Keep Calm and Carry On

[hoffmang]

All,

There is quite a bit of fear in our community. It was a completely justified reaction to the unleashing of gun prohibitionist forces after Newtown. However, it's time to take a deep breath, step back, and realize that, though we have our work cut out for us, we can prevail and continue the march toward more civil rights.

Federal:

The Federal AWB reinstatement is almost completely dead. Too many Democratic Senators stand for election in pro gun states in 2014. What's left will have little direct impact on we Californians but that doesn't mean we don't care. Magazine capacity restrictions still have some potential, but it seems that even Biden is distancing himself from that proposal, again due to the 2014 issues and the interplay that even if something passes the Senate, it's unlikely to pass the House making it only politically costly for Dems or moderate unfaithful Reeps with 0 to gain. The strongest push will be for universal background checks. Even should that happen, we're already living under that. However, it will still be very hard to get that through the House.

State:

One critical difference in California is that the executive is not pushing new gun control like e.g. Governor Cuomo did in New York. California's bills are going to run at usual speed and in a few months we'll start to get a feel for which ones will have no support and which ones are serious proposals. There remains skepticism about ammo restrictions at senior levels and those run into commerce related problems. Also, the complexion of this years legislative run hasn't fully been set. CGF has a couple of initiatives it plans to place into the mix. We will have real work to do to hold the line in California, but that real work is something this community has done before and we are not without allies and support (sometimes from places that many here find suspect.)

Courts:

We will take some silly losses simply because we deign to ask gun prohibitionist judges to faithfully apply the Bill of Rights. The Schrader case is one of those already and is direct fall out from Newtown. However, I am confident that Kachalshy (NY carry) has very good chances of being granted cert by SCOTUS in April to be argued early in their next term (which would be October - December 2013.) We appear to remain on track for a decision on may issue carry from the Supremes by July 1, 2014.

New York State overplayed their hand by limiting magazines to 7 rounds. We may not win that issue in lower courts, but as we go up, the courts get more honest about applying Heller. Banning Heller's own 9 shot revolver from Heller and most every semiautomatic handgun in commerce is the kind of over reach we can capitalize on nationally.

Additionally, this wake up call has forged new alliances, brought the forces that want to defend the Bill of Rights together for the betterment of all civil rights, and created new allies. The threats by certain states to sue should these sorts of infringements be passed at the Federal level are real and courts give even greater deference to states under federalism.

So, don't panic. Do call, write, keep informed. Do talk to your friends who are ignorant on these issues and de-escalate their fear while informing them as politely as possible. Get ready to apply the pressure we'll need to apply once CA bill season really gets underway.

Often the other side makes one last over-reach. This might be it. We need to calmly prepare to push very hard as the time continues to shift the balance back to civil rights and away from hysteria.

-Gene

[SigAlert]

Thanks Gene!

[agl1911]

Thanks Gene and thank you and the CGF team for all of your efforts.

[komifornian]

Gene,

You're a learned and level headed man. I always appreciate it when you give your insight and perspective.

[RMP91]

WILCO.

They would have passed something by now on the Federal level if they knew they could get away with it. We are closing in on the 2 month anniversary of Newtown and the worst we've seen so far was NY's revised AWB with the 7 round mag limit. I acknowledge that their new law by itself is very significant and terrible, but with something as overreaching as this it's pretty much a given that it will be challenged in court. That aside, all we've seen on the Federal Level was Mccarthy's standalone 10+ round magazine ban and Feinstein's AWB 2.0 being introduced, both of which are idling in Committee. If my math about the way most of the Senators and Representatives will vote is correct, neither bill will even come close to passing either House of Congress. The one thing I could see passing is Universal Background Checks. I'd much rather have them pass UBCs (as much as I enjoy private intra-familial transfers) than having them go after Semi-Autos and 10+ round magazines full force.

Their overreach in New York is what will do the new Gun Control movement in.

