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National 2nd Amend. Political & Legal Discussion Discuss national gun rights and 2A related political topics here. All advice given is NOT legal counsel.

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  #161  
Old 08-01-2018, 3:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Robotron2k84 View Post
Why would McConnell move for a vote on reciprocity before the election? Still dangling it out there to get more GOP at the polls. Kavanaugh will be in Oct. and reciprocity will likely be voted on after the elections in November or December, if at all. It's still "in the fall" until 12/20/2018, no?
Well, maybe because he said he was going to bring it up for a vote before the midterms. If the Dems win big, then there will be no chance of it passing afterwards, even though the new representatives and senators will not take their seats until next year, because the Dems will effectively filibuster it.
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  #162  
Old 08-01-2018, 5:46 PM
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bump....

Sept and Oct this year are going to be really busy in D.C., what with Nat' Recip starting to move again in the Senate, the Kavanaugh confirmation battle in the Senate, and 1/3rd of the Senate and all of the House campaigning before the Nov elections.

Hang on to your seats once Sept 4th rolls around....

have you heard of any recent confirmed discussion in the senate regarding the cornyn bill? if so please share with us.
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  #163  
Old 08-02-2018, 4:16 AM
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have you heard of any recent confirmed discussion in the senate regarding the cornyn bill? if so please share with us.
No. I'm going off of the prediction made by a former president of the NRA back in Jan or Feb. I embedded the YT of the interview in either this, the thread re. the Senate version or in the other thread dedicated to the House version of Nat'l Recip, if you want to find it.

Regardless, we should find out in just over a month whether his prediction comes true or not.

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  #164  
Old 08-02-2018, 1:00 PM
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Any chance that Conryn will amend his bill to embrace non-resident CCW's?

I have had a TX CHL for 16 years but live in a no-issue section of CA.
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  #165  
Old 08-02-2018, 3:10 PM
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Any chance that Conryn will amend his bill to embrace non-resident CCW's?

I have had a TX CHL for 16 years but live in a no-issue section of CA.
No. The House bill had such a provision, the Senate bill never did, and McConnell wants it that way. That was one of the reasons the House bill was DOA.
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  #166  
Old 08-10-2018, 6:13 PM
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Originally Posted by stag6.8 View Post
have you heard of any recent confirmed discussion in the senate regarding the cornyn bill? if so please share with us.
Grassley just announced that the Kavanaugh hearings will begin Sept 4th, when Congress comes back from summer break. They want him on the Court come the first workday of October, so that means he'll have to pass the Senate in Sept. Things start moving in just 3.5 weeks.

My guess is we'll hear around then, if not sooner, what the future looks like for the Senate version of Nat'l Recip.
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  #167  
Old 08-10-2018, 6:43 PM
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So is the House version completely dead now?
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  #168  
Old 08-10-2018, 8:48 PM
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The Senate could still: debate the Cornyn bill and vote on it, sending the bill to conference if passed to be meted out with the House bill, or they could table the Cornyn bill and take up a vote on the House version. Either way, it will be fought with D's asking for amendments before a final vote. Ideally, McConnell should simply bring it to the floor for up or down voting on a simple majority. Expect plenty of stalling attempts and refusal for cloture on the part of the opposition.

To sum it all up, no one knows how it will play out and a lot depends on whether it's brought to the floor before or after the midterm elections and the results of those should the bill not be brought up beforehand.

