Are Gold and Silver gonna keep going down?

[Creampuff]

Silver dropped to $22.73, thanks to the drop in gold. The premiums have to start lowering sooner or later.

[BCDavis]

Gold and silver aren't very good as investments.
They are only good for buying your way out of a situation,
if your country's currency becomes worthless.
Like in Argentina, etc.
You could theoretically use it to buy a plane ticket.

But if you plan on staying in the USA, when SHTF,
then gold and silver won't be worth as much as food,
bullets, water, and other supplies. If you have useful
things like seeds, generators, extra guns, ammo, etc,
those things will be worth way more than gold.

[Ripon83]

Politely I will disagree on almost all accounts.

1) As an investment I don't invest in gold or silver at these prices because I believe there is too much manipulation. But when I was buying in 89,90,91 I was thinking it would be good investmen and it was. I sold plenty at $42/$45 a few years ago and rolled it into a lot of firearms I always wanted at a fraction of the cost. I enjoyed a 700% gain in 20 years - good investment if you ask me.

2) In the "land of plenty" do you really think food is going to be that hard to come by - especially if "SHTF" has dramatically reduced our population? I can grow all of the food I need in a 160 square foot aquaponics bed. Some say it can be done in 40 square feet. I eat a lot so I quadrupled it. The same is true for guns and ammo - 300m guns and billions of round. After round one and a significant population reduction there will be more guns then people. Finally we are a capitalist society, its in our roots, and when people want to return to the norm they aren't going to want some printed "cash" they are going to want a tangible backing. Commerce requires a monetary system and I'm pretty sure the masses will return to the roots behind money - gold/silver/diamonds/land.

Originally Posted by BCDavis

Gold and silver aren't very good as investments.
They are only good for buying your way out of a situation,
if your country's currency becomes worthless.
Like in Argentina, etc.
You could theoretically use it to buy a plane ticket.

But if you plan on staying in the USA, when SHTF,
then gold and silver won't be worth as much as food,
bullets, water, and other supplies. If you have useful
things like seeds, generators, extra guns, ammo, etc,
those things will be worth way more than gold.

[BCDavis]

It really depends if you are talking about global SHTF, or smaller-scale SHTF.

Yes, if our entire economy collapsed, and stocks were worth nothing,
and numbers in a bank account meant nothing, and paper dollars were
worth nothing, then gold would be an excellent investment.

But if you compare it to stocks, bonds, real-estate, etc, it doesn't
have consistent growth. If you look at the inflation-adjusted values,
the price of gold actually went down, from 1934-1970. So as an
asset, if you bought gold any time in those 40 years, it would
have consistently gone down.

Gold tends to stay pretty much stable, except for the huge spikes,
when things go bad in other parts of the economy. It spiked after
the great depression, and It spiked in 1970-1980 due to the oil
crisis, inflation, etc. And it spiked again recently, when we had
our current recession/depression. But it tends to go back down
when things stabilize.

So yeah, if you bought gold any time from 1930-1970,
and sold it at one of the recent peaks, it was a great investment.
But there is the chance that after this panic dies down,
and gold prices drop, they might stay low for another 40
year stretch. With stocks, they tend to go up and down
more frequently, so you can decide when to pull your money out.
So if it's time to retire, you can wait for stocks to hit a high point,
and pull your money out. But if you put it all into gold,
and might have to wait 40 years for the next panic
to get some kind of a profit out of your investment.

I am not saying it's a bad investment.
It's just a long-term investment.

I also sold when this spike in prices hit.
If it goes back down to "normal" levels again, I might buy some more.
I agree it will have great value if/when things go bad again in the future.

I just tend to feel that either things will go on like normal,
or things will REALLY hit the fan. So if people are struggling
just to survive, they won't care about gold. They will want
your food, or your water, or your weapons, etc.

[Ripon83]

The only scenerio I see really bad for gold and silver are deflation. I have a hard time imagining deflation becoming a significant reality in a world where our nations conjures up $85 billion a month to buy its own over spending debt? I also have a hard time believing the US Dollar will remain the worlds reserve currency for my life time - 10 years maybe - but at some point the powers of Russia, China, and India will want that and make it happen - China is well on the way with efforts already in place.

If we deflate for a long period of time I can see gold and silver in continued decline in value. If we inflate at some point because our dollar is worth less than it is today - gold and silver will increase dramatically against a sad dollar.

