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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #1  
Old 05-31-2018, 10:45 AM
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Default Prepping for Economic Downturn

What are your strategies for another downturn? This can be either:

1) Normal economic cycle downturn

2) Major economic disruption (for example a trade war)

3) Complete economic collapse (hyperinflation of the dollar, unemployment over 50%, gov defaults on national debt, etc)

Label which particular economic scenario you are providing answer(s) to.
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Old 05-31-2018, 8:12 PM
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IMO inflation will be a real issue. The Fefal blog talks about the hyper inflation and economic collapse in Argentina. Is that possible here? I would suggest that if we get to that stage here it will truly be a TEOTWAWKI event, as life will be cheap.
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Old 06-01-2018, 12:11 AM
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Been in couple so-called 'economic downturns' -- one was during the Gulf War, and another was the Dot-Com burst.

From my experience, people who had good skills and work ethics, would always find work to do. Might need to look harder, work harder, and learn harder; yet chaos brew opportunities.

Actually, when looked back, somewhat I did enjoy the downturns -- People were more humble, businesses offered more valuable products/services, streets/freeways were less crowded, families focused more on core than fun.

We are Americans, rebuild is one of our unique gifts. A downturn once a while is like a good workout, it makes our muscles grow stronger after.
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Old 06-01-2018, 1:05 AM
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I am waiting for the next downturn because pre-75 car prices are out of control.
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Old 06-01-2018, 2:27 PM
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My basic preps for each scenario would be:

Scenario 1) Cash is king, position as a buyer for a buyers market

Scenario 2) Depending on the situation (isolated to american economy or global) either take a job overseas until things settle down, or remain in the US and liquidate my overseas holdings to shore up finances

Scenario 3) Scenario 2 action plan, plus deployment of long term food/shelter security measures.
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Old 06-01-2018, 7:42 PM
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A Weimar type of collapse (or Argentine collapse) is not too likely. There are too many safeguards in the system and the whole world dies if America's economy collapses so its in too many nation's interest.OTOH A nuke leveling NYC, DC or LA is quite possibly a deal breaker. If that happens someone wants to push everything over the brink and that could do it
Regardless Keep cash, PM's and barterables in your plan.
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Old 06-01-2018, 7:57 PM
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The key is to stay liquid. Don't spend all your $$ during upturns. Downturns are the best time to buy. Be it property, quads, guns, gold or cars cash will rule. The other key is making sure you can manage your cash flow during downturns. If you can barely make your house payment during good times you gonna hate downturns.

But the best thing will be to avoid downturns. Pence 2024
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Old 06-01-2018, 8:13 PM
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Live well below your means and be a great neighbor.
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Old 06-05-2018, 2:33 PM
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Live well below your means and be a great neighbor.
Well said.
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Old 06-05-2018, 5:43 PM
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ZERO personal debt. Assets spread around, highly unlikely they could all be hurt at the same time.
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Old 06-05-2018, 6:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mountain Max View Post
What are your strategies for another downturn? This can be either:



1) Normal economic cycle downturn



2) Major economic disruption (for example a trade war)



3) Complete economic collapse (hyperinflation of the dollar, unemployment over 50%, gov defaults on national debt, etc)



Label which particular economic scenario you are providing answer(s) to.


1. Ride it out. Look for rebound opportunities.
2. Make sure your trailing investment stops are up to date . Hoard cash and wait for a rebound to reinvest. (If you hadnít bought all this junk from China, you wouldnít be in this trade war mess).
3. Have Physical Gold and silver in your possession (you wonít be able to get to a bank safe deposit box). Stocks, Bonds, Fiat cash will be worthless. Donít bug out, bug in. Circle the wagons. Strength in reliable numbers, trust no one else. Assume Breakdown in rule of law. Refuse compliance if youíre at risk. Be prepared to barter. Donít run out of ammo.
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  #12  
Old 06-10-2018, 3:29 PM
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Trump is in command, we good.


