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  #1  
Old 02-12-2017, 12:54 PM
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Default Anyone think C&R prices are going to fall off?

Hi all:

I have been reading and thinking, including the thread here on the Santa Barbara Historical Arms Show, that it is a distinct possibility that in a few years, it's entirely possible that C&R gun prices may drop. A lot. Think about it, the population at most C&R shops, shows, on the CMP forum and like-minded boards is aging. Most people of the gun under age 45 don't even know what a C&R is, much less have an interest in collecting them and shooting them like we do. Non standard, rare calibers, after Prop 63 goes into effect, will become even more difficult to obtain for the average shooter. I keep buying C&Rs from a collection where a C&R guy died and his wife keeps selling the guns off on consignment. She is doing okay on them but the point is, with fewer and fewer C&R collectors, prices will drop because there will be fewer potential buyers, lower demand and a surplus of surplus arms. I am just curious where all of you think the C&R market will be in say, 2021?

Please discuss, I would like to hear your ideas on all of this. Since I have been into C&Rs (only about five years), most prices have done nothing but climb but I am wondering if this will continue, stagnate or if prices will drop off? What will a 91/30 be worth in 2021? What about a NIB Tula '55 SKS?
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Last edited by Capybara; 02-12-2017 at 2:32 PM..
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Old 02-12-2017, 1:10 PM
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Yes they will drop and some are dropping. As more large collections come available for sale there will be less buyers, who have less disposable income, and who are paying a lot more than the seller did. Old timers with 700 rifle collections were paying $30 a rifle. Even with inflation that is less than $100 a rifle that they paid. Thus when the old timers start dying off or selling off there will be a surplus on the market and prices will drop.

I am already seeing price drops from the highs over the summer. Not counting Classic's outlier prices a Refurb 91/30 was going for $330. Now $200. It will be $150. Matching K98k Mausers were getting $1,800+ now it is closer to $1,200. They will hold around $1,000. RC Mausers were going for $600. Now $400. They will be $250. Enfields have dropped from $500-600 to $300-400. They should hold. Others have skyrocketed lately like the FN-49. I expect they will be around $1,000 but right now prices are all over the place. Finnish Mosins are also up in the $600-900 price range they will drop back down to $400-500.

I think what is causing the best items to reap huge selling prices at auctions is amateur investors. The same ones that caused the housing bubble and stock tech bubble in the late 1990s. All bubbles pop. We are forming a Classic Bubble with Milsurps. High Prices, slight pull back, next will be another price increase, then the unsustainable prices will drop like a a lead balloon. Hopefully they hold at the prices I predict. They could go even lower of the bubble bursts especially like other collectible bubbles. Think Beanie Babies.

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  #3  
Old 02-12-2017, 1:22 PM
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There are too many wild cards to make any sort of scientific conclusion. Dirt cheap attic finds, phony auctions with shill winning bids, estate sales with large commissions, and whales who buy up the best specimens without regard to price all factor in. Not to mention "reputable" C&R dealers who repeatedly sell specific firearms "for the last time ever" and dupe ignorant buyers into a perceived good deal that really isn't.

On top of that, you have to laugh at the endless "What's this worth" threads that receive low ball answers from potential buyers and high ball answers from potential sellers.

On the other hand, I am sure that every year a chunk of existing milsurps get bubba'd, ruined, blown up, or dumped at gun buybacks. It is really hard to answer these types of questions.
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Old 02-12-2017, 1:34 PM
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We also have to consider ammo supplies. I am continually amazed at how cheaply bonafide 100% original Arisakas can be had for peanuts. Ammo! Or lack of it..

Before anyone responds with the knee jerk response "Meh, just reload.. it is cheap and easy!" it must be realized that a lot of people (including me at the moment) do not have the time, interest, or attention span needed to set up a reloading bench and make ammo. There is a convenience factor that in many cases overshadows the long term savings of reloading, not to mention the large initial investment that reloaders conveniently glaze over when boasting of how clever they are and all the money they are saving.
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Old 02-12-2017, 1:43 PM
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I am of the opinion that deals are always out there to be had, regardless of the trend of the market.

