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  #1  
Old 08-15-2018, 1:52 PM
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Default Metals and Crypto in Collapse

Is deflation rounding the corner? If metals are in such decline, stocks seem ready to fall on any bad earnings report or Trump innuendo, and cyrptos also in collapse is it all deflationary.
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Old 08-22-2018, 10:16 PM
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Old 08-22-2018, 10:38 PM
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I think inflation has a far greater chance of occurring.
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Old 09-08-2018, 3:19 AM
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Round and round it goes...
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Old 09-08-2018, 8:56 AM
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspi.../#1f47d1fd19b2

The things I like about bitcoin/crypto currency is the freedom it represents to the possessor/owners as well as portability and the concept of an open ledger. Private transactions between people/businesses that don't require financial institutions and govt getting in the way is true economic freedom. Taxes/fees/regulations play a smaller part (in theory) and makes it much less value controllable by a single country or financial entity. IMF, Fed, BOE??

It is however dependent on electricity and a working broadband infrastructure. So a large scale disaster would make it obsolete for the duration sans electricity so...

I'm still learning how this all works and I have trust issues with it, but I'm open to the whole concept.
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Last edited by FeuerFrei; 09-08-2018 at 3:29 PM.. Reason: Flag!!! oveuse of the word "still" 15yd penalty
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Old 09-24-2018, 9:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chsk9 View Post
I think inflation has a far greater chance of occurring.


Inflation is already occurring. And dramatically so. But you have to know what inflation is, and it isn’t rising prices. Inflation is artificial expansion of the money supply. Just take a look at growth of M2. Or take a look at bank excess reserves. Rising prices are just a result of inflation. In fact, inflation is actually the declining value of the dollar. That is all. The effects of inflation are many, and varied. And often hard to see.

Then there’s asset inflation, which is tied to monetary inflation. But that’s another issue.

As for the price of metals, it means nothing. You won’t be selling the metal, you’ll be using it for exchange. As for crypto currencies, the key word is currency. They aren’t money. Not in any sense. They are useless. Reality is you want specie, something real, tangible, and valuable. Bits and bytes are not even real.


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Old 09-25-2018, 7:02 AM
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Cryptos were "created" to give individuals the illusion of being able to trade and pay for goods with electronic money anonymously. The fact is the govt, the fed and banksters are pushing hard to get us out of using cash and into crypto curriencies, to better control, monitor and tax all transactions. We will eventually be forced through another economic shock to accept cryptos as money, it's the only way to do away with a cash society.

In reality, cryptos are worthless bits of 0 & 1 on a computer screen that can disappear, be seized, manipulated or denied access to at the push of a button. You have absolutely no control in any type of emergency, real or created. IMHO, cryptos are a speculative ponzi scheme that have absolutely no value and I would treat them like Monopoly money.
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Old 09-25-2018, 7:09 AM
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BTW, the Fed is pushing hard to cause inflation in the US dollar because they're scared to death of deflation. The fact is we will experience a deflationary period followed by inflation, followed by hyperinflation and you can clearly see the pattern developing.

I do believe that metals are a good storage of wealth when the SHTF because as everything declines in value, the only item not in a bubble are precious metals. There is a tremendous reset coming around the world, our debt has guaranteed our economic destruction and when it hits, it's gonna be ugly.
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Old 09-25-2018, 7:55 AM
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Originally Posted by OCGunFan View Post
The fact is we will experience a deflationary period followed by inflation, followed by hyperinflation and you can clearly see the pattern developing.
Please give us a timeline and more details so we can verify this fact you posit.
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Old 09-25-2018, 9:42 AM
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Metals have always fallen big time when the economy is cooking or really good and rises when its not

Stock market is still rising to record levels and things will only get better. Moderate inflation is a good thing, it keeps things from getting too hot.

We should have a great economy until about the last year of Trumps second term or perhaps a lot longer depending how much he can get done.