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  #169  
Old 08-10-2018, 9:05 PM
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Thanks. Wasn't sure if the House Bill died after the deal with FixNICS earlier this year.
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  #170  
Old 08-13-2018, 8:44 AM
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Thanks. Wasn't sure if the House Bill died after the deal with FixNICS earlier this year.
Good question. The reciprocity/fix NICS passed as a package but only fix NICS got voted on.
Don't know if it can be brought back by the house or not
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  #171  
Old 08-13-2018, 1:47 PM
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Good question. The reciprocity/fix NICS passed as a package but only fix NICS got voted on.
Don't know if it can be brought back by the house or not
IMO, the House bill, although technically still breathing, is brain dead and on life support. Cornyn likes his bill, and he can assure that it is the only one that the Senate will consider. As noted earlier, the Cornyn bill only grants reciprocity to resident CCWs, not to nonresident permits, while the House bill does both. Carynyn's bill is more likely to survive state challenges as a usurpation of state's rights and other attacks--which are sure to follow. There is no way the NY, NJ or California are going to allow nonresident tourists/visitors to carry in their states without a fight. So I think we need Kavanaugh to be confirmed first before opening this sh*t storm.
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  #172  
Old 08-13-2018, 4:33 PM
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IMO, the House bill, although technically still breathing, is brain dead and on life support. Cornyn likes his bill, and he can assure that it is the only one that the Senate will consider. As noted earlier, the Cornyn bill only grants reciprocity to resident CCWs, not to nonresident permits, while the House bill does both. Carynyn's bill is more likely to survive state challenges as a usurpation of state's rights and other attacks--which are sure to follow. There is no way the NY, NJ or California are going to allow nonresident tourists/visitors to carry in their states without a fight. So I think we need Kavanaugh to be confirmed first before opening this sh*t storm.
If the Cornyn bill only recognizes resident permits, what will that do to those of us who can only get non resident permits? Does that mean that my AZ permit will no longer be valid in the States that currently recognize it? Or is it left up to the States to determine their own reciprocity like it is now, in addition to the States being forced to recognize all resident permits from all other States?
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  #173  
Old 08-13-2018, 4:52 PM
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If the Cornyn bill only recognizes resident permits, what will that do to those of us who can only get non resident permits? Does that mean that my AZ permit will no longer be valid in the States that currently recognize it? Or is it left up to the States to determine their own reciprocity like it is now, in addition to the States being forced to recognize all resident permits from all other States?
All that the Cornyn bill says is that each state must recognize the resident permits of all other states. It does not require any state to change its laws on reciprocity for nonresident permits, or require states to stop issuing nonresident permits. Presumably, except in the ban states, there will be little substantive change in state laws. For example, the Virginia Governor/Attorney General tried to ban reciprocity, and the outcry caused them to back off because those reciprocity agreements were hat allowed Virginia to carry in other states.
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  #174  
Old 08-14-2018, 8:55 AM
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Not exactly correct. What differs between Cornyn and the house bill is essentially a resident within his own state cannot use another state permit in place of their own states permit.
The house version is that any permit is good anywhere.
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  #175  
Old 08-14-2018, 9:20 PM
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Default RECIPROCITY

CORNYN IS A POLITICAL HACK ,THAT ONLY CARES ABOUT HIS OWN AGENDA. DO NOT TRUST THIS GUY TO SUPPORT GUN RIGHTS. MY TEXAS BUDDS SAY HE IS A SNAKE.
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  #176  
Old 08-16-2018, 4:01 PM
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CORNYN IS A POLITICAL HACK ,THAT ONLY CARES ABOUT HIS OWN AGENDA. DO NOT TRUST THIS GUY TO SUPPORT GUN RIGHTS. MY TEXAS BUDDS SAY HE IS A SNAKE.
Maybe, but I don't see him voting against it.
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  #177  
Old 08-16-2018, 4:54 PM
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CORNYN IS A POLITICAL HACK ,THAT ONLY CARES ABOUT HIS OWN AGENDA. DO NOT TRUST THIS GUY TO SUPPORT GUN RIGHTS. MY TEXAS BUDDS SAY HE IS A SNAKE.
I'll take the TX guys word for that. I'm starting to believe that many if not most of the Republicans are just using this issue the way the Dems use immigration. They don't want to fix it, they just want the issue to run on.
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  #178  
Old 08-28-2018, 4:33 PM
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Thanks. See the article linked in my post #228 above for what I think. tl;dr there are a lot of "moving pieces", so it is difficult to predict what will happen to nat'l recip this year. IMO, even Trump's behavior or popularity may factor into what the Senate does or doesn't do. I've still got another 6.25 years on my FL CCW, so I'm good regardless. Won't have to apply with the rush should it pass this year or next (assuming antis don't gain ground in the Nov election).

Here's your video embedded. Notice how he predicts the vote won't be until Oct, the month before the elections....

"Before Oct" means sometime within the next 5 weeks!