The antis' do not possess the kind of coordination, influence and numbers that we do. It's simple math. Barring another large massacre within the next month or so, we're on track to win this, just like we have several times before.

[DC-8]

A big thank you to Gene for the work he does.

Good words at a good time for our community.

[SuperSet]

Does this mean I should stop stretching and loading my mags?

[WootSauce]

Couldn't resist


And thanks Gene. I think a lot of us needed to hear this

[paul0660]

Nice recap.

[toyotaguy]

Thanks Gene.

[taperxz]

Originally Posted by paul0660

Nice recap.

I agree.

[Wild Squid]

Man, who the hell are you kidding? Pro gun activists are about to get their asses handed to them, you included buddy. All this talk about remaining calm, I suppose you're just trying to drum up more money huh? You know as well as I do its a lost cause. Take a look at these laws that are about to get shoved down your throats. Ha!

- AJR5, Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez, D-Los Angeles, is a resolution urging the president and Congress to pass U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein's legislation prohibiting the sale, transfer, importation and manufacturing of assault weapons and large-capacity magazines.

- AB48, Assemblywoman Nancy Skinner, D-Berkeley, requires ammunition sellers to be licensed and ammunition buyers to have and show valid identification, similar to those covering gun sales. Sales of large amounts of ammunition to an individual buyer within a five-day period would have to be reported to local law enforcement agencies. Bans "clip kits" that can convert approved ammunition feeding device into large-capacity magazines, defined as a magazine that can hold more than 10 bullets.

- AB134, Assemblymen Dan Logue, R-Linda, and Allan Mansoor, R-Costa Mesa, bans counties from making public the telephone numbers and addresses of people holding or applying for concealed weapons permits. Authorities could still release the names of those who have a permit. The bill responds to a New York state newspaper's recent publishing of the names and addresses of legal gun owners.

- AB169, Assemblyman Roger Dickinson, D-Sacramento, prohibits peace officers and members of the military from selling handguns that are not on the Department of Justice's list of approved weapons to buyers who are not also peace officers and members of the military and thus are not eligible to own the handguns. A similar previous bill, AB2460, was vetoed by Gov. Jerry Brown last year. Both bills respond to a federal indictment charging two Sacramento County Sheriff's deputies with selling such weapons for a profit.

- AB170, Assemblyman Steven Bradford, D-Gardena, restricts permits for assault weapons and .50-caliber rifles to individuals. Current law allows permits to be held by corporations, associations, partnerships and limited liability companies.

- AB174, Assemblyman Rob Bonta, D-Oakland, removes prior ownership, or "grandfather" clauses, from state laws prohibiting the possession of various weapons. Current law allows ownership of weapons that were possessed prior to the ban under certain conditions.

- AB180, Assemblyman Rob Bonta, D-Oakland, establishes an unspecified tax on ammunition sold in retail stores and gun shows and devotes the additional revenue toward crime prevention efforts in high-crime areas of the state.

- SB47, by Sen. Leland Yee, D-San Francisco, prohibits the use of so-called bullet buttons and other devices that allow for swift reloading of military-style assault weapons.

- SB49, by Sen. Ted Lieu, D-Torrance, requires public schools statewide to prepare and update their emergency response plans in case of an attack. A similar bill, SB755, died in committee last year.

- SB53, by Sen. Kevin de Leon, D-Los Angeles, increases restrictions on purchasing ammunition by requiring buyers to get a permit, undergo a background check and pay a fee.

- SB108, by Sen. Leland Yee, D-San Francisco, requires all guns to be properly stored with a trigger lock or in a lock box when the owner is not present. Current law requires owners to have a trigger lock or safety lock box but doesn't require the safety device to be used.

- SB140, by Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, and Sen. Mark Leno, D-San Francisco, lets the state Department of Justice use reserve funds to reduce a backlog in confiscating weapons from individuals who bought them legally but were later convicted of a crime, treated for mental illness or subjected to domestic violence court orders.

