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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #1  
Old 07-16-2018, 10:14 AM
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Default How do I maintain authority over my security force after SHTF?

Interesting problem for the billionaire prepper (yes that's a real thing).

---
Finally, the CEO of a brokerage house explained that he had nearly completed building his own underground bunker system and asked, “How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?”

The Event. That was their euphemism for the environmental collapse, social unrest, nuclear explosion, unstoppable virus...

This single question occupied us for the rest of the hour. They knew armed guards would be required to protect their compounds from the angry mobs. But how would they pay the guards once money was worthless? What would stop the guards from choosing their own leader? The billionaires considered using special combination locks on the food supply that only they knew. Or making guards wear disciplinary collars of some kind in return for their survival. Or maybe building robots to serve as guards and workers — if that technology could be developed in time.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/11/surv...us-behind.html
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Old 07-16-2018, 10:19 AM
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The short answer is you don't. Just because your a billionaire does not mean you are the most qualified to lead any group of people after a major event. What are your crisis management skills? What are your military leadership skills? What do you have that would make people follow you once your money means nothing? If you establish some type of control system, people will find a way to subvert it eventually, especially if you are a horrible natural leader or show yourself to be horribly equipped to lead in a SHTF scenario.
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Old 07-16-2018, 10:28 AM
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Old 07-16-2018, 11:08 AM
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Old 07-16-2018, 11:28 AM
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This place just jumped off the silly cliff.
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Old 07-16-2018, 11:37 AM
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I think the best person to ask this question is Negan.
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Old 07-16-2018, 11:57 AM
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I think the reality during even a complete shtf situation is that people remain hopeful that things will return to normal eventually because that's what's happened many times in the past, and even more so in our modern past.

So a billionaire might be smart to hire religious people who believe strongly in doing the right thing / keeping their word and his security team have a strong hope muscle because that billionaire is going to have to be telling some mighty good Stories about how his security team will all rolling in gold, women and alcohol ( or converts to their religion of choice and multiple brides, if that's how they roll.) when eventually things get back to normal after that first year or so.

Nevermind the first year actually, the first 3 months would be a challenge.


I personally like to think that normally we wouldn't have shtf events take that long before some other State, country or anyone came along and gave the desperate a hand up but maybe they might take advantage of the situation when we are weak.

The reality is however something like a very large asteroid hitting the planet is possible, even if it's unlikely to be a planet killer, it still may sting for a while.

Last edited by sealocan; 07-16-2018 at 12:02 PM..
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Old 07-16-2018, 12:13 PM
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If you have a paid security force then there must be a significant incentive of some sort that can be controlled by you and will be enough to keep them in the game. This might mean keeping their families as part of your collective retreat to further incentivize their efforts, or it could be a large monetary reward when society returns to a norm (think gold bars in a far away bank?). The Billionaire will likely not be the leader of his security operations.
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Old 07-16-2018, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by KevinB View Post
This place just jumped off the silly cliff.
Did you even check the link? It's an article on CNBC. Those are real billionaires in charge of real Wall Street investment banks who built those bunkers and who are asking this question to the famous futurist guy/college professor they hired.
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Old 07-16-2018, 1:27 PM
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If you have a paid security force then there must be a significant incentive of some sort that can be controlled by you and will be enough to keep them in the game. This might mean keeping their families as part of your collective retreat to further incentivize their efforts, or it could be a large monetary reward when society returns to a norm (think gold bars in a far away bank?). The Billionaire will likely not be the leader of his security operations.
I agree with you.
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Old 07-16-2018, 1:54 PM
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Did you even check the link? It's an article on CNBC. Those are real billionaires in charge of real Wall Street investment banks who built those bunkers and who are asking this question to the famous futurist guy/college professor they hired.
Silly people with a boat load of money are still silly.
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Old 07-16-2018, 2:29 PM
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You won't. At least not the ones witb any family.

I don't care how much you pay me.......I am ditching you so I can go protect my family.

You gonna house my family too? That's what it would take. So I guess that is the answer.

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Old 07-16-2018, 3:18 PM
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You have to be a leader....that includes being bad @ss enough to be the boss and physically assert that leadership if need be.

He is right in thinking that if things go sideways, and there is no law, Violence will be the order of the day. And if you are not able to meet that violence with greater violence of action....you are done.

.
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Old 07-16-2018, 5:52 PM
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New world, new rules and money has no value.

The Alpha Male will emerge and the rest will blindly follow.