Since the Kavanaugh confirmation fight will take up the first half of Sept for the Senate, I'm guessing Nat'l Recip will take up the 2nd half (assuming it gets active again).
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  #179  
Old 08-30-2018, 7:12 PM
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Appropriate cross post.

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Originally Posted by Paladin View Post
If LOC is "the Right", then: (1) maybe that's what non-residents get to do in other states, avoiding having to pass CCW/ConCarry Nat'l Recip which may violate the 10th A.

(2) Maybe that's what ex-cons with restored 2nd A RKBA get to do to protect themselves on "the outside."
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  #180  
Old 08-31-2018, 8:32 AM
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So is the House version completely dead now?
It will be after November.
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  #181  
Old 08-31-2018, 8:40 AM
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It will be after November.
Is that based on your eternal optimism, or because it will expire or some such scenario?
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  #182  
Old 08-31-2018, 2:09 PM
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Is that based on your eternal optimism, or because it will expire or some such scenario?
I think he means at the end of the current session the bill will automatically die. Not that it matters; Cornyn has already stated that he will not bring it up (because he wants his bill, not theirs).
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  #183  
Old 09-04-2018, 2:43 PM
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I think he means at the end of the current session the bill will automatically die. Not that it matters; Cornyn has already stated that he will not bring it up (because he wants his bill, not theirs).
I thought he said he wouldn't bring up Reciprocity because "his" bill referred to was Fix Nics, which is law.
Did he specifically say he won't go for reciprocity now with FixNics passed?
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  #184  
Old 09-04-2018, 4:39 PM
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I thought he said he wouldn't bring up Reciprocity because "his" bill referred to was Fix Nics, which is law.
Did he specifically say he won't go for reciprocity now with FixNics passed?
Cornyn has two bills, one on reciprocity and one for FixNICS. The House bill had both in a single bill, and Cornyn wanted them considered separately. Technically one part of the House bill is moot (FixNICS), and the remaining portion will die in favor of Cornyn's bill. The main difference is that the House bill grants reciprocity to both resident and nonresident permits, while Cornyn's bill only requires reciprocity for resident permits. This is not to say that states cannot continue to recognize non-res permits if the states so choose, only that they will not be required to do so if Cornyn's bill is passed.
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  #185  
Old 09-14-2018, 7:40 PM
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"Cornyn likes his bill, and he can assure that it is the only one that the Senate will consider."

I think its bit more complicated. We would all like to see CA residents with out of state permits get to carry. That would break the CA anti 2nd Amendment cabal wide open.

The issue is that when the Senate does the math there is no way to drag that kind of a bill across the 60 vote threshold. The best guess is that a bill that benefits West Virginia residents and the residents of other pro Trump states with Dem Senators will have a better chance of clearing the bar. None of the CA Senators will vote for either version so they don't count in the math.

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  #186  
Old 09-16-2018, 2:53 PM
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  #187  
Old 10-28-2018, 10:59 PM
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As I wrote in another thread:

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IMO, the antis are spending so much and fighting so hard to retake the House because, among other things, they don't want National Reciprocity to pass the House again.

What this means for us is that we NEED the Senate to pass it before New Year's Day. That's barely over 2 months from now. If that happens, IIRC, Trump can still sign it into law after the new year.
I guess the various mass shootings and Kavanaugh confirmation process knocked it off the front burner. Does anyone know if the Senate will take this up after the election?
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  #188  
Old 10-28-2018, 11:38 PM
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Does anyone know if the Senate will take this up after the election?
I sure hope so, but I’m not holding my breath.
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  #189  
Old 10-29-2018, 11:45 AM
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I sure hope so, but I’m not holding my breath.
They sure better. But if the red wave occurs there's a chance.
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  #190  
Old 10-29-2018, 2:23 PM
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They sure better. But if the red wave occurs there's a chance.
McConnell promised it would be brought up after the midterms, but if there is a blue wave, there won't be the needed Dem votes to get it to the floor for an up or down vote, as there will be no incentive from the pro carry Dems to vote in favor of the bill. Moreover, if McConnell doesn't have the needed votes to stop a filibuster, you can kiss the bill good-bye. I am not familiar with Senate procedure, but I suspect that the bill will have to start all over again when the "new" Senate is seated.
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Old 11-07-2018, 8:50 AM
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McConnell promised it would be brought up after the midterms, but if there is a blue wave, there won't be the needed Dem votes to get it to the floor for an up or down vote, as there will be no incentive from the pro carry Dems to vote in favor of the bill. Moreover, if McConnell doesn't have the needed votes to stop a filibuster, you can kiss the bill good-bye. I am not familiar with Senate procedure, but I suspect that the bill will have to start all over again when the "new" Senate is seated.
Looks like this is the new reality even though the blue wave was more like a ripple. Even if a bill should get through the senate, doesn't it have to be reconciled with the democrat controlled house? Not much chance of that happening now.