Wait till a dem is in charge directed by soros, stock up
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Old 06-10-2018, 4:14 PM
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Cowbells. Im heavily invested in cowbells! We gotta have more cowbells!
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Old 06-10-2018, 8:14 PM
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I see a lot of reasons to be very wary of the economy.
That said I've sat on the sidelines of the markets while they've gone up 30%. There is reason to be concerned.
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Old 06-10-2018, 8:48 PM
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Just being in good financial shape will prep you for downturns. Diversification, financial sophistication, etc.

For baby steps:
Read "Millionaire Next Door" and "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing"

One teaches you how many rich people get rich (for many it is more saving more rather than making more money) and the other lets you know how to invest in the markets without skill or wasting too much time at it (indexing at the lowest fees possible).

Have 6 months emergency funds on hand, Max out 401k and/or IRA, Don't listen to the financial punditry and buy or sell a particular product or get out of the market at a particular time. Slow and steady wins the race.

Once you've gotten that far you should be a bit savvy about money and hopefully a good nut.. you can keep your liquid cash between 5-10%. 5% when times are bad (you are spending the other 5% on all the great deals) and 10% when times are getting overheated (though this condition can last for a long time). Rebalancing the portfolio will also get you more of the things "on sale" during these periods.

Also learn "good debt" vs "bad debt" there is little good debt but in general a mortgage and student loans (assuming you finish your degree, it is in a worthwhile field and you didn't spend too much) are good debt. Good debt also helps counteract inflation as you get to pay off that debt with cheaper future dollars if inflation heats up too much.

Keep it simple, invest automatically in cheap index funds and don't listen to what people say about getting out or in. Save until it hurts and don't bet big with a lot of funds, a big saved nut is hard to get.. don't waste it.
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Old 06-12-2018, 4:21 AM
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More than a single retirement plan. More than 3... (Is my area the new Orange county, price ^^^?)
Cali Exodus sounds GREAT.
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  #17  
Old 06-14-2018, 12:30 AM
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Deutsche Bank stock is collapsing, was $20/share 6 months ago, and $11.43 Wednesday morning (think Lehman) because Deutsche Bank still has north of $50 Trillion in bank derivatives and is approaching the zero stock price boundary (like Lehman.) (DB stock was $161/share at one time.)

There was a Dave Janda/Greg Hunter interview from yesterday. This may or may not be to your personal taste (Link at bottom.) Describes a lot of the economic problems + DOJ IG report.

The critical part for the Janda/Hunter reset discussion, was:
"Deutsche Bank has already imploded."
Greg Hunter received many personal messages to that effect.

Deutsche Bank layoffs in the US are expected to total 1400 staff.
Profits fell 80% to $146 Million dollars last quarter.

Once the EU starts to unravel, the mountain of false financial reporting from 2008 (i.e. fantasy bond pricing), will lead to an extremely rapid decline and death.

This morning Zerohedge identified over $1 Trillion dollars being repatriated from Southern EU countries: Spain, Italy, France, Austria, and Greece to North: Germany, Finland, and the Netherlands.

This money flight will QUICKLY collapse the Italian and Spanish banks! and set off a derivatives bubble (that destroys Deutsche Bank, a Huge holder of Italian bonds.) And the whole economic system will need to be reset, debt wiped out, and the the system shuts down as ALL the banks are daisy chained together with market to fantasy asset pricing.

This next 'downturn' will be worse that 2008. WHY?
Debt was unpayable in 2008 WHEN THE SYSTEM BROKE, the Federal Reserve lent $16 TRILLION dollars out in 2008 - 2010, and now World Central Banks have added $72 Trillion MORE debt in the past 10 years into a bankrupt financial system.... That won't work.

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-threat-of-contagion/
From Jim Rickards:
Quote:
“In 1998 Wall Street bailed out a hedge fund (LTCM for Russia bond default.) In 2008 the central banks bailed out Wall Street. In 2018, who’s going to bail out the central banks?”