The Laws of Nature are immutable no matter what homo sapien thinks or does.
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Old 07-16-2018, 5:58 PM
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whoever controls the food, fuel and supplies controls the people that need them to survive.

who run bartertown?
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Old 07-16-2018, 10:12 PM
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build robots as guards. WTF...talk about jumping off the silly cliff. it sounds like a child imaginations
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Old 07-17-2018, 6:44 PM
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Originally Posted by UFO hunter View Post
Interesting problem for the billionaire prepper (yes that's a real thing).

---
Finally, the CEO of a brokerage house explained that he had nearly completed building his own underground bunker system and asked, “How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?”

The Event. That was their euphemism for the environmental collapse, social unrest, nuclear explosion, unstoppable virus...
Buy your own island (that's what Larry Ellison did.)

Have the boss choose your security crew very selectively, people with limited family.

Then stock deep, invite the girlfriends if needed, make it so everyone has a vested interest in coming out the other side alive. And be prepared to reward others when the problems end... (Note girl friends would also need to be screened.)

(I assume that material costs to support such operations are negligible compared to total wealth.)
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Old 07-17-2018, 7:55 PM
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Every dictator in the history had this problem. The answer is a ruthless, efficient Praetorian Guard that offers unquestioning loyalty in exchange for exceptional privilege and position. This "elite force" is used to police the regular forces.

Roman Emperors = Praetorian Guard
Hitler = SS
Stalin = NKVD
Mao = Red Guards
Imperial Japan WW2 = Kenpeitai
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Old 07-17-2018, 8:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Californio View Post

The Alpha Male will emerge and the rest will blindly follow.
Four other possibilities: (1) intelligent analysis results in the judgement that following A would be the best course; (2) coercion from other followers of A; (3) A is too distasteful, so potential followers break from the group; (4) as (3), except another candidate B suits the group better, so B and followers attempt to evict A and followers from the group.
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Old 07-17-2018, 9:32 PM
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Easy.

Two main compounds. One interior to the other. The outer compound area has the guards. Their job, if they want to eat well and have the amenities, protect the entire compound. Inner compound is where the rich dick lives and is essentially inaccessible from the outside compound (or world). He pays the guards with meals and booze, they protect the place. Any unrest or aggression toward the rich dick result in rations for those participating being eliminated and distributed to the other, loyal guards. Basically, loyalty pays.

Personally I'm gonna take over my neighborhood, blow up whatever I have to around the perimeter to make it impassable and relax on my rooftop hide. Eating steak, eggs, coffee and booze...eat it suckers!!!



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Old 07-17-2018, 10:17 PM
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Reason, charisma and a ruthless iron fist. In that order.
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Old 07-18-2018, 3:02 AM
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In Kali, bad juju could happen in a blink.
To me, it's the luck of the draw. Biblical, if you will
It's either total, apocalypse, or a bump in the road.
Worst case but survivable, you have to last 1 growing season.
You have to be hooked up in ag production, which in Kali, is year round.
Stores of food are essential for X days, but will exhaust.
Bulk nut stores are vast, with tonnage from Bakersfield to Chico.
Same with beans & rice.
The first real likely hood is that ALL water supply will sever to the metro areas, as collateral damage to the systems occur.
You need a crew that money can't buy, but couldn't hurt to have a stash pile. PAX
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Old 07-18-2018, 10:45 PM
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There will always be those that lead and those that follow. And there will always be those that are willing to be lead and do whatever it takes to survive. Sadly, the worst situations bring out the worst people. All they’ll need is someone telling them what to do. So the first thing isn’t “how do I...?”, but rather “what am I willing to ask others to do?”

If one can guarantee some a measure of security and also give some a level of responsibility and power, then they’re set.

The references to the SS or red guards or kenpetai aren’t relevant because those were structured, ordered societies with a high degree of order. And those were in societies where the culture was already well developed to follow rulers and not question.

Loyalty is the hardest of traits to purchase and even harder to measure. The best bet would be a co-op, or some situation where all members have a vested interest in it, and one where loss of members would be detrimental.


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Old 07-19-2018, 8:39 AM
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People need a reason to do things that may be repugnant to their culture/beliefs/moral compass. Given the right circumstances they can function inside a very evil world and thrive without guilt. "I was a soldier and I was just following orders.".

The Milgram experiment on obedience to authority.
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Old 07-19-2018, 9:48 AM
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Intelligent Analysis goes out the door when the SHTF, the Propensity for Humans to rationalize their behavior becomes King. Study the Nazi invasion of France or Holland and the governments that kissed their arse and the people that resisted.