While others are reminiscing about the good old days of barrels of mosins for $29 and scoffing at people paying current market prices just last year I picked up a package deal including an all matching VKT M39, an Arisaka, and three Tilka 91/30 Mosins for a grand total of $385.

The Tikkas were project rifles and I cleaned them up, kept one and sold the other two for $375. So I ended up with an M39, Arisaka, and round receiver Tilkka 91/30 for $10 bucks.
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Old 02-12-2017, 2:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ricigliano View Post
There is a convenience factor that in many cases overshadows the long term savings of reloading, not to mention the large initial investment that reloaders conveniently glaze over when boasting of how clever they are and all the money they are saving.
I started reloading 40+ years ago so my initial investment was amortized a L-O-N-G time ago. So yes, the savings in rolling my own are quite substantial.
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Old 02-12-2017, 2:41 PM
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If you look at the actual realized prices at some of the major auctions, prices are skyrocketing...

This question has been floated for decades... The answer has always been, no, prices of good quality C&R's will continue to rise..

It's been proven over and over.
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Old 02-12-2017, 2:47 PM
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To be fair Bobby, I get the objections by many about reloading, but I can tell you that most new reloaders buy way too much stuff, fancy Dillons and lots of cool toys like annealers, Giraud trimmers, etc. If one seriously wants to reload, mainly to feed an obscure caliber like that, you'd be amazed at what can be done with hardly any investment. My point is, most of the gloss over factor is because many people are lazy, they want it to come easier and they pay for convenience. I look at my own bench and I have a good chunk of change tied up in it, even though I don't have any Dillons or even a progressive press.

To just start off, one can get set up with enough gear and components to do basic, simple reloading for one caliber under $200.00, possibly less. It will be a lot more tedious than those who have wet tumblers and every accessory and toy on the reloading market. But it can be done and there are some minimalist reloaders who do exactly that. They aren't into reloading because it's a hobby and art unto itself, they are strictly utilitarian cheapskates. Nothing wrong with that, but most of us get sucked into reloading, much like you have been sucked into C&R buying. You probably didn't think when you got your first FFL03 + COE that you would end up getting as "into it" as you have. Reloading is the same, it's very easy to make it quicker, easier and more fun by buying toys that help accelerate the process and make it reloading more enjoyable and less tedious.

Here's a Lee Loader kit for .223 for $25.00 on Amazon. Add a rubber mallet from Harbor Freight for $5.00 and you have a press. Buy an RCBS close out beam scale or a cheap digital scale, a pound of powder and a box of bullets and you are reloading. Granted, it will be a bit tedious and take longer but the ammo produced will be no better or worse than if the same reloader made it on a Dillon 1050.

Not many reload with the Lee Loader kit, but just trying to illustrate that reloading can be taken wherever you want as far as dollar outlay. Now time, that's a whole other subject. ;-)
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  #9  
Old 02-12-2017, 2:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SVT-40 View Post
If you look at the actual realized prices at some of the major auctions, prices are skyrocketing...

This question has been floated for decades... The answer has always been, no, prices of good quality C&R's will continue to rise..

It's been proven over and over.
You've been at this for a lot longer than I have and your collection is much more comprehensive than mine so you probably are right, but there does seem to a somewhat of a wholesale change in the forces that drive the market, its sort of a microcosm of the entire gun market and hunting market. Then again, you live in a free state with a "normal" gun culture and those of us who live behind enemy lines experience the gun market and gun culture in the Commifornia bubble.

Here, I have three relatives and two friends, all under 35, who have recently, with my help, "gotten into guns". All of the five have shot my C&Rs and liked them, but when the rubber hit the road, they all bought Glocks and ARs, not a single C&R. To me, with my microscopic focus group, it seems as if only olds like us are into C&Rs enough to buy and collect them. Same thing I see whenever I go into a gun store that sells regular and C&R guns. The old guys hang out at the end of the store with the C&Rs but when anyone under 40 comes in, they end up buying a Glock, S&W or an AR/10/22/bolt deer rifle/modern shotgun. When I ask my friend the gun store owner who buys C&Rs, it's almost always "old geezers", not the 30 and 40 somethings. Perhaps there are still enough old geezers and younger geezers like me to drive the market five years from now? I don't know.

