm thinking Shasta, and maybe a couple other "Jefferson" counties top the list for percentage.

Still, statewide, we are the 0.03%
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Old 08-27-2016, 9:01 AM
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Nice work baggss!
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Old 08-27-2016, 9:01 AM
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How come no information on San Joaquin county? I can assure you there is at least 2 lol.
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Old 08-27-2016, 10:03 AM
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How come no information on San Joaquin county? I can assure you there is at least 2 lol.
The OP should use 2014 Dec numbers from here when he doesn't have more recent numbers:
https://www.revealnews.org/article/w...san-francisco/
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Old 08-27-2016, 10:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Paladin View Post
The OP should use 2014 Dec numbers from here when he doesn't have more recent numbers:
https://www.revealnews.org/article/w...san-francisco/
Excellent. I'll work the numbers from 2014 into the ~ and N/A spaces on the table.

Anyone see any use for a comparison of county size (Sq Miles) in there? I have it, it's just not included in the current table.

Its curious though, Fresno has less permits in 2015 than 2014, if either of those articles are to be belived.
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Old 08-27-2016, 11:46 AM
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It's B.S. that CA DOJ BOF is not publishing up to date CCW issuance info every year.

Maybe submit a FOIA request to CA DOJ BOF for the info?

CA DOJ BOF CCW issuance count from 1987-2007.


Penal Code 26225
(a) A record of the following shall be maintained in the office of the licensing authority:
(1) The denial of a license.
(2) The denial of an amendment to a license.
(3) The issuance of a license.
(4) The amendment of a license.
(5) The revocation of a license.
(b) Copies of each of the following shall be filed immediately by the issuing officer or authority with the Department of Justice:
(1) The denial of a license.
(2) The denial of an amendment to a license.
(3) The issuance of a license.
(4) The amendment of a license.
(5) The revocation of a license.
(c)(1) Commencing on or before January 1, 2000, and annually thereafter, each licensing authority shall submit to the Attorney General the total number of licenses issued to peace officers pursuant to Section 26170, and to judges pursuant to Section 26150 or 26155.
(2) The Attorney General shall collect and record the information submitted pursuant to this subdivision by county and licensing authority.
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Old 08-27-2016, 4:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quiet View Post
It's B.S. that CA DOJ BOF is not publishing up to date CCW issuance info every year.

Maybe submit a FOIA request to CA DOJ BOF for the info?

CA DOJ BOF CCW issuance count from 1987-2007.


Penal Code 26225
(a) A record of the following shall be maintained in the office of the licensing authority:
(1) The denial of a license.
(2) The denial of an amendment to a license.
(3) The issuance of a license.
(4) The amendment of a license.
(5) The revocation of a license.
(b) Copies of each of the following shall be filed immediately by the issuing officer or authority with the Department of Justice:
(1) The denial of a license.
(2) The denial of an amendment to a license.
(3) The issuance of a license.
(4) The amendment of a license.
(5) The revocation of a license.
(c)(1) Commencing on or before January 1, 2000, and annually thereafter, each licensing authority shall submit to the Attorney General the total number of licenses issued to peace officers pursuant to Section 26170, and to judges pursuant to Section 26150 or 26155.
(2) The Attorney General shall collect and record the information submitted pursuant to this subdivision by county and licensing authority.
Agree. Didn't the LASD recently come out say they did;t know exactly how many CCWs had been issued by the county that were till valid? Couples load of BS for political reasons by the Sheriff.
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Old 08-27-2016, 8:12 PM
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Nice work
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Old 08-27-2016, 9:42 PM
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How would I go about getting one in San Diego?


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Old 08-27-2016, 9:44 PM
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Originally Posted by PandaSauce View Post
How would I go about getting one in San Diego?
Prayer

Seriously... the Peruta case is all about your county.
Your best hope is if you live in a conservative city with a pro-2A police chief. He will have the authority to issue. It is rare, but does happen.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dantodd View Post
A just gov't will not be overthrown by force or violence because the people have no incentive to overthrow a just gov't. If a small minority of people attempt such an insurrection to grab power and enslave the people the RKBA of the whole is our insurance against their success.
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Old 08-27-2016, 9:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cokebottle View Post
Prayer

Seriously... the Peruta case is all about your county.
Your best hope is if you live in a conservative city with a pro-2A police chief. He will have the authority to issue. It is rare, but does happen.


I have a white collar job, and work 3 miles away from home so not all too bummed about it. Never really felt the need to carry, but would be nice to have the option.


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Old 08-28-2016, 10:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PandaSauce View Post
Never really felt the need to carry...


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Famous last words.
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Old 08-28-2016, 1:05 PM
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Great work! Thanks!
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Old 08-28-2016, 1:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PandaSauce View Post
How would I go about getting one in San Diego?
Good info here: http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/s...d.php?t=352786

Quote:
Originally Posted by PandaSauce View Post
I have a white collar job, and work 3 miles away from home so not all too bummed about it. Never really felt the need to carry, but would be nice to have the option.
Neither did, I'd guess, MOST of the 190+ CCW incidents I've linked in my sig line. Go thru those sometime. Pretty eye-opening.

You do go to other places than your job and home, right?