On the plus side four incumbent democrat senators who voted against Kavanaugh lost their seats in states that Trump won in 2016
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Old 11-07-2018, 9:54 AM
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Just being 'blue' isn't a certain anti-gun rep thought right? What does the actual breakdown look like now?
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Old 11-07-2018, 10:08 AM
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It's certain. Fewer middle ground politicians on both sides. Polarization will ensure all the blues and reds vote in line with the party to avoid getting primaried out down the line. From here out it'll be one-sey two-sey senators or house members that flip. Bipartisanship is done for hot button issues.
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  #194  
Old 11-07-2018, 11:35 AM
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Just being 'blue' isn't a certain anti-gun rep thought right? What does the actual breakdown look like now?
It remains the same until the new Congress is seated next year on January 3. This gives us two scenarios:
1. At the current time, the Dem senators who are out are lame ducks and not likely to help out the other side of the aisle. Which means that getting 60 votes to avoid a filibuster may be impossible. I'd say the odds of a bill passing, absent some devious procedural device to get it to the floor, are slim. Reconciliation is not an issue since the Republicans will hold the House for the next few months.
2. After the new Congress is seated, the odds go up with more Republican senators, but the odds of a reconciliation passing the House are slim to absolutely never.

In short, the odds of a national reciprocity bill being enacted any time within the next two years is very unlikely. After that, who know?

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  #195  
Old 11-07-2018, 12:09 PM
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In short, the odds of a national reciprocity bill being enacted any time within the next two years is very unlikely. After that, who know?
Thank you. Getting the SCOTUS lined out, the hearing protection act, and reciprocity were the top three things I was hoping for. I guess one out of three is better than a kick in the balls.
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  #196  
Old 11-07-2018, 12:40 PM
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As I've pointed out several times in this thread: the Senate can simply vote on the resolution as submitted by the House, thereby obviating reconciliation. That would mean dropping S.446 in favor of the HR.38 language, which includes non-resident reciprocity. With a stronger R presence in the new year, that may be what takes place.
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Old 11-07-2018, 2:11 PM
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As I've pointed out several times in this thread: the Senate can simply vote on the resolution as submitted by the House, thereby obviating reconciliation. That would mean dropping S.446 in favor of the HR.38 language, which includes non-resident reciprocity. With a stronger R presence in the new year, that may be what takes place.
In the new year is too late. the bill will have to be voted on before the recess. The House bill dies, as I understand it, the moment the new Congress is sworn in. Further, Cornyn apparently is fine with resident CCW reciprocity but not nonresident reciprocity, which is why he split the House bill into tow part and passed the FixNICS part.

(Personally, I think there are fewer challenges to a resident only reciprocity law, which will be important because it will be attacked immediately after it is signed into law.)
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Old 11-07-2018, 3:25 PM
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Yes, next year is too late for the current bill. My comment was that HR.38 language may be attempted again.
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Old 11-07-2018, 7:46 PM
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Just being 'blue' isn't a certain anti-gun rep though right?
It pretty much is.
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Old 11-07-2018, 9:44 PM
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Yes, next year is too late for the current bill. My comment was that HR.38 language may be attempted again.
Not with a House dominated by a bunch of Democrats bent on passing a gun control agenda who object to national reciprocity because it somehow violates state sovereignty. At least that's what nasty Nancy said she is going to do when she isn't too busy subpoenaing the White House and every business Trump has ever been associated with and reopening the Russiagate investigation in an attempt to gin up enough evidence to move for impeachment.
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