Guess I am considering the underlying causes that drive demand more than the market itself. But it is true, overall, even in the measly five years I have been into C&Rs, I have even seen the prices on the lowliest Mosin 91/30 that I picked up at Big 5 for $89.00 in 2013 fetch $250.00 today. I thought it was worth discussing at least.
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  #10  
Old 02-12-2017, 3:12 PM
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For those that say prices never drop how many $1,000 SKS sales have you seen? Bubbles always always burst. I think we will see a Silver Age of Milsurps in the next 5-10 years. Look at the collections that have come up for sale recently. RollzRoyce, his father, and cousin on gunbroker. JPS is going to sell his. A large Mauser Collection is about to be sold. A few more guys with 700-1000 firearms collections start selling there won't be enough buyers.

Ammo definitely is a factor. That's one reason why Arisakas, Mannlichers, Lebels, Carcanos, and even Enfields lagged behind Mosins, Springfields, and Mausers as prices increased.

Top end items will always have buyers. See baseball cards.

Bobby is right it is hard to predict anything with 100% certainty. If someone could they would be very rich. My advice is don't overpay unless it is something you must have. Don't buy Milsurps as an investment. Buy them for the enjoyment of collecting. If you want to invest pick a fund with a good historic return and solid manager. If there are Milsurps that are undervalued right now I believe it is the Enfields, Arisakas, and French MAS Rifles. They all have history behind them and room to increase in price. Up until the last couple months Swedish Mausers and FN49 were undervalued IMO, but the history isn't there for many of them like it is for the others.

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Old 02-12-2017, 3:29 PM
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One thing that may hook a younger generation into C&R's are video games (Battlefield 1 is an example). My 13 year old has only been shooting for 2 years now, but he started asking me about old military rifles before that. He'd been playing one of the WWII video games and said something about Arisakas. He got all excited when I told him we have one, lol. Now he shoots regularly and his favorite guns are C&Rs. He'd rather shoot the Garand or Enfield than the AR, and he chooses to shoot P-38s over modern handguns.

A lot of his fellow boy scouts really like the Garands and M1 carbines in particular.
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Old 02-12-2017, 3:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capybara View Post
To be fair Bobby, I get the objections by many about reloading, but I can tell you that most new reloaders buy way too much stuff, fancy Dillons and lots of cool toys like annealers, Giraud trimmers, etc. If one seriously wants to reload, mainly to feed obscure caliber like, you'd be amazed at what can be done with hardly any investment. My point is, most of the gloss over factor is because many people are lazy, they want it to come easier and they pay for convenience. I look at my own bench and I have a good chunk of change tied up in it, even though I don't have any Dillons or even a progressive press.
Freely willing to pay for convenience and placing a dollar value on one's leisure time has nothing to do with being lazy. Was it lazy the last time you stopped at the drive-thru because you didn't feel like cooking? Ever driven to a car wash and sat in the shade while someone else detailed your car?
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Old 02-12-2017, 3:36 PM
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I would just add that there will always be a new generation of younger people getting into C & R guns. I'm in my early 40s, just got into collecting in the last couple years. The main reason I got into C & R is because I love history and that there has been a big group of young C & R fans on YouTube posting good videos online. Plenty of collectors like iraqiveteran8888 online who are young and passionate about milsurps make me think that the demand for C & R is not going down anytime soon!
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Old 02-12-2017, 3:38 PM
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Also, the other week at the range I was talking with a couple 18/19 year olds - one was saving up for a Garand, the other was planning on buying a Mosin shortly.
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Old 02-12-2017, 3:42 PM
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If so inclined, it is always useful to watch the market and take note of trends. I don't consider this work because I enjoy it. For example, Swiss GP11 ammo has recently reappeared on the market after being gone for over a year. During that time the secondary market was bearing a price of about $1 per round and Swiss rifles were correspondingly cheaper. GP11 ammo is now plentiful and dramatically cheaper. This has unsurprisingly spiked the Swiss milsurp market, and K31's are routinely $500 nowadays.