Better yet one of my favorite books on the subject "Lord of the Flies"

In Business School we spent several semesters on "Behavior in Organizations" taught by a shrink, it was interesting to look at the dynamics of behavior using the class as the experiment and we were not under stress.

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Four other possibilities: (1) intelligent analysis results in the judgement that following A would be the best course; (2) coercion from other followers of A; (3) A is too distasteful, so potential followers break from the group; (4) as (3), except another candidate B suits the group better, so B and followers attempt to evict A and followers from the group.
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Old 07-19-2018, 11:10 AM
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Originally Posted by OCEquestrian View Post
Every dictator in the history had this problem. The answer is a ruthless, efficient Praetorian Guard that offers unquestioning loyalty in exchange for exceptional privilege and position. This "elite force" is used to police the regular forces.

Roman Emperors = Praetorian Guard
Hitler = SS
Stalin = NKVD
Mao = Red Guards
Imperial Japan WW2 = Kenpeitai
The red guards were just useful student idiots who were handy to have to hold rallies and f with people, they were more like the SA to the SS. THey were disbanded very quickly once the task of physically removing previous government officials to be replaced by people perceived loyal to Mao. I read that the disbanding was just two years after their creation in 66, and the PLA was sent in to clean up the mess and boy were the troops happy to do so after the students f'ed with their previous commanders. Mao's most useful too was dividing and conquering.
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Old 07-19-2018, 11:22 AM
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No one is going to give a rats *** about your authority once your check book is worthless. Rich boy needs to learn how to defend himself because nobody else is going to care unless you are one nice person and you shoot anybody that disagrees with you.

It's a dog eat dog works and when total SHTF the dogs are going to run wild
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Old 07-19-2018, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by UFO hunter View Post
Interesting problem for the billionaire prepper (yes that's a real thing).



---

Finally, the CEO of a brokerage house explained that he had nearly completed building his own underground bunker system and asked, “How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?”



The Event. That was their euphemism for the environmental collapse, social unrest, nuclear explosion, unstoppable virus...



This single question occupied us for the rest of the hour. They knew armed guards would be required to protect their compounds from the angry mobs. But how would they pay the guards once money was worthless? What would stop the guards from choosing their own leader? The billionaires considered using special combination locks on the food supply that only they knew. Or making guards wear disciplinary collars of some kind in return for their survival. Or maybe building robots to serve as guards and workers — if that technology could be developed in time.



https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/11/surv...us-behind.html


Good luck with that. During and after Katrina a large percentage of the NOPD fled. Your money will be worthless, so unless you plan to pay them in gold or silver, don’t expect them to stick around. In any event they aren’t going to take a bullet for you. The may even whack you and steal all you have.


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Old 07-19-2018, 12:03 PM
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We all have our personal agenda. In a survival situation, the agenda is me and mine. How do you control your security? You don't, you trust them unless you have a physical device that will take them out if they don't perform as ordered. The human condition is that, many will simply say "screw it" and take the rich guy with them. Rich people want it all, in the end, we all die, rich, poor, black and white. The thing about computerizing your consciousness is, there is a delete button somewhere, lol.
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Old 07-19-2018, 12:19 PM
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Old 07-19-2018, 12:36 PM
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An old saying "Blood is thicker than water"

Been doing a bit of genealogical work lately, families survived in Indian Territories post American Revolution by intermarrying and forming family alliances, safety in numbers and they worked as a unit, with a family head, they also had a religious head in their settlements that brought a cohesive element to daily life. The obits always mention the church they attended.

Take a bunch of non related people and put them together, it will not be cohesive, one of the big problems of modern society, in takes generations to form the bonds.

That is why the military breaks them down and builds them up to create a cohesive unit in their image.
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Old 07-19-2018, 11:22 PM
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Originally Posted by FeuerFrei View Post
Given the right circumstances they can function inside a very evil world and thrive without guilt. "I was a soldier and I was just following orders.".

The Milgram experiment on obedience to authority.
"without guilt" is not what the Milgram experiments showed. Only a few people did that. Many were very distressed and felt horrible, but still followed directions.
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Old 07-20-2018, 9:19 AM
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If you have to ask a question like this, you are not in charge and never will be.

Family is everything.
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Old 07-20-2018, 10:29 AM
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One thing I learn watching the world is that there is almost never a time when someone does not claim to be in control and the law of the land of any particular area.

All the preppers that think things turn into a zombie survival film would need events to be quite different from what typically happens to have anything close to that.

