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  #1  
Old 12-25-2017, 4:32 PM
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Default The rise of the "Other" party.



The graph above shows the number of registrations for each party start from 1910 till 2016. This data was collected from the following source,

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/...ticipation.pdf

For years it seemed the Democratic and Republican parties were growing similarly with a majority Democratic registrations. In 1972 you can see an increase in registration, before Nixon was elected. It shows what I would expect, there were increases in all three political parties. In 1972 you also see an increase in eligible voters which also makes sense. You see the same thing happening in 1992 when Bill Clinton was elected. The registrations seems to follow each other to some degree.

In 2008 when Obama was elected something odd happens. You see a fairly tiny bump in eligible voters, and a big spike in Democratic and Other party voters, and Republican voters remains basically flat. Then with Hillary in 2016 you see something very similar, only the Republican registrations actually decrease.

The other major thing I noticed is the amazing rise in "Other" party voters. This group includes every other party not Dem/Rep. The largest of which is called "No Party Preference" which is what makes this group the fastest growing. The "Other" party recently over took the Republican party in California, as you can see the green line crosses over the red one in 2016.

I think the "Other" party are people who are disillusioned with both parties. Some far right , some far left, and some center.

I myself am an NPP voter. I've never liked either party, and I don't want to be grouped into either one.
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Old 12-25-2017, 5:00 PM
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Originally Posted by abinsinia View Post
I think the "Other" party are people who are disillusioned with both parties. Some far right , some far left, and some center.
This is actually a problem.
3rd party candidates effectively "steal" votes from the main party which most closely matches their core drive.
1992, Ross Perot took 18% of the popular vote. He did not carry a single state, but he took enough votes from enough states to hand the election to Clinton. Even California would have gone to Bush-41 had Perot not been a factor.

Ralph Nader could have been a factor in Gore's loss of Florida, which handed the 2000 election to Bush-43.

In 2000, the impact of the 3rd party was not significant on a national level, but in 1992, Perot's 18% added to Bush's 37% would have been 55% to Clinton's 43%.

It could be argued that Perot's influence resulted in the majority of the American people getting what they did not want.

Had Sanders run as an independent in 2016, Hillary's loss would have been so significant so as to eliminate any question of the legitimacy of Trump's win, however, it very well could have resulted in percentages more similar to 1992 with Trump significantly below 50%.



A 3-party system doesn't work for this reason. 4, 5, or 6 established parties? Absolutely.
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A just gov't will not be overthrown by force or violence because the people have no incentive to overthrow a just gov't. If a small minority of people attempt such an insurrection to grab power and enslave the people the RKBA of the whole is our insurance against their success.
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Old 12-25-2017, 5:01 PM
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I've been registered as a Republican, Democrat, and also independent. While I am a conservative voter, I register in a fashion that will allow me to vote in which ever primary I want to try and affect.
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Old 12-25-2017, 5:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Cokebottle View Post
This is actually a problem.
3rd party candidates effectively "steal" votes from the main party which most closely matches their core drive.
I'm not sure this is what's happening. The vast majority are No Party Preference, but I think they mostly vote Democratic. There are very few NPP candidates to fracture the 2 major parties.
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Old 12-25-2017, 5:23 PM
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the only thing the other party will do is continue Democrat dominance throughout statewide elections.

In other words 2A will be dead by the end of Newsom's first year in office.

Doesn't matter the litigation the law will be in full effect until a court sees otherwise. So in reality it will be DOA very soon.