I reluctantly bought a PU sniper from AIM a few years ago just because I didn't have one. It was about $550 at the time. I paid $700 for my second one and now they are all around $850 - $1000.

On the flip side, a huge price spike in SKS rifles was predicted as the Sino-Soviets became exhausted and the platform became more popular, not to mention very cheap ammo prices.

As a big fan and owner of a lot of SKS rifles, I admit that hasn't really happened. The prices and demand have been pretty flat. A few places are still selling the cosmo dunked beaters for $300, same price as 3 years ago.
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Old 02-12-2017, 4:26 PM
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Interestingly enough I've been thinking about this lately.

I got into C&Rs heavily 1.5 years ago so buying $4-500 RC K98s is the norm for me. The question I have is the old timers with 200+ gun collections will they actually "flood" the market?

Variables to consider;
-Heirs are actual shooters so large collection is distributed amongst the family.

-Big auction house facilitates the sale of the estate so more eyes, higher prices and my personal favorite the 20% internet premium.

-Heir's go to a pawn shop and get hosed, pawn shop being savvy flips them for a hefty price since they know the market.

-Widow etc disposes of rifles -> scrap metal

So my question is how can the average collector have a shot at these big collections? No crystal ball but I think in todays day and age with the internet you would be hard pressed to find a deal. For every attic/closet find there is probably 3 times that many of people that think their uncles mismatched luger is worth the same money as a matching example just because its the first thing they saw on Gunbroker.

I mean eventually you run out of room or money, so i've been contemplating which direction I want to go.
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Old 02-12-2017, 4:30 PM
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Most of the 20 somethings have no interest in guns, support 0bama and Hillary. Really

Think that's going to affect the market 10 years from now?
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Old 02-12-2017, 4:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ricigliano View Post
We also have to consider ammo supplies. I am continually amazed at how cheaply bonafide 100% original Arisakas can be had for peanuts. Ammo! Or lack of it..

Before anyone responds with the knee jerk response "Meh, just reload.. it is cheap and easy!" it must be realized that a lot of people (including me at the moment) do not have the time, interest, or attention span needed to set up a reloading bench and make ammo. There is a convenience factor that in many cases overshadows the long term savings of reloading, not to mention the large initial investment that reloaders conveniently glaze over when boasting of how clever they are and all the money they are saving.
Some buy everything new. It's not that expensive at all. My first rig was used and my current one I'm in for less than 100 bucks. That's one die set, the press and a scale.
Of course I've expanded on it due to the number of calibers but if it was just one caliber you can get by on the cheap.
I can understand the excuses but mostly it's just fear.
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Old 02-12-2017, 4:37 PM
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For me, it's been the luck of the draw. I've been at it 50+ years, and I've never needed an 03, because I have done good on the street. They would have to open the flood gates of trade restrictions before it would affect the investment I have in my own iron.

Even since C&R cash & carry got banned, my FFLs haven't bent me over. Like Bobby, I'm an SKS junkie, and have recently picked up 3 from out of state that are waiting in jail. I let my FFL know that they were coming, they waited until all 3 showed up and put them on one DROS.

I also traded 2 mongrel SKSs and 2 Big 5 Mosins for an SVT40 from another FFL. He did the paper as part of the deal. He'll be able to move 4 guns easier at fair price, than 1 $1200-$1500 rifle.

Our money will be worth less, before C&R prices goes down drastically.

I do air cooled VWs, Sunbeam Tigers, & AMXs. Seen what a split window bus goes for these days? Turned over a few C&R flying machines too. PAX
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Old 02-12-2017, 5:01 PM
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I think the major factor that will effect the value of guns in general, not just C&R, is the Trump presidency. Honestly, Trump is bad for the gun industry. The various "incidents" that create such high demand with a anti in the White house spurred millions upon millions of extra sales. The joke is Obama was the gun salesman of the decade.