[RMP91]

Originally Posted by Wild Squid

Man, who the hell are you kidding? Pro gun activists are about to get their asses handed to them, you included buddy. All this talk about remaining calm, I suppose you're just trying to drum up more money huh? You know as well as I do its a lost cause. Take a look at these laws that are about to get shoved down your throats. Ha! *SNIP*

Slow and Steady wins the race, each and every time...

That's all I say about that.

[taperxz]

Originally Posted by Wild Squid

Man, who the hell are you kidding? Pro gun activists are about to get their asses handed to them, you included buddy. All this talk about remaining calm, I suppose you're just trying to drum up more money huh? You know as well as I do its a lost cause. Take a look at these laws that are about to get shoved down your throats. Ha!

- AJR5, Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez, D-Los Angeles, is a resolution urging the president and Congress to pass U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein's legislation prohibiting the sale, transfer, importation and manufacturing of assault weapons and large-capacity magazines.

- AB48, Assemblywoman Nancy Skinner, D-Berkeley, requires ammunition sellers to be licensed and ammunition buyers to have and show valid identification, similar to those covering gun sales. Sales of large amounts of ammunition to an individual buyer within a five-day period would have to be reported to local law enforcement agencies. Bans "clip kits" that can convert approved ammunition feeding device into large-capacity magazines, defined as a magazine that can hold more than 10 bullets.

- AB134, Assemblymen Dan Logue, R-Linda, and Allan Mansoor, R-Costa Mesa, bans counties from making public the telephone numbers and addresses of people holding or applying for concealed weapons permits. Authorities could still release the names of those who have a permit. The bill responds to a New York state newspaper's recent publishing of the names and addresses of legal gun owners.

- AB169, Assemblyman Roger Dickinson, D-Sacramento, prohibits peace officers and members of the military from selling handguns that are not on the Department of Justice's list of approved weapons to buyers who are not also peace officers and members of the military and thus are not eligible to own the handguns. A similar previous bill, AB2460, was vetoed by Gov. Jerry Brown last year. Both bills respond to a federal indictment charging two Sacramento County Sheriff's deputies with selling such weapons for a profit.

- AB170, Assemblyman Steven Bradford, D-Gardena, restricts permits for assault weapons and .50-caliber rifles to individuals. Current law allows permits to be held by corporations, associations, partnerships and limited liability companies.

- AB174, Assemblyman Rob Bonta, D-Oakland, removes prior ownership, or "grandfather" clauses, from state laws prohibiting the possession of various weapons. Current law allows ownership of weapons that were possessed prior to the ban under certain conditions.

- AB180, Assemblyman Rob Bonta, D-Oakland, establishes an unspecified tax on ammunition sold in retail stores and gun shows and devotes the additional revenue toward crime prevention efforts in high-crime areas of the state.

- SB47, by Sen. Leland Yee, D-San Francisco, prohibits the use of so-called bullet buttons and other devices that allow for swift reloading of military-style assault weapons.

- SB49, by Sen. Ted Lieu, D-Torrance, requires public schools statewide to prepare and update their emergency response plans in case of an attack. A similar bill, SB755, died in committee last year.

- SB53, by Sen. Kevin de Leon, D-Los Angeles, increases restrictions on purchasing ammunition by requiring buyers to get a permit, undergo a background check and pay a fee.

- SB108, by Sen. Leland Yee, D-San Francisco, requires all guns to be properly stored with a trigger lock or in a lock box when the owner is not present. Current law requires owners to have a trigger lock or safety lock box but doesn't require the safety device to be used.

- SB140, by Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, and Sen. Mark Leno, D-San Francisco, lets the state Department of Justice use reserve funds to reduce a backlog in confiscating weapons from individuals who bought them legally but were later convicted of a crime, treated for mental illness or subjected to domestic violence court orders.

Don't you realize that most of these bills have no language in them yet or are even prepared to meet committee?

[fiddletown]

Originally Posted by Wild Squid

Man, who the hell are you kidding? Pro gun activists are about to get their asses handed to them, you included buddy. All this talk about remaining calm, I suppose you're just trying to drum up more money huh? You know as well as I do its a lost cause. ....