Be ready it's coming it will be a Sh*t storm that will rival hurricane Katrina and super storm Sandy combined.
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Old 12-25-2017, 5:48 PM
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Originally Posted by abinsinia View Post
There are very few NPP candidates to fracture the 2 major parties.
Agreed, currently very few.... and that is the catch-22.
Unless and until one of the 3rd parties is able to fracture more than a small percentage of one or both of the major parties, they will remain an electoral nobody, and statistically only rarely significant.
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Originally Posted by dantodd View Post
A just gov't will not be overthrown by force or violence because the people have no incentive to overthrow a just gov't. If a small minority of people attempt such an insurrection to grab power and enslave the people the RKBA of the whole is our insurance against their success.
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Old 12-25-2017, 5:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Cokebottle View Post
Agreed, currently very few.... and that is the catch-22.
Unless and until one of the 3rd parties is able to fracture more than a small percentage of one or both of the major parties, they will remain an electoral nobody, and statistically only rarely significant.
In terms of the NPP candidates they will be insignificant , but the voters are not insignificant .. There are more of those voters than Republican voters, so the way those people vote would be interesting to find out.
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Old 12-25-2017, 7:58 PM
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In terms of the NPP candidates they will be insignificant , but the voters are not insignificant .. There are more of those voters than Republican voters, so the way those people vote would be interesting to find out.
they vote Democrat. It's that simple.
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Public Safety Chairman Reggie Jones Sawyer, D-Los Angeles said, “This is California; we don’t pay too much attention to the Constitution,”
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Old 12-26-2017, 6:34 AM
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they vote Democrat. It's that simple.
Not entirely .. they are swing voters, they are moderates ..
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Old 12-26-2017, 7:25 AM
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The “No Party Preference/Other” voters may have an interest in reducing state taxes now that the federal government won’t be allowing a deduction for them. If the GOP can rally around electable candidates and stay focused on taxes as their primary issue, they have a real chance to make significant gains in the next election cycle.
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Old 12-26-2017, 10:55 AM
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The “No Party Preference/Other” voters may have an interest in reducing state taxes now that the federal government won’t be allowing a deduction for them. If the GOP can rally around electable candidates and stay focused on taxes as their primary issue, they have a real chance to make significant gains in the next election cycle.
I would agree .. Newsom is the candidate who will tax you into oblivion, he's backing free community college and single-payer health care which I don't see how those wouldn't queue up with massive income tax increases.

In addition there are petitions circulating right now to repeal the gas tax increase, which I would hope will end up on the 2018 ballot. So you'll end up with lots of upset people voting to repeal taxes, if they also connect Newsom to tax increases I think NPP's would vote against him.
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Old 12-26-2017, 8:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Mayor McRifle View Post
The “No Party Preference/Other” voters may have an interest in reducing state taxes now that the federal government won’t be allowing a deduction for them. If the GOP can rally around electable candidates and stay focused on taxes as their primary issue, they have a real chance to make significant gains in the next election cycle.
Meanwhile, the wealthy were lined up in the Fairfax district today to pre-pay their property taxes for next year so they can deduct them on their 2017 taxes.
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Originally Posted by dantodd View Post
A just gov't will not be overthrown by force or violence because the people have no incentive to overthrow a just gov't. If a small minority of people attempt such an insurrection to grab power and enslave the people the RKBA of the whole is our insurance against their success.
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Old 12-26-2017, 11:51 PM
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Voters are the problem not parties or politicians. Parties and politicians are carried by the people that endorse them with their vote.

A long time ago it was made clear to me that people sacrificing to idols and voting for politicians are actually doing the same thing. The idol woshipers sacrafice their time, money or goods, the voters actually sacrifice their souls and integrity.
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Old 12-27-2017, 7:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chris View Post
they vote Democrat. It's that simple.
Quote:
Originally Posted by abinsinia View Post
Not entirely .. they are swing voters, they are moderates ..
Dang!! I've been a registered non-partisan voter for around 55 years. I'm a Pro-Constitutionalist, I'm hopefully a common sense kinda guy... there's always two sides to every story..., I'm a conservative, and I generally vote a Republican ticket, but not always. Sometimes it's the lesser of two evils.. So I guess I'm a loner in a sea of Demo's and Moderates.

The difference between a Liberal and a Conservative is....
A Liberal has nothing to loose....

Where are we now??

From bondage to spiritual faith,
From spiritual faith to great courage,
From courage to liberty,
From liberty to abundance,
From abundance to selfishness,
From selfishness to complacency,
From complacency to apathy,
From apathy to dependency,
From dependency back again to bondage."
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Old 12-27-2017, 7:28 PM
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Meanwhile, the wealthy were lined up in the Fairfax district today to pre-pay their property taxes for next year so they can deduct them on their 2017 taxes.
I heard about that today. I already paid mine for this year. Next year will be the same. Is there something different? I have heard something about February this tax plan going into effect.

There is so much BS on the net and news about this it's hard to tell the difference.
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Public Safety Chairman Reggie Jones Sawyer, D-Los Angeles said, “This is California; we don’t pay too much attention to the Constitution,”
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Old 12-27-2017, 8:22 PM
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I heard about that today. I already paid mine for this year. Next year will be the same. Is there something different? I have heard something about February this tax plan going into effect.