Now that the pressure is off, and the fed judicary is about to be overhauled, as well as new SCOTUS, I don't think the same pressure will be on the public to make a decision to buy. That means decreased sales, and I would not be surprised if they are significantly effected if there is a second term.

That's the irony of gun politics. C&R has it's own bubble, but now that the heat is off people will also loose a little interest. Add to this the real possibility many import bans and other restrictions might go away, increasing the amount of C&R coming in.

This effect does not apply to guns that clearly have no more supply left, like german mausers, most domestic military rifles, etc. If the supply doesn't exist, then prices will remain the same and probably still go up, just not as much as they have in the last 10 years.

Think of all the artificial barriers to getting an SVT-40 from Canada or getting a garand from South Korea. Those restrictions might be vapor before long.
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Old 02-12-2017, 5:24 PM
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I know this thread is not a buyer's guide to acquiring C&R's, but I will offer this:

Keep a small slush fund available for any hot deals that pop up out of the blue. I will bet all of us have seen a desirable item pop up that sends your gun buying impulse from 0-60 immediately. For me, it is usually something that wasn't on my radar but suddenly a must have. A lot of the great deals get claimed in SECONDS so you have to act fast.
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Old 02-12-2017, 5:32 PM
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not a chance,My son in law and grand son love shooting C&R.Like land they are not making it anymore. I have had no luck getting a plane jane Mosin 91 30 for under 200 dollars. The availability has dried up but interest is high.
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Old 02-12-2017, 5:36 PM
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I remember post 1986, when the flood of new imports came into the US...., Many were predicting a crash of C&R prices... If anything it actually increased prices... Some pieces did suffer a bit of a down turn, but they made that up in a few years...

There are only a few caches of undiscovered or un-imported rifles left...Even if Canadian rifles were to be imported that would only last a few months....Then prices would bounce back...If they took a hit at all...

Look at the prices Classic is getting...It's just mind boggling...But at the end of the day people paid those prices...

Bottom line if you like collecting these guns, do it for the pleasure , and don't think about it being an investment...

As Bobby said above always have money in your pocket, because you never know what is going to pop up...
And If you snooze you loose.
Don't set it down or walk away. If you like it buy it!!!

And always buy quality!!!
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Old 02-12-2017, 5:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freonr22 View Post
Most of the 20 somethings have no interest in guns, support 0bama and Hillary. Really

Think that's going to affect the market 10 years from now?
Depends on what area of the country. Many of those folks are also pro gun. I also see a slippage in price on some C&R guns but not all. Lots of factors. I also worry about this with S&W revolvers and similar guns I collect and have mass amounts of. I am in very early middle age so this may effect me at retirement age when I sell off a lot.
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Old 02-12-2017, 5:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Bobby Ricigliano View Post
I know this thread is not a buyer's guide to acquiring C&R's, but I will offer this:

Keep a small slush fund available for any hot deals that pop up out of the blue. I will bet all of us have seen a desirable item pop up that sends your gun buying impulse from 0-60 immediately. For me, it is usually something that wasn't on my radar but suddenly a must have. A lot of the great deals get claimed in SECONDS so you have to act fast.
I learned this lesson long ago. If you have the means do it. Good thing to do in life regardless of guns. I once went to a gun show with $1600 and left with $2. Never again. I now bring $3-5000 cash when out prowling for guns.
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Old 02-12-2017, 6:12 PM
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I am only 22, and I only own one new gun out of a collection of nine. All the rest are c&r eligible. Many of the other young gun owners I know have some interest in C&R's, but not too many are all about them like I am. As said above, Battlefield 1 will surely spark interest into C&R guns. We've seen it happen with call of duty before.