[BruceR]

Ripon, I see both of your scenarios coming to pass within the next year or two. I expect to see continued deflation pressures for the time being, followed by serious inflation for years to come. With $1000 gold and $17 silver, we'll have our last, best opportunity to preserve wealth before the dollar gets shred to pieces.

[Bucks n Ducks]

I see alot of scenarios where buying gold or silver (junk, coin, or small bars) now would be a good "investment". I started a thread last week about why always SHTF. My point in that question in reference to gold or silver is based on scenarios, say similar to collapse in Argentina.
Put it this way, if times get real tough and bank accounts are just numbers on paper w/ worthless currency why wouldn't people take gold or silver in exchange for goods or services.
In a semi functioning society gold or silver are the logical currency. As society and the economy begins to normalize would you rather have a pile of gold and silver or tons of rice and expiring cans of tuna.

[problemchild]

Spot on!

Even if the USA became Argentina, and I think it will, gold and silver will be worth more than ever. People around the world will exit the dollar and buy g/s. The JP-Morgs will be out of business and g/s wont be manipulated so it will skyrocket. The business guy with a jet will trade "things" for gold/silver and fly the g/s to Sweden/ Canada/Etc where he will cash it in for more stuff to trade here for g/s.

How much did silver sell for when I was a kid? $1.50 Now $22.50 a 15 fold increase today and a 30 fold a few months back when it hit 45/ounce

Lets say a guy sold his silver at a 5 fold increase before the election and bought 22LR at .015ea and sold for .20c each. A 1,000 dollar purchase of silver bought at 9 then sold at 45, use the cash to buy 22LR and sell at .20 on GB turned that 1,000 dollars into 66,000 dollars. Not bad!

Originally Posted by Ripon83

Politely I will disagree on almost all accounts.

1) As an investment I don't invest in gold or silver at these prices because I believe there is too much manipulation. But when I was buying in 89,90,91 I was thinking it would be good investmen and it was. I sold plenty at $42/$45 a few years ago and rolled it into a lot of firearms I always wanted at a fraction of the cost. I enjoyed a 700% gain in 20 years - good investment if you ask me.

2) In the "land of plenty" do you really think food is going to be that hard to come by - especially if "SHTF" has dramatically reduced our population? I can grow all of the food I need in a 160 square foot aquaponics bed. Some say it can be done in 40 square feet. I eat a lot so I quadrupled it. The same is true for guns and ammo - 300m guns and billions of round. After round one and a significant population reduction there will be more guns then people. Finally we are a capitalist society, its in our roots, and when people want to return to the norm they aren't going to want some printed "cash" they are going to want a tangible backing. Commerce requires a monetary system and I'm pretty sure the masses will return to the roots behind money - gold/silver/diamonds/land.

[Ripon83]

In regards to dealer mark up. I was 19, a police officer, and on pay day I'd go to a local coin store and buy my favored Canadian Silver Maple leaf. I thought it was the ideal coin because it had $5.00 Canadian face value and even though that was only $3.5 American at the time I was only paying $5.25 an ounce plus the $1 the dealer mark up - $6.25. After a few trips I bought 5 and the mark up was the same. I skipped a few weeks, went in and bought 10 and the $1.00 mark up was the same. I passed for a month and went in and bought 20 and he still demanded that $1 per coin. I was kind of miffed, and of course I pleaded with him for a "deal" since I was buying 20 at a time. No deal. After 3 years of this and acquiring more than a few hundred ounces (no Internet back then) I gave up angry at my dealer for his "dollar" mark up.

It really bugs me today I let that get in the way of probably buying 200 - 300 more ounces during that time. That's why when people get "bugged" by a dealer mark up on it I cringe. Later in life as retailer for a short while I realize now what I wanted - the dealer to lose his back side to save me a quarter or so. I didn't care he had rent, utilities, insurance, and not too mention training for the 1911 Colt he had.

Two years or so ago when it peaked over 45 I sold 15 ounces. I managed to get my coveted ppks/22LR that I always wanted and 4 bricks of 22LR from Cabellas with their plastic ammo "can." That cost me $94.5 in silver.

[BCDavis]

I guess the key is to know when prices are "fair" and when they are on a spike.

No different from the ammo situation right now.

Like I was saying, if you bought gold when it was fairly priced,
anywhere from 1930-1970, then you could have made quite
a substantial profit, by selling it at it's recent peak. There were
decades and decades where the price of gold was fair and stable.
Those were the years when you should have bought gold,
knowing things may eventually turn bad economically.

It's just not good to buy things in the middle of a peak,
during a panic, etc.