There is so much BS on the net and news about this it's hard to tell the difference.
The new plan kicks in for 2018. You can deduct your 2018 property taxes only if you pay before Jan 1 *and* you have already received your bill.

State and local taxes will be limited to a combined 10k deduction under the signed plan. Mortgage interest is capped at 500k... unsure if that is only for new loans or if it impacts current loans (current limit is 1m)

So if your property taxes are 10k for the year and your state income tax is 15k, paying your taxes for 2018 now will allow you to take that 10k deduction on your 2017 taxes, and you'll still be able to deduct 10k of your 15k state taxes.
If you wait and pay your 2018 property taxes in 2018, then you'll only be able to take a total of 10k in deductions.

My tax comes due in May and November, but it's only $1300 total for the year so no big deal here.
I checked my pay stub today and so far I've paid in 7k in State income tax, so state and property combined, I'll still be below $10k, so my S&L tax deductions won't change.
My mortgage is only 200k, so the mortgage interest will still be 100% deductible.

The question will be, will the doubling of the personal exemption end up being more than my mortgage interest and income/property taxes... Under this new plan, I just might pay less if I don't itemize.
If both my wife and I get a $24k personal exemption, then it will absolutely be a HUGE tax cut once the new brackets are added in.

I just might end up filing a 1040EZ for the first time in 40 years
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Originally Posted by dantodd View Post
A just gov't will not be overthrown by force or violence because the people have no incentive to overthrow a just gov't. If a small minority of people attempt such an insurrection to grab power and enslave the people the RKBA of the whole is our insurance against their success.

Last edited by Cokebottle; 12-27-2017 at 8:26 PM..
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Old 12-27-2017, 8:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Cokebottle View Post
The new plan kicks in for 2018. You can deduct your 2018 property taxes only if you pay before Jan 1 *and* you have already received your bill.

State and local taxes will be limited to a combined 10k deduction under the signed plan. Mortgage interest is capped at 500k... unsure if that is only for new loans or if it impacts current loans (current limit is 1m)

So if your property taxes are 10k for the year and your state income tax is 15k, paying your taxes for 2018 now will allow you to take that 10k deduction on your 2017 taxes, and you'll still be able to deduct 10k of your 15k state taxes.
If you wait and pay your 2018 property taxes in 2018, then you'll only be able to take a total of 10k in deductions.

My tax comes due in May and November, but it's only $1300 total for the year so no big deal here.
I checked my pay stub today and so far I've paid in 7k in State income tax, so state and property combined, I'll still be below $10k, so my S&L tax deductions won't change.
My mortgage is only 200k, so the mortgage interest will still be 100% deductible.

The question will be, will the doubling of the personal exemption end up being more than my mortgage interest and income/property taxes... Under this new plan, I just might pay less if I don't itemize.
If both my wife and I get a $24k personal exemption, then it will absolutely be a HUGE tax cut once the new brackets are added in.

I just might end up filing a 1040EZ for the first time in 40 years
I'm single so I think the new deduction is 12k. I do get to keep my mortgage deduction mine is way under the 500k and was when i did it. so no worries there.

Not sure if i'll hit the 12k with both of my retirement for work and military and property taxes. So did we lose the deduction for property taxes all together or what?

What I do know is less money will be taken out of my check but it doesn't matter anyway California took that money in gas taxes and registration fees.
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Public Safety Chairman Reggie Jones Sawyer, D-Los Angeles said, “This is California; we don’t pay too much attention to the Constitution,”
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contact the governor
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Old 12-27-2017, 9:00 PM
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So did we lose the deduction for property taxes all together or what?
The final combined resolved plan retained 7 brackets (but lowered them), and allows for a total of $10k in deductions for state and local taxes..... property, income, DMV, local if you pay a city or county income tax, etc...

I think one of the proposed plans allowed the deduction of up to 10k of *either* property or income taxes, but the final bill allows for a 10k deduction aggregate.

So if your state income tax comes to over 10k, then that's all you can deduct. In my case, my state income tax is around $7k, property taxes about $1300, that's $8300... my DMV taxes might make up another $300 for 2017, so my total will still be well below the 10k limit.