Government is armed men that force you to pay them taxes to fund their activities and then tell you what you can and cannot do. They often outlaw people having arms anywhere near as good as them, and then buy the best arms with the taxes you are forced to pay.
Some are good and adhere to principals others do not and many fall in between, but that is at its most basic a government.
They gain some acceptance and approval which helps their longevity and reduces armed rebellions and coups by providing security and holding predators accountable in the short term and over time dealing with additional concerns of the population.

You see this around the world whenever a place loses the existing government. Someone fills the security vacuum within a month or so. Some are more corrupt, require bribes or checkpoints you have to pay to go through, while others, often those religiously dedicated, adhere to a higher calling and tend to be less corrupt and as a result get more support from the general population. Look at Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood when the government let the people vote and the government was not providing security for awhile. The government stopped providing services thinking the people would become coyed and want law and order, and someone else came in and filled the vacuum then won the elections as a result.
In really desperate times even law enforcement become predatory, they have families to feed too. When food and water become hard to come by, a percentage will become just as predatory and be even better at it than your typical criminal, while acting under the guise of lawful authority.


So there is almost never going to be a time when someone is not claiming to be in control. How much control they actually exert in the area you are in may vary, but they will claim to be in control. So the idea of lawlessness and long term survival unless most of the population is dead or dying is fantasy. Someone always claims to be the law. A new government replaces any that cease to function within a month, even if all they are is armed bandits that have better equipment, tactics, or numbers than anyone else they come across and so call the shots.
In most regional short term collapses people will be held accountable for what they can be months down the road. Just look at Katrina. Lawless for a time, roving bands of law enforcement that would disarm you and then leave the area, leaving you vulnerable to roaming bands of predators. Then after some time law is restored and those found to have committed various crimes during the time of lawlessness are punished, and held to a standard of civil society even though the required mindset and the situation may have not allowed you to follow the laws of civil society and prevail.

Last edited by Lawbitercitizen; 07-20-2018 at 1:16 PM..
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Old 07-20-2018, 10:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Lawbitercitizen View Post
One thing I learn watching the world is that there is almost never a time when someone does not claim to be in control and the law of the land of any particular area.



All the preppers that think things turn into a zombie survival film would need events to be quite different from what typically happens to have anything close to that.



Government is armed men that force you to pay them taxes to fund their activities and then tell you what you can and cannot do. They often outlaw people having arms anywhere near as good as them, and then by the best arms with the taxes you are forced to pay.

Some are good and adhere to principals others do not and many fall in between, but that is at its most basic government.

They gain some acceptance and approval which helps their longevity and reduces armed rebellions by providing security and holding predators accountable in the short term and over time additional concerns of the population.



You see this around the world whenever a place loses the existing government. Someone fills the security vacuum within a month or so. Some are more corrupt, require bribes or checkpoints you have to pay to go through, while others, often those religiously dedicated adhere to a higher calling and tend to be less corrupt and as a result get more support from the general population. Look at Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood when the government let the people vote and the government was not providing security for awhile.





So there is almost never going to be a time when someone is not claiming to be in control. How much control they actually exert in the area you are in may vary, but they will claim to be in control. So the idea of lawlessness is fantasy. Someone always claims to be the law. A new government replaces any that cease to function within a month, even if all they are is armed bandits that have better equipment, tactics, or numbers than anyone else they come across and so call the shots.

In most regional short term collapses people will be held accountable for what they can be months down the road. Just look at Katrina. Lawless for a time, roving bands of law enforcement that would disarm you and then leave the area, leaving you vulnerable to roaming bands of predators. Then after some time law is restored and those found to have committed various crimes during the time of lawlessness punished, and held to standard of civil society even though the required mindset and the situation may have not allowed you to follow the laws of civil society and prevail.


Some countries do better under a brutal dictatorship. Many Iranians would like to see the aged Clerics gone if favor of the return of a progressive monarchy. Many Iraqis would prefer a return of Sadam rather than live in a continued state of revolution. Libya (Clinton’s Arab Spring) is now an ungovernable conflict of warring tribes.

Imposing Democracy on people that don’t want it or understand it has been an historical failure.
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Old 07-20-2018, 12:00 PM
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Rich people can adhere to impractical laws by having a security team that has to follow rules of engagement that mean someone gets hurt or killed by any competent attacker but creates no criminal liability to the rich person employing them. This means they are rules of engagement that would not have kept your family safe if only you or others in your family were responsible for their own security.