[Creampuff]

Originally Posted by BCDavis

I guess the key is to know when prices are "fair" and when they are on a spike.

....

It's just not good to buy things in the middle of a peak,
during a panic, etc.

And that's the million dollar question right now. How much further will it drop? I'm not quite willing to put a ton of money into precious metals, but the flip side, I don't think it is going to go back to the $5 lows again. Right now I'll buy a little here and there, and ride it out knowing it might drop a little more, and that 10 to 15 years from now I'll make up for my losses.

But really I'm not looking at this as a true investment, more as a way not to waste money on things that lose value the moment you walk out the store (ie TV and other toys)

[BCDavis]

I think it spiked because of the collapse of the real estate market, and all the unemployment, made people think a total financial collapse was imminent. But our economy keeps creeping along.

[ewarmour]

I bought some silver today. It feels much more real in my hand than dollar bills.

The "recovery" is a myth. The economy is propped up by low interest rates and 85 billion a month in fresh new dollars (QE). When QE stops or interest rates go up...

The federal reserve is the illuminati, they are accountable to no one.

[Creampuff]

Let's bump this up again.

Looks like $21.68 today for silver. I would think about buying more, but the premiums are still be a bit high for AES. Certainly lower than the last two months though.

[SonofWWIIDI]

Let me go dig out the old crystal ball, I'll get back to you!

[Sunday]

Originally Posted by fivebyfive

JMHO...but in a realy prolonged SHTF thing...gold and silver won't be worth a nickel...sorry for the pun. I really think and still maintain that skills, seeds and ammo will be the only worthwhile "currency". Barter can't hurt either.

Gold is a great currency as it has a known value "not price". The price we pay is like any other purchase. Look at the prices people are paying for ammo these days as compared to last year. What about the housing prices and the stock prices. I am not into gold or other precious metals but it is wise to buy when the price is low!

[Sunday]

Originally Posted by ewarmour

I bought some silver today. It feels much more real in my hand than dollar bills.

The "recovery" is a myth. The economy is propped up by low interest rates and 85 billion a month in fresh new dollars (QE). When QE stops or interest rates go up...

The federal reserve is the illuminati, they are accountable to no one.

They serve the beast!

[sixoclockhold]

Just choose: 1 oz. generic round of silver or 3 boxes of Stingers

[IMG][/IMG]

[Cmpaycheck]

Buy silver!

[Baboosh]

I've always said I'll buy when it hits $20, looks like I need to start getting my funds ready

[TheChief]

Good luck finding any place that will sell it without a 7+$ fee per ounce.

[TheChief]

Disregard, APMEX has some good prices as I write this...

SPOT is 21.29 for an ounce of silver

APMEX has 2013 ASE $2.59 over spot for any quantity! - http://www.apmex.com/product/72459/2...american-eagle

[johnny1290]

wow go figure Apmex looks pretty good! They want $101 or so per roll of roosevelt silver dimes. Cheaper than ebay , which is around $114.

Coinflation.com says at today's value a roll of dimes is worth $77.

I think I paid $130 / roll on ebay when silver was $38? in Dec., whatever it was.

I provide this just to for historical reference and to save someone the hassle of looking it up.

Those rounds at $2.50 over spot look downright cheap. I just wonder how hard they are to sell when it comes time? I like the rolls of dimes because they're easily determined to be of a certain value by the layman.

FWIW Ferfal in his book said 'we buy gold' dealers will be plentiful during economic collapse, so maybe I could unload them there if necessary. Scared to think of what they offer! LOL

[glockman19]

Gold DOWN today 5% or $77 to below $1,300


Silver under $20

[2112]

Fellow Calgunners, I do beleive the time is VERY near to back up the truck and grab as much of those precious metals as you can !! ( just be prepared to hold on to it for at least 3-5 years before flipping if that is yer game plan)

[Baboosh]

Wow, with the big drop today I am in buying mode. I am going to watch it and see how low it goes and pick up a lot.

[sixoclockhold]

I would be cautious here buying Gold/Silver, maybe start an average in program but with China slowing, Euro trashed and now the US housing market about to snap, we could see a lot lower prices should we head into a real double dip.

[QQQ]

wow I was very wrong about how low the prices would go.

[QQQ]

Originally Posted by TheChief

Disregard, APMEX has some good prices as I write this...