As for the market, my speculation is that any drop in price will be miniscule. The reason for this is that retailers have already seen that they can charge somewhat of a premium and still sell enough product to make a desirable profit. Since so many current buyers have accepted this high price as the norm, all the retailers have to do to increase sales is cut the price $50-100 and people will swarm to buy them. Gun owners go crazy over the smallest price differences it's insane.
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Old 02-12-2017, 6:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ricigliano View Post
I know this thread is not a buyer's guide to acquiring C&R's, but I will offer this:

Keep a small slush fund available for any hot deals that pop up out of the blue. I will bet all of us have seen a desirable item pop up that sends your gun buying impulse from 0-60 immediately. For me, it is usually something that wasn't on my radar but suddenly a must have. A lot of the great deals get claimed in SECONDS so you have to act fast.
^^^This. It's the same with anything collectable. I buy most any SKS at 3 bills, any pre '72 VW T1 at $1500, weather they has been Bubbad or not. The vehicles I have to move quickly, or sleep in them . It's couch time when I head out with my tow bar no matter what. PAX
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Old 02-12-2017, 6:35 PM
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At some point in the next 20 years or so what happens to my C&R arms won't be my concern since my kids will be struck with them! In the meantime I told myself to shoot the heck out of them and enjoy them while I can.

The quality arms will continue to increase in price and the bottom feeder arms will always be entry level even as all prices eventually increase.

All that is needed is the next 'Saving Private Ryan' or 'Enemy at the Gate' to generate a buying frenzy for a class of C&R arms.
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Old 02-12-2017, 6:39 PM
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I've been sitting on the bleachers thru all this and will only say...Quality guns will always fetch quality prices.
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Old 02-12-2017, 6:42 PM
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What about the theory that since semi auto rifles are always under attack by the state, and most likely will be harder and harder to own, bolt action rifles will sky rocket in value and popularity?
I have heard many guys say that they are getting rid of their AR's and looking at all kinds of bolt action including old military guns.
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Old 02-12-2017, 6:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capybara View Post
Hi all:

I have been reading and thinking, including the thread here on the Santa Barbara Historical Arms Show, that it is a distinct possibility that in a few years, it's entirely possible that C&R gun prices may drop. A lot. Think about it, the population at most C&R shops, shows, on the CMP forum and like-minded boards is aging. Most people of the gun under age 45 don't even know what a C&R is, much less have an interest in collecting them and shooting them like we do. Non standard, rare calibers, after Prop 63 goes into effect, will become even more difficult to obtain for the average shooter. I keep buying C&Rs from a collection where a C&R guy died and his wife keeps selling the guns off on consignment.
To some degree, this has already been seen with Lugers; in the past 10 years, a large amount of exceptional examples came out of the woodworks, more so than any I had seen in the previous 30 years to that. The internet has helped facilitate availability by 1000-fold, as it has with ALL collectibles.

However, with guns, there is one niggling exception that other collectibles don't suffer; when a person dies that may have had a decent fine-arts, antique-toy, tool, or baseball-card/comic-book collection, nobody is taking them to the police to be destroyed.

Such people often are conflicted or puzzled about what to do with the firearms, and do not want to be associated with "tools of death" (heard this very phrase once by an heir to a firearm collection).

The useless, ignorant grandkids spawned by their leftist children, aren't waiting to take the Matisse or Chagall to the "Fine Arts Buy Back" for a $200 gift card.

So unlike many other collectibles, guns have a faster liquidating availability in numbers than many other things. Sure, the local police station might recognize the value of a Luger, pre-64 Winchester lever action, or Colt Python/1911, but would they have any idea of the value of a Semmerling, Colt Viper, K43, Garand M1C, or S&W Registered Magnums if they had one in their hand?

Not likely.

We live in a time as you observed that just as so many of the greatest generation are dying off and their guns are apt to change hands, their spouses and Stalinist-by-fashion kin will see to it that the guns are destroyed.

It's a 50/50 proposition, but still reduces the numbers and governs ubiquitousness. By example....


Family Plans to Destroy $5 million Inheritance in Pacific Palisades

http://abc7news.com/1396067/

Quote:
Tuesday, June 21, 2016 / PACIFIC PALISADES, LOS ANGELES:

Los Angeles police uncovered a stockpile of weapons worth millions of dollars following a mysterious man's death in Pacific Palisades.