“Each crisis gets bigger than the one before. Each bailout gets bigger than the one before. If the central banks are the eye of the storm (now), if they’re the institutions we’re losing in – what good is the guarantee? It’s like getting insurance from AIG in October of 2008.
Be prepared for a system shutdown and reset. Jim Rickard's books throughly describe establish of a worldwide Bail In system planned by the IMF, whole system exists NOW.

Blade Gunners recommendation is pretty solid.

Quote:
1. Ride it out. Look for rebound opportunities. (ADD: Be out of debt s much as possible.)

2. Make sure your trailing investment stops are up to date . Hoard cash and wait for a rebound to reinvest. (If you hadn’t bought all this junk from China, you wouldn’t be in this trade war mess).

3. Have Physical Gold and silver in your possession (you won’t be able to get to a bank safe deposit box). Stocks, Bonds, Fiat cash will be worthless. Don’t bug out, bug in. Circle the wagons. Strength in reliable numbers, trust no one else. Assume Breakdown in rule of law. Refuse compliance if you’re at risk. Be prepared to barter. Don’t run out of ammo.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...any-full-swing

Capital Flight To Germany In Full Swing (Chart at Link.)

Greg Hunter Interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rri-Ngj8QoE&t=4s

Last edited by bv141; 06-14-2018 at 12:45 AM..
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  #18  
Old 06-14-2018, 12:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Foebia View Post
Trump is in command, we good.
Trump is best at bankruptcies, and we are approaching a big one....Trump is the best person to be in charge for a national bankruptcy however the American people may not realize or appreciate the effort.

Presidential Morons piled on debt since Reagan (and yes, I know that Reagan added $2 Trillion to the deficit, but won the Cold war. Obama added $9 Trillion and the Federal Reserve added 3.5 Trillion in debt during Obama's term and nothing to show for..)
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Old 06-14-2018, 4:55 AM
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Originally Posted by eman_308 View Post
Cowbells. Im heavily invested in cowbells! We gotta have more cowbells!

Long as they're made of silver...


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Old 06-18-2018, 10:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The War Wagon View Post
Long as they're made of silver...


Yukon Cornelius... Didn't limit himself to just silver...
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...Either that or use the holy hand grenade of Antioch.
"That's what governments are for - get in a man's way." - Captain Malcolm 'Mal' Reynolds
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  #21  
Old 06-18-2018, 12:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mountain Max View Post
What are your strategies for another downturn? This can be either:

1) Normal economic cycle downturn

2) Major economic disruption (for example a trade war)

3) Complete economic collapse (hyperinflation of the dollar, unemployment over 50%, gov defaults on national debt, etc)

Label which particular economic scenario you are providing answer(s) to.
1. Unless you're under 28, you've already lived through worse. Normal economic downturns are called recessions (with no modifier like "The Great"). You probably won't notice much, except a decline in your mutual funds and bad economic news in the papers. If you're unlucky, you'll find yourself on unemployment. How to prepare? Keep 6 month cash reserves and hope you don't lose your job. Live within your means and be prepared to reduce and defer expenses when the recession hits.

2. If you're over 28, you lived through this about 10 years ago as an adult. It's now called "The Great Recession." I would categorize "The Great Inflation or The Gas Crisis" in the mid-1970s (when I was a kid) and obviously "The Great Depression" in this category as well. You can prepare for this by increasing cash reserves and/or precious metal reserves. The best advice is to make sure you have the 6 months cash reserves mentioned above (even more helps), hope you don't lose your job, and immediately hunker down by paring and deferring expenses when you see the writing on the wall. Some of the time, you can see the writing on the wall, if you're smart, pessimistic, and don't buy into the mantra that "It's different this time." The Roaring 20s and a trade war came before the Great Depression. The housing boom came before the Great Recession. The Great Inflation was preceded by unprecedented federal spending and deficits.

3. We've never gone through this in the U.S. Unemployment peaked in the Great Depression at around 20%. I'm not planning for this, except as part of my other planning (which includes a year's worth of food reserves for non-economic emergencies).
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  #22  
Old 06-18-2018, 12:53 PM
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Thanks for the info on Deutsche Bank. Troubling that itís been kept so under the radar.

-W
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