Last edited by KevinB; 09-25-2018 at 10:18 AM..
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  #11  
Old 09-27-2018, 9:32 PM
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When the dollar is strong, precious metals drop and vice versa
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Old 09-28-2018, 6:12 AM
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Quote:
Bits and bytes are not even real.
Quote:
In reality, cryptos are worthless bits of 0 & 1 on a computer screen
Are y'all being serious?

Crash detected. Deploy airbags? (true/false: 1/0)
Investment account. Allow access? (true/false: 1/0)
Elevator acceleration out of bounds. Apply emergency brakes? (true/false: 1/0)
John Doe. Convicted murderer or upstanding citizen? (etc etc)

There are plenty of reasons not to invest in cryptos but "zeros and ones not being real" isn't one of them.

The digital / information revolution defines this age in history. To pretend otherwise is what is unreal.
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Old 09-28-2018, 6:34 AM
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Originally Posted by God Bless America View Post
Please give us a timeline and more details so we can verify this fact you posit.
Ohhh come on, CNN reported it, so it must be true!!!!
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  #14  
Old 09-28-2018, 6:40 AM
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Meanwhile my Beanie Baby collection is holding steady.
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  #15  
Old 09-29-2018, 10:39 AM
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Im still waiting on $400 gold. People and institutions just wont let go of them metals.
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Old 09-29-2018, 8:46 PM
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Interesting. I heard of one definition of inflation as lack of production. More dollars chasing less stuff. The other is delation is caused by insufficient excess
cash. Less money chasing more stuff. Our society seems to be drowning in stuff. Excess cash, not so much. TPTB made sure that 'Market Forces" did not apply
to the Casino that the Bankers and Investment Houses were playing in.
The US taxpayers were saddled with the debts of their losses and they came out just fine thank you. So much for the "Invisible Hand" of the 'Market'.
This time the hand was all too visible picking the pocket of the "good faith and credit" of the US Government (aka Taxpayers). Little wonder there is
so little excess cash sloshing around in the 'economy'. The wealthy got bailed out and we got stuck with the bill!. And then they have the huevos to claim the need for "austerity" with the common folk.
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Old 09-30-2018, 1:19 AM
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Default Metals and Crypto in Collapse

Quote:
Originally Posted by justMike View Post
Interesting. I heard of one definition of inflation as lack of production. More dollars chasing less stuff. The other is delation is caused by insufficient excess

cash. Less money chasing more stuff. Our society seems to be drowning in stuff. Excess cash, not so much. TPTB made sure that 'Market Forces" did not apply

to the Casino that the Bankers and Investment Houses were playing in.

The US taxpayers were saddled with the debts of their losses and they came out just fine thank you. So much for the "Invisible Hand" of the 'Market'.

This time the hand was all too visible picking the pocket of the "good faith and credit" of the US Government (aka Taxpayers). Little wonder there is

so little excess cash sloshing around in the 'economy'. The wealthy got bailed out and we got stuck with the bill!. And then they have the huevos to claim the need for "austerity" with the common folk.


Ok, the confusion over inf- and def- lation comes from a basic misunderstanding of, and deceitful presentation of, money. Misunderstanding because we’ve lived with a fiat regime for long enough that most have forgotten, and deceitful because the court economists and Keynesians and communists in our universities are determined to lie and confuse to accomplish their real, nefarious, tyrannical ends.

An understanding of monetary theory is t something that can be covered quickly. But suffice to say this, money is a good with value, that has certain unique characteristics: homogeneity, divisibility, portability, high value to weight ratio, and durability. So a silver coin is marked in unit weight of silver. To wit, the legal definition of a dollar from 1792 until 1965 was “371 grains pure silver or 415 grains standard silver”. Period. A “quarter dollar” was not 25 cents. It was one quarter of one dollar of silver. Dollar being a weight measure, not a price. Dollar meant WEIGHT of silver, not value.