Authorities said the body of 60-year-old Jeffrey Lash was found in an SUV in June of 2015. An autopsy said he died of natural causes.

Before he died, police said Lash stockpiled more than 1,500 guns, 6.5 tons of ammunition, nearly $250,000 cash and more than a dozen survivalist-type vehicles he would never use.

Lash left no will, so his only relatives, his estranged cousins, would inherit his fortune worth approximately $5 million, according to Daniel Brookman, the attorney for the heirs.

But Brookman said the heirs would reject the inheritance to send a message against gun violence.

"We don't want it. We don't want money from these weapons. We don't want these weapons out there. We want them destroyed," Brookman said.
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What compelling interest has any level of government in knowing what guns are owned by civilians? (Those owned by government should be inventoried and tracked, for exactly the same reasons computers and desks and chairs are tracked: responsible care of public property.)

If some level of government had that information, what would they do with it? How would having that info benefit public safety? How would it benefit law enforcement?

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Old 02-12-2017, 6:58 PM
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Originally Posted by SVT-40 View Post
I remember post 1986, when the flood of new imports came into the US...., Many were predicting a crash of C&R prices... If anything it actually increased prices... Some pieces did suffer a bit of a down turn, but they made that up in a few years...

There are only a few caches of undiscovered or un-imported rifles left...Even if Canadian rifles were to be imported that would only last a few months....Then prices would bounce back...If they took a hit at all...

Look at the prices Classic is getting...It's just mind boggling...But at the end of the day people paid those prices...

Bottom line if you like collecting these guns, do it for the pleasure , and don't think about it being an investment...

As Bobby said above always have money in your pocket, because you never know what is going to pop up...
And If you snooze you loose.
Don't set it down or walk away. If you like it buy it!!!

And always buy quality!!!

All true.
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Originally Posted by Librarian View Post
What compelling interest has any level of government in knowing what guns are owned by civilians? (Those owned by government should be inventoried and tracked, for exactly the same reasons computers and desks and chairs are tracked: responsible care of public property.)

If some level of government had that information, what would they do with it? How would having that info benefit public safety? How would it benefit law enforcement?
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Old 02-12-2017, 7:20 PM
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All the C&R guns I've been looking at are going up and I see no down turn in price. Then again I look at guns that are not milsurp.

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Old 02-12-2017, 7:47 PM
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When this subject comes up I often hear something along the lines of "Buy for enjoyment, not for investment."

My genuine question is, why not both?

Is buying as an investment frowned upon because it is assumed those pieces are stashed away in a safe never to be fired?

Too much risk? Wouldn't think that would be it as the general consensus is values go up.

I am a purveyor of vintage bass equipment as well as C&R and stick with the same philosophy for tube amps as I do for rifles.

A.) Buy stuff I think is cool

B.) Buy stuff for less than I could sell it for if I had to

C.) Take advantage of package deals

D.) Sell off "place holders" for upgrades of what I really like

E.) Take good care of what I've got while I have it

F.) Have fun using it

I have some tube amps, effects pedals, speaker cabinets and guns that are worth anywhere from double to quadruple what I paid originally. They've all fit the above criteria AND are what I consider to be good investments

Of course I don't put all my eggs in one basket and I'm certainly a novice when it comes to C&R so what say the pros here?

Why not buy for fun AND investment?
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Old 02-12-2017, 7:55 PM
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I'm in my late thirties and have been collecting since I turned 21. My collection stands at about 70% C&R to 30% modern. I had to put some of my C&R wants aside due to the 2017 regulations and buy some modern stuff I wanted. C&R prices have been going up since I started. My first rifle was a $50 VZ-24 from Big 5.

My 16 year old son loves to shoot my older guns, maybe because that is most of what he has shot, there is some hope for the younger generation.
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Old 02-12-2017, 8:20 PM
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There are currently the same amount of baby boomers as there are Millenials however what's the percentage of Millenials that are collectors of Milsurps vs Baby Boomers?