You need to go thru this thread to see how gunnies in SD Co are organizing and pushing some city PDs to issue CCWs despite the sheriff:
http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/s....php?t=1172570

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Famous last words.
Exactly! I don't care if you carry a .32acp/.380/.38 spl J-frame. Going thru that list will make you realize the main thing is to carry SOMETHING every frickin' day! You may be peaceful & law-abiding, but that gal having lunch in the next booth with her coworkers is about to have her crazy ex- show up and "teach her a lesson!" before "going out in a blaze of glory."
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Old 08-28-2016, 5:23 PM
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Nice work. I'm really glad I live in a green county.
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Old 08-28-2016, 9:17 PM
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Thanks OP for your time to put the pieces together, nice works
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Old 08-28-2016, 9:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cokebottle View Post
I'm thinking Shasta, and maybe a couple other "Jefferson" counties top the list for percentage.

Still, statewide, we are the 0.03%
Only 3 LTCs per 10,000 people? I think you're off by a factor of 100.
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Old 08-28-2016, 9:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CSACANNONEER View Post
Only 3 LTCs per 10,000 people? I think you're off by a factor of 100.
Ya, closer to 0.2%
40 million Californians, 70,000 LTC

Nationwide it's closer to 5%.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dantodd View Post
A just gov't will not be overthrown by force or violence because the people have no incentive to overthrow a just gov't. If a small minority of people attempt such an insurrection to grab power and enslave the people the RKBA of the whole is our insurance against their success.
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Old 08-28-2016, 10:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CSACANNONEER View Post
Only 3 LTCs per 10,000 people? I think you're off by a factor of 100.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cokebottle View Post
Ya, closer to 0.2%
40 million Californians, 70,000 LTC

Nationwide it's closer to 5%.
The article above says the "average" issuance per county is 3 for every 1000 people.

However when I take the number of CCW permits for 2014/2015 (only counting 2015 where info is available, using 2014 when no 2015 data is available) I come up with ~76,233 statewide. Out of a population of ~38,864,818 (everybody open your calculator app) that comes out to 0.001961496% of the population has permits. One could simply "round" that number up to 0.002%.

Thats 2 (or 1.961...) "thousandths" of 1%, thats far less than the 2 tenths of 1% quoted above.

All that being said, we know the numbers I am using are not particularly accurate since the DOJ either stopped tracking the numbers (doubtful) or stopped reporting the numbers to the public for political reasons (far more likely). Once again, if you actually have a permit in this sate, you really ARE special. For all the green on the map, there really are not that many people in this state with permits to carry.

What should not be lost is that DESPITE all the green and the light green on the map, something like 22,082,919.7 (MILLION) CA citizens (or ~56% of the population) have little to no chance of getting a permit in this state should they desire one.
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Old 08-28-2016, 11:38 PM
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Thanks for your effort!

Still sucks here in Santa Clara county.
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Old 08-28-2016, 11:39 PM
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The article above says the "average" issuance per county is 3 for every 1000 people.

However when I take the number of CCW permits for 2014/2015 (only counting 2015 where info is available, using 2014 when no 2015 data is available) I come up with ~76,233 statewide. Out of a population of ~38,864,818 (everybody open your calculator app) that comes out to 0.001961496% of the population has permits. One could simply "round" that number up to 0.002%.
Just FYI you just proved Cokebottle was right, .001961496 is not a percentage until you move the decimal 2 places to the right. Percent means per 100. So it would actually be .19%, rounded up to .2% like he stated.

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Old 08-29-2016, 6:37 AM
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The article above says the "average" issuance per county is 3 for every 1000 people.
Correction: for every 1,000 "Adults."

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Originally Posted by baggss View Post
However when I take the number of CCW permits for 2014/2015 (only counting 2015 where info is available, using 2014 when no 2015 data is available) I come up with ~76,233 statewide. Out of a population of ~38,864,818 (everybody open your calculator app) that comes out to 0.001961496% of the population has permits. One could simply "round" that number up to 0.002%.
You've got to reduce that by ~25% to eliminate those under 18 y.o. Recalculate and it rounds to 0.3%

Acc to John Lott, PhD, the current average in the USA is 6.06% of the adult pop.: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=2814691
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Old 08-29-2016, 7:19 AM
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Just FYI you just proved Cokebottle was right, .001961496 is not a percentage until you move the decimal 2 places to the right. Percent means per 100. So it would actually be .19%, rounded up to .2% like he stated.

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Originally Posted by Paladin View Post
Correction: for every 1,000 "Adults."

You've got to reduce that by ~25% to eliminate those under 18 y.o. Recalculate and it rounds to 0.3%

Acc to John Lott, PhD, the current average in the USA is 6.06% of the adult pop.: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=2814691
That makes sense, I was strictly looking at the population as a whole. Thanks for the Link!
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Old 08-29-2016, 7:25 AM
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My math works differently.

About 2 out of every 1000 Californians has a CCW permit. That's roughly 1 out of 500 people, infants, druggies, felons, and hookers included. My town of Ventura has about 100,000 people, so percentage wise, there should be about 2,000 CCW permit holders, which is about right.
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Old 08-29-2016, 7:48 AM
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My math works differently.

About 2 out of every 1000 Californians has a CCW permit. That's roughly 1 out of 500 people, infants, druggies, felons, and hookers included. My town of Ventura has about 100,000 people, so percentage wise, there should be about 2,000 CCW permit holders, which is about right.
The last best number for Ventura County is 1554 permits as of 31 Dec 2015. Thats out of a County population of 830,536 people. I'll let you do the math....
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Old 08-29-2016, 4:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Brother_Hesekiel View Post
My math works differently.

About 2 out of every 1000 Californians has a CCW permit. That's roughly 1 out of 500 people, infants, druggies, felons, and hookers included. My town of Ventura has about 100,000 people, so percentage wise, there should be about 2,000 CCW permit holders, which is about right.
Your mistake is the stats are usually given re. adults (i.e., 18 yo and older), such as in the vertical axis of this graphic:

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