This method of accomplishing security won't work for a normal family, because you will fail your family before being able to respond if you allow predatory threats to remove your tactical advantage. Many threats in real breakdown of society have superior numbers because they are groups of people either exploiting the situation for gain or people having a hard time out looting as a team and willing to use violence to take from you to provide for their own family or gang, so once they get into a position of equality on your own property or home, they have greater numbers and an advantage.
Looters and rioters and people intent on victimizing you can easily be the predator and as the aggressor not on their own property they are more likely to get away with things.
But using force on them too early results in a twisted version of an innocent desperate person viciously victimized by you months later when society is back to normal. So it is a hard situation where you are on your own, without backup, facing people that may get away with you or loved one's assault or murder during lawless times, when even theft of your supplies or equipment like generator or its fuel (and everyone will be short of gas) outside could leave you in bad shape, but will be judged by people applying the rules of calm civil society to your actions after the fact. You don't get to use lethal force to defend property, and going out to confront a group means they can swarm you and overpower you even unarmed if allowed close and do whatever they want up to and including serious injury or death of you and or loved ones when they control the situation. Or just as easily kill you or otherwise prevail pulling weapons when you confront them from a position that doesn't give you a significant advantage.
You think life is fair and when government is not there for you they will suddenly change the rules for you? That group of thugs that would have beat, raped, robbed, or looted your family are just as easily seen as poor victims, the local minority or choir boys just out trying to ask for supplies.
And it is far easier to get away with being the attacker during lawlessness. While the good guys try to play by the rules or wait until the bad guy breaks into their home, the bad guy upset with you can just molotov your house or do a driveby shooting. If you don't secure an area you can't really control things well, and state law doesn't really let you do that. In fact technically even someone climbing your fences is just a trespasser.


Quote:
Many Iraqis would prefer a return of Sadam rather than live in a continued state of revolution. Libya (Clinton’s Arab Spring) is now an ungovernable conflict of warring tribes.

Imposing Democracy on people that don’t want it or understand it has been an historical failure.
My understanding is that a big part of what allowed the Islamic State to control so much of the nation beyond the brutal tactics they used or the long term disenfranchisement of the Sunni by the US backed Shia government was that they actually managed to better provide running water, sewage systems, and other basic services than the Iraqi government had been. The Iraqi government focusing more on maintaining the government than providing for the needs of the people. An insurgency getting bombed and facing constant airstrikes kept services running better than the official government with far more resources.

Democracy requires a decent population to work. A population that votes for what is just and right, not what is best for themselves but harmful to others. Consider the quote:
'Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for dinner.'
When the population is more wolves than lambs that is what happens.
That is why the Bill of Rights is supposed to be a foundation of what rights everyone has that people cannot vote to take away and government cannot easily remove. Because pure democracy is far too fickle and rights would come and go as easily and as frequently as the party in office changes.
The balance between people having representation and rights having longevity is a tough balance the founders tried to meet.


When the 51% of the population with less votes for the possessions of the other 49%, often in the form of taxes that are then redistributed, it causes problems, and I believe is why the founders limited voting to property owners. They were preventing democracy from just becoming Communism or severe Socialism.
The flip side is government is required to secure fair work hours, methods, safety, etc because business has shown itself to be greedy and will turn the population into 80% slaves while over exploiting resources and trashing our planet for short term gain if allowed. Trickle down alone doesn't work because competition cutting costs at the expense of its workers can outcompete and sets a new baseline, and there is always motivation for the competition to do the same without those at the top cutting their own quality of life standard. A constant pressure to do more for less at everyone's expense except their own. A global economy and 'free trade' increases this trend.
Greed is the enemy on both sides.
Too big of government though results in something closer to communism anyway, because government makes no money, consumes a lot to provide a little, and once too many people work for government they are biased towards voting for their own employment even when it requires unrealistic expenditure.
The hard part is the middle ground where the poor don't get to vote themselves a disproportionately better life at other's expense, but the rich don't get to create an Oligarchy that maintains law and order for primarily their benefit.

It is a balance that requires a somewhat balanced and reasonable population to work. Trying to apply anything close to it to an unbalanced population fails. This is partially why such a rapid population change in California is creating trouble. One of the most expensive places to live becoming a sanctuary state that doesn't follow immigration laws, and where the only way for poor people to live a decent quality of life here is by having 8-20 living in a household off the books. Growing the number of those that will give birth to a large number of discontent citizens that will outvote everyone else while exhausting the budget that could have otherwise provided more for the needy. It is a recipe for some serious redistribution of the wealth of others in the not too distant future. So don't feel too superior to other nations.

Last edited by Lawbitercitizen; 07-20-2018 at 2:05 PM..
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