In 10 years there will be twice as many Millenials and Gen Xers combined than Baby Boomers. For arguments sake lets say the number of Millenial and Gen X collectors combined equal the number of Baby Boomer collectors.

When Milsurps were flowing in the early 1990s they could be bought at $30-300 a piece. That's equivalent of $52-525 in today's dollars. The unsustainable prices come into play when the Baby Boomers start selling at current values of $250-$2,500 or 5x the price they were bought at. In essence you would need 5 collectors for every Baby Boomer Collector just to maintain the status quo with prices. This of course assumes the collections of Baby Boomers will all start coming up for sale around the same time. Even if half come up for sale at the same time you still need there to be a higher percentage of collectors in the younger generations to maintain current prices.

The vast majority of the rifles imported are still here. If import restrictions loosen and new imports start coming in there will need to be that much more demand to maintain the status quo with prices. Personally I don't think there are half the number of collectors amongst the younger generations as there is amongst baby boomers. Also it needs to be factored in that many firearms owners today are not buying a Milsurp to hunt with as they did years ago. Also the increase in popularity of Black Rifles takes money away from Milsurp spending and collecting. The most important factor is younger people don't have as much savings and disposable income as baby boomers did and do.

I just do not see prices being able to continue the upward trend that they are currently on. This recent jump in prices and interest reminds me of other bubbles that burst. I think a lot of new Milsurp "Collectors" are really amateur investors who think they are going to buy a RC Mauser today at $700 and in a couple years flip it for $1,000. I've read from more than one new collector how they are buying the rifles for their kids future. These same people are often the buyers on gunbroker who pay $1,200 for a Tikka 91/30 Round Receiver because it is slightly less rare than a Hex Receiver. Or they jumped on every piece of junk Classic listed regardless of what the price was because in their minds it will eventually be worth more than what they paid. It's the same mentally that caused most bubbles to burst.

When large collections start being sold off and many of the same rifle are sitting unsold sellers will naturally drop their prices til they sell. Each time a couple drop their price a new lower price point is set.

I've seen more than a few collections of old timers. 200 rifles is what they have in their bedroom. I was at one of their houses around Christmas. Collector is in mid 70s. He had over 700 Mosins. Most of them Finns. Over 50 Finnish M/28-76 Target Rifles. I'm sure many of you have seen JPS collection that he is beginning to sell off. I don't know how many firearms he has but it is a lot. These collectors are not necessarily the exception. There are many of them who have 700+ Rifles and I would say most of them have over 200. I hope I am wrong because I will one day be selling my collection and I would be ecstatic if prices continue to rise.

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Old 02-12-2017, 8:44 PM
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Everyone has some valid speculations however its not always so simple.

Theres a situation on Gunboards where an old time collector / Nam vet was slowly selling off his collection.

This gentleman ends up passing away recently while he had for sale threads up / firearms boxed up and incoming money orders.

Long story short, his extended family ransacked his firearms and his home was burglarized with almost everything being taken.

You never know whats going to happen.
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Old 02-12-2017, 8:52 PM
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So all of this talk about huge collections being sold. Let me ask those of you with a sizeable collection, where do you see your mulsurps going after you pass? Do you have heirs lined up? I'm young so no kids yet, but I plan on raising my future children to appreciate weapons and hopefully they will keep them in the family.

If any of you don't have heirs, I am open to adoption. I am one millennial that surely appreciates these classic rifles.
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Old 02-13-2017, 12:02 AM
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I have a small family that I mainly dislike and no heirs. I plan on leaving the majority of my estate to the NRA. No children, never been married. I doubt I'll have children. Almost got married once not sure if I'll be open to that again.

Leaves me a lot more disposable income than most people my age and I enjoy spending it as wisely as possible on guns.
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Old 02-13-2017, 4:36 AM
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I have a small family that I mainly dislike and no heirs. I plan on leaving the majority of my estate to the NRA.
I you go before me, keep me in mind for your commie ammo. My boys like to shoot MY ammo. PAX
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