Thank you, Squid. We can always count on you for mindless negativity. I guess we can't expect any help from you.

Or do you have some solution you're keeping to yourself?

[Kopis]

Thank you, Gene, I always enjoy your posts.

Originally Posted by Wild Squid

Man, who the hell are you kidding? Pro gun activists are about to get their asses handed to them, you included buddy. All this talk about remaining calm, I suppose you're just trying to drum up more money huh? You know as well as I do its a lost cause. Take a look at these laws that are about to get shoved down your throats. Ha!

[paul0660]

Don't you realize that most of these bills have no language in them yet or are even prepared to meet committee?

Probably he does.

Nice of the troll to put them in an identifiable list.

[dunndeal]

Originally Posted by Wild Squid

Man, who the hell are you kidding? Pro gun activists are about to get their asses handed to them, you included buddy. All this talk about remaining calm, I suppose you're just trying to drum up more money huh? You know as well as I do its a lost cause. Take a look at these laws that are about to get shoved down your throats. Ha!

You have a crystal ball I presume? You don't know jack **** and you're pretty insulting while demonstrating your ignorance.

Why are you even here?

[curtisfong]

Originally Posted by Wild Squid

I suppose you're just trying to drum up more money huh? You know as well as I do its a lost cause.

Hey junior: if he wanted to drum up money, wouldn't he *overrstate* the direness of the situation, rather that downplay it?

[Kurus214]

Thank you for this update, it helps to know a bit of where we stand.

[Paul E]

Great post. It's crazy to think how relatively quickly the AWB was killed (theoretically), my how things change.

It's annoying to not be able to find guns/ammo/components, but then looking at the big picture, there are tens or hundreds of thousands of new gun owners over the past few months, so while its inconvenient now, Ill take it.

Looks like the tables have finally turned.

[Noble Cause]

Bold Emphasis = Key areas, imho.

Originally Posted by hoffmang

All,

There is quite a bit of fear in our community. It was a completely justified reaction to the unleashing of gun prohibitionist forces after Newtown. However, it's time to take a deep breath, step back, and realize that, though we have our work cut out for us, we can prevail and continue the march toward more civil rights.

Federal:

The Federal AWB reinstatement is almost completely dead. Too many Democratic Senators stand for election in pro gun states in 2014. What's left will have little direct impact on we Californians but that doesn't mean we don't care. Magazine capacity restrictions still have some potential, but it seems that even Biden is distancing himself from that proposal, again due to the 2014 issues and the interplay that even if something passes the Senate, it's unlikely to pass the House making it only politically costly for Dems or moderate unfaithful Reeps with 0 to gain. The strongest push will be for universal background checks. Even should that happen, we're already living under that. However, it will still be very hard to get that through the House.

State:

One critical difference in California is that the executive is not pushing new gun control like e.g. Governor Cuomo did in New York. California's bills are going to run at usual speed and in a few months we'll start to get a feel for which ones will have no support and which ones are serious proposals. There remains skepticism about ammo restrictions at senior levels and those run into commerce related problems. Also, the complexion of this years legislative run hasn't fully been set. CGF has a couple of initiatives it plans to place into the mix. We will have real work to do to hold the line in California, but that real work is something this community has done before and we are not without allies and support (sometimes from places that many here find suspect.)

Courts:

We will take some silly losses simply because we deign to ask gun prohibitionist judges to faithfully apply the Bill of Rights. The Schrader case is one of those already and is direct fall out from Newtown. However, I am confident that Kachalshy (NY carry) has very good chances of being granted cert by SCOTUS in April to be argued early in their next term (which would be October - December 2013.) We appear to remain on track for a decision on may issue carry from the Supremes by July 1, 2014.