That's why Issa and Roarbacher voted against the bill. Their average constituent pays $20k-$30k just in property taxes, not to mention $50k-$100k in state income tax.
The new brackets will help them a bit, but won't make up for the loss of $120k+ in deductions.
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Originally Posted by dantodd View Post
A just gov't will not be overthrown by force or violence because the people have no incentive to overthrow a just gov't. If a small minority of people attempt such an insurrection to grab power and enslave the people the RKBA of the whole is our insurance against their success.
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Old 12-29-2017, 7:36 AM
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This isn't the only problem. Historical and political ramifications also favor a 2 party system. Campaign finance laws also favor a 2 party system. In ca, we need to vote Republican if we wanna end the corruption and b.s. politics these democrats operate under and create. We did it when Arnold won (would u prefer Arnold or moonbeam? Newsom?). No more D's in the governor's office, or any office in the state for that matter. Otherwise the 2a is all but dead. Look at everything we've lost. Mag rebuild kits, the bb, +10 mags, shrinking roster of handguns, etc. What have criminals lost? Nothing, they've gained rights in this state. Pathetic what our representatives are doing to us. They're pissing on our graves. And were paying them very well to do it.

We see what voting D has got us here. Wake the **** up.
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Old 12-29-2017, 2:29 PM
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What that graph tells me is that people from all political persuasions and leanings are rejecting the two-party duopoly. As the years go by you will continue to see party registration decline further.

This makes perfect sense to me as it is clear that both parties only pretend to share the interests of the voters during election season or when the cameras are turned on, and as soon as election season is over they pivot over to the interests of their large money donors. This is obvious to anyone who saw the Citizen's United ruling for what it really is: legalization and incentivization of graft.
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Old 12-29-2017, 2:30 PM
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This isn't the only problem. Historical and political ramifications also favor a 2 party system. Campaign finance laws also favor a 2 party system. In ca, we need to vote Republican if we wanna end the corruption and b.s. politics these democrats operate under and create. We did it when Arnold won (would u prefer Arnold or moonbeam? Newsom?). No more D's in the governor's office, or any office in the state for that matter. Otherwise the 2a is all but dead. Look at everything we've lost. Mag rebuild kits, the bb, +10 mags, shrinking roster of handguns, etc. What have criminals lost? Nothing, they've gained rights in this state. Pathetic what our representatives are doing to us. They're pissing on our graves. And were paying them very well to do it.

We see what voting D has got us here. Wake the **** up.
You would have to convince people to vote Republican because there's not enough votes on the Republican side alone, in fact, it seems that all Republican's are actually voting Republican now..

I would agree with you that Democrats have ruined the state, but we would need arguments to change people's minds. It seems that very few people agree that the state is in a slow death spiral , except us ..
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Old 12-29-2017, 6:13 PM
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Hope none of you are paying spousal support. The tax reform bill has a really nasty surprise in it.


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Old 12-29-2017, 7:47 PM
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So enlighten us....???
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Old 12-29-2017, 10:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Cokebottle View Post
The final combined resolved plan retained 7 brackets (but lowered them), and allows for a total of $10k in deductions for state and local taxes..... property, income, DMV, local if you pay a city or county income tax, etc...

I think one of the proposed plans allowed the deduction of up to 10k of *either* property or income taxes, but the final bill allows for a 10k deduction aggregate.

So if your state income tax comes to over 10k, then that's all you can deduct. In my case, my state income tax is around $7k, property taxes about $1300, that's $8300... my DMV taxes might make up another $300 for 2017, so my total will still be well below the 10k limit.


That's why Issa and Roarbacher voted against the bill. Their average constituent pays $20k-$30k just in property taxes, not to mention $50k-$100k in state income tax.
The new brackets will help them a bit, but won't make up for the loss of $120k+ in deductions.


An excellent observation that most have missed. The GOP put many house of Rep seats at risk in blue states. The GOP has a 24 seat margin in the house but 39 GOP seats in Blue states that may have been negatively impacted by tax reform. It could be very ugly midterm elections.
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Old 12-30-2017, 6:32 AM
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An excellent observation that most have missed. The GOP put many house of Rep seats at risk in blue states. The GOP has a 24 seat margin in the house but 39 GOP seats in Blue states that may have been negatively impacted by tax reform. It could be very ugly midterm elections.
All member of the house of representatives are re-elected every 2 years, which means that all the blue state, blue county Republican's, had to have gotten re-elected when people were voting for Hillary in 2016. To me that makes then bullet proof. In the mid-terms the Democratic voter turn out decreases by %10 or so, which means it should be easier for the Republicans to win in those same districts they won in 2016.