Inflation is simply expansion of fiduciary media, i.e. paper money. Keep in mind the constitution ONLY authorizes coin, and there is explicit bias against paper money. In fact, Madison is so hostile to paper money (he’s the guy who wrote the constitution by the way) that he sees it as the end of the republic. Read federalist 4@ or 42. I’ll have to double check. But anyways, inflation is the diminishing marginal utility of the dollar. It isn’t that things get “more expensive”, it’s that the money loses value. It simply requires more dollars to exchange for the same goods. If you don’t believe me, check the melt value of silver and the price of gas. You’ll notice that silver (which is what our coins were made out of until 1965), exchanges (I didn’t say buy, I said exchange, and for a reason) at a ratio of 5 gallons to one ounce of silver. That’s give or take a small difference, but it’s been that way for about 60 years. Gas should be about $0.21-0.23, give or take. But that’d be if we still had silver quarters, which contain .1808 Troy ounces of silver.

Deflation isn’t ”falling prices”. It’s economic growth outpacing growth of money supply. Like in the second half of the 19th century when there was a gradual decline in prices over time. It was a period of rapid and dynamic economic growth, which drew down prices. “A little inflation” is good in the same way “a little crack” is good.

Inflation and deflation ARE NOT opposites. The former is an act, the latter is a result. To entirely different things.

Keep in mind, fiat money isn’t money. It’s currency. And it’s designed to destroy savings, transfer wealth, empower government, and eventually destroy the republic.

You really don’t understand the banking crisis. And you really don’t understand the “invisible hand”. The banking thing was a cartel, not a market. It was the exact opposite. Weird isn’t it, that you’re lead to believe the banking crisis was a market failure when it wasn’t a market at all. You are being propagandize into thinking it’s a failure of markets so you go to the government to save you, and to distrusting markets. Think about that.

And think about this. Could this have happened with real money? Banks were playing with an unending supply of fake money. And fake money is not market based. Nobody would ever accept worthless paper for valuable goods unless they were compelled to under force of law.


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Old 09-30-2018, 1:55 AM
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Not sure what you mean by PMs, but palladium is slowly gaining on gold. Palladium is a lil above $100 under gold, and a little over $200 above platinum. Silver is slowly, slowly creeping back to $15.
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Old 09-30-2018, 9:32 AM
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rm1911,
While your academic renderings conform with much of my accumulated information, even in the highest academic circles there is much disagreement in the arena of money and 'the economy'. I really don't know where to start.

Another definition of deflation I have encountered is "when the selling price of an item is below the cost of production". This is from the perspective of operating a business. A business can deal with inflation by raising prices. Presumably this is why many are ok with it.

That Gold and Silver are Constitutional money is indisputable. However it is becoming malignantly clear that we are in a post-Constitutional era. Necessarily, unless you desire another Civil War to get back to some idealistic view of righteousness, then we must deal with what we have where we are. I do not believe there is any way to 'get back home' to mythical past purity. It wasn't 'pure' even way back when. Piracy ruled then, and Piracy has never really gone away, no matter how you dress it up in garments of State and diplomacy.

No, maybe I don't really understand the Banking Crisis,or the mystical workings of the invisible hand, but the fact is, it's all visible if you really care to look and pay attention. I personally don't believe the vision of the Federalist Society is very much less totalitarian than the vision of the Corporate Global Elite that seek to take over the world for their profitable private plunder. National sovereignty is being rendered irrelevant unless it serves the purpose of increasing our obligation to the Global Corporate Titans/Banks

I regret going 'off topic' (quite) a bit here, but we all bear the weight of the various Elephants fighting on our grass.

Last edited by justMike; 09-30-2018 at 9:42 AM..
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Old 09-30-2018, 10:16 AM
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Wow! This got sticky in a hurry.

Fiat currency du-jour is only worth what the two trading parties agree it's worth. The govt says it worth "blah", so it's worth "blah". Agreed.