New York State overplayed their hand by limiting magazines to 7 rounds. We may not win that issue in lower courts, but as we go up, the courts get more honest about applying Heller. Banning Heller's own 9 shot revolver from Heller and most every semiautomatic handgun in commerce is the kind of over reach we can capitalize on nationally.
Additionally, this wake up call has forged new alliances, brought the forces that want to defend the Bill of Rights together for the betterment of all civil rights, and created new allies. The threats by certain states to sue should these sorts of infringements be passed at the Federal level are real and courts give even greater deference to states under federalism.

So, don't panic. Do call, write, keep informed. Do talk to your friends who are ignorant on these issues and de-escalate their fear while informing them as politely as possible. Get ready to apply the pressure we'll need to apply once CA bill season really gets underway.
Often the other side makes one last over-reach. This might be it. We need to calmly prepare to push very hard as the time continues to shift the balance back to civil rights and away from hysteria.

-Gene

A calm, precise assessment of the current situation.

The timing of the next massacre could affect many of the above items.

Because of the "Werther effect" we are in a window of time that actually
increases the chances for a copycat. It is offset by everyone's increased
vigilance when it comes to their schools safety... ie... Newtown B.o.Education
voting for armed officers.... but the danger is still there (malls, parks, ect.)

I add my voice to the crowd of people Thanking Gene for all his work
defending our 2nd Amendment rights.

I now return you to "Wild Squid" and his attempt to gather attention
for himself.


Noble

[IrishPirate]

thank you!!!

[P345]

Thanks TEAM!

[wazdat]

Thanks Gene. Just when I start to feel battered gun owner syndrome taking over you guys show me a glimmer of hope.

Donation on the way.

[Haverecords]

Thanks for all your efforts, Gene. Heartening, realistic update.

as for the squid, obvious troll is obvious.

[NameNotTaken]

Thank you sir for this post. Accurate or not ( at this point I am nervous and fearful do to what has been happening in this country) thank you for a calm and clear approach.

[kimber_ss]

Thanks for the update! Vigilance.

[epilepticninja]

Don't hate on the squid. He's only pointing out what is floating around out there, solidified or not. I like what Gene had to say, but I'm kinda of negative too with all the b.s. that the anti's have been throwing up. The way squid compiled it does look pretty daunting, especially with all the gun-hating pol's that are sitting at Capitol. I'm hoping all those bills die, with maybe the exception of the bill about not-releasing CCW holders info.

[ConfucianScholar]

Thank you Gene, for the informed reality check...and to Squid for the comic relief.

[phdo]

Thank you for the update, Gene. Hopefully we'll see some lower prices in the marketplace in the near future.

[merrill]

Good words of encouragement, thank you. I will carry on with emails daily (state and federal) and phone calls and letters on Friday to the California Legislature expressing my opposition.

[mud99]

I think my blood pressure just went down 20 points.

[gumby]

Originally Posted by ConfucianScholar

Thank you Gene, for the informed reality check...and to Squid for the comic relief.

+1^^^^^^^

[Sabesimpson]

Thanks Gene!! Great looking out for us and keeping us informed.

[Treadstone]

Thanks Gene! It's been very encouraging to see so many law enforcement officials and associations around the country step up and publicly voice their opposition to 2A infringement. That combined with the hoarding of just about anything firearm related has got to sit very poorly with the gun grabbers.

But we must remain vigilant and keep contacting our officials. Write letters of encouragement to the officials opposing this insanity!

[alfred1222]

Thanks Gene!!!

[onegtalon]

Thanks for the update Gene!


Sent from my iPhone
OneGtalon

[stamina]

Originally Posted by Wild Squid

Take a look at these laws that are about to get shoved down your throats.

Obviously facts aren't something with which you're familiar, but for others who may not yet understand the process....those aren't laws, they're just bills.

As bills, they may very well never even become law. Look at SB249 last year...died in committee.

For more details on the difference between bills and laws, see Schoolhouse Rock, et al.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyeJ55o3El0

No school like the Old School

[G-Man WC]

Thanks Gene. Always the voice of reason.
-g