Democrats are the ones vulnerable in the red districts. I don't see how Republicans lose the House or Senate.
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Old 12-30-2017, 7:01 AM
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Spousal support -- the proposed bill would eliminate spousal support ( alimony) both as a deduction for the paying spouse and as income for the receiving spouse. However, it would only apply to divorce and separation agreements signed after 2017. ( not sure its in the final bill but probably is).
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Old 12-30-2017, 8:48 AM
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Spousal support -- the proposed bill would eliminate spousal support ( alimony) both as a deduction for the paying spouse and as income for the receiving spouse. However, it would only apply to divorce and separation agreements signed after 2017. ( not sure its in the final bill but probably is).
So the Gov still get's their pound of flesh and the Ex's get tax free income??.... Have they changed the Child support??
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  #28  
Old 12-30-2017, 9:30 AM
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What happened to Government by and for the people? Bottom line man can't govern man, eventually lust, power and corruption will spread like cancer. Even Thomas Jefferson said we need a new revolution every generation...It's been awhile.
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Old 12-30-2017, 2:12 PM
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Originally Posted by condor View Post
So the Gov still get's their pound of flesh and the Ex's get tax free income??.... Have they changed the Child support??


No changes to child support.


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Old 12-30-2017, 2:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Cokebottle View Post
The new plan kicks in for 2018. You can deduct your 2018 property taxes only if you pay before Jan 1 *and* you have already received your bill.

State and local taxes will be limited to a combined 10k deduction under the signed plan. Mortgage interest is capped at 500k... unsure if that is only for new loans or if it impacts current loans (current limit is 1m)

So if your property taxes are 10k for the year and your state income tax is 15k, paying your taxes for 2018 now will allow you to take that 10k deduction on your 2017 taxes, and you'll still be able to deduct 10k of your 15k state taxes.
If you wait and pay your 2018 property taxes in 2018, then you'll only be able to take a total of 10k in deductions.

My tax comes due in May and November, but it's only $1300 total for the year so no big deal here.
I checked my pay stub today and so far I've paid in 7k in State income tax, so state and property combined, I'll still be below $10k, so my S&L tax deductions won't change.
My mortgage is only 200k, so the mortgage interest will still be 100% deductible.

The question will be, will the doubling of the personal exemption end up being more than my mortgage interest and income/property taxes... Under this new plan, I just might pay less if I don't itemize.
If both my wife and I get a $24k personal exemption, then it will absolutely be a HUGE tax cut once the new brackets are added in.

I just might end up filing a 1040EZ for the first time in 40 years
The standard deduction values are:

$12K for single filers
$18K for Head of Household filers
$24K for Married filing jointly
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Old 12-30-2017, 10:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Blade Gunner View Post
No changes to child support.


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You can't deduct child support tho, no?
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all this hate over someone who never killed anyone (Charles manson)

Mutha **** the democrats that run ca.
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  #32  
Old 12-31-2017, 3:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Shootinginca View Post
You can't deduct child support tho, no?


Child support payments are not tax deductible. However there are increased child tax credits starting in 2018 if the patent(s) qualify. The allocation of which parent gets to claim these tax credits is usually specified in a child support agreement.


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Old 12-31-2017, 3:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Shootinginca View Post
You can't deduct child support tho, no?


Child support payments are non deductible. There are increased child tax credits starting in tax year 2018 if the parent(s) qualify. Allocation of these credits is usually specified in a child support agreement and/or court order.


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Old 02-15-2018, 7:48 PM
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There is an assumption being made in here that says NPP's vote Dem at the last minute but people forget many NPPs dont vote at all. I know too many people who either never voted in their life or havent since Reagan or say 1990. They *****, they complain, but they dont vote.

But its an interesting point, the idea that NPPs are likely Dem voters, something not lost on Obama when he advanced the idea of voting as a citizen requirement.

Though its completely logical that NPPs are rising, im more alarmed by people like me who were lifetime of one party, only to recently and abruptly switch. Im not the only one and such a situation seriously askews that graph.
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