SPOT is 21.29 for an ounce of silver

APMEX has 2013 ASE $2.59 over spot for any quantity! - http://www.apmex.com/product/72459/2...american-eagle

Provident Metals is cheaper than APMEX as of right now

http://www.providentmetals.com/2013-...lion-coin.html

[glockman19]

Originally Posted by 2112

Fellow Calgunners, I do beleive the time is VERY near to back up the truck and grab as much of those precious metals as you can !! ( just be prepared to hold on to it for at least 3-5 years before flipping if that is yer game plan)

I disagree. I'm out of Precious Metals and into Volitality. I'm holding Sep $18 calls, Oct $19 Calls, and November $20 Calls. May buy Dec $18 puts later today or tomorrow.

Originally Posted by sixoclockhold

I would be cautious here buying Gold/Silver, maybe start an average in program but with China slowing, Euro trashed and now the US housing market about to snap, we could see a lot lower prices should we head into a real double dip.

YES be very cautious. Slowing manufacturing, low inflation not good for PM's

Originally Posted by QQQ

wow I was very wrong about how low the prices would go.

I see Silver trading as low as $12-$15 in the next 6 months.

[glockman19]

Originally Posted by glockman19

I agree...Gold to $1,200 and Silver to $20...possibly lower over the next month or two. I see a bottom at the end of May early June.

My call from 2 mos ago...Just a reminder.

[sixoclockhold]

Glock I agree that $12-$15 is a real possibility. I think Gold breaks down below the $1,000 mark. I will start an average in process at that level and Silver $19, which was my thinking 8 months ago.

[deebix]

BTFD, Thats all I have to say. Sooner or later our monopoly FED debt paper receipts (dollars) will be worth 0.

[dadoody]

Silver keeps dropping, and I keep buying.

I have been buying in small increments regularly since since reached the $22 spot price. It's currently slightly below $20 now, and I just went out and got some 2013 eagles from Liberty CPM in Irvine. $24 each after taxes and such.

They're so purdy O_O

I'm not buying gold yet. Watching and waiting for the bottom.

Edit: I agree with that Glockman guy above though. Metal prices will continue to drop, and I do believe there will be a hard hard crash, especially if the Fed decides to cut the liquidity injection into the market. The markets' are like a heroin addict right now. They're only hobbling along and trying to make it through to get their next fix, but when the supply runs out, the withdrawals will be harsh.

I'm sure the Fed knows this and is going to slow ease out. In the meantime, I think it would behoove us to pick up real estate, metals on the cheap, pick up a LOT of ammo, and whatever long guns you've been wanting to buy, because the game changes next year for us in California.

For the worse.

I want out.

[glockman19]

PM's took a real kick in the nuts today.

Gold: $1,280 DOWN $93.80
GLD: $123.59 DOWN $7.00 - 5.36%
Silver: $19.55 DOWN $2.06
SLV: $18.97 DOWN $1.63 - 7.94%

My VIX options were all UP 30% with little to no volume. ALL are in-the-money. I bought at $3.00 and have an order in to sell the Sept $18 Calls @ $5.10, which means a VIX @ 24 in the next 30 days or a S&P of 1,511 or lower...tomorrow, Quadruple Witching Day so the market should open DOWN with much volitility. I wouldn't buy into this market. We're 5% down from high's and I see another 3-5% decline before it pops again.

Predicitions:
Lower June-July, sideways maybe a little higher August-September, End of September-Early October, another correction, Lackluster November, December Rally...until Fed reduces Bond Buying and rising interest rates...Then the Risk is on again.

[ptusa]

Originally Posted by glockman19

My call from 2 mos ago...Just a reminder.

If they stop the downward slide at or around those points then you are a visionary...if they keep going down you will have to turn in your crystal ball.

[glockman19]

Originally Posted by ptusa

If they stop the downward slide at or around those points then you are a visionary...if they keep going down you will have to turn in your crystal ball.

It hit my mark within my timeframe...and now I'm re-evaluating...downward. No need to turn in anything.

[problemchild]

Originally Posted by TheChief

Good luck finding any place that will sell it without a 7+$ fee per ounce.

I have a shop that is 1.25 over spot

[TheChief]

Originally Posted by problemchild

I have a shop that is 1.25 over spot

Dang, wish shops in my neck of the woods would do that. I called four shops yesterday, and even with the falling prices they are sticking to $7 over. Back when it was just a couple over I would buy 2-3 every weekend. Not any more with those fees.

Saving up for a bulk buy online.

[The War Wagon]

Peanut butter buyin' time - peanut butter buyin' time - peanut butter buyin' time!