An argument can be made that any fiat currency is only 1's & 0's and transmitted all over the world via secure comms thru financial institutions. Paper notes have no value. They are representations of what the govt regulated financial institutions say they are worth. IMO they are already fake and backed by nothing but words.

Crypto is the same minus the govt regulators (govt controls) and trades are still based on what people agree on what they are worth. ALL bitcoin is the same value everywhere except when you exchange it for paper fiat butt wipe or electrical box slugs.

The value of crypto changes by how the bitcoin market (people) changes and not some arbitrary undecipherable financial algorithm produced by govt/financial institutions.

Fake numbers can produce fake inflation/deflation. Too much of either is bad for the status quo.

Anyhow, that's how I see it.

I'm no finance expert, but the need for more freedom is here and now. This crypto path may be just one way to get more.
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Old 09-30-2018, 11:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justMike View Post
rm1911,
While your academic renderings conform with much of my accumulated information, even in the highest academic circles there is much disagreement in the arena of money and 'the economy'. I really don't know where to start.

Another definition of deflation I have encountered is "when the selling price of an item is below the cost of production". This is from the perspective of operating a business. A business can deal with inflation by raising prices. Presumably this is why many are ok with it.

That Gold and Silver are Constitutional money is indisputable. However it is becoming malignantly clear that we are in a post-Constitutional era. Necessarily, unless you desire another Civil War to get back to some idealistic view of righteousness, then we must deal with what we have where we are. I do not believe there is any way to 'get back home' to mythical past purity. It wasn't 'pure' even way back when. Piracy ruled then, and Piracy has never really gone away, no matter how you dress it up in garments of State and diplomacy.

No, maybe I don't really understand the Banking Crisis,or the mystical workings of the invisible hand, but the fact is, it's all visible if you really care to look and pay attention. I personally don't believe the vision of the Federalist Society is very much less totalitarian than the vision of the Corporate Global Elite that seek to take over the world for their profitable private plunder. National sovereignty is being rendered irrelevant unless it serves the purpose of increasing our obligation to the Global Corporate Titans/Banks

I regret going 'off topic' (quite) a bit here, but we all bear the weight of the various Elephants fighting on our grass.


Actually there isn’t “disagreement” on money, but a rewriting of history. Money isn’t created by government. It emerges through a market process. No economist nor king said “money must be homogeneous and divisible, et al. We need to solve the double coincidence of wants. “. Economists simply described what was and always was.

Money emerged out of barter. Over time a few goods, like salt, emerged as a medium of exchange. Medium meaning middle. So all money does is serve as the third good in any two good transaction. What Adam smith recognized was that goods have value in use and value in exchange. As goods always go to their highest value uses, alternatively their lowest cost uses, there were a few unique goods that while useful, i.e. having value in use, they had greater value in exchange. Salt had great use, but it had unique properties that made it useful in exchange. However, other goods, notably metals, had value in use but extremely high value in exchange. The most fundamental aspect of money is universal acceptance. So, absent force of law, no merchant would accept paper or other worthless items for their valuable goods.

So you have wool and want shoes, I have shoes and want beef. Well, unless you have beef somewhere nearby, we ain’t gonna trade. But if you have metal, all you need is metal and you can buy my shoes and I’ll take metal and buy beef from a butcher who wants a jacket because he can use metal to buy a jacket.

I highly suggest you read about the ancient world, and the debasement of the Roman coin. Good coin was accepted not only across the empire, but across the world. All economists did was chronicle the actual use of a medium of exchange. They didn’t impose their views or make anything up. Metal emerged, it because of, but precisely in spite of, potentate wishes. Real money freed people from the constraints of rule, while the kings money made them slaves.

Real money enable the division of labor and exchange. It and it alone is what creates growth and prosperity. Fiat money destroys wealth and crested terrible inequality and misery. Read about non-neutrality of money.

Deflation is not selling below production costs. That’s simply market forces. It’s prices signaling resource allocation. Keep in mind paper money is often called “fiduciary media”, fid- meaning faithful, meaning currency, or media, you accept on faith.

As for the banking crisis, you have to understand the role of the fed and the federal government. Understand Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. How they were backstopped by the fed and gov’t, how they create the mortgage backed securities and were able to sell shares in them, it’s called moral hazard, because the feds were implicitly guaranteeing the investor would be bailed out. It was entirely a creation of policy.

However, you are entirely correct that for the most part we are living in a post-constitutional era. It is no longer operative. We give it lip service but it’s been dead for some time.


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Old 10-01-2018, 7:27 AM
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Originally Posted by rm1911 View Post
Ok, the confusion over inf- and def- lation comes from a basic misunderstanding of, and deceitful presentation of, money. Misunderstanding because we’ve lived with a fiat regime for long enough that most have forgotten, and deceitful because the court economists and Keynesians and communists in our universities are determined to lie and confuse to accomplish their real, nefarious, tyrannical ends.

An understanding of monetary theory is t something that can be covered quickly. But suffice to say this, money is a good with value, that has certain unique characteristics: homogeneity, divisibility, portability, high value to weight ratio, and durability. So a silver coin is marked in unit weight of silver. To wit, the legal definition of a dollar from 1792 until 1965 was “371 grains pure silver or 415 grains standard silver”. Period. A “quarter dollar” was not 25 cents. It was one quarter of one dollar of silver. Dollar being a weight measure, not a price. Dollar meant WEIGHT of silver, not value.

Inflation is simply expansion of fiduciary media, i.e. paper money. Keep in mind the constitution ONLY authorizes coin, and there is explicit bias against paper money. In fact, Madison is so hostile to paper money (he’s the guy who wrote the constitution by the way) that he sees it as the end of the republic. Read federalist 4@ or 42. I’ll have to double check. But anyways, inflation is the diminishing marginal utility of the dollar. It isn’t that things get “more expensive”, it’s that the money loses value. It simply requires more dollars to exchange for the same goods. If you don’t believe me, check the melt value of silver and the price of gas. You’ll notice that silver (which is what our coins were made out of until 1965), exchanges (I didn’t say buy, I said exchange, and for a reason) at a ratio of 5 gallons to one ounce of silver. That’s give or take a small difference, but it’s been that way for about 60 years. Gas should be about $0.21-0.23, give or take. But that’d be if we still had silver quarters, which contain .1808 Troy ounces of silver.

Deflation isn’t ”falling prices”. It’s economic growth outpacing growth of money supply. Like in the second half of the 19th century when there was a gradual decline in prices over time. It was a period of rapid and dynamic economic growth, which drew down prices. “A little inflation” is good in the same way “a little crack” is good.

Inflation and deflation ARE NOT opposites. The former is an act, the latter is a result. To entirely different things.

Keep in mind, fiat money isn’t money. It’s currency. And it’s designed to destroy savings, transfer wealth, empower government, and eventually destroy the republic.

You really don’t understand the banking crisis. And you really don’t understand the “invisible hand”. The banking thing was a cartel, not a market. It was the exact opposite. Weird isn’t it, that you’re lead to believe the banking crisis was a market failure when it wasn’t a market at all. You are being propagandize into thinking it’s a failure of markets so you go to the government to save you, and to distrusting markets. Think about that.

And think about this. Could this have happened with real money? Banks were playing with an unending supply of fake money. And fake money is not market based. Nobody would ever accept worthless paper for valuable goods unless they were compelled to under force of law.
I just wanted to say I appreciate this write up. Do you have any suggested reading for learning more?
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Old 10-01-2018, 7:46 AM
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I just wanted to say I appreciate this write up. Do you have any suggested reading for learning more?
Start here... https://bitcoin.org/en/
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